COP29: What Is the Latest Science on Climate Change?

A flare burns off excess gas from a gas plant in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 21, 2019. (Reuters)
A flare burns off excess gas from a gas plant in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 21, 2019. (Reuters)
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COP29: What Is the Latest Science on Climate Change?

A flare burns off excess gas from a gas plant in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 21, 2019. (Reuters)
A flare burns off excess gas from a gas plant in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 21, 2019. (Reuters)

This year's UN climate summit - COP29 - is being held during yet another record-breaking year of higher global temperatures, adding pressure to negotiations aimed at curbing climate change.

The last global scientific consensus on climate change was released in 2021 through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, however scientists say that evidence shows global warming and its impacts are unfolding faster than expected.

Here is some of the latest climate research:

1.5C BREACHED?

The world may already have hit 1.5 degree Celsius (2.7 F) of warming above the average pre-industrial temperature - a critical threshold beyond which it is at risk of irreversible and extreme climate change, scientists say.

A group of researchers made the suggestion in a study released on Monday based on an analysis of 2,000 years of atmospheric gases trapped in Antarctic ice cores that extends the understanding of pre-industrial temperature trends.

Scientists have typically measured today's temperatures against a baseline temperature average for 1850-1900. By that measure, the world is now at nearly 1.3 C (2.4 F) of warming.

But the new data suggests a longer pre-industrial baseline, based on temperature data spanning the year 13 to 1700, the study published in the journal Nature Geoscience said.

Either way, 2024 is certain to be the warmest year on record.

SUPERCHARGED HURRICANES

Not only is ocean warming fueling stronger Atlantic storms, it is also causing them to intensify more rapidly, for example, jumping from a Category 1 to a Category 3 storm in just hours.

Growing evidence shows this is true of other ocean basins.

Hurricane Milton needed only one day in the Gulf of Mexico in October to go from tropical storm to the Gulf's second-most powerful hurricane on record, slamming Florida's west coast.

Warmer air can also hold more moisture, helping storms carry and eventually release more rain. As a result, hurricanes are delivering flooding even in mountain towns like Asheville, North Carolina, inundated in September by Hurricane Helene.

WILDFIRE DEATHS

Global warming is drying waterways and sapping moisture from forests, creating conditions for bigger and hotter wildfires from the US West and Canada to southern Europe and Russia's Far East creating more damaging smoke.

Research published last month in Nature Climate Change calculated that about 13% of deaths associated with toxic wildfire smoke, roughly 12,000 deaths, during the 2010s could be attributed to the climate effect on wildfires.

CORAL BLEACHING

With the world in the throes of a fourth mass coral bleaching event — the largest on record — scientists fear the world's reefs have passed a point of no return.

Scientists will be studying bleached reefs from Australia to Brazil for signs of recovery over the next few years if temperatures fall.

AMAZON ALARM

Brazil's Amazon is in the grips of its worst and most widespread drought since records began in 1950. River levels sank to all-time lows this year, while fires ravaged the rainforest.

This adds concern to scientific findings earlier this year that between 10% and 47% of the Amazon will face combined stresses of heat and drought from climate change, as well as other threats, by 2050.

This could push the Amazon past a tipping point, with the jungle no longer able to produce enough moisture to quench its own trees, at which point the ecosystem could transition to degraded forests or sandy savannas.

Globally, forests appear to be struggling.

A July study found that forests overall last year failed to absorb as much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as in the past, due largely to the Amazon drought and wildfires in Canada.

That means a record amount of CO2 entered the atmosphere.

VOLCANIC SURGE

Scientists fear climate change could even boost volcanic eruptions.

In Iceland, volcanoes appear to be responding to rapid glacier retreat. As ice melts, less pressure is exerted on the Earth's crust and mantle.

Volcanologists worry this could destabilize magma reservoirs and appears to be leading to more magma being created, building up pressure underground.

Some 245 volcanoes across the world lie under or near ice and could be at risk.

OCEAN SLOWDOWN

The warming of the Atlantic could hasten the collapse of a key current system, which scientists warn could already be sputtering.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which transports warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic, has helped to keep European winters milder for centuries.

Research in 2018 showed that AMOC has weakened by about 15% since 1950, while research published in February in the journal Science Advances, suggested that it could be closer to a critical slowdown than previously thought.



