From Haftar to Dbeibah: The Map of Control and Influence in Libya

Haftar visits a military manufacturing facility (Libyan National Army) 
Haftar visits a military manufacturing facility (Libyan National Army) 
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From Haftar to Dbeibah: The Map of Control and Influence in Libya

Haftar visits a military manufacturing facility (Libyan National Army) 
Haftar visits a military manufacturing facility (Libyan National Army) 

Libya, once held together under the iron grip of Muammar Gaddafi, exploded into chaos after his ouster in 2011. Fourteen years later, the country remains fractured, yet a new map of military, political, and territorial control has emerged. It reflects not stability but shifting alliances, entrenched divisions, and the tug-of-war between rival powers vying for supremacy, from Khalifa Haftar in the east to Abdul Hamid Dbeibah in the west.

In 2014, General Khalifa Haftar, a former Gaddafi-era officer, launched a campaign to rebuild Libya’s disbanded army. As Tripoli and other western cities welcomed Islamist factions and extremist militias, Haftar began consolidating forces under a new banner -the Libyan National Army. Backed by the eastern-based House of Representatives, he was formally appointed commander-in-chief in 2015 by Speaker Aguila Saleh and was promoted to Field Marshal the following year.

Haftar’s supporters, such as Khaled Al-Turjuman, view this effort as a revival of the national military. What began as a force of just over 300 personnel has reportedly grown to more than 120,000 officers and soldiers. A recent military parade in Benghazi put this strength on full display, showcasing a broad arsenal of advanced weaponry. Haftar took the opportunity to issue a warning to rivals: “In the critical moment, the army will have the final word.”

Haftar’s influence extends beyond eastern Libya. His forces have consolidated control from Benghazi through Sirte and Jufra in the center, down to the southern borders with Sudan, Chad, Niger, and Algeria. One of the most strategically vital areas under his command is the oil crescent along the northeastern coast, encompassing Ras Lanuf, Sidra, Brega, and Zueitina, essential hubs for Libya’s oil exports.

Since 2019, Haftar has shifted his focus further south, targeting key cities such as Sabha, Brak al-Shati, and Ubari, and extending his reach to the far southwest in Ghat. He also controls southeastern border areas like Kufra, Al-Jawf, Al-Uwaynat, and the Tibesti Mountains near Chad. This southern push, some analysts argue, is part of a calculated strategy to project power beyond the traditional east-west divide. While Tripoli remains home to key sovereign institutions such as the Central Bank and National Oil Corporation, Haftar’s growing territorial grip has led critics to accuse him of attempting to militarize the state.

Military analyst Adel Abdul Kafi notes that most of Libya’s southern borders are now under Haftar’s effective control. He also points to a US-backed initiative involving joint forces from the east and west to secure Libya’s frontiers and coastlines.

Control over Libya’s energy resources remains a central pillar of Haftar’s power. Beyond the oil ports along the coast, he oversees several major oilfields in the south. The Sharara field in Ubari, producing approximately 315,000 barrels per day, and the El Feel (Elephant) field, with around 70,000 barrels daily, are among the most significant. Though these fields are managed by the National Oil Corporation headquartered in Tripoli, protection on the ground often comes from a patchwork of facility guards and local militias -- some loyal to Haftar, others to Dbeibah, and some switching sides as needed.

Haftar commands a network of military bases that support his campaigns in the east, center, and south. These include the Jufra Airbase, used as a launchpad during his failed 2019 offensive on Tripoli; Al-Khadim (also known as Al-Kharouba), where drone operations have been reported; Al-Abrag and Gamal Abdel Nasser airbases in the east; the Tamanhent base near Sabha; and Brak Al-Shati, which secures critical southern supply lines. Another strategic base, Ma’tan al-Sarra near Kufra, is rumored to host Russian forces, giving Moscow a potential gateway to the African Sahel.

Haftar’s military strength is matched by political clout. Though the eastern-based government of Osama Hammad is not internationally recognized, it operates with Haftar’s backing and funds development projects through the Libya Development and Reconstruction Fund, headed by Qassem Haftar, the commander’s son. Despite their expired mandates, the House of Representatives and the High Council of State continue to pass legislation and negotiate over the formation of a new government—deepening Libya’s institutional deadlock.

The Presidential Council, headed by Mohamed al-Menfi, was established under the 2020 Geneva agreement and holds formal international legitimacy. However, its actual power is limited. Though it is nominally the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, internal divisions and political agreements strip it of much of its authority. Even in the west, where it is based, the Council is overshadowed by the Government of National Unity under Abdul Hamid Dbeibah.

Dbeibah’s legitimacy has come under increasing scrutiny, especially after violent clashes erupted in Tripoli in May, sparked by the killing of militia leader Abdul Ghani Al-Kikli (Ghneiwa). These confrontations exposed the fragility of the security landscape in the capital and significantly weakened Dbeibah’s position. Though his term officially ended after being appointed in early 2021, he refuses to step down without elections, leaning on continued international support.

