Sudan’s War Economy Sends Pound into Freefall

Army Commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan stated that the high cost of living is 'part of the battle' and pledged to emerge victorious (AFP).
Army Commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan stated that the high cost of living is 'part of the battle' and pledged to emerge victorious (AFP).
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Sudan’s War Economy Sends Pound into Freefall

Army Commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan stated that the high cost of living is 'part of the battle' and pledged to emerge victorious (AFP).
Army Commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan stated that the high cost of living is 'part of the battle' and pledged to emerge victorious (AFP).

Sudan has entered a new phase of economic turmoil after its currency, the pound, fell sharply against foreign currencies, with the dollar trading above 9,000 pounds in some parallel-market transactions in recent days.

The pound later temporarily recovered some of its losses, but severe volatility disrupted markets, prompting some traders to suspend sales and close their shops.

Exchange-rate movements illustrate the scale of the deterioration. The dollar, which traded at about 4,400 pounds on the parallel market in June, surged to more than 9,000 pounds at the height of this month’s September turmoil.

The number of pounds needed to buy one dollar has nearly doubled in about three months.

Rates quoted by several banks remained far below those on the parallel market, reflecting a widening gap between the official banking rate and the price at which traders obtain foreign currency outside the banking system.

After a limited improvement on Friday, the dollar again rose above 8,000 pounds on Saturday amid a shortage of US currency in banks.

Sovereign Council Chairman and army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan directly linked the economic crisis to the war.

“The battle has taken many forms,” Burhan said after Friday prayers in Khartoum’s Burri district. He described the economic crisis, rising prices and scarcity of resources as “part of this battle” and pledged that Sudan would emerge “victorious, just as we drove the rebellion out of Khartoum and other cities.”

Exchange-rate, market and gold-production figures suggest that the “economic battle” is more complicated than controlling currency speculators. It involves the wartime economy, shortages of foreign currency, declining production, foreign-trade imbalances and gold smuggling.

Prices surge

The pound’s depreciation is having a direct effect on people’s lives.

During a tour of markets in Khartoum and Wad Madani on Sept. 18, local broadcaster Radio Tamazuj reported that the price of a 50-kg sack of sugar had risen to 470,000 pounds from 380,000 pounds, an increase of about 24%.

A sack of flour climbed to 120,000 pounds from 80,000 pounds, an increase of about 50%.

The broadcaster said most of the shops visited during the tour were closed. Traders had stopped selling because prices were changing so rapidly that they could not determine how much it would cost to replace the goods they sold.

Closures spread to other cities. Local reports from Atbara in River Nile state said that a growing number of shops had closed and traders were refusing to sell. Reports from Duwaim said about three-quarters of shops had closed, citing local traders.

In Tamboul in Gezira state, activists circulated a local account describing the city’s market as almost at a standstill, with shops closed and goods scarce.

The account put the price of a 50-kg sack of sugar at 600,000 pounds, a sack of sorghum at 500,000 pounds, a 36-pound container of cooking oil at 400,000 pounds and a sack of flour at 150,000 pounds.

The prices could not be independently verified, nor could it be confirmed whether the closures affected the entire market.

The crisis is reflected in the experience of grocery store owner Ibrahim Idris, who said his capital was no longer sufficient to stock the range and quantities of goods he had previously sold.

Idris said the price of a 36-pound container of cooking oil had risen to nearly 350,000 pounds from about 170,000 pounds over the past month, more than doubling.

Customers were buying smaller quantities, he said, while increasing numbers were asking to purchase goods on credit.

Nahla Khalifa, a homemaker from Omdurman, previously told Asharq Al-Awsat that her family had often gone without meat, milk and vegetables, while obtaining medication for her husband, who has diabetes, had become increasingly difficult.

Osman al-Jundi, a supervisor of community kitchens, or takayas, in Khartoum, told Asharq Al-Awsat days before the sharp currency decline that falling donations, rising prices and the pound’s depreciation had forced several free kitchens to close.

Only two kitchens in his area were still operating daily, he said, even as the number of people in need continued to grow. They included displaced people from Kordofan, as well as children, women, older people and people with disabilities.

