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Israeli-Iranian Clash: A Test for both Sides in Syria

Israeli security stands around the wreckage of an F-16 that crashed in northern Israel, February 10, 2018. (AP)
Israeli security stands around the wreckage of an F-16 that crashed in northern Israel, February 10, 2018. (AP)
    Tel Aviv – Nazeer Majali
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Israeli-Iranian Clash: A Test for both Sides in Syria

Israeli security stands around the wreckage of an F-16 that crashed in northern Israel, February 10, 2018. (AP)
Israeli security stands around the wreckage of an F-16 that crashed in northern Israel, February 10, 2018. (AP)

In Israel, they know that something new happened on the Syrian front. The developments may not lead to a dangerous escalation at this point, because Russia has moved to contain the situation, saying that it does not want further escalation.

According to sources in Tel Aviv, Tehran and Damascus share the sentiment to avert escalation.

Now all sides involved in the tensions will go about analyzing what happened, derive lessons and take strategic decisions later.

The first assessment is that after 34 years of calm and seven years of tolerating Israeli strikes and refraining from retaliating to them, an S-200 missile was fired at the jets, downing one and forcing another to an emergency landing.

We cannot say that this change was completely unexpected. In Israel, they had been debating the possibility of a change in the Syrian stance on repeated Israeli strikes. They predicted that the Syrian air defense would shoot at an Israeli jet, especially after the regime’s achievements on the ground against the opposition and with Russian and Iranian support. According to Israeli assessments, the regime has been boastful and arrogant as of late, all boosted by Iran and Russia.

All these factors made Israel suspect that the regime had something in store, so it threatened it. Israel had spoken several months ago about the danger of the Iranian project and the expansion of its “crescent” to include Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. This expansion has reached the Mediterranean, Yemen and the Red Sea.

Over the past weeks, we had heard direct threats against Iran and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netayahu had traveled to Moscow to meet President Vladimir Putin to inform him of Iran’s dangerous expansion. The expansion is creating a new reality and transforming Syria into an arena for an Israel-Iranian clash.

This same stance was presented before several European leaders, as well as, undoubtedly, US President Donald Trump.

On the ground, Israel struck a Syrian position in September which is known for its Iranian activity. In December, it struck Shi’ite militia positions near Damascus, in what was a direct hit against Iranian presence in Syria.

Over the past two days, signs of a change in the Syrian response began to emerge. Israel first struck a research center near Damascus and the regime responded by firing several missiles against the jets. Damascus claimed to have downed an aircraft, while Israel declined to comment. It did however acknowledge that a plane was damaged. On Wednesday, Netanyahu and his ministers carried out a field visit to the Golan where they made direct threats to Iran and Syria.

The new change is that Iran has now become part of the scene and it retaliated to the recent developments by dispatching on Friday a drone to fly over Israel and wander some 40 kilometers deep into its airspace before Israel discovered and downed it.

The explanation in Israel is that Iran’s flying of the drone was a stunt that was not aimed at espionage, but to show the Israelis that they were capable of infiltrating its airspace in spite of their advanced defenses.

Israel understood the message and it apparently was prepared for it. It had compiled a list of targets to that end and it consequently retaliated by first downing the Iranian drone and then carrying out air strikes against 12 joint Syrian-Iranian targets.

Four Iranian positions are among these targets. The largest is the T-4 airbase in the Palmyra region. This strategic base is used by both the Iranians and Russians. Coordination with Moscow was therefore necessary to avoid striking Russian jets or batteries during the Israeli raid.

On the Iranian and Syrian side, the goal was to achieve a morale victory in the retaliation against Israel that would create an appropriate “balance of fear”, said the Tel Aviv sources.

In the end, the Israeli strikes were a success, but the Syrian air defense tarnished this victory when it downed one of Israel’s F-16 jets. It was not just any F-16, but one of the most modern ones in Israel.

The Israelis described its downing as a “painful blow”. Preliminary investigations focused on whether its pilots were reckless in their mission.

Most significant in these developments was that Iran responded directly to Israel. It achieved two goals: The first is successfully retaliating to Israeli raids and the second is that it is now in a direct confrontation with Israel.

