Marwan Hamadeh: Hafez al-Assad Told Us, ‘Forget Bachir Gemayel,' and he Was Assassinated 4 Days Later

Marwan Hamadeh accompanying Walid Jumblatt during a meeting with Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa in December.
Marwan Hamadeh accompanying Walid Jumblatt during a meeting with Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa in December.
TT

Marwan Hamadeh: Hafez al-Assad Told Us, ‘Forget Bachir Gemayel,' and he Was Assassinated 4 Days Later

Marwan Hamadeh accompanying Walid Jumblatt during a meeting with Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa in December.
Marwan Hamadeh accompanying Walid Jumblatt during a meeting with Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa in December.

For half a century, Lebanon lived under the long rule of the two Assads in Syria. Damascus held Lebanon’s fate in its hands, shaping its political landscape by producing and eliminating presidents and leaders alike. Former Lebanese MP and minister Marwan Hamadeh shares his experience with both regimes.

On December 22, a Lebanese Druze delegation, led by Walid Jumblatt, visited “the new Syria.” Marwan Hamadeh was part of that delegation, and the scene struck him. President Ahmad Sharaa now sat in the chair once occupied by Hafez al-Assad, then his son Bashar, in the People’s Palace, which had been built with the help of Rafik Hariri’s company.

The trip reminded Hamadeh of the fate of men who had defied one or both Assads, including Kamal Jumblatt, Bachir Gemayel, René Moawad, Rafik Hariri, and many others. The memories were even more intense because Hamadeh himself had narrowly survived an assassination attempt on October 1, 2004—an attack that left him wounded, killed his bodyguard, and injured his driver. At the time, the attempt was widely seen as a message to both Walid Jumblatt and Rafik Hariri.

Asharq Al-Awsat visited Hamadeh at his office at An-Nahar newspaper, where he has been based since the mid-1980s, to discuss Lebanon’s turbulent relationship with the Assad regimes. He recalled Hafez al-Assad’s chilling words in his presence: “Forget Bachir Gemayel.” Just four days later, the newly elected Lebanese president was assassinated. The perpetrator, Habib Shartouni, was a member of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, which had close ties to the Syrian regime. Hamadeh holds Syria responsible not only for Gemayel’s assassination but also for the killing of President René Moawad, the disappearance of Imam Musa al-Sadr, and the assassination of Rafik Hariri.

When asked if he had expected Bashar al-Assad’s downfall or flight from Syria, Hamadeh replied: “I thought there might be a coup—a rebellion from within the Syrian army, perhaps by the Fourth Division breaking away from the command of its leader, Bashar’s brother Maher al-Assad. I believed this could happen out of concern for Syria’s sovereignty, which had fallen under Iranian influence. However, I did not anticipate the complete collapse we are seeing now, which has been evident in Syria’s failure to respond to Israeli attacks for more than a year. There hasn’t even been a statement about Gaza or anything before that. Daily airstrikes on Syria, and no reaction.”

He emphasized that the problem did not start with Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian regime has always sought to control two key decisions—if not two entire territories: Lebanon’s independent decision-making and Palestine’s independent decision-making. This, he argues, is why Syria has persistently opposed the establishment of a strong, unified Lebanese state. The dream of making Lebanon a Syrian province or western governorate predates the Assads and was not just a Ba’ath Party ambition.

Hamadeh explained: “There has always been something within Syrian political thinking that resents the separation of these districts from Syria in 1920 by France to establish Greater Lebanon. This sentiment is not just found among the Alawites. In fact, the Alawites might have accepted division, with one part for the Druze and another for different groups. But deep within Syrian national identity, this remains an unresolved issue. Even among those who see Damascus as the beating heart of Arabism and Syria as the embodiment of Arab identity on the frontiers of the Arab empire, there is this feeling. I sensed it especially during discussions about the Taif Agreement, and even before that, during the so-called ‘Tripartite Agreement,’ which I helped negotiate.”

