Six Months into War, Sudanese Seek Refuge outside Chaotic Capital

Smoke rises over Khartoum, Sudan, on June 8, 2023, as fighting between the Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces continues. (AP)
Smoke rises over Khartoum, Sudan, on June 8, 2023, as fighting between the Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces continues. (AP)
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Six Months into War, Sudanese Seek Refuge outside Chaotic Capital

Smoke rises over Khartoum, Sudan, on June 8, 2023, as fighting between the Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces continues. (AP)
Smoke rises over Khartoum, Sudan, on June 8, 2023, as fighting between the Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces continues. (AP)

Six months after tensions between rival Sudanese generals ignited a devastating war, thousands lie dead, millions are displaced, and the once-thriving capital, Khartoum, is a shadow of its past glory.

When the first bombs fell on April 15, the capital's residents looked on in terror as entire neighborhoods were razed and essential services were paralyzed, exacerbating their misery.

Those who could escape the bloodshed and destruction rushed to the Red Sea coast about 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) to the east.

Port Sudan, now home to Sudan's only functioning airport, became a sanctuary for fleeing civilians and a transit hub for foreigners leaving the northeast African country.

Its rows of white colonial buildings were quickly filled with those who left Khartoum, including United Nations staff and government officials setting up makeshift offices.

In late August, they were joined by army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, whose fighters are pitted against those of his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, commander of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the conflict.

Burhan, the de facto leader of Sudan since leading a 2021 coup, had spent over four months stuck inside the army headquarters in Khartoum, besieged by Daglo's men.

But even though he has left Khartoum, there has been no let-up in fighting for the capital, as well as the western region of Darfur, where allegations of ethnically motivated attacks have led to an international war crimes investigation.

The United Nations' Human Rights Council voted Wednesday to set up an independent fact-finding mission to probe the accusations.

'Life doesn't stop'

Despite the exodus, millions of people have had little choice but to stay in Khartoum, where their bullet-scarred homes are shaken by daily blasts.

A constant plume of smoke now defines the capital's skyline, while businesses and warehouses lie abandoned, ransacked, and charred.

Before the war, the capital's three districts -- Khartoum, Omdurman and Khartoum North -- were the center of power, infrastructure and industry in the country of 48 million people.

"The war has shown just how much Khartoum had monopolized everything, (and) that's why the banks, the companies and all government stopped working," said urban planner Tarek Ahmed.

But economic analyst Omaima Khaled said that did not mean life had come to a halt.

With no end to the war in sight, "there had to be somewhere else where people's affairs could be managed," she said, and the obvious choice was Port Sudan -- a safe and well-connected city.

"It's first of all geographically far from the war," said Khaled, with fighting mainly taking place in the capital and the western region of Darfur.

It also has a long history of being "Sudan's second largest commercial center," she said, which could "very well make it an economic capital".

But Port Sudan has one crucial flaw: "it's 3,000 kilometers from the country's western border and 2,500 kilometers from its south, in a country that severely lacks an efficient transport network," said the economist.

Sudan's dilapidated road network is as highly centralized as the economy. Avoiding the war-torn capital requires massive circuitous routes around a country three times the size of France.

But the problems do not stop there, according to Port Sudan resident Hend Saleh.

"There's a shortage of drinking water and electricity," she told AFP, with the coastal town's already fragile infrastructure now catering to tens of thousands more.

Port Sudan -- founded in 1905 by British rulers to replace the historic port of Suakin, 60 kilometers away -- "is newer than other Sudanese cities and has a better urban plan and a better service network," according to engineer Fathi Yassin.

But it is burdened by the same shortfalls as the rest of Sudan, where decades of dilapidated infrastructure are adding to the immense impact of war.

Sudan's rainy season, which begins in June, has wreaked havoc on vast swathes of the country, with hundreds dying of cholera and dengue fever while 70 percent of hospitals remain out of service, the United Nations has said.

War spreading south

Unlike other Sudanese cities that draw water from the Nile, Port Sudan relies almost entirely on increasingly unpredictable rainfall.

Its residents have long demanded a connection to the river, which would require 500 kilometers of pipes -- an expense Sudan, already one of the poorest countries in the world before the war, has never been able to afford.

Closer to the Nile, the city of Wad Madani -- 200 kilometers south of Khartoum -- has also emerged as a potential capital.

Wad Madani, the capital Al Jazira state in the fertile heartland south of Khartoum, was the first destination for fleeing Khartoum families in the early weeks of the war.

The state now hosts more than 366,000 displaced people, in a thin string of villages between Khartoum and Wad Madani, as well as the state capital itself.

Interim governor Ismail Awadallah said the city also looked set to absorb more of the economy, with "17 large companies discussing their relocation and even expansion in Wad Madani".

But Wad Madani's economic potential might remain unfulfilled, as the fighting in Khartoum encroaches south.

Authorities on Wednesday announced paramilitaries had taken control of large areas of the Gezira agricultural scheme, only around 35 kilometers northwest of Wad Madani.



The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
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The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)

A fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanon's Hezbollah has held up for over a month, even as its terms seem unlikely to be met by the agreed-upon deadline.

