Former Spy Chief and Assad’s Cousin Plot Syrian Uprisings from Russia

A member of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham stands guard near an image of Syria's Bashar al-Assad at the fourth division headquarters in Damascus, Syria, January 23, 2025 (Reuters)
A member of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham stands guard near an image of Syria's Bashar al-Assad at the fourth division headquarters in Damascus, Syria, January 23, 2025 (Reuters)
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Former Spy Chief and Assad’s Cousin Plot Syrian Uprisings from Russia

A member of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham stands guard near an image of Syria's Bashar al-Assad at the fourth division headquarters in Damascus, Syria, January 23, 2025 (Reuters)
A member of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham stands guard near an image of Syria's Bashar al-Assad at the fourth division headquarters in Damascus, Syria, January 23, 2025 (Reuters)

Two former loyalists to Bashar al-Assad who fled Syria after his fall are funneling millions of dollars to tens of thousands of potential fighters, hoping to stir uprisings against the new government and reclaim some of their lost influence, a Reuters investigation has found.

Assad, who escaped to Russia last December, is largely resigned to exile in Moscow, say four people close to the family. But other senior figures from his inner circle, including his brother, have not come to terms with losing power.

Reuters found that two of the men once closest to Assad, Maj. Gen. Kamal Hassan and billionaire Rami Makhlouf, are competing to form militias in coastal Syria and Lebanon made up of members of their minority Alawite sect, long associated with the Assad family.

All told, the two men and other factions jostling for power are financing more than 50,000 fighters in hope of winning their loyalty.

Assad’s brother, Maher, who is also in Moscow and still controls thousands of former soldiers, has yet to give money or orders, said the four people close to the Assads.

One prize for Hassan and Makhlouf is control of a network of 14 underground command rooms built around coastal Syria toward the end of Assad’s rule, as well as weapons caches.

Two officers and a Syrian regional governor confirmed the existence of these concealed rooms, details of which appear in photos seen by Reuters.

Hassan, who was Bashar’s military intelligence chief, has been tirelessly making calls and sending voice messages to commanders and advisors. In them, he seethes about his lost influence and outlines grandiose visions of how he would rule coastal Syria, home to the majority of Syria’s Alawite population and Assad’s former powerbase.

Makhlouf, a cousin of the Assads, once used his business empire to fund the ousted President during the civil war, only to run afoul of his more powerful relatives and wind up under years of house arrest. He now portrays himself in conversations and messages as a messianic figure who will return to power after ushering in an apocalyptic final battle.

Hassan and Makhlouf did not respond to requests for comment for this report. Bashar and Maher Assad couldn’t be reached. Reuters also sought comment from the Assad brothers through intermediaries, who didn’t reply.

From their exiles in Moscow, Hassan and Makhlouf envision a fractured Syria, and each wants control of the Alawite-majority areas.

Both have spent millions of dollars in competing efforts to build forces, Reuters found. Their deputies are located in several countries.

To counter the plotters, Syria’s new government is deploying another former Assad loyalist – a childhood friend of new President Ahmed al-Sharaa who became a paramilitary leader for Assad and then switched sides mid-war after the ousted President turned against him. The task of that man, Khaled al-Ahmad, is to persuade Alawite ex-soldiers and civilians that their future lies with the new Syria.

Details of the scheming are based on interviews with 48 people with direct knowledge of the competing plans. All spoke on condition of anonymity.

Reuters also reviewed financial records, operational documents, and exchanges of voice and text messages.

The governor of the coastal region of Tartous, Ahmed al-Shami, said Syrian authorities are aware of the outlines of the plans and ready to combat them. He confirmed the existence of the command-room network as well, but said it has been weakened.

“We are certain they cannot do anything effective, given their lack of strong tools on the ground and their weak capabilities,” al-Shami told Reuters in response to questions about the plotting.

The Lebanese Interior Ministry and the Russian Foreign Ministry did not respond to requests for comment. A UAE official said its government is committed to preventing the use of its territory for “all forms of illicit financial flows.”

For now, the prospects of a successful uprising seem low.

Chief plotters Hassan and Makhlouf are virulently at odds with one another.

Their hopes are fading to win backing from Russia, once Assad’s most powerful political and military supporter. Many Alawites in Syria, who also suffered under Assad, mistrust the pair. And the new government is working to stymie their plans.

