A recent research paper released by the Jeddah-based Gulf Research Center has outlined two scenarios for the future of Egyptian-Iranian relations: the reestablishment and strengthening of diplomatic ties, or the continuation of the current state of estrangement while maintaining a policy of de-escalation.
Youssef Khattab, the author of the research paper, explained that the severed ties between the two nations do not stem from a deep-rooted historical strategic conflict, fundamental clashes of interests, geopolitical rivalry, or other factors that perpetuate perpetual tension and animosity between countries.
According to Khattab, this fact makes it relatively easier for both nations to restore their relations if the will and sincerity exist.
In his report, Khattab points out two potential scenarios for the future relations between Egypt and Iran.
The first scenario involves the reestablishment and consolidation of diplomatic ties. This scenario holds significant potential to serve the interests of both nations and their people, especially considering the economic hardships they currently face.
To alleviate inflation, unemployment, and other pressures, both countries would need to expand their cooperation in trade, finance, and investment.
According to the report, there are factors that support the scenario of diplomatic reconciliation between Egypt and Iran. The global economic crises caused by the coronavirus pandemic have affected all nations, especially developing or third-world countries, which lacked the capabilities to effectively cope with the crisis and swiftly recover from its aftermath.
This has led both countries to seek closer cooperation, shun discord, and mend their relations.
Additionally, the Russian invasion of Ukraine compelled many nations to pursue conflict de-escalation, problem-solving, and prioritizing national interests.
The researcher highlighted the resolution of the tense Iran-Gulf relations, with successful normalization and resumption of ties with Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
Khattab also mentioned the possibility of China mediating a historic agreement similar to the Saudi-Iranian accord, which could help bridge the gap between Cairo and Tehran.
This possibility arises from China's strategic interest in competing with the US for influence in the region.
Khattab further elaborated that achieving this scenario would require Egypt’s responsiveness to Iran’s acceptance of Omani mediation to restore relations.
Egypt should engage with the supportive statements from Iranian officials regarding reconciliation and overcome hesitation by embracing dialogue and negotiation.
Khattab emphasized that Iran must back its statements and welcoming gestures towards restoring relations with tangible steps that build trust and seriousness in Egypt’s ongoing efforts for reconciliation.
Historically, Iran has been the one to step back from re-establishing relations in previous attempts.
