From Sudan to Myanmar… Five Forgotten Conflicts of 2024

Soldiers from the Armed Forces of the DRC dig trenches at a frontline military position above the town of Kibirizi, controlled by the M23 rebellion, North Kivu province, eastern DR Congo, on May 14, 2024 (AFP)
Soldiers from the Armed Forces of the DRC dig trenches at a frontline military position above the town of Kibirizi, controlled by the M23 rebellion, North Kivu province, eastern DR Congo, on May 14, 2024 (AFP)
TT

From Sudan to Myanmar… Five Forgotten Conflicts of 2024

Soldiers from the Armed Forces of the DRC dig trenches at a frontline military position above the town of Kibirizi, controlled by the M23 rebellion, North Kivu province, eastern DR Congo, on May 14, 2024 (AFP)
Soldiers from the Armed Forces of the DRC dig trenches at a frontline military position above the town of Kibirizi, controlled by the M23 rebellion, North Kivu province, eastern DR Congo, on May 14, 2024 (AFP)

In addition to the two wars in the Mideast and Ukraine-Russia that have dominated world headlines in 2024, several other conflicts are ravaging countries and regions, AFP revealed in a report on Wednesday.

Sudan

War has raged in Sudan since April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

The conflict, considered by the UN as one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, has left between 20,000 and 150,000 thousands dead and some 26 million people -- around half of Sudan's population -- facing severe food insecurity.

Also, escalating violence has pushed the humanitarian crisis to unprecedented levels, with displacement now exceeding 11 million people.

Both sides have been accused of war crimes, including targeting civilians and blocking humanitarian aid.

In October the UN alerted the “staggering scale” of sexual violence rampant since the start of the conflict.

Democratic Republic of Congo

The mineral-rich region of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, home to a string of rival rebel groups, has endured internal and cross-border violence for over 30 years.

Since launching an offensive in 2021, a largely Tutsi militia known as the March 23 movement or M23 -- named after a previous peace agreement -- has seized large swathes of territory.

The resurgence of M23 has intensified a decades-long humanitarian disaster in the region caused by conflicts, epidemics and poverty, notably in the province of North Kivu.

In early August, Angola mediated a fragile truce that stabilized the situation at the front line.

But since the end of October, the M23 has been on the march again, and continues to carry out localized offensives.

Despite violations of the ceasefire, the DRC and Rwanda are maintaining diplomatic dialogue through Angola's mediation.

Early in November, the two central African neighbors launched a committee to monitor ceasefire violations, led by Angola and including representatives from both the DRC and Rwanda.

Sahel

In Africa's volatile Sahel region, Islamist groups, rebel outfits and armed gangs rule the roost.

In Nigeria in 2009 Boko Haram, one of the main militant organizations in the Sahel region, launched an insurgency that left more than 40,000 people dead and displaced two million.

Boko Haram has since spread to neighboring countries in West Africa.

For example, the vast expanse of water and swamps in the Lake Chad region's countless islets serve as hideouts for Boko Haram and its offshoot ISIS in West Africa (ISWAP), who carry out regular attacks on the country's army and civilians.

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger also face persistent militant attacks, while any opposition to the military-led governments is repressed.

Since January, extremist attacks have caused nearly 7,000 civilian and military deaths in Burkina Faso, more than 1,500 in Niger and more than 3,600 in Mali, according to Acled -- an NGO which collects data on violent conflict.

Haiti

The situation in Haiti, already dire after decades of chronic political instability, escalated further at the end of February when armed groups launched coordinated attacks in the capital, saying they wanted to overthrow then-prime minister Ariel Henry.

Since then, gangs now control 80% of the capital Port-au-Prince and despite a Kenyan-led police support mission, backed by the US and UN, violence has continued to soar.

In November the UN said the verified casualty toll of the gang violence so far this year was 4,544 dead and the real toll, it stressed, “is likely higher still.”

Particularly violent acts target women and girls, and victims have been mutilated with machetes, stoned, decapitated, burned or buried alive.

More than 700,000 people have fled the horror, half of them children, according to the International Organization for Migration.

A Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support Mission for Haiti, backed by the United Nations Security Council and Washington, began deployment this summer.

