The Unsinkable Donald Trump

Republican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2024 in New York City. (Getty Images/AFP)
Republican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2024 in New York City. (Getty Images/AFP)
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The Unsinkable Donald Trump

Republican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2024 in New York City. (Getty Images/AFP)
Republican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2024 in New York City. (Getty Images/AFP)

He was impeached twice, found liable in fraud and sexual abuse lawsuits, convicted of dozens of felonies and has been declared politically dead again and again -- but count Donald Trump out at your peril.

With just over a week to go until his third presidential election -- and a little over three months after he was literally shot at -- the Republican tycoon's political stamina is as robust as ever.

The 78-year-old has emerged from a summer of missteps and a lurch into authoritarian rhetoric with better odds of securing a second White House term than at any point since that July assassination attempt in a field in Pennsylvania.

Trump detractors have watched the unforced errors in his 2024 campaign with a mix of delight, frustration and bewilderment as the man whose downfall has long been predicted has managed to keep his supporters on board.

Depending on who you ask, Trump's biggest fumbles have been a divisive vice-presidential pick, a laissez-faire attitude to his daily campaign work and an excessive focus on outgoing president Biden.

Trump's own words have, as ever, been extraordinary -- from wild conspiracy theories about immigrants eating people's pets and lies about hurricanes to authoritarian threats of revenge against his opponents.

- Secret sauce -

And then there's what Democrats have labelled the "weird" stuff -- the personal insults and name-calling, rambling interviews and rally speeches, and a campaign event that ended with Trump swaying onstage to music for 40 minutes.

The oldest major-party presidential candidate ever, Trump is out on bail in two criminal cases that could mean him seeing out his days in jail and in theory he is due to be sentenced in a third just after the election.

And yet the race remains a toss-up, with a trend line moving incrementally in Trump's favor that suggests he is weathering Democratic rival Kamala Harris's warnings that he is unfit for office.

For some analysts, Trump's secret sauce is his ability to play the part of the heroic outsider -- targeted by corrupt elites for his insurgent campaign to shake up politics on behalf of the forgotten millions.

Political consultant Andrew Koneschusky sees four planks to Trump's campaign -- an appeal to rudderless young men, exploitation of anger over inflation, the weaponization of race and gender and the scapegoating of immigrants.

"Trump's campaign strategy relies heavily on tapping into negative emotions, which typically register more strongly than positive ones," said the analyst, a former press secretary to Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer.

"In some cases, this is distasteful or revolting. For some voters it might also be effective."

- 'Avenging angel' -

Donald Nieman, a political analyst and professor at Binghamton University in New York state, believes Trump's unorthodox conduct -- the "rants, conspiracy theories, vulgarities, unvarnished racist and sexist attacks" -- thrill a base that sees Trump as their "avenging angel."

"Many others hold their noses and support him because they believe he will be better on issues they care about -- the economy, immigration, abortion," Nieman said.

Dubbed "Teflon Don" by US headline writers, Trump has a salesman's instinct for self-publicity, honed in his days as a brash 1980s New York developer trying to force his way into the celebrity gossip columns.

And while liberals and much of the media look at Trump's unorthodox, freewheeling style -- his rally speeches about windmills and fictional serial killers -- as disqualifying, his fans see authenticity.

Utah-based political analyst and PR expert Adrienne Uthe believes Trump and his base share an emotional connection missing in most political campaigns, as he taps into their patriotism, distrust of the media and fear of losing their culture.

"His supporters see him as a champion against what they perceive as a corrupt establishment. Despite controversies, Trump frames himself as a fighter, unyielding in the face of opposition," she told AFP.

"Many of his followers admire this resilience, viewing him as someone who defends their values and disrupts a political system they believe has ignored them for decades."



Israeli Strikes Hit Southern Lebanon, but Tense Ceasefire Holds

Smoke billows over Beirut's southern suburbs after Israeli strikes, amid hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon, November 25, 2024. (Reuters)
Smoke billows over Beirut's southern suburbs after Israeli strikes, amid hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon, November 25, 2024. (Reuters)
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Israeli Strikes Hit Southern Lebanon, but Tense Ceasefire Holds

Smoke billows over Beirut's southern suburbs after Israeli strikes, amid hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon, November 25, 2024. (Reuters)
Smoke billows over Beirut's southern suburbs after Israeli strikes, amid hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon, November 25, 2024. (Reuters)

Israeli jets Sunday launched an airstrike over a southern Lebanese border village, while troops shelled other border towns and villages still under Israeli control, Lebanon's state-run National News Agency reported.

The attacks come days after a US-brokered ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah went into effect. There were no immediate reports of casualties.

The Israeli military did not immediately comment on the strike in the village of Yaroun, nor did the Hezbollah. Israel continues to call on displaced Lebanese not to return to dozens of southern villages in this current stage of the ceasefire. It also continues to impose a daily curfew for people moving across the Litani River between 5 pm and 7 am, The AP reported.

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and the Lebanese military have been critical of Israeli strikes and overflights since the ceasefire went into effect, accusing Israel of violating the agreement. The military said it had filed complaints, but no clear military action has been taken by Hezbollah in response, meaning that the tense cessation of hostilities has not yet broken down.

When Israel has issued statements about these strikes, it says they were done to thwart possible Hezbollah attacks.

The United States military announced Friday that Major General Jasper Jeffers alongside senior US envoy Amos Hochstein will co-chair a new US-led monitoring committee that includes France, the UN peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon known as UNIFIL, Lebanon, and Israel. Hochstein led over a year of shuttle diplomacy to broker the ceasefire deal, and his role will be temporary until a permanent civilian co-chair is appointed.

Lebanon meanwhile is trying to pick up the pieces and return to some level of normal life after the war that decimated large swaths of its south and east, displacing an estimated 1.2 million people. The Lebanese military said it detonated unexploded munitions left over from Israeli strikes in southern and eastern Lebanon. Elsewhere, the Lebanese Civil Defense said it removed five bodies from under the rubble in two southern Lebanese towns over the past 24 hours.

The first phase of the ceasefire is a 60-day cessation of hostilities where Hezbollah militants are supposed to withdraw from southern Lebanon north of the Litani River and Israeli troops withdraw from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. Lebanese troops are to deploy in large numbers in the south, effectively being the only armed force in control of the south alongside UNIFIL peacekeepers.

But challenges still remain at this current stage. Many families who want to bury their dead deep in southern Lebanon are unable to do so at this point.

The Lebanese Health Ministry and military allocated a plot of land in the coastal city of Tyre for those people to be temporarily laid to rest. Dr. Wissam Ghazal of the Health Ministry in Tyre said almost 200 bodies have been temporarily buried in that plot of land, until the situation near the border calms down.

“Until now, we haven’t been able to go to our village, and our hearts are burning because our martyrs are buried in this manner,” said Om Ali, who asked to be called by a nickname that means “Ali’s mother” in Arabic. Her husband was a combatant killed in the war from the border town of Aita el-Shaab, just a stone’s throw from the tense border.

“We hope the crisis ends soon so we can go and bury them properly as soon as possible, because truly, leaving the entrusted ones buried in a non-permanent place like this is very difficult,” she said.

In the meantime, cash-strapped Lebanon is trying to fundraise as much money as it can to help rebuild the country the war cost some $8.5 billion in damages and losses according to the World Bank, and to help recruit and train troops to deploy 10,000 personnel into southern Lebanon. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri also called for parliament to convene to elect a president next month to break a gridlock of over two years and reactivate the country's crippled state institutions.