In a brief statement in response to the Reuters findings, the government’s Alawite point man al-Ahmad said the “work of healing – of uprooting sectarian hatred and honoring the dead – remains the only path toward a Syria that can live with itself again.”

Hassan claims control of 12,000 fighters, while Makhlouf claims control of at least 54,000, according to their factions’ internal documents. Commanders on the ground said fighters are paid a pittance and taking money from both sides.

The exiles don't appear to have mobilized any forces yet. Reuters could not confirm the fighter figures or determine specific action plans. Tartous governor Al-Shami said potential fighters numbered in the tens of thousands.

In interviews, the people closest to the plotters said they’re aware that tens of thousands of Syrian Alawites could face violent retribution if they implement their plans against the new leadership.

In March, nearly 1,500 civilians were killed across the Mediterranean coast by government-affiliated forces after a failed uprising in an Alawite town.

Both Hassan and Makhlouf promise to protect Syria’s Alawites from the insecurity that has continued since March, including near-daily killings and kidnappings.

Neither Makhlouf nor Hassan were behind the protests, but rather a cleric who opposes both men and publicly called on people to demonstrate peacefully.

Makhlouf attacked the cleric the next day in a social media post, saying, “all these movements will only bring calamity, for the time is not yet right.”
One of Hassan’s top military coordinators told Reuters that fighting is the only way to restore Alawite dignity.

“We are lucky that only this number of our people have died so far,” said the coordinator, a former Assad-era military intelligence officer who is now in Lebanon. “Perhaps thousands more will die, but the sect must offer up sacrificial lambs” to defend the community.

According to January 2025 documents seen by Reuters, Assadist forces drew up initial plans to build a paramilitary force of 5,780 fighters and supply them from the subterranean command rooms. These are essentially large storerooms equipped with arms, solar power, internet, GPS units and walkie-talkies.

Nothing came of that early plan, and the command rooms – along a spine in coastal Syria about 180 kilometers from north to south – remain operational but essentially idle, according to two people with knowledge of them and photos seen by Reuters.

One photo showed a room with five stacked crates, three of which were open to reveal a collection of AK-47s, ammunition and hand grenades. The room also held three desktop computers, two tablets, a set of walkie-talkies, and a power bank. In the center was a wooden table topped with a large map.

For the plotters, “this network is Treasure Island, and they are all boats trying to reach it,” said one of the people, a commander who monitors the readiness of the rooms.

Al-Shami, the Tartous governor, said the network is real but poses little danger.

As senior military officials and ranking government figures escaped abroad in December 2024, many mid-level commanders remained in Syria. Most fled to the coastal regions dominated by Alawites, a Muslim minority that makes up a little over 10% of Syria’s population.

Those officers started recruiting fighters, according to a retired commander involved in the effort.

“The most fertile ground was the military,” the retired commander said. “Thousands of young men from the sect had been conscripted into the army, which was dissolved in December, and they suddenly found themselves exposed.”

Then came the failed uprising on March 6. An Alawite unit operating independently ambushed security forces from the new Syrian government in rural Latakia, killing 12 men and capturing more than 150, according to a brigadier general who was involved with the ambush and has since left for Lebanon.

The new Syrian government says hundreds of its security forces died in the fighting that followed – a claim largely echoed by the pro-Assad fighters.

The brigadier general said 128 pro-Assad forces died in the uprising, which was quelled by the new government. The insurgency sparked reprisals that killed nearly 1,500 Alawites.

The Assadist exiles neither started nor commanded the uprising, according to the officers who were there, but those days marked a turning point. They began to organize.

An Assad Family Feud
It was on March 9 that Makhlouf started calling himself “The Coast Boy,” declaring in a statement that he had been entrusted with a divine mission to help Alawites. “I’m back, and blessed be the return,” the statement read. It did not mention that he was in Moscow.

Makhlouf dominated Syria’s economy for more than two decades, with holdings estimated by the British government at well over a billion dollars in industries as varied as telecoms, construction and tourism. He used his money to fund Syrian army units and allied militias during the civil war, which broke out in 2011.

When Assad’s victory seemed assured in 2019, Makhlouf publicly claimed credit. Soon after, Assad seized Makhlouf’s businesses, ostensibly because they were indebted to the state, and put him under years of house arrest.

Makhlouf escaped to Lebanon in an ambulance the night of December 8, 2024, as Damascus fell to Sharaa’s rebels.

