From Haftar to Dbeibah: The Map of Control and Influence in Libya

Haftar visits a military manufacturing facility (Libyan National Army) 
Haftar visits a military manufacturing facility (Libyan National Army) 
TT

From Haftar to Dbeibah: The Map of Control and Influence in Libya

Haftar visits a military manufacturing facility (Libyan National Army) 
Haftar visits a military manufacturing facility (Libyan National Army) 

Libya, once held together under the iron grip of Muammar Gaddafi, exploded into chaos after his ouster in 2011. Fourteen years later, the country remains fractured, yet a new map of military, political, and territorial control has emerged. It reflects not stability but shifting alliances, entrenched divisions, and the tug-of-war between rival powers vying for supremacy, from Khalifa Haftar in the east to Abdul Hamid Dbeibah in the west.

In 2014, General Khalifa Haftar, a former Gaddafi-era officer, launched a campaign to rebuild Libya’s disbanded army. As Tripoli and other western cities welcomed Islamist factions and extremist militias, Haftar began consolidating forces under a new banner -the Libyan National Army. Backed by the eastern-based House of Representatives, he was formally appointed commander-in-chief in 2015 by Speaker Aguila Saleh and was promoted to Field Marshal the following year.

Haftar’s supporters, such as Khaled Al-Turjuman, view this effort as a revival of the national military. What began as a force of just over 300 personnel has reportedly grown to more than 120,000 officers and soldiers. A recent military parade in Benghazi put this strength on full display, showcasing a broad arsenal of advanced weaponry. Haftar took the opportunity to issue a warning to rivals: “In the critical moment, the army will have the final word.”

Haftar’s influence extends beyond eastern Libya. His forces have consolidated control from Benghazi through Sirte and Jufra in the center, down to the southern borders with Sudan, Chad, Niger, and Algeria. One of the most strategically vital areas under his command is the oil crescent along the northeastern coast, encompassing Ras Lanuf, Sidra, Brega, and Zueitina, essential hubs for Libya’s oil exports.

Since 2019, Haftar has shifted his focus further south, targeting key cities such as Sabha, Brak al-Shati, and Ubari, and extending his reach to the far southwest in Ghat. He also controls southeastern border areas like Kufra, Al-Jawf, Al-Uwaynat, and the Tibesti Mountains near Chad. This southern push, some analysts argue, is part of a calculated strategy to project power beyond the traditional east-west divide. While Tripoli remains home to key sovereign institutions such as the Central Bank and National Oil Corporation, Haftar’s growing territorial grip has led critics to accuse him of attempting to militarize the state.

Military analyst Adel Abdul Kafi notes that most of Libya’s southern borders are now under Haftar’s effective control. He also points to a US-backed initiative involving joint forces from the east and west to secure Libya’s frontiers and coastlines.

Control over Libya’s energy resources remains a central pillar of Haftar’s power. Beyond the oil ports along the coast, he oversees several major oilfields in the south. The Sharara field in Ubari, producing approximately 315,000 barrels per day, and the El Feel (Elephant) field, with around 70,000 barrels daily, are among the most significant. Though these fields are managed by the National Oil Corporation headquartered in Tripoli, protection on the ground often comes from a patchwork of facility guards and local militias -- some loyal to Haftar, others to Dbeibah, and some switching sides as needed.

Haftar commands a network of military bases that support his campaigns in the east, center, and south. These include the Jufra Airbase, used as a launchpad during his failed 2019 offensive on Tripoli; Al-Khadim (also known as Al-Kharouba), where drone operations have been reported; Al-Abrag and Gamal Abdel Nasser airbases in the east; the Tamanhent base near Sabha; and Brak Al-Shati, which secures critical southern supply lines. Another strategic base, Ma’tan al-Sarra near Kufra, is rumored to host Russian forces, giving Moscow a potential gateway to the African Sahel.

Haftar’s military strength is matched by political clout. Though the eastern-based government of Osama Hammad is not internationally recognized, it operates with Haftar’s backing and funds development projects through the Libya Development and Reconstruction Fund, headed by Qassem Haftar, the commander’s son. Despite their expired mandates, the House of Representatives and the High Council of State continue to pass legislation and negotiate over the formation of a new government—deepening Libya’s institutional deadlock.