Jamal Mustafa Recalls to Asharq Al-Awsat Years with Saddam, his Imprisonment and Execution

Dr. Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat Editor-in-Chief Ghassan Charbel during the interview.
Dr. Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat Editor-in-Chief Ghassan Charbel during the interview.
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Jamal Mustafa Recalls to Asharq Al-Awsat Years with Saddam, his Imprisonment and Execution

Dr. Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat Editor-in-Chief Ghassan Charbel during the interview.
Dr. Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat Editor-in-Chief Ghassan Charbel during the interview.

Dr. Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan, late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s son-in-law and second secretary, broke his silence and sat down with Asharq Al-Awsat to recall his time in prison and his years with the late president.

It’s not easy being Saddam’s son-in-law, son of his tribe and to rally the tribes to defend Baghdad only to discover that it has been occupied by the Americans, who have printed your image on playing cards and named you Iraq’s ninth most-wanted man. It’s not easy to seek safety in Syria, only to be turned away and then find yourself in prison.

It’s not easy to live in solitary confinement, and to be accused, while in prison, of leading a resistance and of sending booby-trapped cars. It’s not easy to learn while in prison that Saddam was detained by the American forces. It’s not easy to be summoned to trial in the Dujail case only to come face-to-face with Saddam himself.

It’s not easy to learn that “Mr. President” was executed at dawn on Eid al-Adha and that his corpse was strewn in front of then Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's house as he was celebrating his daughter’s wedding.

It’s not easy to learn from a judge in 2011 that there was no reason for you to remain on trial and that he was capable of releasing you in exchange for a hefty sum of dollars. Mustafa did not have that sort of money, so he was forced to remain in prison for nearly a decade before being released in 2021 due to a lack of evidence.

Weeks ago, I came across an old photo of Saddam with his whole family. Pictured were Saddam, his wife Sajidah, and his sons Uday and Qusay, daughter Raghad and her husband Hussein Kamel al-Majid, daughter Rana and her husband Saddam Kamel al-Majid, and daughter Hala and husband Mustafa. Five of the six men in the photo have been killed and only Mustafa remains.

Saddam Hussein surrounded by his family. (AFP)

He was born in Tikrit on October 1, 1964. He joined the president’s guard and was encouraged to continue his studies, earning a degree in political science. He played a major role in promoting sports and enjoyed strong ties with athletes. He was tasked with the tribe file and consequently forged extensive tis with them. He was trusted by Saddam and joined government meetings.

Mustafa was arrested on April 21, 2003, and released from al-Kadhimiya prison on June 17, 2021. He headed to Baghdad and later Erbil where he met with Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani. He then left Iraq for the Qatari capital Doha where he resides with Saddam’s widow Sajidah.

I approached Mustafa for an interview after he had shied away from the media, and he agreed to break his silence. As is tradition with tribes, he refused that I leave without a late lunch. The main meal was Habeet, the traditional Iraqi dish and Saddam’s favorite.

After leaving our meeting, I recalled what Abdul Raouf Rashid, the judge who issued the death sentence against Saddam in the Dujail case. He told me: “We acted according to the law and justice. Unfortunately, some officials turned the case into one of vengeance and gloating when they chose to execute him on Eid al-Adha. They desecrated Saddam’s corpse. Their actions are practically a gift to Saddam’s supporters who will keep his memory alive for a long time.”

I asked Mustafa about his time behind bars. He told Asharq Al-Awsat that he was on good terms with head of the Revolutionary Court Awad al-Bandar, who issued the death sentence. “He used to relay some of Saddam’s messages to me. (...) He was a good and brave man,” he said.

He recalled how he would receive cigars from Saddam that had his signature, a signal that he had received his messages. “I still have some of those cigars,” added Mustafa.

Saddam Hussein and Dr. Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan.

On Saddam’s morale during his time prison, Mustafa recalled: “The Iraqis, Arabs and Muslims know him well. They know that he was a brave and unyielding man. (...) It is no secret that he was aware that he was going to be executed. Everyone in jail was aware of this and we could not shake off the thought.”