Makhlouf’s brother Ehab also tried to flee that night in his Maserati, but was shot to death near the border and robbed of millions of dollars he was carrying in cash, according to four close associates of the family and a customs officer with direct knowledge of the events. Reuters could not independently verify the events of that night.

Makhlouf now lives on a private floor in a luxurious Radisson hotel in Moscow under tight security, according to nine aides and relatives.

The Radisson in Moscow and group headquarters in Brussels did not respond to a request for comment.

According to Makhlouf’s Facebook posts and WhatsApp messages to associates, he believes God gave him money and influence so he can play a messianic role in a prophecy involving the battle of Armageddon in Damascus.
In his interpretation, the apocalypse will arrive after the end of US President Donald Trump’s term.

Using trusted business administrators three countries, Makhlouf is transferring money to Alawite officers for salaries and equipment, according to a financial manager and receipts and payroll tables seen by Reuters.

The documents show the money is funneled through two prominent Syrian officers who reunited with Makhlouf in Moscow: Suhail Hassan and Qahtan Khalil, who both held the rank of major general. Hassan and Khalil claimed to have created a force for Makhlouf totaling what they said were 54,053 willing fighters, including 18,000 officers, organized into 80 battalions and groups in and around the cities of Homs, Hama, Tartous and Latakia.

Many rank-and-file soldiers conscripted under Assad, however, gave up fighting when his government fell.

Hassan and Khalil didn’t reply to requests for comment about their role in transferring money.

An UAE official said the government maintains strict oversight over its economic sectors and fully “supports Syria’s efforts to safeguard its security, stability, and sovereignty over all territories.’

One of his financial managers told Reuters that Makhlouf has spent at least $6 million on salaries. Payroll tables and salary receipts created by financial aides to Makhlouf in Lebanon claimed he spent $976,705 in May, and that one group of 5,000 fighters received $150,000 in August.

The total force numbers are real, according to five leaders of military groups in Syria who are on Makhlouf’s payroll and lead about a fifth of his following. But Makhlouf’s funding falls short of their needs, amounting to just $20 to $30 a month per fighter.

In addition, Makhlouf’s staff has sought to provide weapons. They have mapped the possible location of dozens of caches hidden during the Assad era totaling a few thousand firearms, according to schematics Reuters viewed.

These stockpiles are separate from the hidden command rooms.

They have also been in discussions with smugglers in Syria for new weapons.

People familiar with the discussions said they didn’t know if new weapons were actually purchased or delivered.

Altogether, the five local military leaders said they command about 12,000 men in various stages of readiness. One of them told Reuters the time wasn’t yet right for action.

Another of the five commanders derided Makhlouf as trying to buy loyalty with “crumbs of money.”

All five said they had accepted money from both Makhlouf and Hassan, the spy chief. They saw no issue with overlapping paymasters.

Mass Grave and Hiding Atrocities
Hassan ran the Assad dictatorship’s military detention system, which was notorious for extorting money at scale from prisoners’ families, according to a 2024 United Nations report about the system.

A Reuters investigation this year found it was Hassan who proposed moving a mass grave containing thousands of bodies in 2018 to the Dhumair desert outside Damascus to hide the scope of the Assad government atrocities.

With Assad’s fall, Hassan took refuge in the Russian embassy in December 2024 for nearly two weeks.

He was infuriated at what he perceived as ill-treatment by his hosts, who provided a single room with just one hard chair to sit on, according to two people close to him.

“Kamal Hassan is not one to sit on a wooden chair for days!” he said in one WhatsApp voice message to his inner circle from this spring, reviewed by Reuters.

Hassan ultimately took up residence in a three-story villa in suburban Moscow, according to an officer who met him over the summer.

Since then, he has seen Maher al-Assad once and maintains close ties with Bashar’s Russian protectors, according to the two people aware of Hassan’s movements.

According to Hassan’s operations coordinator in Lebanon, Hassan has spent $1.5 million since March on 12,000 fighters in Syria and Lebanon.

“Be patient, my people, and don’t surrender your arms. I am the one who will restore your dignity,” he said in another WhatsApp voice message from April that appeared aimed at commanders. Two recipients confirmed the message was from him.

In mid-year, a charity called the “Development of Western Syria” announced its creation and said it was funded by “the Syrian citizen Maj. Gen. Kamal Hassan,” according to one of its initial Facebook posts.