Despite controlling public spending and state institutions, Dbeibah’s grip on security is largely dependent on a volatile network of militias. Previously aligned with powerful groups like the Stability Support Apparatus and the Special Deterrence Force, Dbeibah has since fallen out with many of these factions. Following Ghneiwa’s death, he disbanded the SSA and entered into open conflict with Abdul Rauf Kara’s Deterrence Force, escalating tensions across Tripoli.

Today, Dbeibah relies primarily on the 444th Combat Brigade, led by Major General Mahmoud Hamza, who also heads Military Intelligence in western Libya. He is supported by the Joint Operations Force in Misrata and other militia groups, including Battalion 55 under Muammar Al-Dawi. These forces benefit from extensive support from Türkiye, which provides Bayraktar TB2 drones, limited radar systems, and military training facilities under prior agreements signed with former Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj.

Western Libya’s military infrastructure includes several important bases. Al-Watiya Airbase, southwest of Tripoli near the Tunisian border, is vital for control over the western region. Mitiga Airbase in Tripoli, currently controlled by the Deterrence Force, serves as a civilian and military airport. Abu Sitta Naval Base in Tripoli functions as the headquarters of the General Staff, with strong Turkish naval ties. Misrata Airbase, among the country’s most fortified, hosts Turkish personnel and hardware. Other key sites include Yarmouk Camp in Tripoli -- now reportedly housing Syrian mercenaries --April 7 Camp in Bab Ben Ghashir, and the Khums Naval Base near the city of Khums.

Tripoli remains the nerve center of Libya’s institutional framework, hosting the Unity Government, the Presidential Council, the High Council of State, the Central Bank, and the National Oil Corporation. Yet, control over western Libya’s border regions with Tunisia, Algeria, and Niger remains tenuous. In areas like Ubari, Ghat, and Murzuq -home to Tuareg and Tebu communities - authority shifts frequently among competing forces.

The frontline between the rival eastern and western coalitions lies just west of Sirte. Haftar’s forces control the city, while Dbeibah’s militias are stationed in its outskirts, near Misrata. Buwairat al-Husun marks the main demarcation line. Periodic troop mobilizations and skirmishes in the area fuel ongoing fears of a new confrontation.

 

 



Facts about Strait of Hormuz Shipping Blockade

Around a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz in peacetime. NASA Earth Observatory/AFP/File
Around a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz in peacetime. NASA Earth Observatory/AFP/File
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Facts about Strait of Hormuz Shipping Blockade

Around a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz in peacetime. NASA Earth Observatory/AFP/File
Around a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz in peacetime. NASA Earth Observatory/AFP/File

Here are the latest key facts and figures about the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route virtually paralyzed by the Middle East war.

Around a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the waterway in peacetime.

The war erupted on February 28 when the United States and Israel began bombing Iran, prompting Tehran to retaliate with strikes across the region and sharply restrict access to the strait.

First incident reported in over a week

The Express Rome, a Liberia-flagged container vessel, reported on Monday that two unknown projectiles splashed next to the moving ship within an hour of each other. All crew were reported safe.

The ship was 22 nautical miles northeast of the Ras Tanura port in Saudi Arabia, according to the British maritime security agency UKMTO and maritime security firm Vanguard Tech.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards previously claimed to have attacked the vessel on March 11, in a press release published by the ISNA news agency.

Monday's was the first such incident, attack or suspicious activity reported by the UKMTO since March 22.

Since March 1, 2026, 25 commercial vessels, including 11 tankers, have been attacked or reported incidents in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman, according to the UKMTO.

Drones struck fuel tanks at Oman's Salalah port on Saturday, injuring one worker and disrupting operations but hitting no vessels.

Eight sea workers killed

Since the conflict began, at least eight seafarers or dock workers have died in incidents in the region, according to the International Maritime Organization (IMO).

A further four remained missing and 10 were injured.

Around 20,000 seafarers are affected in the region, according to the IMO.

Handful of crossings

Seventeen commodities vessels crossed the strait over the weekend, 12 of them on Saturday, making it one of the busiest days for crossings since March 1, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler.

From March 1 to 30 as of 1700 GMT Monday, commodities carriers made just 196 crossings, according to Kpler data -- a decrease of 95 percent from peacetime.

Of these, 120 were by oil tankers and gas carriers and most were travelling east out of the strait.

Chinese container ships pass

On Monday, two further ships -- ultra-large container vessels owned by Chinese shipping giant Cosco -- appeared to have successfully crossed the strait after an aborted attempt last week, maritime tracker MarineTraffic said on X.

It interpreted their passage as "signaling a potential shift in conditions for commercial shipping".

