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Gold Falls Over 1% as Oil Rises and Strait of Hormuz Fears Reignite

An employee displays gold bars at the Korea Gold Exchange store in Seoul (AFP)
An employee displays gold bars at the Korea Gold Exchange store in Seoul (AFP)
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Gold Falls Over 1% as Oil Rises and Strait of Hormuz Fears Reignite

An employee displays gold bars at the Korea Gold Exchange store in Seoul (AFP)
An employee displays gold bars at the Korea Gold Exchange store in Seoul (AFP)

Gold prices slid more than 1% on Monday as fears of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove oil prices sharply higher, reviving expectations of elevated interest rates to combat inflationary pressures from escalating hostilities in the Middle East.

Spot gold dropped 1.5% to $4,060.49 per ounce by 0735 GMT. US gold futures for August delivery were down 1% at $4,069.50, Reuters reported.

US and Iranian forces have exchanged heavy ⁠missile and drone assaults, ⁠with Tehran targeting US facilities in states across the Gulf on Sunday and saying it had again closed the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices jumped about 4%, the dollar and US Treasury yields climbed, and share markets slipped in Asia.

"Any breakout of violence in the Gulf is accompanied by pressure on gold," said Nicholas Frappell, global head ⁠of institutional markets at ABC Refinery.

"The question is, if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively or partially closed, does that lead to a deflationary effect, further down the road, that might actually be supportive for gold if you have demand destruction leading to lower economic activity," Frappell added.

Kevin Warsh's first semiannual testimony before Congress as Federal Reserve chair, along with a slate of key US economic data, including June CPI, PPI and retail sales, will be closely watched this week for fresh clues on the economy, inflation and the monetary policy outlook.

Remarks from Fed policymakers, ⁠including Vice ⁠Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller, later in the day are also in focus as they could provide insights on how inflationary pressures are affecting the central bank's stance on interest rate hikes.

Traders are currently pricing in a 72% chance of a US Fed interest rate hike in September, up from about 63% last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

COMEX gold speculators trimmed their net long positions by 1,964 contracts to 114,854 in the week to July 7, data released on Friday showed, following three consecutive weeks of increases.

Elsewhere, spot silver declined 2.5% to $58.35 per ounce, platinum shed 0.5% to $1,619.72, and palladium fell 1.5% to $1,257.82.

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Business

S.Korea Flags Record 2027 Budget of Over $530 Billion as AI Chip Boom Lifts Revenues

South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back (R) talks with National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac (C) during the National Fiscal Strategy Meeting, chaired by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, at the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae in Seoul, South Korea, 13 July 2026. EPA/YONHAP
South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back (R) talks with National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac (C) during the National Fiscal Strategy Meeting, chaired by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, at the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae in Seoul, South Korea, 13 July 2026. EPA/YONHAP
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S.Korea Flags Record 2027 Budget of Over $530 Billion as AI Chip Boom Lifts Revenues

South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back (R) talks with National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac (C) during the National Fiscal Strategy Meeting, chaired by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, at the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae in Seoul, South Korea, 13 July 2026. EPA/YONHAP
South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back (R) talks with National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac (C) during the National Fiscal Strategy Meeting, chaired by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, at the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae in Seoul, South Korea, 13 July 2026. EPA/YONHAP

South Korea said on Monday it would draw up record budget spending of more than 800 trillion won ($530.97 billion) for fiscal 2027, supported by stronger tax revenues from the booming AI chip industry.

Budget Minister Park Hong-keun, speaking at a national fiscal strategy meeting, said the spending plan would be financed through higher tax receipts and expenditure cuts. The proposed budget compares with ⁠this year's 727.9 ⁠trillion won spending plan, excluding supplementary budgets.

The government said three "mega-projects" — investments in chips, AI data centers and physical AI — would receive top fiscal priority, adding that it would secure funding capacity through a major restructuring ⁠of existing spending programs, rather than relying solely on increased tax revenue.

President Lee Jae Myung said the government would use all available means to ensure that corporate investments proceed on schedule.

"Additional tax revenue coming at this time is a precious resource to be used at a golden time when global AI dominance will be determined," Lee said.

Budget Minister Park said ⁠the ⁠government would seek to restructure about 50 trillion won in spending, twice the level of the previous year, through a review of discretionary and mandatory expenditures and cuts to underperforming programs.

South Korea plans to launch a Future Response Fund as a strategic investment platform, setting aside tax revenue that exceeds long-term trends and investing it in four areas: youth, growth engines, regions and talent, the government said.

Business

Less than a Month's Supply: Europe's Jet Fuel Stocks are Wafer Thin as Iran Tensions Flare

An Exolum refueling tanker fills an airplane at Almeria airport in Spain, April 19, 2026. REUTERS/Nacho Doce/File Photo
An Exolum refueling tanker fills an airplane at Almeria airport in Spain, April 19, 2026. REUTERS/Nacho Doce/File Photo
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Less than a Month's Supply: Europe's Jet Fuel Stocks are Wafer Thin as Iran Tensions Flare

An Exolum refueling tanker fills an airplane at Almeria airport in Spain, April 19, 2026. REUTERS/Nacho Doce/File Photo
An Exolum refueling tanker fills an airplane at Almeria airport in Spain, April 19, 2026. REUTERS/Nacho Doce/File Photo

Europe has imported jet fuel from the US and Asia, raised its refiners' output and drawn on stocks to keep planes flying – and yet it remains the region most exposed as renewed Middle Eastern tension raises the risk of further supply disruption.

