Strike on Hezbollah Arms Depots Shows Extent of Israeli Intelligence Breach

This picture taken during a guided tour by the Hezbollah media office shows a man salvaging the remains of a destroyed greenhouse at the site of reported overnight Israeli bombardment on Sarein in the Bekaa valley in east-central Lebanon on August 20, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
This picture taken during a guided tour by the Hezbollah media office shows a man salvaging the remains of a destroyed greenhouse at the site of reported overnight Israeli bombardment on Sarein in the Bekaa valley in east-central Lebanon on August 20, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
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Strike on Hezbollah Arms Depots Shows Extent of Israeli Intelligence Breach

This picture taken during a guided tour by the Hezbollah media office shows a man salvaging the remains of a destroyed greenhouse at the site of reported overnight Israeli bombardment on Sarein in the Bekaa valley in east-central Lebanon on August 20, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
This picture taken during a guided tour by the Hezbollah media office shows a man salvaging the remains of a destroyed greenhouse at the site of reported overnight Israeli bombardment on Sarein in the Bekaa valley in east-central Lebanon on August 20, 2024. (Photo by AFP)

Israel’s targeting of a Hezbollah arms depot in Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa region on Monday has raised questions about whether Israel has adopted a new form of escalation and about the extent its intelligence have breached the Iran-backed party.

Israel usually targets Hezbollah arms depots in the South, but the attack in the Bekaa was a precedent.

“Following the strikes, secondary explosions were identified, indicating the presence of large amounts of weapons in the facilities struck,” the Israeli military said in a statement.

Lebanon’s Health Ministry said eleven people were wounded in the attack.

Hezbollah retaliated on Tuesday by firing rockets at the headquarters of the 210th Golan Division in the Nafah barracks and the Artillery Battalion and the Armored Brigade of the 210th Division in the Yarden barracks. It also struck the 146th Division headquarters in Gaaton.

Israeli media said Hezbollah fired over 80 rockets from Lebanon.

Israel carried out a raid on Aita al-Shaab and Talloussa in the Marjeyoun region in the South, reported Lebanon’s National News Agency.

The Bekaa attack took place days after Hezbollah released a video showing one of its largest underground tunnels. A truck loaded with large missiles was seen moving in the tunnels.

Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, said the Bekaa attack was part of an Israeli escalation and strategy to permanently close the front with Lebanon.

Tel Aviv wants to eliminate Hezbollah’s threat through diplomacy or force, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Attacks on leading party figures and weapons depots are all part of preparations for a military operation or pressure to improve Israel’s negotiating position, he explained.

Moreover, he remarked that it has become obvious that Israeli intelligence has managed to breach Hezbollah, allowing it to assassinate key figures and locate arms caches.

Moreover, he ruled out the possibility of a ceasefire or comprehensive settlement being reached before the US presidential election in November.

So, the coming months will witness more military operations and negotiations to avert a major war which Iran has no interest in waging, Nader stressed.

Meanwhile, founder and CEO of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) Riad Kahwaji said the Bekaa attack continues to confirm the extent Hezbollah is exposed by Israeli intelligence.

The breach has allowed Tel Aviv to assassinate dozens of its members and commanders, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Whoever can kill these figures naturally is aware of the party’s capabilities and location of its bases and arms depots, he remarked.

By carrying out the attack on the Bekaa right after Hezbollah released the footage of its tunnels, Israel is saying that it is aware of what the party is capable of and possesses and where it is located, he noted.

Israel carried out a preemptive strike while everyone was waiting for Hezbollah to retaliate to its assassination of top military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut last month, he added.