Hamadeh recounts that the agreement was brokered between him and some of his fiercest adversaries at the time: Elie Hobeika, who represented the Lebanese Forces; Michel Samaha, later notorious for his involvement in smuggling explosives from Syrian intelligence chief Ali Mamlouk; and Assaad Shaftari, the intelligence chief of the Lebanese Forces under Hobeika. Also involved was Mohammad Abdul Hamid Beydoun, a key figure in Nabih Berri’s Amal Movement, who had previously been a leftist before shifting alliances. This shift was part of a broader migration from the Lebanese left, which had traditionally aligned with Fatah and the Palestinian resistance, towards Amal and later Hezbollah.

The Tripartite Agreement emerged after the failure of the Geneva and Lausanne conferences, which had attempted national dialogue. Those conferences only succeeded in overturning the May 17, 1983, Lebanese-Israeli agreement, which Hafez al-Assad had called an “agreement of submission.” This reversal led to a coordinated offensive against the Lebanese government, President Amin Gemayel, and the multinational peacekeeping forces, with support from the Soviet Union under Yuri Andropov.

Hamadeh explained: “The core issue was the refusal of the Lebanese establishment—particularly the Maronites—to relinquish the powers of the presidency and distribute them between the legislative and executive branches, meaning the cabinet. This focus continued until we reached the Tripartite Agreement, which was the first joint initiative between Rafik Hariri—who was not yet prime minister and was acting as a Saudi mediator—and Syrian Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam.”

He noted that the agreement sought to broker a deal between militias rather than parliamentarians. It effectively proposed a confederation with ministers of state from six sects, rotating leadership similar to the Swiss model. In reality, this meant a permanent Syrian presence, as the fragile sectarian balance required a strong external force to keep it from unraveling.

Elie Hobeika had by then chosen the Syrian camp. At the time, there were rumors that he had maintained intelligence ties with both Israel and Syria, which might explain why his role in Bachir Gemayel’s assassination was overlooked before he fully aligned with Syrian intelligence. Eventually, intelligence maneuvers brought Hobeika over to the pro-Syrian National Forces alliance, which included Amal Movement and other factions. However, this broad coalition later collapsed under its own contradictions. As the internal conflicts intensified, Hezbollah gradually overtook Amal and effectively eliminated the National Resistance Front, replacing it with what became known as the Islamic Resistance.

The Lebanese Resistance Against Both Assads

Asked about those who resisted Hafez and Bashar al-Assad, Hamadeh said: “The Lebanese people resisted both Assads at different times and to varying degrees, depending on the sectarian composition of different regions. However, in the end, no area was spared from the oppression of either Assad. No sect avoided their brutality, not even the Shiite at certain points. The case of Imam Musa al-Sadr is worth revisiting, along with Syria’s role amid the rise of the Islamic Revolution in Iran.”

He added: “I have both a strong feeling and information suggesting that the Syrian regime was involved in sidelining and making him disappear. Perhaps they feared an independent Shiite leadership that was more Lebanese, more aligned with the Arab world, and rebellious against the Palestinians—particularly the rejectionist front close to Syria. What I want to emphasize is that no one was spared from the wrath of either Assad. Take Kamel Jumblatt, whom we consider a mentor. He captivated us with his socialist ideas, his belief in Lebanese national independence, and his support for an independent Palestinian decision. He was ultimately punished for his positions—especially after telling Hafez al-Assad in their famous final meeting: ‘I will not lead Lebanon into your big Arab prison.’”

When Hafez al-Assad Said: “Forget Bashir Gemayel”

Hamadeh continued: “The hostility between us was well known, but let me take you back to the period after the siege of Beirut and the departure of Yasser Arafat and his comrades to Tunisia. Israel had Beirut under siege, and we were trapped inside. The city had little access to water, food, and electricity—until Saudi Arabia, through US President Ronald Reagan, secured minimal aid. That was when Rafik Hariri played his first role as a mediator.

“We warned the Americans that if Israel entered Beirut, we would be wiped out. The Israelis saw us as allies of ‘terrorists’ and supporters of the Palestinian resistance. In response, the Americans, through their envoy Philip Habib, arranged for us to leave Beirut safely via Sofar and then to Damascus, using vehicles from the US embassy and the Lebanese Sixth Bureau.