The Presidential Council, headed by Mohamed al-Menfi, was established under the 2020 Geneva agreement and holds formal international legitimacy. However, its actual power is limited. Though it is nominally the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, internal divisions and political agreements strip it of much of its authority. Even in the west, where it is based, the Council is overshadowed by the Government of National Unity under Abdul Hamid Dbeibah.

Dbeibah’s legitimacy has come under increasing scrutiny, especially after violent clashes erupted in Tripoli in May, sparked by the killing of militia leader Abdul Ghani Al-Kikli (Ghneiwa). These confrontations exposed the fragility of the security landscape in the capital and significantly weakened Dbeibah’s position. Though his term officially ended after being appointed in early 2021, he refuses to step down without elections, leaning on continued international support.

Despite controlling public spending and state institutions, Dbeibah’s grip on security is largely dependent on a volatile network of militias. Previously aligned with powerful groups like the Stability Support Apparatus and the Special Deterrence Force, Dbeibah has since fallen out with many of these factions. Following Ghneiwa’s death, he disbanded the SSA and entered into open conflict with Abdul Rauf Kara’s Deterrence Force, escalating tensions across Tripoli.

Today, Dbeibah relies primarily on the 444th Combat Brigade, led by Major General Mahmoud Hamza, who also heads Military Intelligence in western Libya. He is supported by the Joint Operations Force in Misrata and other militia groups, including Battalion 55 under Muammar Al-Dawi. These forces benefit from extensive support from Türkiye, which provides Bayraktar TB2 drones, limited radar systems, and military training facilities under prior agreements signed with former Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj.

Western Libya’s military infrastructure includes several important bases. Al-Watiya Airbase, southwest of Tripoli near the Tunisian border, is vital for control over the western region. Mitiga Airbase in Tripoli, currently controlled by the Deterrence Force, serves as a civilian and military airport. Abu Sitta Naval Base in Tripoli functions as the headquarters of the General Staff, with strong Turkish naval ties. Misrata Airbase, among the country’s most fortified, hosts Turkish personnel and hardware. Other key sites include Yarmouk Camp in Tripoli -- now reportedly housing Syrian mercenaries --April 7 Camp in Bab Ben Ghashir, and the Khums Naval Base near the city of Khums.

Tripoli remains the nerve center of Libya’s institutional framework, hosting the Unity Government, the Presidential Council, the High Council of State, the Central Bank, and the National Oil Corporation. Yet, control over western Libya’s border regions with Tunisia, Algeria, and Niger remains tenuous. In areas like Ubari, Ghat, and Murzuq -home to Tuareg and Tebu communities - authority shifts frequently among competing forces.

The frontline between the rival eastern and western coalitions lies just west of Sirte. Haftar’s forces control the city, while Dbeibah’s militias are stationed in its outskirts, near Misrata. Buwairat al-Husun marks the main demarcation line. Periodic troop mobilizations and skirmishes in the area fuel ongoing fears of a new confrontation.

 

 



A Look at the Major Candidates in Israel’s Election Next Week

21 October 2026, Israel, Tel Aviv: An election campaign poster for the Gadi Eisenkot, is displayed in the street. (dpa)
21 October 2026, Israel, Tel Aviv: An election campaign poster for the Gadi Eisenkot, is displayed in the street. (dpa)
TT

A Look at the Major Candidates in Israel’s Election Next Week

21 October 2026, Israel, Tel Aviv: An election campaign poster for the Gadi Eisenkot, is displayed in the street. (dpa)
21 October 2026, Israel, Tel Aviv: An election campaign poster for the Gadi Eisenkot, is displayed in the street. (dpa)

Three years after the Hamas-led attacks on Israel that triggered the war in Gaza, Israeli voters will decide next week whether to grant Benjamin Netanyahu yet another term as prime minister — or usher in a new era of Israeli politics.

Polling suggests a tight race between Netanyahu, leader of the nationalist Likud party, and his chief rival, Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the centrist Yashar! for control of the government.

Israelis vote for parties, which then form alliances to create a majority coalition. No single party has ever won a majority in the 120-member parliament, or Knesset.

Here is a look at some of the most important leaders of the major parties ahead of the election:

Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister

Netanyahu, 77, is Israel’s longest-serving prime minister and the most dominant force in Israeli politics, having persevered through wars, crises, scandals and the Oct. 7, 2023 attack — the deadliest in Israel's history. He is the longtime leader of the Likud party, and supporters point to his record on security and the economy, as well as his close ties with US President Donald Trump, who has endorsed Netanyahu.