 

The Sudanese pound continues its slide to a record low against the dollar (Reuters)

 

Gold production declines

The sharpest contradiction emerges in Sudan’s gold sector.

According to data from the Sudanese Mineral Resources Company, recorded gold production exceeded 70.15 metric tons in 2025. That included about 58.38 tons from traditional mining, roughly 5.68 tons from mining-waste processing companies and about 5.96 tons from concession companies.

However, the amount of gold entering official export channels was far below recorded production.

Data attributed to the Central Bank of Sudan showed that about 14.7 tons of gold, worth nearly $1.54 billion, were exported in 2025. In a separate estimate, the finance minister said about 20 tons had entered official channels.

The difference cannot be treated entirely as smuggled gold because of existing stockpiles, domestic consumption and trade, as well as differences in how the data are calculated. It nevertheless reveals a substantial gap between recorded production and the amount appearing in official exports.

An official at the Sudanese Mineral Resources Company previously estimated that about 48% of the country’s 2024 gold production had been smuggled, depriving the banking system of a significant source of foreign currency.

Gold is also intertwined with the war. A study by the Chatham House think tank said both sides in the conflict had benefited from the gold economy and its production and trading networks, although through different methods and in different areas of influence.

The study linked gold-sector revenues to the warring parties’ ability to finance operations and obtain resources, weapons and supplies.

That does not mean all proceeds from official gold exports are used for military spending. The state also uses foreign currency to finance imports of fuel, wheat and other goods and necessities.

A further contradiction has emerged within the gold sector itself.

Twenty-three mining companies have threatened to begin gradually suspending production on Sept. 30 and halt it entirely on Oct. 1 in protest against the Central Bank of Sudan’s mechanism for purchasing gold.

The companies say they produce about 17% of the country’s gold and that the central bank’s purchase price does not cover rising fuel, transportation, wage and operating costs caused by the pound’s depreciation.

The distortions extend beyond the gold market.

While the dollar rose above 9,000 pounds in some transactions in government-controlled areas, it traded at about 4,600 pounds in cash in Nyala. Its price through transfers using the Bankak banking application reached about 6,500 pounds.

The cash price of the dollar in Nyala was, therefore, at roughly the same time, about half the rate recorded in some markets in government-controlled territory.

That does not mean the economy in areas controlled by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces is stronger.

Experts and traders attribute much of the difference to the shortage of banknotes, or cash liquidity, in Darfur, as well as different trade routes and foreign-currency flows. Markets in western Sudan are also linked to Chad, Libya and South Sudan.

The difference within Nyala itself — 4,600 pounds in cash versus 6,500 pounds via bank transfer — illustrates the distortions created by the liquidity crisis.

Seeking solutions

As the pound’s decline accelerated, the National Committee for Economic Management, headed by Prime Minister Kamil Idris, formed a committee led by Finance Minister Gibril Ibrahim to address the exchange-rate crisis.

The announced measures include increasing agricultural, livestock and mining production; encouraging manufacturing and exports; reducing imports; regulating the gold trade and combating smuggling; requiring exporters to repatriate export proceeds; and confronting currency speculation and foreign-exchange trading outside official channels.

But the figures present those measures with a clear test.

The dollar has risen above 9,000 pounds despite previous interventions. Gold production has exceeded 70 tons, yet far smaller quantities have appeared in official exports. Companies producing 17% of the country’s gold are threatening to halt operations, while shops have closed because traders can no longer set stable prices for their goods.

The contradiction between Burhan’s pledge to prevail in the “economic battle” and the economic data is stark: Sudan produces more than 70 tons of gold annually but suffers from a shortage of foreign currency.

The dollar trades above 9,000 pounds in one market and at about 4,600 in another, while flour prices in some markets rose by 50% during the latest bout of volatility.

For Sudanese people, the question is therefore no longer merely when the dollar will fall. It is how much real value the pound retains — and how much food and medicine it will be able to buy the following day.