Myanmar

The Southeast Asian nation has been gripped in a bloody conflict since 2021 when the military ousted the democratically elected government led by Nobel laureate Aung Sang Suu Kyi, who has been detained by the junta since the coup.

A bitter civil war has followed causing the death of more than 5,300 people and the displacement of some 3.3 million, according to the UN.

The military has faced growing resistance from rebel groups across the country.

In recent months, rebels attacked Mandalay, the country's second-largest city, and took control of the key road linking Myanmar with China -- its main trading partner -- and in doing so deprived the junta of a key source of revenue.



Iran Opts for Dialogue with Europe ahead of Trump's Return to Office

President Donald Trump shows a signed Presidential Memorandum after delivering a statement on the Iran nuclear deal from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, Tuesday, May 8, 2018, in Washington. (AP)
President Donald Trump shows a signed Presidential Memorandum after delivering a statement on the Iran nuclear deal from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, Tuesday, May 8, 2018, in Washington. (AP)
TT

Iran Opts for Dialogue with Europe ahead of Trump's Return to Office

President Donald Trump shows a signed Presidential Memorandum after delivering a statement on the Iran nuclear deal from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, Tuesday, May 8, 2018, in Washington. (AP)
President Donald Trump shows a signed Presidential Memorandum after delivering a statement on the Iran nuclear deal from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, Tuesday, May 8, 2018, in Washington. (AP)

It is difficult to predict what the outcomes will be of the discussions between Iran, France, Britain and Germany about Tehran’s nuclear program in Geneva on Friday.

Last week, the UN atomic watchdog's 35-nation Board of Governors passed a resolution again ordering Iran to urgently improve cooperation with the agency and requesting a "comprehensive" report aimed at pressuring Iran into fresh nuclear talks.

Britain, France, Germany and the United States, which proposed the resolution, dismissed as insufficient and insincere a last-minute Iranian move to cap its stock of uranium that is close to weapons-grade. Diplomats said Iran's move was conditional on scrapping the resolution.

Iran has been weighing its response to the censure, debating whether to increase uranium enrichment or by being open to the proposals expected at the Geneva talks.

The discussions may seek a new nuclear deal instead of the 2015 one with Tehran that is in tatters.

As it stands, Iran is likely to opt for negotiations instead of escalation due to a number of internal, regional and international reasons.

Diplomatic sources in Paris noted US President-elect Donald Trump’s appointments of officials handling Middle East affairs, underscoring their unreserved support to Israel and clear hostility to Iran.

These appointments may lead Iran to think twice before resorting to any escalation.

Even before Trump has taken office, his circles have said that the new president will take “several executive decisions related to Iran and that will be declared on his first day in office.” The decisions will be binding and do not need Congress’ approval.

However, Trump is unpredictable and the sources did not rule out the surprise possibility of him striking a deal with Iran related to its nuclear program and behavior in the Middle East. This means that Tehran will have to make major concessions, including abandoning its policy of “exporting the revolution”.

This remains a far-fatched possibility, however. In all likelihood, Washington under Trump will return to his “maximum pressure” policy against Iran on political, diplomatic and economic levels to make it return to the negotiations table and agree on a deal that completely ends its nuclear ambitions.

So, at the Geneva meeting on Friday, Tehran will seek to achieve two main goals: a nuclear breakthrough during what remains of US President Joe Biden’s time in office, and attempt to lure the European powers away from Trump.

The truth is that Tehran is wading in the unknown. One only has to go back to Trump’s past statements about how Israel should have struck Iran’s nuclear facilities during its October 26 attack on the country.

Trump has already shown Iran his hardline stance when he ordered the assassination of Quds Forces leader Qassem Soleimani near Baghdad airport in January 2020.

Based on this, Tehran is scrambling to avert a joint American-Israeli strike that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been dreaming of.

Iran is vulnerable now due to two main reasons: the Israeli strike in October weakened Iran’s air defenses and Netanyahu has said that Israeli jets can now run rampant over Iran without any worries.

And Tehran can no longer rely on its allied militias to threaten Israel with all-out war. Hamas in Gaza is no longer in a position to threaten Israel and neither is Hezbollah in Lebanon.

So, Iran now finds itself exposed and would rather turn to negotiations with Europe than risk escalation that would cost it dearly with Israel now that it can no longer rely on Hamas and Hezbollah.