It managed to deliver the message that future Israeli strikes will not be a cakewalk. It also sent a message to not only Israel, but to the United States and Russia that Iran will not be a “punching bag” like Syria and Gaza. They should not expect a strike to go without a response. The third message is directed to Damascus itself and that is that the Iranian request for the establishment of a naval base in Syria will benefit Iran and Syria. The regime has been hesitant to meet this demand and has not yet agreed to it.

Israeli military spokesman Ronen Manelis was severe in commenting on Friday’s developments, saying: “Iran is dragging the entire region towards an adventure, which it will pay for.”

This was interpreted as a sign that more strikes are in store.

This was also an invitation to Russia and the US to restrain Israel. Tel Aviv expects Moscow to intervene between it, Damascus and Tehran to put in place new rules of engagement. At the same time, it is trying to draw the attention of the American administration and see how it will comment on the escalation.

Will it follow the lead of the Obama administration and call on all sides for calm and restraint? Or will it take a more hardline stance in favor of Israel that will give it free reign to strike Iran and even become a partner in such as step?

In Israel, they believe that calm will be restored to this front after these mutual strikes and diplomacy will now take centerstage. There is also a conviction that the situation is headed towards the edge of the abyss and a slight nudge could send everything toppling over.

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In Shadow of War, Israelis to Decide if Hard-Right Turn Is Permanent

Rappelling workers install an election billboard featuring an image of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and reading in Hebrew "It's either the Right or Palestine," in Ramat Gan near Tel Aviv, Israel, 18 October 2026. (EPA)
Rappelling workers install an election billboard featuring an image of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and reading in Hebrew "It's either the Right or Palestine," in Ramat Gan near Tel Aviv, Israel, 18 October 2026. (EPA)
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In Shadow of War, Israelis to Decide if Hard-Right Turn Is Permanent

Rappelling workers install an election billboard featuring an image of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and reading in Hebrew "It's either the Right or Palestine," in Ramat Gan near Tel Aviv, Israel, 18 October 2026. (EPA)
Rappelling workers install an election billboard featuring an image of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and reading in Hebrew "It's either the Right or Palestine," in Ramat Gan near Tel Aviv, Israel, 18 October 2026. (EPA)

Three years after suffering their deadliest single attack, Israelis will deliver their verdict on veteran Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in an October 27 election that could decide if the country moves definitively into hard-right nationalism.

The trauma of October 7, 2023 remains raw across Israel. Faded stickers bearing the smiles of young people killed by Hamas cover station walls and lampposts, and at bustling restaurants, no one bats an eye as patrons dine with their assault rifles, now liberally allowed.

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister who polls show is in a tight race, is seeking a new mandate after leading a multi-front regional war in response to October 7, with Israel reducing Gaza to rubble, occupying part of Lebanon and, with US help, bombarding Iran.

The relentless Gaza campaign has brought pariah status to Israel in many once-friendly Western countries, and Netanyahu himself faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court.

Even if the public broadly has supported the war's aims, the effects at home have been much more divisive, including emboldening Netanyahu's far-right allies bent on reshaping Israel into a religious-nationalist Jewish state.

"I really think that these elections are about the future of the state in a literal sense," said Gideon Rahat, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Israel Democracy Institute.

Netanyahu's government has ramped up settlements in the occupied West Bank where settlers armed with the blessing of far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir have been attacking Palestinians on their lands with only occasional pushback from authorities.

"The state without a monopoly on the use of force is a failed state," Rahat said.

Netanyahu, who turns 77 on October 21, has served as prime minister on and off for more than 19 years.

The wily political operator returned to power in December 2022 bringing in once-shunned ultra-nationalists and quickly tried to rein in the judiciary, which is examining corruption charges that could land him in jail.

The proposed reforms brought out some of the largest protests in Israel's history in the months before the Hamas attack.

"Everyone in the country has a strong opinion about Netanyahu. People either hate him or adore him," said Alon Yakter, a political scientist at Tel Aviv University.

"When you want to see who people vote for, the first question you have to ask is their emotional feelings about Netanyahu."

- Anti-Netanyahu in style, not stance -

Seeking to unseat Netanyahu is an informal bloc of parties united mostly around their distaste for him.