Britain, France and Germany are particularly vulnerable in a continent where decades of refinery closures left it more reliant than most on Middle Eastern shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters said.

The Strait, conduit for around a fifth of the world's seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas until US-Israeli airstrikes unleashed a war on Iran at the end of February, partly reopened in June.

In July, however, a fragile truce has come under threat from strikes by both sides.

Data from consultancy Energy Aspects dated June 18 already anticipates a supply deficit across Europe of nearly 600,000 barrels ‌per day in ‌the third quarter, against surpluses of 116,000 bpd in the United States and 425,000 ‌bpd ⁠in Asia-Pacific.

Inventories stood at ⁠38 million barrels at the start of June, compared with 99 million in the United States, Energy Aspects said. That leaves Europe with less than 30 days of demand cover, Reuters calculations show — the tightest of the major jet fuel markets.

The most recent data available from the International Energy Agency's latest monthly report, showed provisionally jet fuel stocks were 10% higher year-on-year at the end of May, while refinery output rose 30%. The figures also implied only a month of leeway.

"We still do expect some tightness through August at this rate," said Janiv Shah, analyst at Rystad.

The European Commission has also acknowledged the ⁠situation could get worse.

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said in June the bloc faced tighter ‌jet fuel stocks towards the end of the summer holiday season and ‌that Brussels would coordinate releases of national reserves if needed.

CARGOES FROM CANADA TO SOUTH KOREA

Until war broke out at the ‌end of February, Europe had relied on the Middle East for around half of its jet fuel imports.

In March, ‌analysts had expected African countries, which sourced nearly all their jet fuel from the Middle East, to be the hardest hit.

However, they have managed to increased imports from Nigeria's Dangote refinery, as well as India and Oman, according to data from commodities intelligence firm Kpler.

Europe, meanwhile, has so far prevented supplies running out by turning to new sellers, such as Canada.

In June, Europe overall imported ‌673,000 bpd of jet fuel, its highest since October 2025, Kpler data showed.

The US and Nigeria were the biggest exporters to Europe, but Kuwait, Canada, India and ⁠South Korea also provided ⁠cargoes.

Imports from India in June reached their highest since February and nearly 25,000 bpd Kuwaiti barrels are due to arrive in August for the first time since early March through a ship-to-ship transfer on the ship Proteus Harvonne.

Before flows were interrupted, Kuwait was one of the biggest suppliers of jet to the region.

Among those who increased production to ease the strain, Italian refiners increased jet fuel production by 10% in the first four months of the year.

The countries' imports fell 6%, enabling domestic production to meet nearly 70% of demand in March and April, according to UNEM, Italy's fuel producers' association.

Eni, which accounts for around half of Italy's jet fuel production capacity, boosted output by importing semi-finished products from outside Europe, industry sources said.

Jet fuel prices in northwest Europe meanwhile have fallen to around $133.27 a barrel from a record $215.32 at the end of March, easing pressure on airlines. Fuel typically accounts for between 20% and 25% of operating costs.

Immediate discounts to air ticket prices are unlikely, analysts say, as demand is strong and capacity is limited, especially after many carriers cut flights to maximize fuel supplies.

Business

Oil Jumps 4% as New Military Strikes Threaten Hormuz Shipments

FILE PHOTO: Crude oil storage, a part of the United States' strategic oil reserve, is pictured in the Permian Basin oil field near Midland, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Crude oil storage, a part of the United States' strategic oil reserve, is pictured in the Permian Basin oil field near Midland, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
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Oil Jumps 4% as New Military Strikes Threaten Hormuz Shipments

FILE PHOTO: Crude oil storage, a part of the United States' strategic oil reserve, is pictured in the Permian Basin oil field near Midland, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Crude oil storage, a part of the United States' strategic oil reserve, is pictured in the Permian Basin oil field near Midland, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo

Oil prices surged over 4% on Monday as energy shipments via the Strait of Hormuz remained under threat, with the US and Iran announcing renewed military strikes.

Brent crude futures climbed $3.10, or 4.08%, to $79.11 by 0325 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.95, or 4.11%, to $74.36 a barrel, Reuters reported.

US forces completed another wave of strikes against Iran on Sunday, hitting dozens of targets at multiple locations with precision munitions, the Central Command said. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Monday they ⁠attacked US military bases ⁠in Kuwait and Bahrain.

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic, although Iran declared earlier that it closed the strait after a vessel traveled on an unapproved route and was struck.

Some 20% of the world's oil and liquefied ⁠natural gas transited the strait before the war began at the end of February.

Six vessels transited the strait on Sunday, ship-tracking data from Kpler showed, the lowest number in five weeks.

The escalating attacks cast further doubt on the future of an interim US-Iranian agreement signed last month that aimed to reopen the strait and end the war after a further 60 days of negotiations.

Following the agreement, global oil supply rose by 4.1 million barrels per day in June, but remained ⁠9.4 million ⁠bpd below pre-war levels, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report on Friday.

"Hopes of a relatively quick resolution to the recent skirmishes may be in doubt after tension escalated over the weekend," ANZ analysts said in a note.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said the relatively tame rise in oil prices suggested the market was taking the view that the current flare-up represented an escalation within a fragile truce and fell well short of a complete collapse of the ceasefire.

"How accurate that view is remains to be seen," he said in a note.