Will Sinwar’s Strong Personality Help Stop the War?

Photos of Israelis killed in the Oct. 7 attack or kidnapped by Hamas (AP)
Photos of Israelis killed in the Oct. 7 attack or kidnapped by Hamas (AP)
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Will Sinwar’s Strong Personality Help Stop the War?

Photos of Israelis killed in the Oct. 7 attack or kidnapped by Hamas (AP)
Photos of Israelis killed in the Oct. 7 attack or kidnapped by Hamas (AP)

The Hamas movement’s announcement that it had chosen Yehya Sinwar as head of its political bureau came as a surprise to many observers, including Palestinians, especially in the Gaza Strip.

This announcement raises many questions about the implications of choosing Sinwar, given the possibility that he might face a fate similar to his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated last week in Tehran.

For Gazans who are eager to end the war, the more pressing concern is whether Sinwar’s leadership will bring them closer to peace or push them further away from it.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, political analyst Mustafa Ibrahim said that choosing Sinwar to succeed Haniyeh sends a message of defiance to all parties. It also signifies that all Hamas leaders support the Oct. 7 attack and that, as a movement, Hamas is committed to continuing the resistance and will not back down from its positions.

Ibrahim does not believe that Sinwar will retreat from the flexibility the movement recently demonstrated during the ceasefire negotiations.

“He was at the heart of the talks and was not distant or uninvolved, as some Israeli reports suggested,” the political analyst stated.

Diaa Hassan, specialist in Palestinian affairs, agreed with Ibrahim. He told Asharq Al-Awsat that, contrary to the prevailing belief that Sinwar is an obstacle to any agreement, in many stages he “showed greater flexibility than other leaders within the movement towards reaching a deal.”

Meanwhile, the people of Gaza, who are suffering under a brutal war, have expressed fear over the decision to choose Sinwar.

Ahmed Abu Zekri, a resident of the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood north of Gaza City, said: “I don’t know if this helps us, and I don’t care what anyone says. I will only welcome what will stop this war.”

As for Ansam Daoud, a resident of the Tal al-Hawa neighborhood, she points out that Sinwar was “a beloved figure for us, but after the massacres and destruction that befell us, many of us now see him as the reason for all of this.”

She continued: “Therefore, his appointment as leader of the Hamas movement was surprising and shocking, especially since the majority of citizens, including myself, prefer a person from outside the Gaza Strip who show more interest in us, as Haniyeh did.”



Nearly 40,000 and Counting: The Struggle to Keep Track of Gaza Deaths

A man carries the shrouded body of a child killed in an Israeli bombardment to the hospital morgue in the south Gaza city of Rafah - AFP
A man carries the shrouded body of a child killed in an Israeli bombardment to the hospital morgue in the south Gaza city of Rafah - AFP
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Nearly 40,000 and Counting: The Struggle to Keep Track of Gaza Deaths

A man carries the shrouded body of a child killed in an Israeli bombardment to the hospital morgue in the south Gaza city of Rafah - AFP
A man carries the shrouded body of a child killed in an Israeli bombardment to the hospital morgue in the south Gaza city of Rafah - AFP

With much of Gaza reduced to rubble by 10 months of war, counting the dead has become a challenge for the health ministry, as the death toll nears 40,000.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the daily figures put out by the ministry and US President Joe Biden did so too in the early stages of the war.

But several United Nations agencies that operate in Gaza have said the figures are credible and they are frequently cited by international organizations.

Two AFP correspondents witnessed health facilities enter deaths in the ministry's database.

Gaza health officials first identify the bodies of the dead, by the visual recognition of a relative or friend, or by the recovery of personal items.

The deceased's information is then entered in the health ministry's digital database, usually including name, gender, birth date and ID number.

When bodies cannot be identified because they are unrecognisable or when no one claims them, staff record the death under a number, alongside all the information they were able to gather.

Any distinguishing marks that may help with later identification, whether personal items or a birthmark, are collected and photographed.

Gaza's health ministry has issued several statements setting out its procedures for compiling the death toll.

In public hospitals under the direct supervision of the territory's Hamas government, the "personal information and identity number" of every Palestinian killed during the war are entered in the hospital's database as soon as they are pronounced dead.

The data is then sent to the health ministry's central registry on a daily basis.

For those who die in private hospitals and clinics, their information is taken down on a form that must be sent to the ministry within 24 hours to be added to the central registry, a ministry statement said.

The ministry's "information center" then verifies the data entries to "ensure they do not contain any duplicates or mistakes", before saving them in the database, the statement added.

Gaza residents are also encouraged by Palestinian authorities to report any deaths in their families on a designated government website. The data is used for the ministry's verifications.

The ministry is staffed with civil servants that answer to the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority as well as to the Hamas-led government in Gaza.

An investigation conducted by Airways, an NGO focused on the impact of war on civilians, analysed the data entries for 3,000 of the dead and found "a high correlation" between the ministry's data and what Palestinian civilians reported online, with 75 percent of publicly reported names also appearing on the ministry's list.

The study found that the ministry's figures had become "less accurate" as the war dragged on, a development it attributed to the heavy damage to health infrastructure resulting from the war.

For instance, at southern Gaza's Nasser Hospital, one of the few still at least partly functioning, only 50 out of 400 computers still work, its director Atef al-Hout told AFP.

Israeli authorities frequently criticize the ministry's figures for failing to distinguish between combatants and civilians. But neither the army nor Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu deny the scale of the overall toll.

The press office of Gaza's Hamas government estimates that nearly 70 percent of the roughly 40,000 dead are women (about 11,000) or children (at least 16,300).

Several UN agencies, including the agency in charge of Palestinian refugees (UNRWA), have said the ministry's figures are credible.

"In the past -- the five, six cycles of conflict in the Gaza Strip -- these figures were considered as credible and no one ever really challenged these figures,", the agency's chief Philippe Lazzarini said in October.

A study by British medical review The Lancet estimated that 186,000 deaths can be attributed to the war in Gaza, directly or indirectly as a result of the humanitarian crisis it has triggered.