Three officers linked to Hassan and a manager in the organization described it as a humanitarian cover so Hassan could build influence among Alawites.

In August, the charity paid $80,000 to shelter 40 Syrian Alawite families, according to an announcement of its first action. That same month, Hassan sent $200,000 in cash to 80 officers in Lebanon, according to a payroll document seen by Reuters.



In Israel, Eisenkot Tries Quiet Appeal to Oust Netanyahu

 Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, visits a polling station, on the day of Israel’s national election, in Ofakim, southern Israel, October 27, 2026. (Reuters)
Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, visits a polling station, on the day of Israel’s national election, in Ofakim, southern Israel, October 27, 2026. (Reuters)
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In Israel, Eisenkot Tries Quiet Appeal to Oust Netanyahu

 Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, visits a polling station, on the day of Israel’s national election, in Ofakim, southern Israel, October 27, 2026. (Reuters)
Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, visits a polling station, on the day of Israel’s national election, in Ofakim, southern Israel, October 27, 2026. (Reuters)

Gadi Eisenkot, the man who could unseat Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, almost always dresses in black, speaks halting English and tends to respond in interviews with bullet-point lists, a reflection of the military culture that shaped him.

For some voters in Tuesday's general election, the 66-year-old's lack of charisma may be one of his greatest assets.

Serious and unassuming, Eisenkot is in many ways the opposite of Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, who has flawless American-accented English and is ever ready with headline-grabbing soundbites on US television or social media.

Eisenkot, the military chief of staff from 2015 to 2019, has vowed to unite Israelis after the divisive tenure of Netanyahu, who has moved the country sharply to the right.

"There is a large camp in Israel whose main goal in the coming election is just for things to be calmer," said Tal Elovits, a researcher at the Molad think tank.

"The middle class," he said, "is looking for someone who will look responsible, boring. I think Eisenkot has that appeal."

Eisenkot, who has been neck and neck with Netanyahu in polls, has promised to try to restore the international image of Israel, badly strained after three years of war in Gaza and violence in the occupied West Bank.

He has vowed to crack down on extremist West Bank settlers who have attacked Palestinians with impunity and recently beat up an American journalist and a French mayor, decrying the incidents as "Jewish terror" abetted by Netanyahu's government.

But the military man is no peacenik. He has even sought to play to the right of Netanyahu by vowing no Palestinian state, replaying clips from an earlier political era in which the long-serving prime minister begrudgingly voiced openness to the idea under US pressure.

Commanding the military during the 2006 war with Hezbollah, Eisenkot devised the so-called "Dahieh doctrine", named after Beirut’s southern suburb, in which Israel vowed massive force against civilian infrastructure in areas populated by the Lebanese group.

Israel has adopted the doctrine again in Gaza, causing destruction that critics say amounts to war crimes, an assertion disputed by Israel.

- Working-class roots -

Eisenkot has garnered broad public sympathy after his son Gal and two nephews were killed fighting in Gaza.

His working-class roots constitute another element of his appeal. He would be the first prime minister who is Sephardic, Jews who trace their recent origins to the Middle East and North Africa.

Unlike Netanyahu, who comes from an elite family and whose father was a prominent professor in the United States, Eisenkot is the son of Moroccan Jews, and grew up on Israel's geographic periphery.

His background came into the spotlight when a senior commentator on the pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 television station described Eisenkot as "a monkey" controlled by "Ashkenazi elitists". He was referring to Jews of European descent who have historically dominated Israel's political and economic institutions.

While the term is not necessarily a racial slur in Hebrew and can mean something akin to a "fall guy" taking the blame on behalf of others, the remark drew widespread condemnation from opposition politicians and from Netanyahu himself.

Eisenkot swiftly sought to turn the episode to his advantage.

His campaign erected billboards denouncing discrimination against the Sephardim, and his party accused Netanyahu of sidelining Sephardic members of Likud by limiting their media appearances during the campaign.

- Limited change on security -

In weekend appearances, Eisenkot met religious Jews to whom he defended Israeli control over the West Bank.

"Israeli settlement (of the West Bank) is a value, on condition that it serves the interests of the state of Israel, and it's done according to the law," he told representatives of the Religious Zionist movement on Sunday.

He appeared to be rejecting the establishment of unauthorized settlement outposts, which have fueled a recent rise in violence against Palestinians.

