‘Total’ Reviews Iranian Deal in Case US Reimposes Sanctions

Total Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne speaks during the launching of Total Spring in Paris, France, October 5, 2017. Reuters
Total Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne speaks during the launching of Total Spring in Paris, France, October 5, 2017. Reuters
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‘Total’ Reviews Iranian Deal in Case US Reimposes Sanctions

Total Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne speaks during the launching of Total Spring in Paris, France, October 5, 2017. Reuters
Total Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne speaks during the launching of Total Spring in Paris, France, October 5, 2017. Reuters

French oil and gas major Total would have to review its Iran gas project if the United States decided to impose unilateral sanctions on Tehran, given its interests in the US market, Total’s chief executive told CNN.

Last month, US President Donald Trump unveiled a tough and comprehensive new policy towards Iran. He accused Tehran of violating the nuclear accord and announced that he would no longer certify that the lifting of sanctions was in US interests.

The agreement is now effectively in limbo while Congress decides how to respond as it now has about a month to decide whether it will re-impose sanctions on Iran.

“Either we can do the deal legally if there is a legal framework,” Patrick Pouyanne said in remarks made to CNNMoney Emerging Markets late on Monday.

“If we cannot do that for legal reasons, because of change of regime of sanctions, then we have to review it.”

Pouyanne’s office confirmed to AFP that the interview had taken place.

“If there is a sanctions regime on Iran, then we will have to study it carefully,” Pouyanne also said.

“We work in the USA, we have assets there and we have just acquired more assets in the US” he added.

Total has become the first major Western oil company to sign an agreement with Iran to develop phase 11 of the giant South Pars gas field, the world's largest gas field.

It increased its US presence in November 8 with the purchase of a portfolio of liquified natural gas assets from Engie (ENGIY), including the company's stake in the Cameron LNG project in Louisiana, one of the first new gas export terminals in North America.

Iran has repeatedly said Total's agreement on the South Pars field demonstrated the success of the nuclear deal, hoping that other Western and Asian companies would sign agreements with Iran.

However, fearing possible US sanctions, western companies and major international banks are still reluctant to invest in Iran.

Pouyanne said that until the US makes its decision, it would push ahead with the South Pars deal, repeating that the company hoped for first contracts to be concluded by January.



Economists Warn of Global Trade Risks from Israel-Iran Conflict

Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)
Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)
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Economists Warn of Global Trade Risks from Israel-Iran Conflict

Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)
Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)

Economic experts have warned that a protracted conflict between Israel and Iran could have far-reaching repercussions on the global economy, driving up energy prices and disrupting key sectors including aviation, insurance, trade, and maritime navigation.

 

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Saudi Shura Council member Fadl Al-Buainain said the ongoing military confrontation is already impacting global energy markets, with oil prices spiking to multi-month highs in the immediate aftermath of the outbreak.

 

He warned that continued Iranian threats to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz could further fuel the surge in energy prices. “Such an act would be hostile, not only to Gulf nations but also to global consumers, compounding the challenges already facing the world economy”, Al-Buainain said.

 

He stressed that the energy sector is particularly vulnerable to military escalations. “Any disruption to oil production or exports from major producers could send oil and gas prices skyrocketing, with direct consequences for global economic stability”, he said.

 

While current military actions have had limited impact on output and exports, Al-Buainain cautioned that any direct strikes on energy infrastructure could push oil prices above $100 per barrel, depending on how badly global supply chains are hit.

 

The conflict has already disrupted international flight routes and increased operational costs for airlines, he said, while surging risk premiums have driven up insurance costs across the region. Maritime trade and shipping lanes are also at risk of direct disruption.

 

Al-Buainain noted that the fallout will vary across the region. He pointed out that Saudi Arabia, thanks to its strategic location and Red Sea ports, is better positioned to maintain the flow of trade. The kingdom also benefits from pipelines that transport oil from the east to the west, partially shielding its exports from Gulf disruptions.

 

He described energy as the “real engine” of the global economy and said it, along with foreign trade, will bear the brunt of the economic impact. "But the human cost and developmental setbacks caused by war are far worse”, he added.

 

Al-Buainain warned that prospects for a swift diplomatic resolution are diminishing. “Starting wars is easier than ending them,” he said, adding that an Iranian move to shut down Hormuz, while difficult in practice, could spark a direct confrontation with global powers, particularly the United States. “If American interests are attacked, Washington could be drawn into the conflict, which risks expanding beyond control”.

 

Khaled Ramadan, head of the Cairo-based International Center for Strategic Studies, said Israel’s strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, including the Abadan refinery, which has a capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, could severely reduce oil and gas supplies if the conflict drags on.

 

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that Brent crude had already risen 8–13% following the escalation, crossing $78 per barrel. “Should the Strait of Hormuz be closed, we could see oil prices surge to record levels”, he warned.

 

Ramadan said the conflict could also disrupt global supply chains, especially through Hormuz, affecting non-oil goods such as electronics and food. Shipping and insurance costs would rise, leading to higher consumer prices and a slowdown in global trade.

 

Food staples such as wheat and corn, along with petrochemicals, garments, electronics, auto parts, and pharmaceuticals are all likely to see price increases, he said, citing higher energy and transport costs as well as declining market confidence.

 

Ramadan added that the economic fallout includes rising inflation, weakening currencies, and a drop in investment — particularly in tourism and tech.

 

“The Iranian rial and Israeli shekel have already hit their lowest levels this year,” he noted, adding that the war could reshape global energy alliances, with Europe increasingly seeking alternative suppliers.