Biden Will Step Aside in the 2024 Race. What Happens Next?

A "Kamala 2024" sign is placed outside the US Naval Observatory, home of Vice President Kamala Harris, on July 21, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Getty Images via AFP)
A "Kamala 2024" sign is placed outside the US Naval Observatory, home of Vice President Kamala Harris, on July 21, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Getty Images via AFP)
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Biden Will Step Aside in the 2024 Race. What Happens Next?

A "Kamala 2024" sign is placed outside the US Naval Observatory, home of Vice President Kamala Harris, on July 21, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Getty Images via AFP)
A "Kamala 2024" sign is placed outside the US Naval Observatory, home of Vice President Kamala Harris, on July 21, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Getty Images via AFP)

President Joe Biden said on Sunday he would withdraw from the 2024 presidential election race, putting the United States into uncharted territory.

Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic nominee.

Before Biden's decision was made, Reuters spoke to Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think-tank, a Democratic National Committee member and author of the book "Primary Politics" about the presidential nominating process, who explained how the process could work. Reuters also spoke to legal experts and Democratic Party officials.

Q: WHAT HAPPENS NOW?

A: Biden has spent the last several months accruing nearly 4,000 Democratic delegates by winning primary elections in US states and territories.

Those delegates would normally vote for him to be the party's official presidential nominee at the Democratic National Convention, which is to take place Aug. 19-22, but the rules do not bind or force them to do so. Delegates can vote with their conscience, which means they could throw their vote to someone else.

By stepping aside, Biden is effectively "releasing" his delegates, potentially sparking a competition among other Democratic candidates to become the nominee.

Within hours of Biden's announcement, Harris' allies were working the phones - calling delegates and party chairs to get their backing, sources told Reuters.

Q: WHO COULD REPLACE BIDEN?

A: Several candidates could step into the fray.

Harris is at the top of the list, but she has had her own problems after a rocky start as vice president and poor polling numbers. The US Constitution dictates that the vice president becomes president if the president dies or becomes incapacitated, but it does not weigh in on an inter-party process for choosing a nominee.

California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker have all been floated as possible replacements. Up until now they have been Biden supporters working to help get him elected, and Whitmer has said she supports Harris.

Q: HOW WILL A NOMINEE BE CHOSEN?

A: There could be a free-for-all of sorts between the Democratic heavyweights vying for the job.

According to Ballotpedia, there are expected to be some 4,672 delegates in 2024, including 3,933 pledged delegates and 739 so-called superdelegates - senior party members.

In order to secure the nomination, a candidate would need to get a majority - that is, more votes than all the others combined.

That's what Harris' allies are trying to do right now - secure the pledged support of 1,969 delegates, and shut down any competition.

If no one achieves that, then there would be a "brokered convention" where the delegates act as free agents and negotiate with the party leadership. Rules would be established and there would be roll-call votes for names placed into nomination.

It could take several rounds of voting for someone to get a majority and become the nominee. The last brokered convention when Democrats failed to nominate a candidate on the first ballot was in 1952.

WHAT HAPPENS TO BIDEN'S CAMPAIGN CASH?

The Biden-Harris campaign had $91 million in the bank at the end of May, but experts on campaign finance law disagree on how readily the money could change hands.

Because Harris is also on the campaign filing documents, many experts believe the money could be transferred over to her if she is on the ticket. There is some debate about whether Biden would need to be officially nominated first as the party's candidate before a transfer could be made.



Nawaf Salam: Lebanon’s Prime Minister ‘Judge’ in Joseph Aoun’s First Term in Office

Lebanese Ambassador to the United Nations Nawaf Salam speaks to reporters after Security Council consultations on the situation in Libya, March 14, 2011 at United Nations headquarters. (AP)
Lebanese Ambassador to the United Nations Nawaf Salam speaks to reporters after Security Council consultations on the situation in Libya, March 14, 2011 at United Nations headquarters. (AP)
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Nawaf Salam: Lebanon’s Prime Minister ‘Judge’ in Joseph Aoun’s First Term in Office

Lebanese Ambassador to the United Nations Nawaf Salam speaks to reporters after Security Council consultations on the situation in Libya, March 14, 2011 at United Nations headquarters. (AP)
Lebanese Ambassador to the United Nations Nawaf Salam speaks to reporters after Security Council consultations on the situation in Libya, March 14, 2011 at United Nations headquarters. (AP)

Years after his name had been suggested by the Lebanese opposition to become prime minister, Judge Nawaf Salam was finally tasked on Monday with the formation of a new government under newly elected President Joseph Aoun’s first term in office.

Salam, currently serving as the head of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), was nominated by the majority of lawmakers during consultations with Aoun.

Salam was born in Beirut on December 15, 1953. He was elected as head of the ICJ in February 2024.

His nomination as prime minister was first floated by the opposition in wake of the October 2019 anti-government protests, after the resignation of Saad Hariri as PM.

The opposition at the time had proposed him as a neutral-technocratic figure who was not affiliated with the current political class. His candidacy was “vetoed” by the Shiite duo of Hezbollah and its ally the Amal movement, headed by parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.

They deemed him as the “United States’ candidate” and effectively thwarted his nomination. Hassan Diab was appointed prime minister instead.

The duo had on Monday refrained from nominating any candidate for the position of prime minister.

Diab’s government resigned after the August 4, 2020, Beirut Port explosion. Salam was again suggested as prime minister, but an agreement between the majority of political blocs led to Mustafa Adib’s appointment with 90 votes.

Adib would step down days later due to differences over the formation of the government.

Throughout that time, Salam had not taken political sides, but expressed his appreciation for MPs who had suggested his nomination.

Call for reform

He stressed the need to “save Lebanon from its plight, which demands change in how crises are handled and how work should be done. This starts with the implementation of financial and political reforms, which should focus on confronting the mentality of clientelism and quotas.”

He also underlined the importance of establishing an independent judiciary and “fortifying state institutions against sectarianism and favoritism.”

“The reforms will be meaningless if they are not based on the principles of fairness, social justice and the protection of rights and public and private freedoms.”

He vowed that he will always work alongside figures who “are committed to change to reform the state and allow it to impose its sovereignty throughout its territory and restore Lebanon’s position in the Arab world and the world’s trust in it.”

Salam and the ICJ

Salam’s appointment as head of the ICJ had alarmed Israel. He had taken clear stances against Israel and openly supported the Palestinian cause.

Israel’s Jerusalem Post said he has a “long history in opposing Israel through his statements and stances.” It recalled a tweet aimed at Israel in 2015, in which he said: “Unhappy birthday to you, 48 years of occupation.”

Salam is a member of a prominent family from Beirut. His grandfather “Abou Ali” Salim Ali Salam (1868-1938) was a leading figure in the capital. He was a member of the Ottoman parliament and head of its municipality in 1908.

Nawaf’s father, Abdullah Salam, was a prominent businessman and one of the founders of Middle East Airlines, Lebanon’s national carrier.

One of his uncles is former Prime Minister Saeb Salam, who served in that post four times between 1952 and 1973. Tammam Salam is a cousin who served as prime minister twice between 2014 and 2016.

Nawaf Salam holds a doctorate in political science from France’s prestigious Sciences Po university as well as a doctorate in history from France’s Sorbonne University. He also has a Master of Laws degree from Harvard Law School. Salam has worked as a lecturer at several universities, including the American University of Beirut.

Prior to heading the ICJ, he served as Lebanon’s ambassador to the United Nations between 2007 and 2017. He also represented the country at the UN Security Council between 2010 and 2011.

His publications include “Lebanon Between Past and Future”, published in Beirut in 2021.