On September 10, 1982, we met with President Hafez al-Assad at 9 am Walid Jumblatt and I were there, along with Mohsen Dalloul, Abdullah al-Amin, and Hikmat al-Eid. At the time, I was still serving as a minister in Elias Sarkis’s government. During our discussion, Assad spoke about his ties to Soviet leader Yuri Andropov and his plans for a counteroffensive against the US and the multinational forces. He assured us that he would provide weapons to help defend the Chouf region.”

“At one point, Walid Jumblatt remarked that Lebanon had a political system and that a new president, Bashir Gemayel, had been elected. He suggested that we should deal with this new reality, as had always been the case in previous transitions.

Hafez al-Assad responded sharply: ‘Who are you talking about? Bashir Gemayel?’

We said: ‘Yes, of course, he was elected.’ Assad waved his hand dismissively and said, ‘Forget Bashir Gemayel. Forget him.’”

Hamadeh said that the conversation took place on September 10, 1982. Bashir had been elected just days earlier and was still celebrating his victory. Four days later, Gemayel was assassinated.

“We were still in Damascus at the time, while Walid Jumblatt had traveled to Amman to visit his family. That’s how we learned of Bashir’s assassination,” he stated.

The Wave of Assassinations

Hamadeh added that a wave of assassinations followed. Grand Mufti Sheikh Hassan Khaled was targeted, along with several Palestinian leaders. While Israel was responsible for many of these killings—pursuing Palestinian figures even as far as Tunisia—the Syrian regime also played its part, particularly in Tripoli and elsewhere.

Lebanese political figures were also targeted. Mohammad Shuqair, an advisor to President Amine Gemayel, was assassinated, as were Sheikh Sobhi al-Saleh and MP Nazem al-Qadri, who was gunned down while at a barber shop. Later, President René Moawad was killed.

Asked if he directly accused the Syrian regime of killing René Moawad, Hamadeh replied: “I do not absolve them at all,” he replied. “Others may have been involved alongside the Syrian regime—assassinations like these are often joint operations. This was also the case with the assassination of Rafik Hariri.”

The Trap Set for Samir Geagea

Regarding the church bombing, Hamadeh explained that Geagea had nothing to do with it. At the time, Hamadeh was Minister of Health and had accompanied Prime Minister Rafik Hariri to the site.

“We were among the first to arrive, and it was clear that everything had been premeditated—not just the bombing itself, but also an attempt to block the Nahr al-Kalb Bridge and tunnel to frame the attack as part of a larger terrorist operation, possibly to create a pretext for partitioning Lebanon,” he recounted.

Shortly after, an assassination attempt targeted Deputy Prime Minister Michel El Murr, and Geagea was falsely accused. Many, including President Elias Hrawi, warned him that he should leave Lebanon for his safety, but he refused, according to Hamadeh.

The bombing was orchestrated by Syrian and Lebanese intelligence, and Rafik Hariri knew this well. That’s why some people advised Geagea to leave the country—they were planning something against him. He refused, and as a result, he spent 11 years in prison.



Iraq's Political Future in Limbo as Factions Vie for Power

FILED - 02 November 2025, Iraq, Najaf: Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani delivers a speech during a campaign rally of his Reconstruction and Development Coalition in Najaf, ahead of the Iraqi parliamentary elections, scheduled to be held on 11 November 2025. Photo: Ameer Al-Mohammedawi/dpa
FILED - 02 November 2025, Iraq, Najaf: Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani delivers a speech during a campaign rally of his Reconstruction and Development Coalition in Najaf, ahead of the Iraqi parliamentary elections, scheduled to be held on 11 November 2025. Photo: Ameer Al-Mohammedawi/dpa
TT

Iraq's Political Future in Limbo as Factions Vie for Power

FILED - 02 November 2025, Iraq, Najaf: Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani delivers a speech during a campaign rally of his Reconstruction and Development Coalition in Najaf, ahead of the Iraqi parliamentary elections, scheduled to be held on 11 November 2025. Photo: Ameer Al-Mohammedawi/dpa
FILED - 02 November 2025, Iraq, Najaf: Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani delivers a speech during a campaign rally of his Reconstruction and Development Coalition in Najaf, ahead of the Iraqi parliamentary elections, scheduled to be held on 11 November 2025. Photo: Ameer Al-Mohammedawi/dpa

Political factions in Iraq have been maneuvering since the parliamentary election more than a month ago to form alliances that will shape the next government.