Legal Threats Close in on Israel's Netanyahu, Could Impact Ongoing Wars

The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT
The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT
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Legal Threats Close in on Israel's Netanyahu, Could Impact Ongoing Wars

The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT
The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces legal perils at home and abroad that point to a turbulent future for the Israeli leader and could influence the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, analysts and officials say.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) stunned Israel on Thursday by issuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the 13-month-old Gaza conflict. The bombshell came less than two weeks before Netanyahu is due to testify in a corruption trial that has dogged him for years and could end his political career if he is found guilty. He has denied any wrongdoing. While the domestic bribery trial has polarized public opinion, the prime minister has received widespread support from across the political spectrum following the ICC move, giving him a boost in troubled times.
Netanyahu has denounced the court's decision as antisemitic and denied charges that he and Gallant targeted Gazan civilians and deliberately starved them.
"Israelis get really annoyed if they think the world is against them and rally around their leader, even if he has faced a lot of criticism," said Yonatan Freeman, an international relations expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
"So anyone expecting that the ICC ruling will end this government, and what they see as a flawed (war) policy, is going to get the opposite," he added.
A senior diplomat said one initial consequence was that Israel might be less likely to reach a rapid ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon or secure a deal to bring back hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza.
"This terrible decision has ... badly harmed the chances of a deal in Lebanon and future negotiations on the issue of the hostages," said Ofir Akunis, Israel's consul general in New York.
"Terrible damage has been done because these organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas ... have received backing from the ICC and thus they are likely to make the price higher because they have the support of the ICC," he told Reuters.
While Hamas welcomed the ICC decision, there has been no indication that either it or Hezbollah see this as a chance to put pressure on Israel, which has inflicted huge losses on both groups over the past year, as well as on civilian populations.
IN THE DOCK
The ICC warrants highlight the disconnect between the way the war is viewed here and how it is seen by many abroad, with Israelis focused on their own losses and convinced the nation's army has sought to minimize civilian casualties.
Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, said the ICC move would likely harden resolve and give the war cabinet license to hit Gaza and Lebanon harder still.
"There's a strong strand of Israeli feeling that runs deep, which says 'if we're being condemned for what we are doing, we might just as well go full gas'," he told Reuters.
While Netanyahu has received wide support at home over the ICC action, the same is not true of the domestic graft case, where he is accused of bribery, breach of trust and fraud.
The trial opened in 2020 and Netanyahu is finally scheduled to take the stand next month after the court rejected his latest request to delay testimony on the grounds that he had been too busy overseeing the war to prepare his defense.
He was due to give evidence last year but the date was put back because of the war. His critics have accused him of prolonging the Gaza conflict to delay judgment day and remain in power, which he denies. Always a divisive figure in Israel, public trust in Netanyahu fell sharply in the wake of the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas assault on southern Israel that caught his government off guard, cost around 1,200 lives.
Israel's subsequent campaign has killed more than 44,000 people and displaced nearly all Gaza's population at least once, triggering a humanitarian catastrophe, according to Gaza officials.
The prime minister has refused advice from the state attorney general to set up an independent commission into what went wrong and Israel's subsequent conduct of the war.
He is instead looking to establish an inquiry made up only of politicians, which critics say would not provide the sort of accountability demanded by the ICC.
Popular Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth said the failure to order an independent investigation had prodded the ICC into action. "Netanyahu preferred to take the risk of arrest warrants, just as long as he did not have to form such a commission," it wrote on Friday.
ARREST THREAT
The prime minister faces a difficult future living under the shadow of an ICC warrant, joining the ranks of only a few leaders to have suffered similar humiliation, including Libya's Muammar Gaddafi and Serbia's Slobodan Milosevic.
It also means he risks arrest if he travels to any of the court's 124 signatory states, including most of Europe.
One place he can safely visit is the United States, which is not a member of the ICC, and Israeli leaders hope US President-elect Donald Trump will bring pressure to bear by imposing sanctions on ICC officials.
Mike Waltz, Trump's nominee for national security advisor, has already promised tough action: "You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC & UN come January,” he wrote on X on Friday. In the meantime, Israeli officials are talking to their counterparts in Western capitals, urging them to ignore the arrest warrants, as Hungary has already promised to do.
However, the charges are not going to disappear soon, if at all, meaning fellow leaders will be increasingly reluctant to have relations with Netanyahu, said Yuval Shany, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute.
"In a very direct sense, there is going to be more isolation for the Israeli state going forward," he told Reuters.