On Gaza, he has vowed to end Hamas rule within 18 months. He recently said this could be achieved either through the implementation of US President Donald Trump's ceasefire plan, which envisages Hamas's gradual disarmament and a transfer of power, or through "creative operations" aimed at destroying the movement's military wing.

Addressing a key source of resentment among Israelis following three years of war, Eisenkot has promised to curb exemptions from military service for religious students.

He promised a "universal national service law" requiring ultra-Orthodox Jews and Arab citizens to perform either military or civil service.

He has sought to appeal to centrist and liberal voters by pledging to "protect judicial independence, the rule of law, minority rights and a free press".

And in his final major rally before Tuesday's vote, he appealed directly to wavering Netanyahu supporters to change their vote.

"Deep down, you too know that Israel cannot go on like this," he said. "Israel needs change."


Benjamin Netanyahu: Israel’s Longest-Serving PM Fighting for Survival

 A man walks past a poster of Israeli Prime Minister and Likud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump during the country's national elections in central Jerusalem, October 27, 2026. (Reuters)
A man walks past a poster of Israeli Prime Minister and Likud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump during the country's national elections in central Jerusalem, October 27, 2026. (Reuters)
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Benjamin Netanyahu: Israel’s Longest-Serving PM Fighting for Survival

 A man walks past a poster of Israeli Prime Minister and Likud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump during the country's national elections in central Jerusalem, October 27, 2026. (Reuters)
A man walks past a poster of Israeli Prime Minister and Likud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump during the country's national elections in central Jerusalem, October 27, 2026. (Reuters)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's consummate political survivor, faces the fight of his life in Tuesday's election as he tries to convince voters he is still the only candidate capable of keeping them safe.

The 77-year-old's security-first reputation was all but shattered by Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack, and his main rival -- ex-military chief Gadi Eisenkot -- has channeled public anger over the failure and is running neck and neck with Netanyahu in polls.

Now Israel's longest-serving premier is pulling out all the stops, touting an endorsement from Donald Trump, warning that hostile powers want him to lose, and stoking fears of a Palestinian state -- opposed by a majority of Israelis -- should his opponents triumph.

His election campaign has leaned heavily on a single slogan, visible on posters throughout the country: "Either the Right or Palestine."

Off the campaign trail, Netanyahu faces an international arrest warrant over alleged war crimes in Gaza, a long-running corruption trial, and a spiraling multi-front conflict that has dragged on for three years.

But Netanyahu is hoping to use the wars he waged after October 7 to paper over that glaring security lapse, touting the military blows dealt to Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the groups' backer Iran, which Israel has twice launched wars against.

Last week, after two Israeli soldiers were killed by Palestinian gunmen near Hebron, Netanyahu launched a major military operation in the occupied West Bank and vowed to "pursue Hamas terrorists" everywhere.

- Long career -

Born in Tel Aviv on October 21, 1949, Netanyahu inherited his ideological background from his father Benzion, a former aide to Zeev Jabotinsky, leader of the so-called "Revisionist" strand of Zionism that advocates for a "Greater Israel".

Netanyahu opposed, and eventually helped to bury, the Israeli-Palestinian peace process of the 1990s, which held a two-state solution as its ultimate goal.

He now promotes a vision of an Israel whose borders extend as far as Jordan, voicing support for annexing parts of the occupied West Bank and undertaking measures to promote the growth of Israeli settlements which are illegal under international law.

As a younger man, Netanyahu served in an Israeli commando unit and fought in the 1973 Arab-Israeli war.

His early life's defining tragedy came when his elder brother Yonatan was killed leading the Entebbe hostage-rescue mission in Uganda.

"When the news reached me that Yoni had died, I felt as if my life had ended," Netanyahu later wrote.

Raised partly in the United States and a graduate of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), he became one of Israel's most visible spokesmen abroad, showing an ease on US television that has never left him.

Elected to parliament in 1988, he took over leadership of the right-wing Likud party in 1993. In 1996, in the first election after the assassination of peace-negotiating Yitzhak Rabin, Netanyahu pulled off an upset victory by the tiniest of margins and at age 46 became the youngest prime minister in Israeli history.

He served as head of government from 1996 to 1999, then again from 2009 to 2021, before returning to power in late 2022 by cobbling together a coalition that includes once-shunned extremists.

For years, Netanyahu maintained that the foundations of Israel's security rested on military strength, but he also gained a reputation for caution.