The November election didn't produce a bloc with a decisive majority, opening the door to a prolonged period of negotiations, said The Associated Press.

The government that eventually emerges will be inheriting a security situation that has stabilized in recent years, but it will also face a fragmented parliament, growing political influence by armed factions, a fragile economy, and often conflicting international and regional pressures, including the future of Iran-backed armed groups.

Uncertain prospects

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's party took the largest number of seats in the election. Al-Sudani positioned himself in his first term as a pragmatist focused on improving public services and managed to keep Iraq on the sidelines of regional conflicts.

While his party is nominally part of the Coordination Framework, a coalition of Iran-backed Shiite parties that became the largest parliamentary bloc, observers say it’s unlikely that the Coordination Framework will support al-Sudani’s reelection bid.

“The choice for prime minister has to be someone the Framework believes they can control and doesn't have his own political ambitions,” said Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi political analyst and fellow at The Century Foundation think tank.

Al-Sudani came to power in 2022 with the backing of the Framework, but Jiyad said that he believes now the coalition “will not give al-Sudani a second term as he has become a powerful competitor.”

The only Iraqi prime minister to serve a second term since 2003 was Nouri al-Maliki, first elected in 2006. His bid for a third term failed after being criticized for monopolizing power and alienating Sunnis and Kurds.

Jiyad said that the Coordination Framework drew a lesson from Maliki “that an ambitious prime minister will seek to consolidate power at the expense of others.”

He said that the figure selected as Iraq's prime minister must generally be seen as acceptable to Iran and the United States — two countries with huge influence over Iraq — and to Iraq’s top Shiite cleric, Grand Ali al-Sistani.

Al-Sudani in a bind

In the election, Shiite alliances and lists — dominated by the Coordination Framework parties — secured 187 seats, Sunni groups 77 seats, Kurdish groups 56 seats, in addition to nine seats reserved for members of minority groups.

The Reconstruction and Development Coalition, led by al-Sudani, dominated in Baghdad, and in several other provinces, winning 46 seats.

Al-Sudani's results, while strong, don't allow him to form a government without the support of a coalition, forcing him to align the Coordination Framework to preserve his political prospects.

Some saw this dynamic at play earlier this month when al-Sudani's government retracted a terror designation that Iraq had imposed on the Lebanese Hezbollah militant group and Yemen’s Houthis— Iran-aligned groups that are allied with Iraqi armed factions — just weeks after imposing the measure, saying it was a mistake.

The Coalition Framework saw its hand strengthened by the absence from the election of the powerful Sadrist movement led by Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadr, which has been boycotting the political system since being unable to form a government after winning the most seats in the 2021 election.

Hamed Al-Sayed, a political activist and official with the National Line Movement, an independent party that boycotted the election, said that Sadr’s absence had a “central impact.”

“It reduced participation in areas that were traditionally within his sphere of influence, such as Baghdad and the southern governorates, leaving an electoral vacuum that was exploited by rival militia groups,” he said, referring to several parties within the Coordination Framework that also have armed wings.

Groups with affiliated armed wings won more than 100 parliamentary seats, the largest showing since 2003.

Other political actors

Sunni forces, meanwhile, sought to reorganize under a new coalition called the National Political Council, aiming to regain influence lost since the 2018 and 2021 elections.

The Kurdish political scene remained dominated by the traditional split between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan parties, with ongoing negotiations between the two over the presidency.

By convention, Iraq’s president is always a Kurd, while the more powerful prime minister is Shiite and the parliamentary speaker Sunni.

Parliament is required to elect a speaker within 15 days of the Federal Supreme Court’s ratification of the election result, which occurred on Dec. 14.

The parliament should elect a president within 30 days of its first session, and the prime minister should be appointed within 15 days of the president’s election, with 30 days allotted to form the new government.

