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Analysts: Houthi Engagement in Gaza War Unlikely to Affect Peace Efforts in Yemen

Members of Houthi military forces parade in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida, Yemen September 1, 2022. Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS
Members of Houthi military forces parade in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida, Yemen September 1, 2022. Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS
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Analysts: Houthi Engagement in Gaza War Unlikely to Affect Peace Efforts in Yemen

Members of Houthi military forces parade in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida, Yemen September 1, 2022. Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS
Members of Houthi military forces parade in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida, Yemen September 1, 2022. Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS

Analysts ruled out that the Houthi group’s involvement in the current war in Gaza would affect the ongoing peace efforts in Yemen.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, analysts said the Houthis, by announcing the targeting of Israel, sought to express popular support for the Palestinians, suggesting that Israel would respond by attacking Houthi military targets, while ruling out any US intervention, at least at the current stage.

On Tuesday, the Houthi group in Yemen officially claimed responsibility for bombing Israel with missiles and drones. The announcement came after the US and Israeli forces previously said the attacks came from the southern Red Sea.

Mustafa Naaman, the former Undersecretary of the Yemeni Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that the “Houthi endeavour” in Gaza will not have an impact on the internal situation and the ongoing negotiations between the parties to the Yemeni conflict.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Naaman said that he expects that the recent events would accelerate the closure of the Yemeni war and would see the start of addressing the humanitarian side.

For his part, Dr. Hisham Al-Ghannam, the General Supervisor of the Center for Security Research and National Security Programs at Naif Arab University for Security Sciences (NAUSS), explained that the Houthis have repeatedly announced that they were part of what they called the “axis of resistance and opposition,” and that they would engage in any battle involving this axis.

Al-Ghannam went on to say that the Houthi move fell within the framework of an expression of popular support for the Palestinians and would not impact the ongoing efforts in Yemen.

“The internal Yemeni situation is complex and more complicated than it appears to be... Certainly, the symbolic involvement in a battle far from Yemen will have no impact on the internal Yemeni negotiations, because the intra-Yemeni disputes have nothing to do with Palestine...” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Al-Ghannam also ruled out any “American intervention against the Houthis, unless their forces or interests are directly targeted.”

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Israel’s Messages Behind Strikes on Beirut’s Southern Suburb

Men stand at the scene of an Israeli strike on a building in Beirut's southern suburbs on April 1, 2025. (AFP)
Men stand at the scene of an Israeli strike on a building in Beirut's southern suburbs on April 1, 2025. (AFP)
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Israel’s Messages Behind Strikes on Beirut’s Southern Suburb

Men stand at the scene of an Israeli strike on a building in Beirut's southern suburbs on April 1, 2025. (AFP)
Men stand at the scene of an Israeli strike on a building in Beirut's southern suburbs on April 1, 2025. (AFP)

Israel’s latest airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburb, known as Dahiyeh, have moved beyond mere retaliation for rocket fire, signaling a shift in the rules of engagement. By targeting the area twice in less than a week, Tel Aviv has effectively abandoned the informal understanding that had kept the suburb off-limits since the ceasefire took effect in November.

The escalation raises questions about how Lebanon’s government and Hezbollah will respond and whether this marks the beginning of a more intense phase of conflict.

Pressure to normalize ties

Observers close to Hezbollah believe Israel’s strikes are aimed to increase pressure on Lebanon to engage in normalization talks.

Brig. Gen. Mounir Shehadeh, former Lebanese government coordinator with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), suggested that the rockets fired into Israel last Friday—which prompted the initial Israeli response—ultimately served Israeli interests.

“It was evident that these were crude, suspicious rockets, giving Israel the pretext it needed to strike deep into Lebanese territory, specifically Dahiyeh,” Shehadeh told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He pointed to Tuesday’s assassination of a Hezbollah member in the Dahiyeh strike, describing it as a significant escalation. “Unlike last week, there was no pretext for this attack,” he said. “This confirms that Israel’s objective is to pressure Lebanon into normalization.”

Shehadeh argued that the US and Israel are working to push Lebanon into political negotiations involving diplomats and politicians rather than military representatives.

“There are also growing efforts to force Hezbollah into making internal concessions, particularly to disarm in areas north of the Litani River,” he added.

He stressed that Israel is sending a clear message: no location in Lebanon is off-limits, and it will continue to act whenever and wherever it sees fit.

A different perspective

Retired Brig. Gen. George Nader offered a different interpretation of the escalation. He believes Israel does not need excuses to carry out its attacks, but argues that Lebanon should avoid giving it any justification.

“We have failed to implement international resolutions, particularly Resolution 1701, and we continue to insist that Hezbollah’s disarmament requires national dialogue,” Nader told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He questioned the relevance of such discussions, given that Lebanon’s previous government had already signed an agreement calling for the disarmament of armed groups and the dismantling of their military infrastructure, starting south of the Litani River.

“As long as the situation remains unchanged, we should expect Israeli violations and attacks to intensify,” he warned. He also cited explicit US warnings that Lebanon could face cuts in military aid and even sanctions if it fails to implement the agreement.

“We are at a crossroads,” Nader said. “Either Hezbollah acknowledges the shifting regional and international dynamics, helps the state assert full sovereignty over Lebanese territory, and surrenders its weapons—or Israel will continue the aggressive approach we are seeing today.”