Netanyahu's opponents say he's responsible for the policy and security failures that preceded the Oct. 7, 2023, attack and accuse him of mismanaging the wars that followed. In 2024, the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for Netanyahu's arrest over allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity. He is also embroiled in a years-long legal scandal at home, having been charged with fraud, breach of trust and accepting bribes. Netanyahu denies any wrongdoing.

Gadi Eisenkot, former military chief of staff

Eisenkot, 66, comes from a working-class family of Jewish Moroccan immigrants. He spent four decades rising through the ranks of Israel's military, eventually becoming the chief of staff. The general currently leads the largest opposition party — the centrist Yashar! — after entering politics in 2022. His son and two nephews were all killed in combat in Gaza following the Oct. 7 attacks.

Eisenkot also served as an observer in Netanyahu's war cabinet, but resigned after eight months, when he accused the prime minister of lacking a clear strategy. He has since positioned himself as a moderate alternative to Netanyahu, but remains hawkish on security. Eisenkot is credited with formulating Israel’s so‑called “Dahiyeh Doctrine,” a military strategy calling for the use of disproportionate power in areas from which militants launch attacks.

If he succeeds in forming a coalition, Eisenkot could become the first Israeli prime minister of Mizrahi descent. Israel's Mizrahim, who come from North Africa and the Middle East, have historically faced discrimination from the country's European-descended elite.

Former Israeli Prime Minister and candidate for Knesset, Naftali Bennett (C) reacts as he campaigns in Jerusalem, 19 October 2026. (EPA)

Naftali Bennett, former prime minister

Bennett, 54, is the right-wing and religiously observant leader of Beyachad (Together), a joint ticket with centrist politician Yair Lapid. He opposes Palestinian independence and supports settlement-building in the occupied West Bank.

Before entering the Knesset in 2013, Bennett served as Netanyahu's chief of staff and also was head of the Yesha Council, an umbrella organization of local authorities inside Israeli settlements. His conservative Yamina party won seven seats, which helped him cobble together a coalition of both left-wing and Arab parties. He then briefly served as prime minister in 2021, the result of a power-sharing agreement, also with Lapid.

While Bennett, like Netanyahu, takes a hard line toward the Palestinians, the two men have deep disagreements over Netanyahu's handling of security issues and his battle against the Israeli legal system.

Itamar Ben-Gvir, national security minister

Ben-Gvir, 50, is Israel's national security minister and a far-right provocateur with multiple convictions, including for supporting a terrorist organization. He leads Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power), an ultra-nationalist party whose strong showing in the last election secured him his Cabinet post and helped push Netanyahu's coalition further to the right.

Ultra-Orthodox Jews pass an election billboard of Minister of National Security and leader of the Otzma Yehudit party, Itamar Ben-Gvir, with a Hebrew slogan reading "Ben-Gvir strong, Israel strong", in an ultra-Orthodox neighborhood in Jerusalem, 21 October 2026. (EPA)

He is a trained lawyer who gained recognition by successfully defending right-wing Jewish extremists accused of violence against Palestinians. When Ben-Gvir was a teenager, the military refused to draft him because of his extreme views. He was also a follower of Meir Kahane, the violently racist rabbi who advocated for expelling Palestinians from Israel, Gaza and the West Bank.

Ben-Gvir has also laid out plans for what he says would be the “voluntary” emigration of roughly 2 million Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, where he has advocated for re-building Jewish settlements.

Mansour Abbas, Knesset member and leader of Ra'am

Abbas, 52, is a Palestinian Arab politician and dentist from northern Israel. He leads Ra'am, an Islamist party that was the first Arab-led party to join a governing coalition in 2021.

His strategy has been to focus on more local issues, such as crime in Arab communities, rather than the larger Israeli-Palestinian conflict, in the hopes it will win Ra'am more seats in the Knesset and court potential coalition partners.

As part of this push, Abbas named former police commander and centrist Jewish politician Yoav Segalovitz as the number two candidate on Ra'am's electoral list. Abbas has served in the Knesset since 2019.