The deal struck on Nov. 27 to halt the war required Hezbollah to immediately lay down its arms in southern Lebanon and gave Israel 60 days to withdraw its forces there and hand over control to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers.

So far, Israel has withdrawn from just two of the dozens of towns it holds in southern Lebanon. And it has continued striking what it says are bases belonging to Hezbollah, which it accuses of attempting to launch rockets and move weapons before they can be confiscated and destroyed, The AP reported.

Hezbollah, which was severely diminished during nearly 14 months of war, has threatened to resume fighting if Israel does not fully withdraw its forces by the 60-day deadline.

Yet despite accusations from both sides about hundreds of ceasefire violations, the truce is likely to hold, analysts say. That is good news for thousands of Israeli and Lebanese families displaced by the war still waiting to return home.

“The ceasefire agreement is rather opaque and open to interpretation,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow with the Middle East Institute in Washington. That flexibility, he said, may give it a better chance of holding in the face of changing circumstances, including the ouster of Syria's longtime leader, Bashar Assad, just days after the ceasefire took effect.

With Assad gone, Hezbollah lost a vital route for smuggling weapons from Iran. While that further weakened Hezbollah’s hand, Israel had already agreed to the US-brokered ceasefire.

Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on Oct. 8, 2023 — the day after Hamas launched a deadly attack into Israel that ignited the ongoing war in Gaza. Since then, Israeli air and ground assaults have killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon, including hundreds of civilians. At the height of the war, more than 1 million Lebanese people were displaced.

Hezbollah rockets forced some 60,000 from their homes in northern Israel, and killed 76 people in Israel, including 31 soldiers. Almost 50 Israeli soldiers were killed during operations inside Lebanon.

Here’s a look at the terms of the ceasefire and its prospects for ending hostilities over the long-term.

What does the ceasefire agreement say? The agreement says that both Hezbollah and Israel will halt “offensive” military actions, but that they can act in self-defense, although it is not entirely clear how that term may be interpreted.

The Lebanese army is tasked with preventing Hezbollah and other militant groups from launching attacks into Israel. It is also required to dismantle Hezbollah facilities and weapons in southern Lebanon — activities that might eventually be expanded to the rest of Lebanon, although it is not explicit in the ceasefire agreement.

The United States, France, Israel, Lebanon and the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, are responsible for overseeing implementation of the agreement.

“The key question is not whether the deal will hold, but what version of it will be implemented,” Maksad, the analyst, said.

Is the ceasefire being implemented? Hezbollah has for the most part halted its rocket and drone fire into Israel, and Israel has stopped attacking Hezbollah in most areas of Lebanon. But Israel has launched regular airstrikes on what it says are militant sites in southern Lebanon and in the Bekaa Valley.

Israeli forces have so far withdrawn from two towns in southern Lebanon - Khiam and Shamaa. They remain in some 60 others, according to the International Organization for Migration, and around 160,000 Lebanese remain displaced.

Lebanon has accused Israel of repeatedly violating the ceasefire agreement and last week submitted a complaint to the UN Security Council that says Israel launched some 816 “ground and air attacks” between the start of the ceasefire and Dec. 22, 2024.

The complaint said the attacks have hindered the Lebanese army's efforts to deploy in the south and uphold its end of the ceasefire agreement.

Until Israel hands over control of more towns to the Lebanese army, Israeli troops have been destroying Hezbollah infrastructure, including weapons warehouses and underground tunnels. Lebanese authorities say Israel has also destroyed civilian houses and infrastructure.

What happens after the ceasefire has been in place for 60 days? Israel's withdrawal from Lebanese towns has been slower than anticipated because of a lack of Lebanese army troops ready to take over, according to Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesman. Lebanon disputes this, and says it is waiting for Israel to withdraw before entering the towns.

Shoshani said Israel is satisfied with the Lebanese army's control of the areas it has already withdrawn from, and that while it would prefer a faster transfer of power, security is its most important objective.

Israel does not consider the 60-day timetable for withdrawal to be “sacred,” said Harel Chorev, an expert on Israel-Lebanon relations at Tel Aviv University who estimates that Lebanon will need to recruit and deploy thousands more troops before Israel will be ready to hand over control.

Hezbollah officials have said that if Israeli forces remain in Lebanon 60 days past the start of the ceasefire, the militant group might return to attacking them. But Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Kassem said Wednesday that, for now, the group is holding off to give the Lebanese state a chance to "take responsibility” for enforcing the agreement.

Over the final two months of the war, Hezbollah suffered major blows to its leadership, weapons and forces from a barrage of Israeli airstrikes, and a ground invasion that led to fierce battles in southern Lebanon. The fall of Assad was another big setback.

“The power imbalance suggests Israel may want to ensure greater freedom of action after the 60-day period,” Maksad, the analyst, said. And Hezbollah, in its weakened position, now has a “strong interest” in making sure the deal doesn't fall apart altogether “despite Israeli violations,” he said.

While Hezbollah may not be in a position to return to open war with Israel, it or other groups could mount guerilla attacks using light weaponry if Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon, said former Lebanese army Gen. Hassan Jouni. And even if Israel does withdraw all of its ground forces, Jouni said, the Israeli military could could continue to carry out sporadic airstrikes in Lebanon, much as it has done in Syria for years.