Sudan’s War Economy Sends Pound into Freefall

Army Commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan stated that the high cost of living is 'part of the battle' and pledged to emerge victorious (AFP).
Army Commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan stated that the high cost of living is 'part of the battle' and pledged to emerge victorious (AFP).
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Sudan’s War Economy Sends Pound into Freefall

Army Commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan stated that the high cost of living is 'part of the battle' and pledged to emerge victorious (AFP).
Army Commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan stated that the high cost of living is 'part of the battle' and pledged to emerge victorious (AFP).

Sudan has entered a new phase of economic turmoil after its currency, the pound, fell sharply against foreign currencies, with the dollar trading above 9,000 pounds in some parallel-market transactions in recent days.

The pound later temporarily recovered some of its losses, but severe volatility disrupted markets, prompting some traders to suspend sales and close their shops.

Exchange-rate movements illustrate the scale of the deterioration. The dollar, which traded at about 4,400 pounds on the parallel market in June, surged to more than 9,000 pounds at the height of this month’s September turmoil.

The number of pounds needed to buy one dollar has nearly doubled in about three months.

Rates quoted by several banks remained far below those on the parallel market, reflecting a widening gap between the official banking rate and the price at which traders obtain foreign currency outside the banking system.

After a limited improvement on Friday, the dollar again rose above 8,000 pounds on Saturday amid a shortage of US currency in banks.

Sovereign Council Chairman and army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan directly linked the economic crisis to the war.

“The battle has taken many forms,” Burhan said after Friday prayers in Khartoum’s Burri district. He described the economic crisis, rising prices and scarcity of resources as “part of this battle” and pledged that Sudan would emerge “victorious, just as we drove the rebellion out of Khartoum and other cities.”

Exchange-rate, market and gold-production figures suggest that the “economic battle” is more complicated than controlling currency speculators. It involves the wartime economy, shortages of foreign currency, declining production, foreign-trade imbalances and gold smuggling.

Prices surge

The pound’s depreciation is having a direct effect on people’s lives.

During a tour of markets in Khartoum and Wad Madani on Sept. 18, local broadcaster Radio Tamazuj reported that the price of a 50-kg sack of sugar had risen to 470,000 pounds from 380,000 pounds, an increase of about 24%.

A sack of flour climbed to 120,000 pounds from 80,000 pounds, an increase of about 50%.

The broadcaster said most of the shops visited during the tour were closed. Traders had stopped selling because prices were changing so rapidly that they could not determine how much it would cost to replace the goods they sold.

Closures spread to other cities. Local reports from Atbara in River Nile state said that a growing number of shops had closed and traders were refusing to sell. Reports from Duwaim said about three-quarters of shops had closed, citing local traders.

In Tamboul in Gezira state, activists circulated a local account describing the city’s market as almost at a standstill, with shops closed and goods scarce.

The account put the price of a 50-kg sack of sugar at 600,000 pounds, a sack of sorghum at 500,000 pounds, a 36-pound container of cooking oil at 400,000 pounds and a sack of flour at 150,000 pounds.

The prices could not be independently verified, nor could it be confirmed whether the closures affected the entire market.

The crisis is reflected in the experience of grocery store owner Ibrahim Idris, who said his capital was no longer sufficient to stock the range and quantities of goods he had previously sold.

Idris said the price of a 36-pound container of cooking oil had risen to nearly 350,000 pounds from about 170,000 pounds over the past month, more than doubling.

Customers were buying smaller quantities, he said, while increasing numbers were asking to purchase goods on credit.

Nahla Khalifa, a homemaker from Omdurman, previously told Asharq Al-Awsat that her family had often gone without meat, milk and vegetables, while obtaining medication for her husband, who has diabetes, had become increasingly difficult.

Osman al-Jundi, a supervisor of community kitchens, or takayas, in Khartoum, told Asharq Al-Awsat days before the sharp currency decline that falling donations, rising prices and the pound’s depreciation had forced several free kitchens to close.