Israel’s Election May Change Its Leader, but Not Iran War Policy

A woman passes by an election billboard of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with Hebrew slogan reading "will not surrender" in Jerusalem, 21 October 2026. (EPA)
A woman passes by an election billboard of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with Hebrew slogan reading "will not surrender" in Jerusalem, 21 October 2026. (EPA)
TT

Israel’s Election May Change Its Leader, but Not Iran War Policy

A woman passes by an election billboard of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with Hebrew slogan reading "will not surrender" in Jerusalem, 21 October 2026. (EPA)
A woman passes by an election billboard of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with Hebrew slogan reading "will not surrender" in Jerusalem, 21 October 2026. (EPA)

Israel's election next week may change its leader, but not its strategy: Iran will remain its chief adversary, military force will continue to be its preferred tool and Palestinian statehood a distant prospect, regional policymakers and analysts say.

That is because the strategic assumptions underpinning Israeli policy were hardened by the October 7, 2023, attacks on southern Israeli communities by Palestinian group Hamas and by the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

If anything, Israel could toughen its security policy, the analysts said, as victory for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with the backing of far-right coalition partners could embolden him to step up the war with Iran, tighten Israel's grip on the occupied West Bank and push diplomacy further to the margins.

Israel's security doctrine now rests on three pillars: breaking Iran, holding buffer zones beyond its borders and using force to deter enemies.

The real divide is one of degree rather than direction — how aggressively Israel fights its wars, how far it expands Jewish settlements in the West Bank and whether any leader opts for diplomacy, the analysts said.

From Tehran to ‌Riyadh, Tuesday's election ‌is not seen as a potential turning point but as a test of whether the Middle East is ‌settling ⁠into a long ⁠confrontation, where wars ebb and flow while the underlying conflicts are unresolved.

"If Netanyahu is elected, he'll do whatever he thinks he wants to do," said Aviv Bushinsky, a former adviser to Netanyahu. "Expansion of the settlements will continue. The wars against Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah will continue."

"What you see now is what you'll see after the election, maybe even more aggressively," he said. "As long as Iran is in such a situation, it's a waste of time talking about Palestine.”

Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel must prioritize “prevention and offence over containment and defense”, including pre-emptive strikes to thwart emerging threats, while establishing Israel as a regional power and maximizing its independence in armaments.

WHY THE COURSE IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE

The election pits Netanyahu's right-wing Likud and its ultranationalist allies against an opposition led ⁠by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party.

Palestinian analyst Ghassan al-Khatib sees no prospect of a fundamental shift ‌in policy towards the Palestinians, with Israeli political parties competing to project harder-line positions as public opinion ‌moves further to the right.

“The substance of the policy remains the same: No to a Palestinian state and yes to further settlement expansion. On this, they ‌are all in agreement,” he said.

A government led by Netanyahu's opponents might seek to repair Israel's international standing by curbing some settler violence or ‌pursuing settlement expansion with less fanfare. But such changes would be a shift in style rather than substance, al-Khatib said.

Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center said Israel's security establishment and much of its political class share a common strategic outlook, centered on confronting Iran, maintaining "forward defense" and preserving military deterrence, reducing the scope for big policy shifts.

Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group, who has conducted research in the West Bank, said growing settler violence, mounting Palestinian frustration and the absence ‌of a "political horizon" had created combustible conditions, where even a minor trigger could spark a wider uprising.

'VENOMOUS OCTOPUS'

Some regional policymakers ask whether Israel's confrontation with Iran has become the organizing principle of Middle East security, ⁠regardless of who wins the ⁠election.

US President Donald Trump's praise of Netanyahu as a "great warrior prime minister" has reinforced expectations that the Israeli leader will try to finish the campaign against Tehran if he retains power.

Netanyahu has made clear his ambitions extend beyond containing Iran to toppling its clerical rulers.

“Completing the task means toppling the terrorist regime in Iran, the head of the venomous octopus,” he said in a speech this week.

But military and political analysts question whether anything short of a US-Israeli ground invasion would force Tehran to abandon what it views as its core security interests in what it sees as an existential fight.

After surviving months of war, Iran may be betting it can outlast its opponents while continuing to exert pressure through regional allies.

"This is a quagmire," Young said. "The Iranians can outlast Trump."

Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza have been weakened, but the broader network of Iran-aligned groups has survived and the conflict could strengthen Tehran's determination to pursue a nuclear deterrent, the analysts said.

"Netanyahu's policies in Gaza, the West Bank, Syria and Lebanon are damaging," said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research Center. "As for Iran, a settlement is needed before the conflict escalates further. If Iran's role is not curbed, the region could be heading toward 50 years of Iranian hegemony."


