Bye, Bye Bibi: Is the Game up for Israel’s Netanyahu? 

A woman holds a sign reading "destruction" in Hebrew with a drawing depicting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as Israeli anti-government protesters attend a four-day sit-in near the parliament in Jerusalem on April 2, 2024, calling for the dissolution of the government and the return of Israelis held hostage in Gaza since the October 7 attacks by Hamas. (AFP)
A woman holds a sign reading "destruction" in Hebrew with a drawing depicting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as Israeli anti-government protesters attend a four-day sit-in near the parliament in Jerusalem on April 2, 2024, calling for the dissolution of the government and the return of Israelis held hostage in Gaza since the October 7 attacks by Hamas. (AFP)
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Bye, Bye Bibi: Is the Game up for Israel’s Netanyahu? 

A woman holds a sign reading "destruction" in Hebrew with a drawing depicting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as Israeli anti-government protesters attend a four-day sit-in near the parliament in Jerusalem on April 2, 2024, calling for the dissolution of the government and the return of Israelis held hostage in Gaza since the October 7 attacks by Hamas. (AFP)
A woman holds a sign reading "destruction" in Hebrew with a drawing depicting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as Israeli anti-government protesters attend a four-day sit-in near the parliament in Jerusalem on April 2, 2024, calling for the dissolution of the government and the return of Israelis held hostage in Gaza since the October 7 attacks by Hamas. (AFP)

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest serving prime minister, has been written off many times before.

But with thousands of protesters on the streets every night this week demanding he resign, and growing anger at his handling of the war in Gaza, many wonder how long the veteran political escapologist can survive.

The usually bullish Netanyahu, 74, appears both physically and politically fragile.

Deeply unpopular -- no more than four percent of Israelis trust him, according to one poll late last year -- the war in Gaza is taking its toll on the man Israelis call Bibi.

Visibly frail and sallow, he was short-tempered and distracted during a television speech Saturday which his former minister and Likud colleague Limor Livnat called "catastrophic".

The left-wing daily Haaretz said he looked "like a frightened tyrant".

Netanyahu was even more gaunt when he left hospital in Jerusalem Tuesday after a hernia operation only to have to face the ire of the international community after an Israeli strike killed seven aid workers for a US-based group in Gaza.

"It happens in war," Netanyahu said with a tact which may not have been appreciated in the White House, which said it was "heartbroken" at the deaths.

"Netanyahu has been buried politically many times before and bounced back," said Emmanuel Navon, a former Likud member and political science professor.

"But this time is different because of October 7. It is not the same country. It's over for Bibi.

"He is 74, doesn't do any exercise, has a very hard job and he had a pacemaker put in six months ago."

Blamed for October 7 'disaster'

But Navon doubts Netanyahu will be forced from office by the new wave of mass street protests despite the fury of the hostages' families.

Einav Zangauker, the mother of one of the 134 still held in Gaza, branded him a "pharaoh, a slayer of first-borns" at Tuesday night's rally outside parliament in Jerusalem, the fourth consecutive night of protests.

They have seen hostage families uniting with anti-government demonstrators who spent nine months on the streets last year trying to stop controversial judicial reforms pushed by Netanyahu's far-right allies.

The "disaster" of October 7 would have killed off any other politician. But Navon compared Netanyahu's hold over the ruling Likud party to Donald Trump's over US Republicans.

"Likud lawmakers are petrified to be penalized in the next primaries by the 'Trio' -- Bibi, his wife and his son who decide everything," said the professor at Tel Aviv University.

"Peoples' political lives depend on him. He has surfed populism, his candidates now tend to be conspiracy theory wackos. It is not the same party of 20 years ago."

Divide and rule

With his coalition reeling from crisis to crisis, enemies seem to be circling as never before around the leader of Israel's most right-wing government ever.

Prosecutors are pushing ahead with a corruption trial against him despite the war, and protesters tried to break through police barriers to get to his home on Tuesday for the second time in four days.

Even his defense minister, Likud stalwart Yoav Gallant, is defying him over the deeply divisive issue of ultra-Orthodox Jews escaping compulsory military service even as the war in Gaza rages and another looms with Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Netanyahu has long relied on the support of religious parties to govern.

"Excusing a whole community when the military needs so much more manpower is unforgivable," General Reuven Benkler told AFP at an anti-government rally Monday.

The 65-year-old came out of retirement to serve in the north after the Hamas attack which resulted in 1,160 deaths in Israel, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.

Israel's retaliatory campaign has killed at least 32,916 people, mostly women and children, according to the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza.

Benkler said the "hostages will not come home while Bibi is still in power", adding that Netanyahu was dragging out the war in Gaza to prolong his rule -- a claim endlessly repeated at the protests.

"He doesn't give a damn about anyone else apart from himself."

Netanyahu's three-decade hold over Israeli politics was based on divide and rule, Navon said. And his claim that only he could keep the country safe, October 7 shattered that.

His promise of elections in 2026 was "delusional", the analyst said. "But protesters' demands for them now are also unrealistic. The end of the year when the war has been won in Gaza and the north is more likely," he added.

On Tuesday night, hostage mother Zangauker accused Netanyahu of letting Israel's guard fall, declaring at a mass protest to thunderous cheers: "It's all your fault -- 240 were kidnapped on your watch."

"You nurtured and raised Hamas," she added, and yet "you call us traitors (for protesting during a war) when you are the traitor."



Who Is Joseph Aoun, a Low-Profile Army Chief Who Is Now Lebanon’s President?