 



Saudi Arabia Drives September Surge in OPEC+ Output Despite Iran War Disruptions

An oil tanker at Ras Al-Khair port, north of Dammam, in 2019. REUTERS
An oil tanker at Ras Al-Khair port, north of Dammam, in 2019. REUTERS
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Saudi Arabia Drives September Surge in OPEC+ Output Despite Iran War Disruptions

An oil tanker at Ras Al-Khair port, north of Dammam, in 2019. REUTERS
An oil tanker at Ras Al-Khair port, north of Dammam, in 2019. REUTERS

OPEC+ crude output surged in September as Saudi Arabia ramped up production, despite continued disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Iran war, OPEC said in its monthly report on Tuesday.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2027 to 2.55 million barrels per day (bpd) from 2.36 million bpd, citing the need to replenish inventories depleted by war-related supply disruptions.

But it cut its demand growth forecast for this year for a sixth straight month, to 180,000 bpd from about 380,000 bpd in its August estimates.

OPEC+, which groups OPEC members and allies including Russia, pumped an average of 39.068 million bpd in September, up 903,000 bpd from 38.165 million bpd in August, the report showed.

Output has risen by about 1.36 million bpd since July, when it stood at 37.710 million bpd, according to the secondary sources OPEC uses to track production.

OPEC members drove the increase, raising output by about 920,000 bpd to 25.097 million bpd from 24.177 million bpd a month earlier. Production by participating non-OPEC countries fell by about 18,000 bpd.

Saudi Arabia leads surge

Saudi Arabia posted the alliance's largest production increase. Output climbed to 8.372 million bpd in September from 6.238 million bpd in August, a gain of more than 2 million bpd, according to figures the kingdom submitted to OPEC.

The increase comes as Saudi Arabia seeks to restore oil flows and strengthen the resilience of its exports against war-related disruptions. Aramco increased oil loadings at Gulf export terminals in September after an attack on the East-West pipeline disrupted shipments through the Red Sea.

Inventory rebuilding to support demand

OPEC expects global oil demand to rise by 2.55 million bpd in 2027 to average 108.3 million bpd, compared with 108.19 million bpd in last month's forecast.

The forecast assumes demand growth in 2026 will slow as currently expected, with the need to replenish depleted inventories supporting growth next year, OPEC said.

For 2026, the group expects demand growth of just 180,000 bpd. It also cut its fourth-quarter demand estimate to 107.73 million bpd from 107.85 million bpd in last month's report.

Demand in countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development is forecast to shrink by about 210,000 bpd this year, while demand in non-OECD economies is expected to grow by 390,000 bpd.

Oil supply from outside OPEC+ is forecast to grow by 640,000 bpd in 2026 and 620,000 bpd in 2027.

Russian output declines

Russian oil output fell by 38,000 bpd in September to 8.643 million bpd, the report showed, amid continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, including refineries.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country would trim oil production this year. Russia's Economy Ministry lowered its 2026 output forecast to a 17-year low amid the war with Ukraine.

Kazakhstan's production rose by 22,000 bpd in September to 1.851 million bpd, according to the OPEC report.


From Hydrogen to AI, Energy Leaders Map the Sector’s Global Future

A panel discussion examines challenges and opportunities at the World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A panel discussion examines challenges and opportunities at the World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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From Hydrogen to AI, Energy Leaders Map the Sector’s Global Future

A panel discussion examines challenges and opportunities at the World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A panel discussion examines challenges and opportunities at the World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Green hydrogen, artificial intelligence and strategic partnerships took center stage at the World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh, as sessions mapped the energy sector’s future amid rapid technological and industrial change.

Progress on clean energy projects, led by the NEOM Green Hydrogen Project, now 96% complete, intersected with the challenge of cutting emissions from transport, which accounts for about 30% of global energy demand.

The discussions highlighted a widening agenda: developing energy sources and reshaping how energy is produced and used to improve efficiency and sustain supplies.

Saudi Aramco said it plans to increase gas sales by 80% by 2030 compared with 2020 and 2021 levels, and to build and start operating six to seven gas and liquefied gas facilities between 2025 and 2027.

Decarbonization

Transport and logistics account for about 30% of global energy demand, Saudi Vice Minister of Transport and Logistics Services Rumaih Al-Rumaih told a conference session.

Decarbonization is a long journey that requires a broader energy mix, he said, stressing the need for available, reliable, affordable and safe supplies.

The Saudi Green Initiative provides a framework for reaching net-zero emissions by 2060, with transport playing a major role, Al-Rumaih said.

