Assad’s Final Hours in Syria: Deception, Despair and Flight

A man walks on a poster of Bashar al-Assad, after Syrian opposition fighters announced that they have ousted Assad, in downtown Damascus, Syria December 10, 2024. (Reuters)
A man walks on a poster of Bashar al-Assad, after Syrian opposition fighters announced that they have ousted Assad, in downtown Damascus, Syria December 10, 2024. (Reuters)
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Assad’s Final Hours in Syria: Deception, Despair and Flight

A man walks on a poster of Bashar al-Assad, after Syrian opposition fighters announced that they have ousted Assad, in downtown Damascus, Syria December 10, 2024. (Reuters)
A man walks on a poster of Bashar al-Assad, after Syrian opposition fighters announced that they have ousted Assad, in downtown Damascus, Syria December 10, 2024. (Reuters)

Bashar al-Assad confided in almost no one about his plans to flee Syria as his reign collapsed. Instead, aides, officials and even relatives were deceived or kept in the dark, more than a dozen people with knowledge of the events told Reuters.

Hours before he escaped for Moscow, Assad assured a meeting of about 30 army and security chiefs at the defense ministry on Saturday that Russian military support was on its way and urged ground forces to hold out, according to a commander who was present and requested anonymity to speak about the briefing.

Civilian staff were none the wiser, too.

Assad told his presidential office manager on Saturday when he finished work that he was going home but instead headed to the airport, according to an aide in his inner circle.

He also called his media adviser, Buthaina Shaaban, and asked her to come to his home to write him a speech, the aide said. She arrived to find no one was there.

"Assad didn't even make a last stand. He didn't even rally his own troops," said Nadim Houri, executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative regional think-tank. "He let his supporters face their own fate."

Reuters was unable to contact Assad in Moscow, where he has been granted political asylum. Interviews with 14 people familiar with his final days and hours in power paint a picture of a leader casting around for outside help to extend his 24-year rule before leaning on deception and stealth to plot his exit from Syria in the early hours of Sunday.

Most of the sources, who include aides in the former president's inner circle, regional diplomats and security sources and senior Iranian officials, asked Reuters for their names to be withheld to freely discuss sensitive matters.

Assad didn't even inform his younger brother, Maher, commander of the Army's elite 4th Armored Division, about his exit plan, according to three aides. Maher flew a helicopter to Iraq and then to Russia, one of the people said.

Assad's maternal cousins, Ehab and Eyad Makhlouf, were similarly left behind as Damascus fell to the opposition fighters, according to a Syrian aide and Lebanese security official. The pair tried to flee by car to Lebanon but were ambushed on the way by fighters who shot Ehab dead and wounded Eyad, they said. There was no official confirmation of the death and Reuters was unable to independently verify the incident.

Assad himself fled Damascus by plane on Sunday, Dec. 8, flying under the radar with the aircraft's transponder switched off, two regional diplomats said, escaping the clutches of the opposition storming the capital. The dramatic exit ended his 24 years of rule and his family's half century of unbroken power, and brought the 13-year civil war to an abrupt halt.

He flew to Russia's Hmeimim airbase in the Syrian coastal city of Latakia, and from there on to Moscow.

Assad's immediate family, wife Asma and their three children, were already waiting for him in the Russian capital, according to three former close aides and a senior regional official.

Videos of Assad's home, taken by the opposition and citizens who thronged the presidential complex following his flight and posted on social media, suggest he made a hasty exit, showing cooked food left on the stove and several personal belongings left behind, such as family photo albums.

RUSSIA AND IRAN: NO MILITARY RESCUE

There would be no military rescue from Russia, whose intervention in 2015 had helped turn the tide of the civil war in favor of Assad, or from his other staunch ally Iran.

This had been made clear to the Syrian leader in the days leading up to his exit, when he sought aid from various quarters in a desperate race to cling to power and secure his safety, according to the people interviewed by Reuters.

Assad visited Moscow on Nov. 28, a day after Syrian opposition forces attacked the northern province of Aleppo and lightning drive across the country, but his pleas for military intervention fell on deaf ears in the Kremlin which was unwilling to intervene, three regional diplomats said.

Hadi al-Bahra, the head of Syria's main opposition abroad, said that Assad didn't convey the reality of the situation to aides back home, citing a source within Assad's close circle and a regional official.

"He told his commanders and associates after his Moscow trip that military support was coming," Bahra added. "He was lying to them. The message he received from Moscow was negative."

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday that Russia had spent a lot of effort in helping stabilize Syria in the past, but its priority now was the conflict in Ukraine.

Four days after that trip, on Dec. 2, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi met with Assad in Damascus. By that time, the opposition from the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group had taken control of Syria's second-largest city Aleppo and were sweeping southwards as government forces crumbled.

Assad was visibly distressed during the meeting, and conceded that his army was too weakened to mount an effective resistance, a senior Iranian diplomat told Reuters.