Washington steps in

The incoming government will face major economic and political challenges.

They include a high level of public debt — more than 90 trillion Iraqi dinars ($69 billion) — and a state budget that remains reliant on oil for about 90% of revenues, despite attempts to diversify, as well as entrenched corruption.

But perhaps the most delicate question will be the future of the Popular Mobilization Forces, a coalition of militias that formed to fight the ISIS group as it rampaged across Iraq more than a decade ago.

It was formally placed under the control of the Iraqi military in 2016 but in practice still operates with significant autonomy. After the Hamas-led attack in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 sparked the devastating war in Gaza, some armed groups within the PMF launched attacks on US bases in the region in retaliation for Washington’s backing of Israel.

The US has been pushing for Iraq to disarm Iran-backed groups — a difficult proposition, given the political power that many of them hold and Iran’s likely opposition to such a step.

Two senior Iraqi political officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to comment publicly, said that the United States had warned against selecting any candidate for prime minister who controls an armed faction and also cautioned against letting figures associated with militias control key ministries or hold significant security posts.

“The biggest issue will be how to deal with the pro-Iran parties with armed wings, particularly those... which have been designated by the United States as terrorist entities,” Jiyad said.


What Egypt’s Red Lines Mean for Sudan’s War

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi holds talks with Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Cairo on Thursday (Egyptian Presidency)
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi holds talks with Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Cairo on Thursday (Egyptian Presidency)
TT

What Egypt’s Red Lines Mean for Sudan’s War

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi holds talks with Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Cairo on Thursday (Egyptian Presidency)
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi holds talks with Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Cairo on Thursday (Egyptian Presidency)

In unusually blunt language, and following a visit by Sudan’s Sovereignty Council Chairman and army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan to Cairo, the Egyptian presidency issued a statement on the war in Sudan outlining three points it described as red lines.

It said Egypt would not allow any of them to be crossed or compromised, as they directly affect Egypt’s national security, which it said is inseparable from Sudan’s national security.

The reference to activating the joint defense agreement between the two countries was seen as a signal that Egypt could bring its military, political, and diplomatic weight to bear in support of the Sudanese army.

Joint defense agreement

In March 2021, Egypt signed a military cooperation agreement with Sudan that covers training, border security, and the confrontation of shared threats. That agreement followed a joint defense pact signed in 1976 during the presidencies of Sudan’s Gaafar Nimeiry and Egypt’s Anwar Sadat.

Articles One and Two of the pact stipulate that any attack on one party is considered an attack on the other, and require immediate consultation, including the use of armed force to repel aggression. The agreement also commits both sides to coordinating their defense and military policies on matters related to their national security.

After the fall of Nimeiry’s regime in the 1985 popular uprising, then Prime Minister Sadiq al-Mahdi informed the Egyptian leadership of his desire to cancel the joint defense agreement. Instead, the two sides signed what became known as the Brotherhood Charter in 1987. While it did not explicitly cancel the 1976 agreement, its mechanisms have not been discussed or activated since then.

Regional and international messages

Sudanese journalist Osman Mirghani, editor-in-chief of Al-Tayar newspaper, said the Egyptian statements amounted to regional and international messages linked to recent developments and what he described as serious security threats facing Sudan.

He pointed to the expansion of the Rapid Support Forces in the Darfur and Kordofan regions in a way that threatens shared Sudanese and Egyptian national security, warning of risks of geographic fragmentation that could endanger Sudan’s unity.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Mirghani said Egypt was, for the first time, using direct and tough language and signaling the possibility of intervention under international law in Sudan’s conflict. He said this reflected the level of Egyptian concern over the situation in Sudan.

Mirghani added that the reference to red lines was a message directed at all parties, noting that there are many influential players in Sudan.

The red lines

The first red line cited by Cairo was the preservation of Sudan’s unity and territorial integrity, preventing any tampering with its resources or those of the Sudanese people, and rejecting the secession of any part of the country. Egypt reiterated its categorical refusal to the establishment or recognition of any parallel entities, saying such moves would undermine Sudan’s unity and territorial integrity.