Mustafa accused the trial of being corrupt and that any conviction could be made against Saddam to justify laying down the death penalty against him. “The trial was a farce. It was held by the Americans at Iranian orders and carried out by Iraqi agents to appease their Iranian and American masters. It was a tool to take revenge against the former regime,” stressed Mustafa.

Mustafa was with Saddam when he came under a failed assassination attempt in Dujail. “He was visiting Dujail just like any other city or village in Iraq. He met with citizens there who welcomed and celebrated his visit. He spoke to citizens and among them a woman. A sheep was slaughtered in his honor, and when we were about to get into our car, the woman splattered blood on the vehicle. We read this as a bad sign. So, we changed cars.”

“Soon after the convoy came under gunfire from gunmen hiding in nearby orchards. The president left his vehicles and several cars were damaged and people were injured. The president walked among the people to reassure them. After speaking to them, he returned to the car and headed back to the location where he had earlier delivered a speech. He delivered another speech before departing and we returned to Baghdad,” recalled Mustafa.

Saddam ordered the arrest of the suspects in the assassination attempt. “An hour after the attack Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani implied during a visit to Syria that they were behind the assassination. He said so from Damascus. This is damning evidence that Iran was behind the attack. They wanted to assassinate him. They knew that if they killed Mr. President that Iraq would fall in their hands,” he added. The suspects were eventually tried and executed.

Mustafa recalled the first day he was summoned to trial in the case. He entered the courtroom and saw Saddam there. “I remember exactly what I told him: ‘Peace be upon you, my father, father-in-law and dear leader,’” he revealed.

At the trial, Mustafa accused Iran of orchestrating several attacks in Baghdad, but the judge dismissed them, saying he was summoned to defend Saddam. Mustafa told the judge: “Mr. President is seen as a criminal by several of Iraq and the Ummah’s enemies, but he is a leader and brave son of Iraq and the Ummah.”

“You ask if I was punished for being Saddam’s son-in-law. The answer is yes. I remained in prison for 18 and a half years. Driven by spite, they only sought revenge. I paid a price and they tried to take revenge against me by keeping me in jail for so long. They came up with all sorts of charges against me, such as leading a resistance from behind bars,” continued Mustafa.

“They believed that I could have used my extensive ties to stage a coup once I was released from prison. So, they believed it was best that I remained and died there.” Mustafa was kept in solitary confinement for years. He recalled some sympathetic guards who treated him with respect because they were aware of his work in the sports sector and his vast network of relations.

Returning to Saddam, Mustafa said he met him twice while they were in prison. He recalled how painful it was to see him as he was his idol and he was surrounded by enemies on all sides. “He was a lion among them. He was firm in his principles and strove and sacrificed to uphold them.”

Dr. Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan's image on the playing cards of most-wanted Iraqis regime figures released by the US military.

Their first meeting took place in the jail and Mustafa said Saddam was in high spirits. They met the second time at court when Saddam declared that he had been tortured along with other detained leaders.

Mustafa learned of Saddam’s death when he noticed that the guards had taken away the radio the Americans had allowed them to keep so they could listen to the news. “We woke up one morning and it was gone. I also noticed a translator among our usual guard. This is a sign that something had happened,” he explained.

“Eventually we learned that Saddam was executed and martyred,” said Mustafa. “I said the following: ‘from now on Saddam will be a symbol of courage, heroism and sacrifice for all Iraqis, Arabs and Muslims. He will remain an eternal Arab leader.’ The translator translated my words to the guards, who remained silent. We then performed the prayer for the dead. Among us was Tariq Aziz, a Christian, but he also performed the prayer.”

“We were all in shock. His martyrdom was a shock to all honorable patriotic Iraqis, as well as Arabs and Muslims. He was also a great loss because he stood against the enemies. Everyone sensed his loss,” Mustafa added.

Saddam was executed on Eid al-Adha, which Mustafa said was deliberate to insult and humiliate the Arabs and Muslims.

“At the time, we heard claims that his corpse was strewn in front of Nouri al-Maliki's house. Maliki is allied to Iran. He was celebrating his daughter's wedding. The body was taken there to seal the revenge. They have never served or offered Iraq anything but revenge and destruction.”

The body was taken to Tikrit and later Al-Awja, Saddam’s birthplace, in the Salahuddin province. He was buried there and mourners from all over the world came to pay their respects. The grave remains a secret to only the most trusted people.