Only two kitchens in his area were still operating daily, he said, even as the number of people in need continued to grow. They included displaced people from Kordofan, as well as children, women, older people and people with disabilities.

 

The Sudanese pound continues its slide to a record low against the dollar (Reuters)

 

Gold production declines

The sharpest contradiction emerges in Sudan’s gold sector.

According to data from the Sudanese Mineral Resources Company, recorded gold production exceeded 70.15 metric tons in 2025. That included about 58.38 tons from traditional mining, roughly 5.68 tons from mining-waste processing companies and about 5.96 tons from concession companies.

However, the amount of gold entering official export channels was far below recorded production.

Data attributed to the Central Bank of Sudan showed that about 14.7 tons of gold, worth nearly $1.54 billion, were exported in 2025. In a separate estimate, the finance minister said about 20 tons had entered official channels.

The difference cannot be treated entirely as smuggled gold because of existing stockpiles, domestic consumption and trade, as well as differences in how the data are calculated. It nevertheless reveals a substantial gap between recorded production and the amount appearing in official exports.

An official at the Sudanese Mineral Resources Company previously estimated that about 48% of the country’s 2024 gold production had been smuggled, depriving the banking system of a significant source of foreign currency.

Gold is also intertwined with the war. A study by the Chatham House think tank said both sides in the conflict had benefited from the gold economy and its production and trading networks, although through different methods and in different areas of influence.

The study linked gold-sector revenues to the warring parties’ ability to finance operations and obtain resources, weapons and supplies.

That does not mean all proceeds from official gold exports are used for military spending. The state also uses foreign currency to finance imports of fuel, wheat and other goods and necessities.

A further contradiction has emerged within the gold sector itself.

Twenty-three mining companies have threatened to begin gradually suspending production on Sept. 30 and halt it entirely on Oct. 1 in protest against the Central Bank of Sudan’s mechanism for purchasing gold.

The companies say they produce about 17% of the country’s gold and that the central bank’s purchase price does not cover rising fuel, transportation, wage and operating costs caused by the pound’s depreciation.

The distortions extend beyond the gold market.

While the dollar rose above 9,000 pounds in some transactions in government-controlled areas, it traded at about 4,600 pounds in cash in Nyala. Its price through transfers using the Bankak banking application reached about 6,500 pounds.

The cash price of the dollar in Nyala was, therefore, at roughly the same time, about half the rate recorded in some markets in government-controlled territory.

That does not mean the economy in areas controlled by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces is stronger.

Experts and traders attribute much of the difference to the shortage of banknotes, or cash liquidity, in Darfur, as well as different trade routes and foreign-currency flows. Markets in western Sudan are also linked to Chad, Libya and South Sudan.

The difference within Nyala itself — 4,600 pounds in cash versus 6,500 pounds via bank transfer — illustrates the distortions created by the liquidity crisis.

Seeking solutions

As the pound’s decline accelerated, the National Committee for Economic Management, headed by Prime Minister Kamil Idris, formed a committee led by Finance Minister Gibril Ibrahim to address the exchange-rate crisis.

The announced measures include increasing agricultural, livestock and mining production; encouraging manufacturing and exports; reducing imports; regulating the gold trade and combating smuggling; requiring exporters to repatriate export proceeds; and confronting currency speculation and foreign-exchange trading outside official channels.

But the figures present those measures with a clear test.

The dollar has risen above 9,000 pounds despite previous interventions. Gold production has exceeded 70 tons, yet far smaller quantities have appeared in official exports. Companies producing 17% of the country’s gold are threatening to halt operations, while shops have closed because traders can no longer set stable prices for their goods.

The contradiction between Burhan’s pledge to prevail in the “economic battle” and the economic data is stark: Sudan produces more than 70 tons of gold annually but suffers from a shortage of foreign currency.

The dollar trades above 9,000 pounds in one market and at about 4,600 in another, while flour prices in some markets rose by 50% during the latest bout of volatility.

For Sudanese people, the question is therefore no longer merely when the dollar will fall. It is how much real value the pound retains — and how much food and medicine it will be able to buy the following day.

