Will Sinwar’s Strong Personality Help Stop the War?

Photos of Israelis killed in the Oct. 7 attack or kidnapped by Hamas (AP)
Photos of Israelis killed in the Oct. 7 attack or kidnapped by Hamas (AP)
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Will Sinwar’s Strong Personality Help Stop the War?

Photos of Israelis killed in the Oct. 7 attack or kidnapped by Hamas (AP)
Photos of Israelis killed in the Oct. 7 attack or kidnapped by Hamas (AP)

The Hamas movement’s announcement that it had chosen Yehya Sinwar as head of its political bureau came as a surprise to many observers, including Palestinians, especially in the Gaza Strip.

This announcement raises many questions about the implications of choosing Sinwar, given the possibility that he might face a fate similar to his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated last week in Tehran.

For Gazans who are eager to end the war, the more pressing concern is whether Sinwar’s leadership will bring them closer to peace or push them further away from it.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, political analyst Mustafa Ibrahim said that choosing Sinwar to succeed Haniyeh sends a message of defiance to all parties. It also signifies that all Hamas leaders support the Oct. 7 attack and that, as a movement, Hamas is committed to continuing the resistance and will not back down from its positions.

Ibrahim does not believe that Sinwar will retreat from the flexibility the movement recently demonstrated during the ceasefire negotiations.

“He was at the heart of the talks and was not distant or uninvolved, as some Israeli reports suggested,” the political analyst stated.

Diaa Hassan, specialist in Palestinian affairs, agreed with Ibrahim. He told Asharq Al-Awsat that, contrary to the prevailing belief that Sinwar is an obstacle to any agreement, in many stages he “showed greater flexibility than other leaders within the movement towards reaching a deal.”

Meanwhile, the people of Gaza, who are suffering under a brutal war, have expressed fear over the decision to choose Sinwar.

Ahmed Abu Zekri, a resident of the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood north of Gaza City, said: “I don’t know if this helps us, and I don’t care what anyone says. I will only welcome what will stop this war.”

As for Ansam Daoud, a resident of the Tal al-Hawa neighborhood, she points out that Sinwar was “a beloved figure for us, but after the massacres and destruction that befell us, many of us now see him as the reason for all of this.”

She continued: “Therefore, his appointment as leader of the Hamas movement was surprising and shocking, especially since the majority of citizens, including myself, prefer a person from outside the Gaza Strip who show more interest in us, as Haniyeh did.”



Fearing Israeli Strikes, Residents Flee South Beirut Hezbollah Stronghold

 A man walks on an overpass beneath a giant billboard that reads "Enough, we are tired, Lebanon doesn't want war" on a street in Beirut on August 7, 2024, amid regional tensions during the ongoing war between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip. (AFP)
A man walks on an overpass beneath a giant billboard that reads "Enough, we are tired, Lebanon doesn't want war" on a street in Beirut on August 7, 2024, amid regional tensions during the ongoing war between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip. (AFP)
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Fearing Israeli Strikes, Residents Flee South Beirut Hezbollah Stronghold

 A man walks on an overpass beneath a giant billboard that reads "Enough, we are tired, Lebanon doesn't want war" on a street in Beirut on August 7, 2024, amid regional tensions during the ongoing war between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip. (AFP)
A man walks on an overpass beneath a giant billboard that reads "Enough, we are tired, Lebanon doesn't want war" on a street in Beirut on August 7, 2024, amid regional tensions during the ongoing war between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip. (AFP)

Batoul and her family have been scrambling to secure housing outside Beirut's southern suburbs where an Israeli strike killed a senior Hezbollah commander last week, but spiking demand has sent prices soaring.

Many in the southern suburbs -- a packed residential area known as Dahieh which is also a Hezbollah bastion -- have been trying to leave, fearing full-blown war between the Iran-backed group and Israel in the wake of the commander's killing.

"We are with the resistance (Hezbollah) to death," said Batoul, a 29-year-old journalist, declining to give her last name as the matter is sensitive.

"But it's normal to be scared... and look for a safe haven," she told AFP.

Iran and its regional allies have vowed revenge for the killing, blamed on Israel, of Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week, just hours after the Israeli strike in Beirut's southern suburbs killed Hezbollah's top military commander Fuad Shukr.

Hezbollah has traded near-daily fire with Israeli forces in support of ally Hamas since the Palestinian militant group's October 7 attack on Israel triggered war in Gaza.

After the twin killings, fears have mounted of an all-out war, with foreign airlines suspending Beirut flights and countries urging their nationals to leave.

Last week's Beirut strike also killed an Iranian adviser and five civilians -- three women and two children.

"Whoever says they want to stay in Dahieh while it's being bombed is lying to themself," Batoul said.

- 'No choice' -

On Tuesday, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said his Shiite movement and Iran were "obliged to respond" to Israel "whatever the consequences".

Batoul said she had been trying unsuccessfully to rent in "safe areas" -- unaffiliated to Hezbollah -- outside Beirut, but landlords were charging "exorbitant prices".

She said one landlord cancelled suddenly even after she agreed to pay six months' rent in advance for a flat in the mountain town of Sawfar.

A 55-year-old teacher and Hezbollah supporter, who requested anonymity because the matter is sensitive, said she felt lucky to find a flat about 15 kilometers (nine miles) outside Beirut.

But it came with a price tag of $1,500 a month, in a country battered by more than four years of economic crisis.

The teacher, also a Dahieh resident, said price gouging was rampant, noting another apartment was listed online for $1,500 a month "but when we arrived, they asked for $2,000".

"They know we have no choice. When there is a war, people will pay any amount of money to be safe," she said.

But "many people will stay (in Dahieh) because they cannot afford to rent," she added.

Riyad Bou Fakhreddine, a broker who rents out homes in the Mount Lebanon area near Beirut, said apartments were being snapped up "within half an hour to an hour of being listed".

Some landlords have asked him to raise apartments normally priced at around $500 a month to as high as $2,000, he said.

He said he refused.

"I tell them I'm not a crisis profiteer. I don't want to take advantage of people's fears," he said.

- 'Polarization' -

Almost 10 months of cross-border violence have killed some 558 people in Lebanon, most of them fighters but also including at least 116 civilians, according to an AFP tally.

On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, 22 soldiers and 25 civilians have been killed, according to army figures.

Ali, who rents serviced apartments in central Beirut, said his phone had "not stopped ringing" ahead of Nasrallah's speech.

"I booked 10 flats in two days," he said.

"Many people walked in and booked on the spot... Or called me and were here within an hour," said the 32-year-old, who requested to be identified only by his first name.

In 2006, Hezbollah fought a devastating war with Israel, whose air force bombarded Beirut's southern suburbs nightly for a month, flattening hundreds of apartment blocks.

Back then, many people from across Lebanon's sectarian divides expressed support for Hezbollah and solidarity with the Shiite Muslim community, many of whom lost their homes and livelihoods.

But this time, Dahieh resident Batoul said solidarity was lacking, with politicians divided after Hezbollah decided unilaterally to begin attacking Israeli positions on October 8.

In 2006, "there wasn't such polarization," she said.

Landlords and others profiting from high demand on housing now are simply driven by greed, Batoul said.