Netanyahu's most formidable rival, according to polls, is former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, who is in many ways his antithesis -- a political novice who wants to unite centrists rather than rally a base, and a phlegmatic speaker with halting English and none of the American-raised Netanyahu's flair for blistering, headline-grabbing speeches.

Eisenkot, as well as other opposition leaders, have zeroed in on why Netanyahu failed to prevent October 7.

Netanyahu has been rocked by reports he ignored warnings. He vehemently denies the charges, blaming security chiefs who he said failed to wake him up that morning.

Netanyahu "may have his perfect English, but even with perfect English he got us October 7", Eisenkot, in Hebrew, told a security conference at Reichman University.

Eisenkot's son died in the Gaza war -- offering an unspoken contrast to Netanyahu's son Yair, a globe-trotting social media provocateur.

The working-class son of Moroccan Jewish immigrants, Eisenkot would be the first prime minister of Middle Eastern ancestry, a watershed in a country politically dominated since its founding by an elite of European descent.

Opposition leaders have not criticized Netanyahu's decision to wage war, likely a losing stance in a country where a recent survey found that only 21 percent of the population identifies as anywhere left of center.

Eisenkot, as military chief during the 2006 Lebanon war, promoted the Israeli doctrine of using massive force even against civilian infrastructure when in areas used by militants, such as Hezbollah.

The opposition has instead heavily focused on social issues including Netanyahu's tight alliance with ultra-Orthodox Jews, a fast-growing segment of the population due to high birth rates that has promoted religious priorities, such as keeping public transit closed on Saturdays.

Netanyahu, while personally secular, has allowed religious students to remain exempt from military service, a source of particular resentment when stretched reservists have served multiple tours.

Opposition figure Naftali Bennett, prime minister in a short-lived 2021-22 government, has vowed to end all exemptions to military service and said that social divisions were putting Israel on a "slow-motion suicide mission".

- Hardline appeal -

While the opposition attacks Netanyahu over October 7, for some Israelis, the aftermath of the attack shows the government has brought stability.

While Israelis have died in Iranian and Hezbollah retaliatory attacks, fire has stopped from Gaza, even as Israel keeps striking the territory and Hamas remains.

Israel's economy has boomed since October 7, with construction sites dotting the major cities and the stock market soaring, led by the technology and defense sectors.

Neriah Yarchi, 19, a barber from Bat Yam near Tel Aviv, came of political age after October 7. He said he would vote for far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who wants the "voluntary" removal of Gaza's two million Palestinians.

"If Gaza had been ours, they wouldn't have had a place to infiltrate from and there wouldn't have been a massacre," Yarchi said.

Netanyahu has sought to seize on his international notoriety, with his Likud party putting up posters of leaders including New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, an outspoken critic of Israeli policies, that read, "They want Netanyahu to lose. Don't let them win."

Netanyahu has also vowed loudly never to align with parties representing Arab Israelis, who make up around one-fifth of the population and who some expect to turn out in higher numbers after the intense anti-Arab stances of some of Netanyahu's ministers.

Arab lawmakers broke precedent to be kingmakers in the 2021-2022 government.

If the new election's results are as close as expected, it could take weeks or months to form a government. Eisenkot has said he would not ally with Arab parties or Netanyahu, but some critics do not believe he would refuse.

Uriel Reichman, a former lawmaker who founded the university bearing his name, told the conference addressed by Eisenkot that a Netanyahu triumph could permanently entrench Israel's right-wing turn.

He drew a parallel to countries where an elected populist packs the government with loyalists and transforms once-independent institutions.

"Experience shows that once such a system is put in place, it would be extremely difficult to dismantle it," he said.

Features

‘It’s Family’: Lebanese Villagers Dread Looming UN Peacekeeper Pullout

A worker arranges souvenirs made for personnel of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) at a factory showroom in Lebanon's southern border village of Ibl al-Saqi on October 13, 2026. (AFP)
A worker arranges souvenirs made for personnel of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) at a factory showroom in Lebanon's southern border village of Ibl al-Saqi on October 13, 2026. (AFP)
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‘It’s Family’: Lebanese Villagers Dread Looming UN Peacekeeper Pullout

A worker arranges souvenirs made for personnel of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) at a factory showroom in Lebanon's southern border village of Ibl al-Saqi on October 13, 2026. (AFP)
A worker arranges souvenirs made for personnel of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) at a factory showroom in Lebanon's southern border village of Ibl al-Saqi on October 13, 2026. (AFP)

From his shop in south Lebanon near the Israeli border, Mark Diab says life in his village will be turned upside down when a decades-long United Nations peacekeeping force pulls out next year.