 



Saudi Arabia Offers 100% Social Insurance Debt Waiver to Businesses That Have Exited Market

Officials from the General Organization for Social Insurance at an earlier meeting with businessmen and businesswomen at the Riyadh Chamber (SPA)
Officials from the General Organization for Social Insurance at an earlier meeting with businessmen and businesswomen at the Riyadh Chamber (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia Offers 100% Social Insurance Debt Waiver to Businesses That Have Exited Market

Officials from the General Organization for Social Insurance at an earlier meeting with businessmen and businesswomen at the Riyadh Chamber (SPA)
Officials from the General Organization for Social Insurance at an earlier meeting with businessmen and businesswomen at the Riyadh Chamber (SPA)

Saudi Arabia's General Organization for Social Insurance (GOSI) has made businesses that have ceased operations and exited the Saudi market eligible for a 100% waiver of outstanding social insurance debts, subject to approved conditions, Asharq Al-Awsat has learned.

The move aims to address accumulated financial obligations, help businesses settle their accounts and close outstanding cases, and support stability in the Kingdom's private sector while resolving financial difficulties faced by companies that have left the market.

The measure is part of a broader package of improvements GOSI is implementing to enhance services for employers and businesses, in response to feedback and suggestions gathered during direct meetings with officials and business owners, in cooperation with chambers of commerce.

Taking Economic Conditions into Account

The initiative has economic and regulatory implications beyond debt relief, seeking to address financial and administrative liabilities left behind by businesses that have exited the market and facilitate the formal closure of their records in accordance with regulations.

Its main significance lies in striking a balance between protecting the rights of the social insurance system and its contributors, on the one hand, and taking into account the economic circumstances of businesses that have ceased operations, on the other.

It also reinforces regulatory flexibility in the business environment, ensuring that accumulated obligations do not become a permanent obstacle to the settlement of financial and administrative affairs.

Enhancing Market Attractiveness

The initiative reflects a more flexible approach to dealing with business distress, focusing on resolving outstanding liabilities rather than allowing them to remain a continuing burden on business owners.

This approach is expected to strengthen confidence in regulatory procedures and enhance the attractiveness of Saudi Arabia's business environment.

The move is particularly significant given the changing nature of the business sector, with new companies entering the market each year while others cease operations because of competition, rising costs, or shifting market conditions.

Settling the social insurance accounts of businesses that have exited the market could ease the administrative and financial burden on their owners, help them reorganize their financial affairs and potentially pave the way for a return to commercial activity in the future, without old liabilities remaining an obstacle, subject to applicable regulations.

According to information obtained by Asharq Al-Awsat, GOSI has notified all companies and establishments of improvements introduced to its business services, including the debt waiver.

The measure is designed to enable businesses that have ceased operations to resolve their outstanding social insurance obligations and complete the regulatory procedures associated with closing their operations, easing the financial burden on owners whose businesses are no longer active.

Service Improvements

In a related development, GOSI's improvements include upgrades to services for registering businesses, terminating their activities and managing ownership records, alongside efforts to resolve recurring technical problems and improve the quality of digital services.

The changes are intended to improve the user experience and accelerate transaction processing.

GOSI has also expanded electronic payment options through its GOSI Business app, allowing employers to pay amounts exceeding 30,000 Saudi riyals ($8,000) in multiple installments.

The measure aims to make it easier for businesses to meet their financial obligations while providing greater payment flexibility.

The updates also include measures to increase transparency in transaction processing by clarifying the reasons for rejecting occupational injury claims and contributor-related transactions.

Notifications have also been introduced through the GOSI Business and Tawakkalna apps to inform users when applications are received, accepted, returned, or rejected.

Together, the improvements reflect GOSI's efforts to modernize its digital services, simplify procedures for employers and improve the management of social insurance obligations.

The measures are also intended to support the business environment and help resolve outstanding financial and administrative matters involving businesses.


From Aramco's Profits to State Budget Revenue: How Do Oil Proceeds Reach Government Coffers?