Israel’s Elections: Four Possible Scenarios

A partially-torn billboard for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is displayed in southern Tel Aviv on October 20, 2026. (AFP)
A partially-torn billboard for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is displayed in southern Tel Aviv on October 20, 2026. (AFP)
TT

Israel’s Elections: Four Possible Scenarios

A partially-torn billboard for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is displayed in southern Tel Aviv on October 20, 2026. (AFP)
A partially-torn billboard for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is displayed in southern Tel Aviv on October 20, 2026. (AFP)

Israel goes to the polls on October 27 with results forecast to be close, meaning that the next government will be determined by whoever can cobble together a coalition in a fragmented political landscape.

Israel votes through proportional representation based on the nationwide vote and it is highly unlikely that any single party would come even close to the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat parliament, or Knesset.

Here are four possible scenarios:

Coalition

Immediately after the election, the parties will begin negotiations to try to reach the 61-seat threshold.

After the official announcement of the results, President Isaac Herzog will consult with party representatives and name a candidate who has the chance to form a government -- not necessarily the party with the most seats, but the one deemed best positioned to secure enough seats in parliament.

The negotiations can be arduous and lengthy, with parties insisting on parochial interests, and can produce unstable governments.

Following the previous election in November 2022, it took Benjamin Netanyahu 58 days to form his government.

People walk past a Likud party campaign billboard featuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alongside opposition party leaders and bearing the Hebrew slogan "Right or Palestine," ahead of Israel's general election, in Beni Brak, Israel, Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026. (AP)

Polls show that Netanyahu's right-wing and far-right coalition and the opposition bloc, whose most prominent figure is former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, are neck and neck, with approximately 50 to 52 seats each.

The two sides have been nearly even in polls for weeks, foreshadowing a mathematical puzzle that both sides will have to solve to find the 10 or so seats needed for a coalition.

Israeli political history is full of twists and turns, with defections and other unexpected shifts in alliances.

Israel also has two new right-wing parties that are seen as scratching the threshold of entering parliament, where they could throw their decisive support to one of the two blocs.

Minority government

If no bloc manages to secure 61 seats, a candidate could attempt to govern without a majority but rather through support on an ad hoc basis by other lawmakers.

In this scenario, lawmakers from Israel's Arab minority -- who make up 20 percent of the population and generally identify as Palestinians -- could play a critical role. Polls show that two Arab-Israeli lists, the Joint List and Raam, could win 12 to 14 seats in total.

Raam, led by Mansour Abbas, a kingmaker in the past, has stated its willingness to work with Eisenkot's bloc, and the Joint List has offered to provide a "safety net" for any coalition that ousts Netanyahu from power.

But the leading figures in the opposition bloc are reluctant to publicly acknowledge such a possibility, due to the hostility of a large segment of the Jewish electorate towards any form of alliance with Israeli Arabs.

This has not prevented Netanyahu from focusing his campaign on the possibility of Eisenkot working with Arab parties, campaigning on the slogan, "Either the right wing or Palestine."

Gadi Eisenkot, former Israeli military chief of staff and leader of the centrist Yashar "Straight" party delivers a statement ahead of Israel's general election near Israel-Gaza border, southern Israel, Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026. (AP)

National unity government

Considering Israel's extreme polarization, a national unity government would appear fanciful, but it could theoretically create a less extreme government.

Israeli commentators have often mused on the possibility of a national unity government in which Netanyahu would jettison his provocative far-right allies as well as ultra-Orthodox parties and team up with Eisenkot, who shares Netanyahu's views on many security issues.

The grand coalition would also exclude Arab parties.

A poll published on October 16 found that 55 percent of Israelis would prefer a national unity government over new elections if the vote did not produce a clear majority.

This scenario has a recent precedent. In 2020, Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, like Eisenkot a retired general appealing to the center, reached a power-sharing agreement after three elections in less than a year, which stipulated a rotation of the prime ministership.

But the partnership fell apart after a year, triggering a new election. According to media reports, Herzog is working behind the scenes to bring Netanyahu and Eisenkot together to repeat the experiment should a deadlock occur after October 27.

However, the scenario would face strong opposition from both sides, particularly from the opposition bloc, which is treating the election as a referendum against Netanyahu and has questioned his character.

Deadlock and new elections

If no candidate manages to form a government, Israel will have to return to the polls.

The country held four elections between April 2019 and March 2021 due to the inability of politicians to forge a lasting coalition.

The candidate designated by the president will, in principle, have 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension, although there are other procedural ways to prevent an immediate calling of new elections.