 Newly-elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reviews the honor guard upon his arrival at the Lebanese Parliament to be sworn in as a new president, in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP)
Newly-elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reviews the honor guard upon his arrival at the Lebanese Parliament to be sworn in as a new president, in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP)
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Who Is Joseph Aoun, a Low-Profile Army Chief Who Is Now Lebanon’s President?

 Newly-elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reviews the honor guard upon his arrival at the Lebanese Parliament to be sworn in as a new president, in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP)
Newly-elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reviews the honor guard upon his arrival at the Lebanese Parliament to be sworn in as a new president, in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP)

Lebanon’s new president and former army commander Joseph Aoun has maintained a low profile. Those who know him say he is no-nonsense, kind and averse to affiliating himself with any party or even expressing a political opinion — a rarity for someone in Lebanon’s fractured, transactional political system.

Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon official who is now senior managing director of the TRENDS US consulting firm, often met Aoun while overseeing Washington's security cooperation in the Middle East. He called Aoun a "very sweet man, very compassionate, very warm" who avoided political discussions "like the plague."

"He really was viciously nonpartisan, did not have any interest in even delivering speeches or doing media," Saab said. "He wanted to take care of business, and his only order of business was commanding the Lebanese army."

That might make Aoun an odd fit as Lebanon’s president after being elected Thursday — ending a more than two-year vacuum in the post — but Saab said it could be a boon for the country where incoming leaders typically demand that certain plum positions go to supporters.

"He’s not going to ask for equities in politics that typically any other president would do," Saab said.

Aoun, 61, is from Aichiye, a Christian village in Jezzine province, southern Lebanon. He joined the army as a cadet in 1983, during Lebanon's 15-year civil war.

George Nader, a retired brigadier general who served alongside Aoun, recalled him as keeping cool under fire.

They fought together in the battle of Adma in 1990, a fierce confrontation between the Lebanese army and the Lebanese Forces militia during the war's final stages. Nader described it as one of the toughest battles of his career.

"The level of bloodshed was significant and I remember Joseph was steady and focused," he said.

Aoun commanded the Lebanese army's 9th infantry brigade before being appointed army chief in March 2017.

During his tenure as commander, he oversaw the army’s response to a series of crises, beginning with a battle to push out militants from the ISIS group and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, who were then operating in eastern Lebanon near the Syrian border. The army fought in coordination with the Hezbollah group.

HTS in its current iteration led a lightning offensive that toppled Syrian president Bashar al-Assad last month and has become the de facto ruling party in Syria.

The Lebanese army navigated other challenges, including responding to mass anti-government protests in 2019, the 2020 Beirut port explosion and the 14-month conflict between Israel and Hezbollah that came to a halt with a ceasefire agreement in November.

The Lebanese military largely stayed on the sidelines in the Israel-Hezbollah war, only returning fire a handful of times when Israeli strikes hit its positions. Dozens of soldiers were killed in airstrikes and shelling

The military also took a major hit when Lebanon's currency collapsed beginning in 2019, reducing the monthly salary of a soldier to the equivalent of less than $100.

In a rare political statement, Aoun openly criticized the country's leadership for its lack of action on the issue in a speech in June 2021.

"What are you waiting for? What do you plan to do? We have warned more than once of the dangers of the situation," he said. The United States and Qatar both at one point subsidized soldiers' salaries.

Ed Gabriel, president of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a nonprofit that aims to build stronger US-Lebanon ties, said he met Aoun about seven years ago when he was taking over command of the armed forces and "immediately found him to be the best of those that we had worked with."

He described Aoun as a "very direct guy, very honest" and a leader "who inspires loyalty by his hard work." Those attributes helped Aoun to prevent a flood of defections during the economic crisis, when many soldiers had to resort to working second jobs, Gabriel said.

On a personal level, Gabriel described Aoun as a humble and deeply religious man. Like all Lebanese presidents and army commanders under Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system, Aoun is a Maronite Christian.

"His religion really sets the groundwork for ... his value system and his morals," Gabriel said.

In Aoun's hometown, residents burst into celebrations after his election, setting off fireworks, dancing in the streets and handing out sweets.

"We are currently living in very difficult times, and he is the right person for this challenging period," said Claire Aoun, among those celebrating. "May God guide and support him, and may he rebuild this entire nation for us."

But Aoun's election was not without controversy or universally supported, even among fellow Christians.

One of the most influential Christian parties in the country, the Free Patriotic Movement of former President Michel Aoun — no relation to the current president — opposed his candidacy. And the Lebanese Forces party gave him their endorsement only the night before the election.

Some have argued that Joseph Aoun’s election violated the law. The Lebanese constitution bars a sitting army commander from being elected president, though the ban has been waived multiple times. Some legislators were not happy doing it again.

Some in Lebanon also perceived Aoun's election as the result of outside pressure — notably from the United States — and less the result of internal consensus. Hezbollah's war with Israel weakened the group, politically and militarily, and left Lebanon in need of international assistance for reconstruction, which analysts said paved the way for Aoun's election.

Saab, the analyst, said painting Aoun as a puppet of Washington is unfair, although he acknowledged there’s no such thing as a Lebanese president or prime minister completely independent of foreign influence.

"The entire country is heavily penetrated and vulnerable and at the mercy of international powers," Saab said. "But ... if you were going to compare him to the leadership of Hezbollah being fully subservient to Iranian interests, then no, he’s not that guy when it comes to the Americans."