A general view shows Ras Tanura's oil production plant near Dammam in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province (AFP)
A general view shows Ras Tanura's oil production plant near Dammam in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province (AFP)
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From Aramco's Profits to State Budget Revenue: How Do Oil Proceeds Reach Government Coffers?

A general view shows Ras Tanura's oil production plant near Dammam in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province (AFP)
A general view shows Ras Tanura's oil production plant near Dammam in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province (AFP)

Saudi Aramco's financial results and Saudi Arabia's third-quarter budget performance report, released on the same day, revealed a divergence between the company's rising profits and declining government oil revenue recorded in the state budget.

While Aramco's net income rose 34.2% during the first nine months of 2026 to SAR 380.6 billion ($101.5 billion), government oil revenue fell 1.3% over the same period and declined approximately 23% in the third quarter alone.

Comparing the two indicators does not necessarily imply a direct relationship between the company's profits and the revenue flowing into government coffers. Corporate earnings are recognized under different accounting principles from those governing the calculation and collection of government revenue.

The financial relationship between Aramco and the government also involves multiple channels, including taxes, royalties, dividends and offsetting settlements, each with its own payment and collection schedule.

Aramco's Profits and Cash Flows

Aramco reported net income of SAR 380.6 billion ($101.5 billion) for the first nine months of 2026, compared with SAR 283.6 billion ($75.6 billion) in the corresponding period last year, an increase of 34.2%.

Adjusted net income reached SAR 368.9 billion ($98.4 billion), up from SAR 302.3 billion ($80.6 billion) a year earlier.

However, the increase in earnings was not accompanied by a comparable rise in cash generated by the company's operations, according to its financial report.

Cash flow from operating activities totaled SAR 355.8 billion ($94.9 billion), compared with SAR 357.6 billion ($95.4 billion) in the same period last year, remaining largely unchanged.

Aramco attributed this to changes in working capital, which refers to funds tied up in day-to-day operations, including outstanding sales receivables, inventories and amounts owed to or by the company.

These movements limited the extent to which higher earnings translated into operating cash flow.

Meanwhile, free cash flow increased to SAR 221.6 billion ($59.1 billion), compared with SAR 217.3 billion ($57.9 billion) a year earlier.

This metric measures the cash remaining after capital expenditures are deducted from operating cash flow. It benefited from a reduction in capital expenditures to SAR 134.2 billion ($35.8 billion), from SAR 140.3 billion ($37.4 billion) in the comparable period.

Oil Revenue in the State Budget

On the other side of the equation, Aramco's earnings growth was not mirrored by a corresponding increase in government oil revenue.

Ministry of Finance data showed that oil revenue fell 23% year on year in the third quarter to SAR 116.5 billion ($31.1 billion), compared with SAR 150.8 billion ($40.2 billion) in the same period last year.

Over the first nine months of 2026, oil revenue totaled SAR 446.3 billion ($119 billion), down from SAR 452.4 billion ($120.6 billion) in the corresponding period of 2025, representing a relatively modest decline of approximately 1.3%.

By contrast, non-oil revenue increased 8% during the nine-month period to SAR 412.5 billion ($110 billion), helping lift total budget revenue by 3% to SAR 858.9 billion ($229 billion).

In the third quarter alone, non-oil revenue rose 20% to SAR 142.6 billion ($38 billion).

The growth in non-oil revenue therefore helped cushion the impact of declining oil revenue on the government's overall income.

Third-quarter expenditure totaled SAR 343.4 billion ($91.6 billion), against revenue of SAR 259.1 billion ($69.1 billion), resulting in a quarterly budget deficit of approximately SAR 84.3 billion ($22.5 billion).

Why Don't the Figures Move in the Same Direction?

Part of the divergence between Aramco's financial results and government budget revenue stems from the different nature of the figures themselves.

The company's profits are recognized according to its accounting results, while budget figures reflect government revenue actually collected during the reporting period.

Moreover, the government's financial returns from Aramco's operations flow through several channels, including taxes, royalties and dividends, with differences in when these amounts become due and when they are paid.

Accounting profits do not necessarily translate into cash inflows during the same period. Liquidity is affected by the timing of receivables collection, inventory movements and operating payments.