Assad never requested that Tehran deploy forces in Syria though, according to two senior Iranian officials who said he understood that Israel could use any such intervention as a reason to target Iranian forces in Syria or even Iran itself.

The Kremlin and Russian foreign ministry declined to comment for this article, while the Iranian foreign ministry was not immediately available to comment.

ASSAD CONFRONTS OWN DOWNFALL

After exhausting his options, Assad finally accepted the inevitability of his downfall and resolved to leave the country, ending his family's dynastic rule which dates back to 1971.

Moscow, while unwilling to intervene militarily, was not prepared to abandon Assad, according to a Russian diplomatic source who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, attending the Doha forum in Qatar on Saturday and Sunday, spearheaded the diplomatic effort to secure the safety of Assad, two regional officials said.

One Western security source said that Lavrov did "whatever he could" to secure Assad's safe departure.

Moscow also coordinated with neighboring states to ensure that a Russian plane leaving Syrian airspace with Assad on board would not be intercepted or targeted, three of the sources said.

Assad's last prime minister, Mohammed Jalali, said he spoke to his then-president on the phone on Saturday night at 10.30 pm.

"In our last call, I told him how difficult the situation was and that there was huge displacement (of people) from Homs toward Latakia ... that there was panic and horror in the streets," he told Al Arabiya TV this week.

"He replied: 'Tomorrow, we will see'," Jalali added. "'Tomorrow, tomorrow', was the last thing he told me."

Jalali said he tried to call Assad again as dawn broke on Sunday, but there was no response.



What Ignited the Deadly California Wildfires? Investigators Consider an Array of Possibilities

 A helicopter drops water on the Palisades Fire in Mandeville Canyon, Friday, Jan. 10, 2025, in Los Angeles. (AP)
A helicopter drops water on the Palisades Fire in Mandeville Canyon, Friday, Jan. 10, 2025, in Los Angeles. (AP)
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What Ignited the Deadly California Wildfires? Investigators Consider an Array of Possibilities

 A helicopter drops water on the Palisades Fire in Mandeville Canyon, Friday, Jan. 10, 2025, in Los Angeles. (AP)
A helicopter drops water on the Palisades Fire in Mandeville Canyon, Friday, Jan. 10, 2025, in Los Angeles. (AP)

Investigators are considering an array of possible ignition sources for the huge fires that have killed at least 11 people and destroyed thousands of homes and businesses in the Los Angeles area.

In hilly, upscale Pacific Palisades, home to Hollywood stars like Jamie Lee Curtis and Billy Crystal who lost houses in the fire, officials have placed the origin of the wind-whipped blaze behind a home on Piedra Morada Drive, which sits above a densely wooded arroyo.

While lightning is the most common source of fires in the US, according to the National Fire Protection Association, investigators were able to rule that out quickly. There were no reports of lightning in the Palisades area or the terrain around the Eaton Fire, which started in east Los Angeles County and has also destroyed hundreds of homes.

The next two most common causes: fires intentionally set, and those sparked by utility lines.

John Lentini, owner of Scientific Fire Analysis in Florida, who has investigated large fires in California including the Oakland Hills Fire in 1991, said the size and scope of the blaze doesn’t change the approach to finding out what caused it.

“This was once a small fire,” Lentini said. “People will focus on where the fire started, determine the origin and look around the origin and determine the cause.”

So far there has been no official indication of arson in either blaze, and utility lines have not yet been identified as a cause either.

Utilities are required to report to the California Public Utilities Commission when they know of “electric incidents potentially associated with a wildfire,” Terrie Prosper, the commission's communications director, said via email. CPUC staff then investigate to see if there were violations of state law.

The 2017 Thomas Fire, one of the largest fires in state history, was sparked by Southern California Edison power lines that came into contact during high wind, investigators determined. The blaze killed two people and charred more than 440 square miles (1,140 square kilometers).

On Friday, Southern California Edison filed a report with the CPUC related to the Eaton Fire in the hills near Pasadena, an area the utility serves.

Edison said it has not received any suggestions that its equipment was involved in the ignition of that fire, but that it filed the report with state utilities regulators out of “an abundance of caution” after receiving evidence preservation notices from insurance company lawyers.

“Preliminary analysis by SCE of electrical circuit information for the energized transmission lines going through the area for 12 hours prior to the reported start time of the fire shows no interruptions or electrical or operational anomalies until more than one hour after the reported start time of the fire,” the utility reported.

While lightning, arson and utility lines are the most common causes, debris burning and fireworks are also common causes.

But fires are incited by myriad sources, including accidents.

In 2021, a couple's gender reveal stunt started a large fire that torched close to 36 square miles (about 90 square kilometers) of terrain, destroyed five homes and 15 other buildings and claimed the life of a firefighter, Charlie Morton.

The Eaton and Palisades fires were still burning with little containment on Friday. Winds softened, but there was no rain in the forecast as the flames moved through miles of dry landscape.

“It’s going to go out when it runs out of fuel, or when the weather stops,” Lentini said. “They’re not going to put that thing out until it’s ready to go out.”