European officials have been working on ways to convince Donald Trump to keep the United States in NATO despite severe tensions over the Iran war. But his abrupt move to cut US forces in Germany is the latest sign that such efforts have their limits and are far from certain to succeed.
The substance of the decision announced on Friday to remove 5,000 troops from Germany did not come as a surprise to NATO officials. European leaders have agreed with the US president that Europeans will take over more responsibility for their own security from US forces.
Dropping a plan to deploy long-range US Tomahawk missiles to Germany was more concerning for Berlin. But even that was not a huge shock, as that deal was made by Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, and US Tomahawk stocks have been depleted by the US-Israeli war against Iran.
More alarming for European governments was how the move was made – with little prior notification or consultation and with US officials linking it to Trump’s displeasure at German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s criticism of US conduct of the Iran war.
“What is worrying is not the figure of 5,000 troops, but the political signal from Washington that longstanding, absolutely reliable partnerships no longer seem to count for anything and appear to be subject to arbitrary decisions,” said Siemtje Moeller, a senior lawmaker from Germany’s Social Democrats, who are part of Merz’s governing coalition.
The move followed accusations by Trump that US allies have not been doing enough to support the US in the Iran war and suggestions by him that this meant Washington no longer needs to honor the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defense clause.
Trump also pushed the alliance to the brink by threatening to take Greenland from Denmark, a fellow NATO member. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte helped to defuse that crisis but the underlying dispute has not been resolved.
European diplomats say they fear Trump may make further moves that could test the alliance before a summit of its 32 national leaders in Ankara in July, especially if the Iran war is not over by then and he is still venting anger at allies.
"The longer game for NATO and European allies is getting through Ankara," said a European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. "We need to do things with the Americans if we can, and without them if we must.”
EUROPEANS PUSH BACK ON TRUMP CRITICISM
Defense experts say Europeans have little choice but to try to keep the US on board, given their heavy reliance on the United States to deter any possible attack by Russia.
As part of their efforts to convince Trump of the value of European allies, officials have said many European countries are honoring agreements to allow US forces to use bases on their soil and fly in their airspace during the Iran campaign - even if they are not keen to advertise the fact, given Trump and the war are deeply unpopular in much of Europe.
While Spain has banned the use of bases on its territory, Rutte said countries including Britain, Croatia, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Montenegro, Portugal and Romania were delivering on their commitments.
European officials are also working to make a broader case to Trump, other US officials, lawmakers and Republican-friendly think tanks that it is in their interests to stick with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Their efforts include highlighting support for a post-war mission in the Strait of Hormuz, underlining the military and economic value of European allies and demonstrating that Europe is taking on a greater role within NATO, diplomats say.
DIFFERENCES AMONG NATO LEADERS ON IRAN WAR
While there is broad support for these efforts across the alliance, the crisis has also exposed stark differences among European NATO leaders over how to respond to the war on Iran.
Leaders of Western European countries such as Spain, France and Germany have voiced blunt criticism, reflecting domestic public opinion but risking Trump’s ire.
Rutte, by contrast, has made clear he sees anti-war rhetoric as unhelpful. Some eastern European countries, fearing any weakening of NATO will embolden Russia, have taken a similar view, diplomats say.
“When European countries are saying ‘this is not our war’, it irritated the hell out of me,” Rutte told "What the Hell is Going on", a podcast hosted by the American Enterprise Institute think tank, after meeting Trump in Washington last month.
On Monday, Rutte also said several countries were "pre-positioning essential logistical and other support" such as minehunters and minesweepers near the Gulf to be ready for a possible Strait of Hormuz mission after the war ends.
The Netherlands, Belgium and Germany have said they are sending ships that could be part of such a mission. France, which is leading planning of a potential mission with Britain, also has ships in the Middle East that could take part.
"European leaders have gotten the message, they’ve heard the message from the US loud and clear," Rutte told reporters at a summit of European leaders in Armenia.