This distinction is also evident in financial transactions between Aramco and the government, which are not limited to direct cash payments but include the settlement of certain mutual obligations through offsets.

For example, Aramco's cash income tax payments fell to SAR 2.8 billion (approximately $747 million) in the third quarter, compared with around SAR 51 billion ($13.6 billion) in the second quarter, as amounts due to the company from the government were settled by offsetting them against its tax obligations.

Under this mechanism, amounts owed to one party are deducted from what that party owes the other, rather than transferring the full amount in cash.

Such offsets affect both the volume of cash payments and the timing of financial transfers between Aramco and the government.

Consequently, government oil revenue does not necessarily move in the same direction as Aramco's financial results, since each is influenced by different factors and accounting mechanisms.

While the company's profits reflect its financial performance during a given period, government revenue recorded in the budget depends on the taxes, royalties and dividends due to the state, as well as the timing of their collection and settlement.

Aramco's profits may therefore increase during a period when government oil revenue is declining.

Overall, the results demonstrate Aramco's continued ability to generate strong profits and maintain substantial cash flows, supporting its capacity to sustain investment and distribute dividends to shareholders, foremost among them the Saudi government.

At the same time, growth in non-oil revenue underscores the importance of diversifying budget income sources to mitigate fluctuations in oil revenue, broaden the sources supporting public finances and advance the Kingdom's economic transformation.


Crypto Dips on Democrat Midterm Wins, Binance Hack Dents Optimism

Representation of cryptocurrencies are seen in this illustration taken September 10, 2025. (Reuters)
Representation of cryptocurrencies are seen in this illustration taken September 10, 2025. (Reuters)
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Crypto Dips on Democrat Midterm Wins, Binance Hack Dents Optimism

Representation of cryptocurrencies are seen in this illustration taken September 10, 2025. (Reuters)
Representation of cryptocurrencies are seen in this illustration taken September 10, 2025. (Reuters)

Cryptocurrencies briefly dipped on Wednesday as Democrats won majorities in both the Senate and House in the US midterm elections, a potential blow to an industry that has pushed for faster deregulation for digital assets.

The sector has spent more than $300 million backing crypto-friendly Democrats and Republicans in roughly equal measure during the current and previous election cycles, hoping to pass legislation US crypto companies say will ‌put them on ‌a solid legal footing and allow them to thrive.

Bitcoin ‌briefly ⁠touched a six-week ⁠low before recovering to trade roughly flat by 0715 GMT at $78,070. Ether traded at $2,292, up just 1%.

Bitcoin has fallen by around 41% since hitting record highs above $122,000 in October 2025, bringing the value of the broader crypto market to around $2.61 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

The market has lost some $300 billion in value in the last month alone, as deepening concern about future returns from AI and the ⁠strain of rising borrowing costs pushed investors into less risky ‌assets such as government bonds and ‌safe-haven currencies.

Sentiment has also been hurt by the $6 billion hack of the Binance platform last ‌week, the largest heist in history.

On Tuesday, Binance customers had withdrawn ‌a net $4.72 billion from the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange since it reopened following the hack at the weekend.

"The market may be re-evaluating the risk-reward profile of crypto assets. On one hand, the string of security incidents is forcing investors to re-examine the ‌industry's security infrastructure and custody risks," Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey, said.

"On the other hand, potential shifts in ⁠the US political landscape ⁠could stall the progress of structural crypto legislation and institutional framework development. All of these factors leave the crypto market facing strong headwinds," he said.

US President Donald Trump, who vowed to make the United States the "crypto capital of the world" during his 2024 presidential campaign, has made his own forays into digital assets, with the launch of his "Trump" meme coin, plus his family's World Liberty Financial crypto platform, among other ventures.

The sector has seen sweeping reforms in the almost two years since Trump returned to office, including lighter enforcement and the creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve.

Washington has also allowed for easier access to banking and exchange-traded products and passed a federal stablecoin law that could help these assets move into the mainstream payments and money transfer systems.