The statement also stressed the need to preserve Sudanese state institutions and prevent any harm to them. Egypt affirmed its full right to take all necessary measures permitted under international law, including activating the joint defense agreement between the two brotherly countries, to ensure these red lines are not crossed.

Timing of the visit

Former Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Youssef noted the timing of Burhan’s visit to Cairo, stating that it occurred after his trip to Saudi Arabia earlier this week and following a visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the United States.

Youssef said the trip was part of efforts to end the war in Sudan through the Quartet mechanism, which includes Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and the United States.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Youssef said Burhan briefed Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on the outcomes of his Saudi visit and the latest developments in Sudan.

He stated that the visit did not follow the usual ceremonial protocol and was a result of developments in the war, noting that Egypt’s security is linked to Sudan’s security. He added that Egypt is part of the Quartet, which seeks to end a war that is approaching its third year.

Military implications

Sudanese military expert Al-Muatasim Abdel Qader said activating the joint agreement would imply Egyptian intervention in various forms, including supplying weapons and ammunition or direct military involvement.

He said the provisions of the agreement obligate each army to defend the other, adding that the red lines outlined by the Egyptian presidency represented a significant step and carried major implications for the Sudanese state.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Abdel Qader described mutual protection between the two countries as a historically rooted matter, dating back to wars Egypt fought in the last century in which Sudanese armed forces took part.

Rapid Support Forces response

Basha Tabiq, an adviser to the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, said in posts on X that Egypt’s position amounted to blatant interference, bias toward one party, and a colonial mindset that views Sudan as a backyard.

Another source aligned with the RSF said accusations against Egypt of backing the Sudanese army have persisted since the early days of the war. The source pointed to the presence of Egyptian forces at Merowe air base in northern Sudan at the start of the conflict, when several Egyptian soldiers and officers were captured before later being handed over to Cairo.

The source also cited accusations by RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, who said in October 2024 that the Egyptian army had carried out air strikes against his forces and supplied the Sudanese army with drones and training.

He said Hemedti renewed those accusations last June, alleging that Cairo supported the Sudanese army with aircraft flown by Egyptian pilots that bombed areas under his forces’ control, and supplied weapons and aviation fuel. Hemedti described this as a blatant aggression against the Sudanese people.

The source, who requested anonymity, said Egypt has been intervening in the war from the outset and that activating the joint defense agreement would merely formalize an existing reality.

No time to spare

Sudanese ambassador Al-Sadiq al-Maqli said Egypt is working with Saudi Arabia and the international Quartet, in coordination with the United States, to give fresh momentum to efforts on Sudan.

He said Washington is currently using soft power rather than force, which he described as an option deferred until shuttle diplomacy by US President’s senior adviser Massad Boulos is exhausted.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Maqli said the United States fully understands the influence of Saudi Arabia and Egypt and their ability to persuade and soften the stance of Sudan’s government, which has rejected the latest US initiative.

He said Burhan currently has no time to spare, as what is unfolding in Sudan represents the world’s worst humanitarian disaster, according to the international community.

Maqli noted that Egypt, represented by Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, has been almost fully dedicated to making the Quartet mechanism succeed, given that the continuation of the current situation in Sudan poses a threat to Egypt’s national security.

He described Burhan’s visits to Riyadh and Cairo as short but necessary steps toward accepting the Quartet initiative, saying the Saudi visit marked a qualitative shift in the Sudanese government’s official position.

He added that Sudan’s foreign ministry later expressed Port Sudan’s readiness to cooperate with President Donald Trump, his secretary of state, and Boulos in efforts to achieve peace in Sudan, predicting imminent developments that could lead to a major breakthrough in the crisis.


Iraq Negotiates New Coalition Under US Pressure

Election workers count ballots as they close a polling station, during the parliamentary elections in Baghdad, Iraq, Nov. 11, 2025. (AP)
Election workers count ballots as they close a polling station, during the parliamentary elections in Baghdad, Iraq, Nov. 11, 2025. (AP)
TT

Iraq Negotiates New Coalition Under US Pressure

Election workers count ballots as they close a polling station, during the parliamentary elections in Baghdad, Iraq, Nov. 11, 2025. (AP)
Election workers count ballots as they close a polling station, during the parliamentary elections in Baghdad, Iraq, Nov. 11, 2025. (AP)

More than a month after Iraq's parliamentary elections, the country's top leaders remain locked in talks to form a government while facing pressure from Washington to exclude Tehran-backed armed groups.