Adamantly opposed to a Palestinian state, Netanyahu saw Hamas rule in Gaza as a way to divide Palestinians and weaken the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority, which enjoys strong European support.

The Hamas attack exposed the failures of this setup. As the war in Gaza widened, Netanyahu began to frame the conflict as a generational struggle intended to reshape the region and uproot the influence of Iran's clerical state.

In recent months, he has repeated the refrain that he "changed the face of the Middle East".

- 'He spreads hatred' -

His supporters credit him with responding to Israel's darkest hour with unprecedented military resolve, and confronting Tehran directly -- something none of his predecessors had done.

Critics, however, say his actions have mired the country in intractable conflicts and made it a pariah on the world stage.

His rival Eisenkot has declared that Netanyahu "is unfit to remain in office".

"He spreads hatred, fear and portrays his rivals as enemies of Israel," Eisenkot told public broadcaster Kan.

But Netanyahu still has a powerful ally in US President Trump, whom he has called "the greatest friend Israel has ever had" in the White House.

He received the US president's endorsement 10 days before the vote, with Trump assuring him that he was "the man I want by my side".

Polls show Netanyahu is unlikely to be able to form a government on his own. But for decades, he has defied predictions of his downfall.

On Channel 14, a private station that supports him unquestioningly, he recently declared that the stakes of these elections were "the continued existence of the Jewish state, and to guarantee that, you must vote for the person who will get the job done".


Netanyahu Might Be Finished but His Policies Toward the Palestinians Will Largely Endure

A view of the Israeli settlement of Itamar from the village of Awarta, south of Nablus in the West Bank, 20 October 2026. (EPA)
A view of the Israeli settlement of Itamar from the village of Awarta, south of Nablus in the West Bank, 20 October 2026. (EPA)
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Netanyahu Might Be Finished but His Policies Toward the Palestinians Will Largely Endure

A view of the Israeli settlement of Itamar from the village of Awarta, south of Nablus in the West Bank, 20 October 2026. (EPA)
A view of the Israeli settlement of Itamar from the village of Awarta, south of Nablus in the West Bank, 20 October 2026. (EPA)

Israel's elections Tuesday could mark the end of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decades-long political career.

But his legacy in the Israeli-occupied West Bank — of massive settlement expansion, the displacement of tens of thousands of Palestinians and the empowerment of armed settler extremists — will likely endure, even if his opponents seek to rein it in.

Israelis are deeply divided over Netanyahu's leadership and moral character, but they largely support settlement expansion and are opposed to a Palestinian state. So, while Netanyahu's opponents have vowed to crack down on settler violence and remove the most contentious outposts, they are mostly against a two-state solution, seen internationally as the only realistic way to resolve the conflict.

“There shouldn’t be any illusions,” said Mairav Zonszein, senior Israel analyst at the International Crisis Group.

“At best, (a new government) would be able to slow down the extremely crazy acceleration that we’ve seen in the last four years of every aspect of Israel’s aggression in the occupied territories and inside Israel itself.”

An Israeli settler takes photographs of Palestinian farmers and foreign activists gathered to pick olives in the village of Turmus Ayya, northeast of Ramallah in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, on October 21, 2026. (AFP)

The military stands down in the face of settler violence

One legacy of Netanyahu’s nearly unbroken 17-year rule — the longest of any Israeli leader — is that large groups of armed settlers now routinely defy the Israeli military as they rampage through Palestinian communities, drive people from their homes and seize ever larger swaths of their land.

Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack out of Gaza turbocharged the process. Netanyahu's opponents could bring in more troops and authorize stricter measures, but the genie may already be out of the bottle.

Netanyahu's government has distributed thousands of firearms to the settlers, who have allies in the military and security forces. Some extremist settlers have become like sheriffs — making arrests, killing Palestinians they say posed a threat, summoning security forces and driving Palestinian families from their homes.

The Palestinian Tubasi family was forced out in July after settlers besieged their hilltop home in the West Bank village of Jalud for 19 days. The settlers cut off their water access and their electricity, and threatened to “barbecue” them if they didn’t leave, said Mahmoud Tubasi, 60, the patriarch.

An Israeli court ordered the military to bring the family back, but that hasn't happened. Troops aborted their latest mission soon after it began, when a mob of over 150 armed settlers quickly assembled, scaled the walls of the home and set a car on fire.

