There has been recently a surge of speculation about Ismail Qaani, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, with reports presenting conflicting information.
Some leaks suggest Qaani may have been injured in an Israeli attack abroad or is being investigated for alleged collaboration with Israel. Iranian officials have provided little information, leaving his whereabouts uncertain and raising questions about his well-being.
Timeline of Events
Qaani was last seen on September 29 at the Lebanese Hezbollah office in Tehran, where he was offering condolences after the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General in Beirut’s southern suburbs.
Five days later, during a eulogy for Nasrallah, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei spoke in Tehran, notably without Qaani and other leaders present.
On October 6, Tasnim news agency published photos of Khamenei presenting an award to Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Aerospace Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, again without Qaani in attendance.
On October 9, Iran hinted at Qaani’s fate, stating that Khamenei would soon honor him with the same award. Tasnim reported that Qaani is in “good health.”
By October 10, numerous reports indicated that Qaani might be under investigation, deepening the confusion surrounding his situation.
Speculation Grows Around Qaani’s Status
Since Qaani’s last public appearance, speculation about his fate has intensified, with three key theories emerging by October 10.
The first theory arose immediately after Nasrallah’s assassination, claiming Qaani was either injured or killed. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) quickly denied these claims.
On October 5, Israel struck a building in the Beirut suburbs, alleging it was targeting Hashem Safieddine, Hezbollah's Executive Council chief. This led to speculation that Qaani was there and may have been harmed.
The IRGC took three days to deny these reports, with Deputy Commander Eiraj Masjedi confirming that Qaani was unharmed.
On October 10, military expert Babak Taghvaei posted on X (formerly Twitter) that Qaani was under investigation, with some reports claiming he suffered a heart attack “due to torture.”
In response, IRGC-affiliated news agencies Tasnim and Fars denied Qaani’s arrest, with Tasnim dismissing a report from “10 sources” and stating, “We can confidently say that 20 informed sources claim the ten sources are completely false.”
Confusion Surrounds Qaani's Status Amid Competing Narratives
Verifying leaks about Qaani’s status is challenging due to the IRGC’s complex media network, which shapes public opinion.
One theory suggests Tehran is shocked by the rapid loss of Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah’s leadership, leading them to believe significant intelligence breaches have occurred. As a result, they may be withholding information about Qaani’s location to protect him.
However, skepticism about Iran’s credibility has given rise to another theory: infighting within the IRGC may lead some factions to undermine Qaani’s image and distance themselves from him.
Doubts are also growing about Qaani’s ability to fill the void left by Qassem Soleimani, especially as tensions with Israel escalate and the conflict shifts to targeting Iranian-affiliated groups.
Another theory suggests that creating public speculation about Qaani’s fate could prompt Iranians to reveal his true status and location, particularly since he is reportedly on an Israeli target list.
Despite the uncertainty, Qaani’s fate won’t remain a secret for long. Iran may soon introduce new theories, especially if IRGC statements suggest that Khamenei will award Qaani the “Order of Fateh.”
