US Returns to Middle East Because of War on Gaza

Fighter jets fly over the aircraft carrier USS Dwight Eisenhower. (AFP)
Fighter jets fly over the aircraft carrier USS Dwight Eisenhower. (AFP)
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US Returns to Middle East Because of War on Gaza

Fighter jets fly over the aircraft carrier USS Dwight Eisenhower. (AFP)
Fighter jets fly over the aircraft carrier USS Dwight Eisenhower. (AFP)

The ongoing discussions about the size of the US military deployed in the Middle East raised questions about the role Washington seeks to play in light of the war on Gaza.

US President Joe Biden stated there was "no going back to the status quo as it stood on Oct. 7," indicating that the administration is devising plans for the upcoming days.

Reports of the US military deployment in the region, including the establishment of a secret military base in Israel, prompted Vice President Kamala Harris to confirm that her country has "absolutely no intention nor do we have any plans to send combat troops into Israel or Gaza, period."

During an interview with CBS News, Harris stressed support for Israel's right to self-defense, while being concerned for the safety of civilians.

"Israel, without any question, has a right to defend itself. That being said, it is very important that there be no conflation between Hamas and the Palestinians."

She indicated that the Palestinians deserve equal measures of "safety and security, self-determination and dignity, and we have been very clear that the rules of war must be adhered to and that there be humanitarian aid that flows."

Farther than Gaza

Biden's frequent phone calls with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and repeated statements from the Pentagon and US Central Command suggest that the discussions focus on the developments in Gaza and the release of hostages.

The talks also address measures to prevent the war from expanding to other regions and ensure the situation does not implode in the West Bank and the occupied Palestinian territories.

They also want to prevent it from spilling into Lebanon, where the intensity of clashes is increasing between Hezbollah and Israel, and towards Syria. The war could also have severe threats to regional security due to Iran's active role in arming and financing groups loyal to it.

Asked by CBS about the message to Iran, Harris echoed Biden's warnings when he said, "Don't."

"Exactly. One word. Pretty straightforward."

Does this mean the US would return to fill the strategic vacuum it created after retreating from the geopolitical map of the Middle East?

Secret base?

The matter goes beyond sending two aircraft carriers and deploying thousands of US soldiers around Israel.

Two months before the Hamas attack, the Pentagon awarded a multimillion-dollar contract to build US troop facilities for a secret base on top of Mt. Har Qeren, deep in the Negev desert, only about 35 kilometers from Gaza.

The old base, code-named "Site 512," is a radar facility that monitors the skies for missile attacks on Israel.

However, according to the Intercept website, the facility did not detect the launch of thousands of rockets from Gaza toward Israel on Oct. 7 because its radars focused on Iran, more than 1,100 kilometers away.

The Pentagon indirectly referred to a $35.8 million contract for the facility in an announcement on Aug. 2.

The Intercept pointed out that although the Defense Department made great efforts to obscure the true nature of the site, described as a "classified worldwide" project, budget documents showed that it was part of Site 512.

Paul Pillar, a former senior analyst at the CIA's counterterrorism center, said that sometimes something is treated as an official secret, not hoping the adversary would never discover it, but because the US government does not want to acknowledge it officially.

"In this case, perhaps the base will be used to support operations elsewhere in the Middle East in which any acknowledgment that they were staged from Israel or involved any cooperation with Israel would be inconvenient and likely to elicit more negative reactions than the operations otherwise would elicit," he told the Intercept.

Rare acknowledgement

Rare acknowledgment of the US military presence in Israel came in 2017 when the two countries inaugurated a military site.

The US government-funded Voice of America described the site as "the first US military base on Israeli soil."

At the time, Israeli Air Force's Brig. Gen. Tzvika Haimovitch said it was "historic."

He said: "We established a US base in the State of Israel, in the Israel Defense Forces, for the first time."

A day later, the US military denied that it was an American base, insisting that it was merely a "living facility" for US service members working at an Israeli base.

Strike forces

The facility can house as many as 1,000 troops. However, it wasn't established to contend with a threat to Israel from Palestinian militants, but the danger posed by Iranian mid-range missiles.

The growing security concerns have prompted the Pentagon to significantly expand its presence in the Middle East, with the US doubling the number of fighter jets in the region and deploying two aircraft carriers off the coast of Israel.

The first is the USS Gerald Ford, which includes about 5,000 Marines and a group of accompanying warships, including at least a missile cruiser, two destroyers, and dozens of aircraft, including jet fighters.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also directed another aircraft carrier, the USS Dwight Eisenhower, and its escorts to make the transit to the Mediterranean, in addition to the amphibious assault ship USS Bataan, which carries personnel from the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit.

The Pentagon announced it was sending 900 troops of rapid intervention units "intended to support regional deterrence efforts and further bolster US force protection capabilities," according to Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder.

Which role?

US defense officials stressed that the deployment readiness order states that the forces are not intended to serve in combat roles, but are assigned to tasks such as providing "intelligence and planning" and medical support.

Officials said some may enter Israel to support its forces, noting that Washington dispatched three generals, who led the fight against ISIS to provide advice.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon is accelerating the deployment of about a dozen missile defense systems in the region to protect US forces from missiles and other attacks.

In addition, the US military support to Israel includes an increase in ammunition and missiles for the Israeli Iron Dome.

The White House also asked Congress for $14 billion to support Israel, most of it for weapons. The Israeli army already receives significant military aid, amounting to $3.8 billion annually, with $1 billion from direct arms sales.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.