Troops threw Tubasi and his family into an armored jeep and drove them away as settlers torched the place. They now live in relatives' houses in the valley below their gutted and blackened home, around which settlers still roam.

Israel’s military did not respond to a request for comment.

“If they wanted to evacuate them, of course, 100%, they can do that,” Tubasi said. “This is an army that fights in Lebanon, Gaza and in Iran — they can’t control 150 or 200 settlers?”

Palestinian Hanan Hamayei gestures as she stands near the shattered glass of her home following a reported attack by Israeli settlers, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank village of Turmus Ayya on October 19, 2026. (AFP)

The process is repeated across the West Bank

Under Netanyahu, settlers have established over 250 rustic camps across the territory, focusing particularly on areas where Palestinian herding communities have dwelled for decades.

The outposts allow the settlers to effectively run Palestinians off vast rural areas by attacking shepherds, taking over water resources and grazing their own herds, all under the eye of Israeli troops.

Dror Etkes, a researcher with an Israeli anti-settlement group, says the outposts have allowed the settlers to seize effective control of around a fifth of the West Bank. Israel captured the territory, along with Gaza and east Jerusalem, in the 1967 Middle East war. The Palestinians want all three territories for their future state.

Since 2023, the strategy has forced at least 127 Palestinian herding communities off their land, according to data gathered by Etkes' organization, known as Kerem Navot, and B'Tselem, another Israeli anti-settlement group.

The departures have cleared nearly the entire eastern flank of the West Bank, along the border with Jordan, of Palestinians. The settlers' explicit goal is to prevent the establishment of a viable Palestinian state.

Netanyahu’s opponents say they will go after the most violent settlers and dismantle outposts, which are illegal under Israeli law. But they will not evacuate the over 100 new settlements Netanyahu's government legalized, including 44 that were formerly outposts. Nor will they remove settlements dating back decades, many of which now resemble fully developed suburbs.

Most of the international community views all Israeli settlements as illegal and an obstacle to a two-state solution. Israel views the West Bank as the biblical and historical heartland of the Jewish people and says its future status should be decided by negotiations, which have not been held in over a decade.

Even if some outposts are removed, many Palestinians seeking to return would find their homes burned and looted, and would continue to face threats from nearby settlers.

“The story is over. There will be no massive dismantlement of settlement,” said Etkes. “It’s now a full and prouder-than-ever apartheid regime.”

Amnesty International and other major rights groups accused Israel of the international crime of apartheid even before the Oct. 7 attack and its aftermath. Israel denies the allegation.

Palestinians harvest their olive trees in the Israeli-occupied West Bank village of Deir Abu Mashal on October 19, 2026. (AFP)

Netanyahu's opponents promise modest change

The politician most likely to replace Netanyahu as prime minister is retired general Gadi Eisenkot, a political centrist. He hopes to form a majority coalition with three other parties spanning Israel's political spectrum and without Arab-led parties advocating a two-state solution.

Beth Oppenheim, an Israel analyst for the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the opposition has “struggled to formulate a convincing alternative" to the right's new security strategy of “aggressively preempting threats, maintaining complete freedom of operation and imposing buffer zones.”

Palestinian attacks, like a shooting on Friday that killed two Israeli soldiers, and efforts on the right to cast the Israeli left as enemy sympathizers, have taken their toll. “The net effect is that talk of ‘peace’ and compromise has become politically toxic,” Oppenheim said.

Eisenkot does not support a Palestinian state, but is open to limited self-rule in the 40% of the West Bank currently administered by the Palestinian Authority under agreements reached in the 1990s. He would allow settlement growth in the other 60% of the territory, which is under direct Israeli military rule.

He has also vowed to empower Israeli troops and paramilitary Border Police to crack down on settler violence.

Eisenkot “is interested in lowering the friction in the West Bank and interested in definitely lowering the sanctions and the intention for sanctions by European countries,” Zonszein said. “He’ll do kind of the minimum necessary to get the maximum effect.”

Eisenkot's prospective allies include left-wing politicians who oppose settlements and have favored a two-state solution, but they have agreed to set those positions aside to form a coalition to oust Netanyahu.

Israeli leaders have long balanced their ambitions in the occupied territories with demands from Washington aimed at resolving the conflict. But they are unlikely to face any significant pressure from US President Donald Trump, who endorsed Netanyahu and has long backed his policies.