Saudi Arabia is expanding public transport and cutting urban emissions to meet its commitments, he added. The Riyadh Metro network spans 187 kilometers and has 85 stations.

Green hydrogen

National Development Fund Governor Abdulaziz Al-Arifi said the fund had provided financing and strategic support for the NEOM Green Hydrogen Project alongside local banks and other entities and organizations.

That support helped advance one of the clean energy sector’s leading projects, strengthening investment opportunities and local content, he told the conference.

ACWA Power Chairman Mohammad Abunayyan said local resources, knowledge and expertise accounted for about 90% of those used in new projects. He reaffirmed the company’s commitment to expanding investment and overcoming challenges on the ground in major global markets such as China.

At the same session, Saudi Aramco Executive Vice President of Gas Abdulkarim Al-Ghamdi discussed operational readiness and supply chains.

Resource localization under the company’s iktva program had reached levels ranging from more than 75% to 90%, he said, offering strong protection against external disruptions.

Saudi personnel and technological integration are the two pillars of sustained gas-sector growth and future resilience, he said.

Artificial intelligence

A panel at the 25th World Petroleum Congress explored how energy powers artificial intelligence, how the two sectors interact and how AI can sharpen decisions, improve operations and raise energy efficiency.

Speakers said development of the energy and electricity sectors under Vision 2030 aims to meet demand and attract investment, including in AI data centers that need reliable, competitively priced electricity.

The approach involves anticipating sectors’ needs and connecting them with investors. Speakers stressed the need to integrate infrastructure, data, technology and human expertise, drawing on Saudi Arabia’s strengths to develop solutions and bring them to global markets.

Smart meters

AI can improve forecasts of electricity loads and demand and detect grid faults early, helping planners respond faster, speakers said.

Smart meter data can track consumption, forecast bills, show electricity use by appliance and flag unusual usage.

In oil and gas exploration and resource development, particularly drilling, AI can analyze data in real time and combine engineering models with geological information.

This can speed up decisions, improve accuracy, shorten the gap between planning and execution, enhance safety and support risk assessments and investment decisions.

To expand these applications, companies must deliver tangible business value and integrate the tools into operations, speakers said.

They must also ensure data quality and timely collection, train personnel to assess outputs and keep people involved in final decisions, while using digital tools to reduce risks.


IMFC Extends Aljadaan's Term as Chair by One Year

Saudi Arabia's Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan speaks during a press briefing following a meeting of the IMFC (International Monetary and Financial Committee) at the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 17, 2026. (Photo by Kent Nishimura / AFP)
Saudi Arabia's Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan speaks during a press briefing following a meeting of the IMFC (International Monetary and Financial Committee) at the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 17, 2026. (Photo by Kent Nishimura / AFP)
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IMFC Extends Aljadaan's Term as Chair by One Year

Saudi Arabia's Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan speaks during a press briefing following a meeting of the IMFC (International Monetary and Financial Committee) at the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 17, 2026. (Photo by Kent Nishimura / AFP)
Saudi Arabia's Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan speaks during a press briefing following a meeting of the IMFC (International Monetary and Financial Committee) at the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 17, 2026. (Photo by Kent Nishimura / AFP)

The International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced a request for a one-year extension of Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Aljadaan's term as Committee Chair after his current term ends on January 3, 2027.

The move aims to ensure continuity in the Committee's work and maintain momentum in advancing its key priorities, including important ongoing reforms.

In a statement issued Tuesday, the IMF said Committee members had asked Aljadaan to extend his term as Chair for an additional year and that he had agreed. Aljadaan was selected to chair the Committee for a three-year term beginning January 4, 2024.

Committee members expressed appreciation for Aljadaan's leadership, saying the extension would help ensure continuity and sustain momentum in addressing the Committee's key priorities, including its efforts on important ongoing reforms.

The IMFC is the primary policy advisory body of the IMF's Board of Governors and comprises finance ministers and central bank governors. It deliberates on major policy issues facing the Fund and the international monetary and financial system.

The Committee has 25 members, reflecting the composition of the IMF's Executive Board. Each member country, or group of member countries that elects an Executive Director to the Board, appoints a representative to the Committee.

The IMFC normally meets twice a year, once during the Spring Meetings and again in the fall, alongside the Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group.