Amid seismic changes in the Middle East, where new alliances are forming and old powers waning, Iraqi leaders face a daunting task: navigating relations with US-blacklisted pro-Iranian factions.

The US has held significant sway over Iraqi politics since leading the 2003 invasion that ousted long-time ruler Saddam Hussein.

But another specter also haunts Iraq's halls of power: Washington's arch-foe, Iran.

Iraq has long been caught between the two, with successive governments negotiating a delicate balance.

Now, after November's election, Washington has demanded the eventual government must exclude Iran-backed armed groups and instead move to dismantle them, Iraqi officials and diplomats told AFP.

A State Department spokesperson, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: "Iraqi leaders well know what is and is not compatible with a strong US-Iraq partnership".

Washington, the spokesperson said, "will continue to speak plainly to the urgency of dismantling Iran-backed militias".

But some of these groups have increased their presence in the new chamber and have joined the Coordination Framework, an alliance of Shiite parties with varying ties to Iran and which holds the majority.

For weeks, the Coordination Framework has been embroiled in talks to nominate the next prime minister.

"The US has put conditions that armed factions should not be part of the new government," a senior Iraqi official said. The factions must disarm and "sever ties with Iran's Revolutionary Guard," he added.

In recent tweets, the US special envoy to Iraq, Mark Savaya said that Iraqi leaders are at a "crossroads".

Their decision "will send a clear and unmistakable signal to the United States... that Iraq is ready to claim its rightful place as a stable and respected nation in the new Middle East.

"The alternative is equally clear: economic deterioration, political confusion, and international isolation," Savaya said.

The US has blacklisted as "terrorist organizations" several armed groups from within the pro-Iran Popular Mobilization Forces, a former paramilitary alliance now integrated into the armed forces.

They are also part of the Iran-backed so-called "Axis of Resistance" and have called for the withdrawal of US troops -- deployed in Iraq as part of an anti-ISIS coalition -- and launched attacks against them.

Most of these groups hold seats in parliament and have seen their political and financial clout increase.

The Asaib Ahl al-Haq faction, led by Qais al-Khazali, who is a key figure in the Coordination Framework, won 27 seats in the latest election, making it harder to exclude it from the government.

A potential compromise is to deny it a key portfolio, as in the current government.

"The US has turned a blind eye before, so they might after all engage with the government as a whole but not with ministries held by armed groups," a former Iraqi official said.

Other blacklisted groups are:

+ Kataeb Hezbollah, one of the most powerful armed groups, supports a parliamentary bloc (six seats).

+ Kataeb Sayyid al-Shuhada, Kataeb Imam Ali and Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya.

+ The al-Nujaba movement is the only group that has steered clear of elections.

Iraq has its economic growth to worry about.

After decades of turmoil, it has only begun to regain a sense of normalcy in recent years.

Washington has already imposed sanctions on several Iraqi entities and banks, accusing them of helping Tehran evade sanctions.

But Iraqi leaders hope for greater foreign investments and support partnerships with US companies.

The most striking endorsement came from Khazali, an opponent of the US military presence who now argues that it would be in Baghdad's interest for major US companies to invest.

Since the Israel's war with Hamas in Gaza began in October 2023, Iraq has remained relatively unscathed by the turmoil engulfing the Middle East.

Iraqi armed groups did launch attacks on US troops and largely unsuccessful ones on Israel. Washington responded with heavy strikes, and the attacks have long since halted.

Iraq remained the only close regional ally of Iran to stay out of Israel's crosshairs.

So far, the US has acted as a buffer, helping to prevent an Israeli attack, but Iraqis have been warned of strikes against the armed groups, multiple sources said.

But as the presence of American forces dwindles, fears are growing.