Steel, soybeans shipped

Nine of the commodities ships passing through the strait over the weekend were dry bulk carriers transporting metals, iron ore pellets and soybean meal.

Four vessels were liquified petroleum gas tankers and the rest were liquid tankers.

The channel in peacetime sees around 120 daily transits, according to shipping industry intelligence site Lloyd's List.

2,000 ships in Gulf

Around 2,142 vessels have sent transponder signals in the Gulf west of the Strait of Hormuz in the past day, according to Bloomberg data.

Of those, 298 were tankers, including 10 very large gas carriers and 55 very large crude carriers.

Iran-approved route

Recent crossings appeared to have mainly used a route apparently approved by Iran around Larak Island just off the country's coast.

Leading shipping journal Lloyd's List last week said at least 34 ships had been tracked using it.

The Revolutionary Guards said the route was closed to vessels travelling to and from ports linked to Iran's "enemies".

45% sanctioned ships

Since the war started, 45 percent of the crossings have been by ships under US, EU or UK sanctions, according to an AFP analysis of passage data.

Of the crossings by oil and gas tankers, 62 percent were by vessels under sanctions.


What Could Trump Achieve by Threatening Iran's Kharg Island?

Some 90 percent of Iran's crude exports pass through Kharg Island, making it a potentially crucial pressure point for Tehran. EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY/AFP
Some 90 percent of Iran's crude exports pass through Kharg Island, making it a potentially crucial pressure point for Tehran. EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY/AFP
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What Could Trump Achieve by Threatening Iran's Kharg Island?

Some 90 percent of Iran's crude exports pass through Kharg Island, making it a potentially crucial pressure point for Tehran. EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY/AFP
Some 90 percent of Iran's crude exports pass through Kharg Island, making it a potentially crucial pressure point for Tehran. EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY/AFP

A scrubby island in the Gulf that is roughly one third the size of Manhattan, Kharg Island is the nerve center of the Iranian oil industry -- and at the heart of US President Donald Trump's latest efforts to pressure Tehran.

On Monday Trump vowed that a failure by Iran to agree a deal to end the war could see the United States "completely obliterating" the export hub.

A day earlier, he had said the United States could take the island, eyed by the Pentagon for ground operations, "very easily".

So what are Trump's options, and how might Iran react if he presses on this pressure point?

What is Kharg Island?

It may be a mere scrap of land, but Kharg handles around 90 percent of Iran's crude exports, according to a report by US bank JP Morgan.

Located in the north of the Gulf, around 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the Iranian coast and more than 500 kilometers from the Strait of Hormuz, it has no oil wells.

But it has Iran's largest oil terminal, oil pipelines, storage tanks and related infrastructure.

It also has military facilities, some of which have already been hit by Israeli-US strikes.

On March 13, "US forces executed a large-scale precision strike on Kharg Island", Centcom, the US military command for the region, said.

"The strike destroyed naval mine storage facilities, missile storage bunkers and multiple other military sites. US forces successfully struck more than 90 Iranian military targets on Kharg Island, while preserving the oil infrastructure."

Sources close to US intelligence services told US broadcaster CNN Iran had deployed additional troops and defense systems to the area in recent weeks, including MANPAD-type surface-to-air missiles and mines.

Trump's options?

There appear to be three routes for US forces wishing to seize the island -– an airborne attack; an amphibious operation; or a combination of the two.

The Pentagon is currently moving US paratroopers and Marines into the area.

"(The) US combat force build-up sets the stage for (a) potential ground offensive in Iran," said US think tank Soufan.

Centcom former commander General Joseph Votel told The War Zone website this month it would not take that many soldiers to seize Kharg.

"On a small island like Kharg, I imagine you'd need a battalion of Marines. We are therefore talking about a force of 800 to 1,000 men, perhaps a little fewer, certainly not much more," he said.

But taking Kharg and holding onto it "are two different things", stressed Professor Phillips O'Brien of the University of St Andrews in Scotland.

He said the US military would struggle to retain the island within range of Iranian missiles and drones.

Just 60 kilometers away is the city of Bushehr, an important military center "from which the Iranians defend the entire northern part of the Gulf, including Kharg", noted Pierre Razoux of French research center FMES.

Why do it?

Trump's war goals remain hazy. It is unclear whether he primarily wants to force Iran to reopen shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz; force regime change in Tehran; coerce the Iranians into concessions on their nuclear or ballistic missile programs.

In the short term, capturing Kharg could give Washington leverage to force Iran to negotiate -– presumably on Trump's terms, given the country's dependence on oil revenue, the Soufan Center said.

It might not have much effect in reopening the Gulf to shipping, however, because Iran controls a string of other islands in the Strait of Hormuz.

And if the Iranians choose not to cede to Trump's demands, "What does the US do?", O'Brien wondered.

