Residents of Beirut, Dahieh Plan to Evacuate Homes if War with Israel Erupts

A large banner shows slain Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr and a vow to avenge his killing. (AFP)
A large banner shows slain Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr and a vow to avenge his killing. (AFP)
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Residents of Beirut, Dahieh Plan to Evacuate Homes if War with Israel Erupts

A large banner shows slain Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr and a vow to avenge his killing. (AFP)
A large banner shows slain Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr and a vow to avenge his killing. (AFP)

Israel’s assassination of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut’s southern suburbs of Dahieh has prompted the residents of the area to seek safe haven in regions in case of the eruption of a broader war with Israel.

They have sought to rent apartments in regions such as Bhamdoun, Baabda and Aley - in a form of “temporary displacement” - where they can wait for the latest tensions to blow over.

Some people have been lucky enough to find apartments that they had previously used as summer lodging, while others are looking for furnished apartments as temporary refuge.

Tensions soured last week in wake of Shukr’s assassination and the killing of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Hezbollah and Iran have vowed to retaliate, raising fears that Israel could respond to any attack by targeting Beirut and Hezbollah’s stronghold of Dahieh.

Reina, 51, a resident of Ain al-Rummaneh near Dahieh, said she has taken the decision to move to Bhamdoun throughout August in anticipation of any escalation.

“I won’t venture by going down to Beirut. Maybe Israel would strike roads and bridges like it did in 2006. We can do without more tensions,” she said.

Israel and Hezbollah waged a 33-day war in July 2006 during which the later targeted Dahieh and the South – another Hezbollah stronghold. It also destroyed roads and bridges throughout Lebanon, as well as attacked Beirut’s Rafik Hariri International Airport, putting it out of service.

On Wednesday, Nour, 26, a resident of Dahieh, began searching for a furnished apartment to rent for her and her family in the Baabda and Aley regions that are close to Beirut suburbs.

She said she has searched tirelessly online for the right apartment. “Some large apartments are available, but the conditions for renting them are ridiculous,” she told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Rent has tripled with apartments going for 1,200 dollars a month,” she added. She said that she understood that rent would skyrocket with the high demand, but owners are making impossible conditions, such as asking for an advance payment worth six months' rent, amid a stifling economic crisis in Lebanon.

“We don’t have that kind of money. If the war were to stop within a month or two, then we would have lost thousands of dollars,” she went on to say.

Other options at the people’s disposal are offers from friends to stay over in regions that they believe are safe from Israel should a full-scale war erupt.

Another option is staying in hotels or vacation homes in areas deemed safe, said Nada, a resident of the South and mother of one.

“No one will say no to you if you have the money. You will pay for your safety,” she added.

She revealed that she spoke to the owner of a vacation rental in the Batroun region north of Beirut where she had previously stayed. He promised her that he would give her priority to rent the place should the need arise.

For people who have the financial means, seeking temporary safe haven is not a challenge. But for those whose earnings barely help them get by day by day, leaving home is not an option.

“We don’t want to be humiliated. We will not seek refuge in schools,” a resident of Dahieh told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Our home protects us. Any displacement will humiliate us; we are praying to God to spare us from this,” he added.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.