What is Sudan's Purpose of Diplomatic Approach with Iran?

Sudanese Foreign Minister-designate Sadiq Ali meets in Uganda with Iran's First VP Mohamed Mokhber (SUNA)
Sudanese Foreign Minister-designate Sadiq Ali meets in Uganda with Iran's First VP Mohamed Mokhber (SUNA)
TT

What is Sudan's Purpose of Diplomatic Approach with Iran?

Sudanese Foreign Minister-designate Sadiq Ali meets in Uganda with Iran's First VP Mohamed Mokhber (SUNA)
Sudanese Foreign Minister-designate Sadiq Ali meets in Uganda with Iran's First VP Mohamed Mokhber (SUNA)

Sudanese and Iranian officials have agreed to expedite their steps to resume relations and restore diplomatic representation.

The recent rapprochement raised questions about the reasons for that path amid the war that has been raging in the country for nine months, claiming the lives of thousands and displacing millions.

On Saturday, Sudan's Foreign Minister-designate Ali al-Sadiq met in Uganda with the Iranian First Vice President, Mohamed Mokhber, on the sidelines of the Non-Aligned Movement summit in Kampala.

A Sudanese statement stated that the officials discussed restoring bilateral relations and accelerating steps to reopen embassies.

Sudan severed its relationship with Iran in 2016, but last October, its foreign ministry announced the resumption of diplomatic relations. No additional steps have been taken since then.

Observers questioned the purpose of the recent Sudanese-Iranian announcement about accelerating efforts to resume bilateral relations.

A former senior official in the Sudanese Islamic Movement believed that the Islamists were working to exploit the relationship with Iran, aiming to weaponize the army.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat, on condition of anonymity, that the army needs to be armed in light of the support Rapid Support Forces is receiving.

The source added that Iran was fully prepared to restore relations with Sudan after the fall of President Omar Al-Bashir's regime.

However, the transitional civil government headed by the Chairman of the Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok did not want to take the step.

Burhan was conservative to the point of categorically rejecting any step toward restoring relations between the two countries, especially since he began to establish ties with Israel, said the source.

Political analyst Abu Dhar Ali al-Amin said Burhan is facing pressure from the US and the UK in favor of the Forces of Freedom and Change and Rapid Support Forces.

Amin indicated that the rapprochement towards Iran aims to create a balance through Iran, China, and Russia and arm the military.

He believes Sudan is trying to address the issue, which requires effort, time, and persuasive reasons from the Iranians, noting that severing the relations surprised Tehran.

Sudan attributed its severing of relations with Iran in 2016 to its regional interventions on sectarian grounds and its attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran.

The analyst agreed with the Islamist leader that weapons are a direct motive for restoring relations with Iran, noting that "international developments" regarding dealing and resuming regional relations may have formed an incentive for the Sudanese army commander to look in a similar direction.

According to Amin, Iran will provide the Sudanese army with drones to continue its battles against the Rapid Support Forces.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
TT

What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.