"Does the US then, out of spite, level all the economic facilities on Kharg?

"That could easily boomerang back in American faces. It means oil prices skyrocket even more and stay high for much longer," he said.

"It also means Iran will be incentivized to shut down the traffic in the Straits for even longer. If they cannot get their own oil out, why let anyone else's?"


UN Peacekeepers in the Crossfire Between Israel and Hezbollah

 A UNIFIL vehicle drives past a Lebanese soldier, amid escalating hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, as the US-Israel conflict with Iran continues, in Qlayaa, southern Lebanon, March 27, 2026. (Reuters)
A UNIFIL vehicle drives past a Lebanese soldier, amid escalating hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, as the US-Israel conflict with Iran continues, in Qlayaa, southern Lebanon, March 27, 2026. (Reuters)
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UN Peacekeepers in the Crossfire Between Israel and Hezbollah

 A UNIFIL vehicle drives past a Lebanese soldier, amid escalating hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, as the US-Israel conflict with Iran continues, in Qlayaa, southern Lebanon, March 27, 2026. (Reuters)
A UNIFIL vehicle drives past a Lebanese soldier, amid escalating hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, as the US-Israel conflict with Iran continues, in Qlayaa, southern Lebanon, March 27, 2026. (Reuters)

United Nations peacekeepers, who for decades have served as a buffer between Israel and Lebanon, have seen three of their comrades killed and several others wounded since the latest war erupted between Israel and Hezbollah.

Here is an overview of the UN force in south Lebanon, whose mandate expires at the end of this year.

- In the firing line -

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) patrols the area around the country's southern border, where Hezbollah and Israel began clashing this month after the Iran-backed group drew Lebanon into the Middle East war by firing rockets at Israel.

Israeli forces have been pushing into areas north of the frontier, and officials have announced plans to establish a buffer zone up to the Litani River, around 30 kilometers (20 miles) from Israel.

On Monday, two peacekeepers were killed when "an explosion of unknown origin destroyed their vehicle", wounding at least two others, the force said.

The day before, an Indonesian peacekeeper was killed and three others wounded when a projectile, also of undetermined origin, exploded near a UNIFIL position.

And earlier this month, three Ghanaian peacekeepers were wounded when their base was hit, with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun accusing Israel of being responsible and UNIFIL saying it would investigate.

Over the years since its mission began in 1978, the force has lost around 340 members.

Visiting UN chief Antonio Guterres this month said attacks against peacekeepers and their positions were "completely unacceptable... and may constitute war crimes".

- Ceasefire monitors -

UNIFIL was set up in 1978 to monitor the withdrawal of Israeli forces after they invaded Lebanon to stem Palestinian attacks targeting northern Israel.

Israel again invaded in 1982, only withdrawing from south Lebanon in 2000.

After a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, UN Security Council Resolution 1701 bolstered UNIFIL's role and its peacekeepers were tasked with monitoring the ceasefire between the two sides.

UNIFIL patrols the Blue Line, the 120-kilometre (75-mile) de facto border between Lebanon and Israel, in coordination with the Lebanese army. It also has a maritime task force that supports Lebanon's navy.

The mission has its headquarters south Lebanon's Naqoura, which in recent years has hosted indirect border negotiations between Lebanon and Israel.

Following a November 2024 ceasefire that sought to end more than a year of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah over the Gaza war, UNIFIL became part of a five-member committee supervising that truce.

Under pressure from the United States and Israel, the UN Security Council voted last year to end the force's mandate on December 31, 2026, with an "orderly and safe drawdown and withdrawal" by the end of 2027.

- International force -

The mission currently involves around 8,200 peacekeepers from 47 countries, according to the force's website.

Top troop-contributing countries include Italy, Indonesia, Spain, India, Ghana, France, Nepal and Malaysia.

Italy's Major General Diodato Abagnara has headed the mission since June 2025.

UNIFIL patrols have occasionally faced harassment, though confrontations are typically defused by the Lebanese army.

In December 2022, an Irish peacekeeper was killed and three colleagues wounded when their convoy came under fire in south Lebanon.

- Border area -

Resolution 1701 of 2006 called for the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers to be the only armed forces deployed in the country's south.

UNIFIL had been supporting the army in dismantling Hezbollah infrastructure near the border in the months before the latest hostilities erupted, in line with a Lebanese government decision to disarm the group following the 2024 truce.

Hezbollah has long held sway over swathes of the south and has built tunnels and hideouts there, despite not having had a visible military presence in the border area since 2006.

- What comes next? -

Lebanese authorities want a continued international troop presence in the south after UNIFIL's exit, and have been urging European countries to stay.

Last month, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said Lebanon's army should replace the force when the peacekeepers withdraw.

Italy has said it intends to keep a military presence in Lebanon after UNIFIL leaves.