"UNIFIL isn't just business, to us it's family," said Diab, 59, whose sister is among residents of Ibl al-Saqi who have married peacekeepers from the UN Interim Force in Lebanon over the years. She now lives in Spain.

"We're basically open because of the UN. We started when I was young," Diab said from his shop, just down the road from a UNIFIL base, selling clothes.

The force's withdrawal will hurt the local economy and "will impact our relationships... and we'll lose security and stability," he said, as the sound of an explosion rang out in the distance.

"I'm very sad they're leaving... We've spent a lifetime with them."

UNIFIL has served as a buffer since Israel first invaded Lebanon in 1978.

It has become part of the fabric of south Lebanese villages like Ibl al-Saqi after decades spent monitoring border hostilities and supporting local communities, including with humanitarian assistance.

But after pressure from Washington, the UN Security Council last year voted to end the force's mandate on December 31, 2026.

In a narrow garden in Ibl al-Saqi called Norway Square, tattered Norwegian and Lebanese flags flew near plaques paying tribute to peacekeepers from the Scandinavian country whose arrival decades ago forged ties that run deep.

A street sign points to a town in Norway about 5,200 kilometers (more than 3,200 miles) away.

Nearby, an Indian flag flew at Mahatma Gandhi Park close to a statue, posters and plaques set up by Indian peacekeepers.

An armored vehicle of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) moves along a road in Lebanon's southern border village of Ibl al-Saqi on October 13, 2026. (AFP)

- 'Positive mark' -

Ibl al-Saqi is located just outside an Israeli-declared "security zone" which runs around 10 kilometers deep in Lebanese territory along the border. It was established after the latest war between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah group erupted this year.

Israeli troops operate nearby, and locals advised AFP journalists to avoid southern parts of the otherwise quiet, peaceful village, nestled among hills covered in olive groves.

From his municipal office near framed UNIFIL pictures and paraphernalia, mayor George Rahhal said the peacekeepers had brought stability and reassurance to villagers over years of conflict and uncertainty.

"They've left a positive mark on everybody's hearts, firstly through security, then the economy, healthcare, supporting schools, the sick," said Rahhal, who like others in the village also has Norwegian citizenship and speaks the language.

"At some point the UN has to leave... but not in these circumstances."

Lebanon has called for UNIFIL's mandate to be extended, fearing a security vacuum at a time when hostilities prevent the Lebanese army, whose resources are limited, from deploying across the country's south.

Rahhal said many Ibl al-Saqi residents were UNIFIL employees or contractors.

Almost "the entire community will be impacted" economically by the withdrawal, directly or indirectly, he said.

"We can live after the international force (leaves), but how and where and who will be responsible for us?"

UNIFIL now counts about 7,500 personnel from nearly 50 countries.

Spokesperson Kandice Ardiel told AFP it also "has around 400 national staff" and works with numerous local companies providing contracted services.

A shepherd tends to a flock near the base of the Spanish contingent of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), in Lebanon's southern border village of Ibl al-Saqi on October 13, 2026. (AFP)

- 'Stayed in our village' -

Peacekeepers are stationed in many Israeli-occupied areas now off-limits to most Lebanese after the most recent war. Many border villages have seen heavy destruction.

More than 4,300 people have been killed in Lebanon since March, including seven peacekeepers caught in the crossfire.

Israel still carries out strikes and demolitions despite a lull in hostilities since late June.

Andrea Tenenti, who served as UNIFIL spokesperson for almost 20 years, told AFP that the force's presence "was not simply about maintaining peace and security".

UNIFIL "has long been the second largest employer and economic contributor in southern Lebanon, after the Lebanese state", he said.

"Its economic footprint, however, extended far beyond its direct workforce," he added, with associated activities "supporting a much wider network of businesses and livelihoods".

Its withdrawal "risks creating a significant vacuum... at a particularly critical time".

At a workshop in Ibl al-Saqi, laborers supervised clattering embroidery machines sewing customized items including banners and tags for peacekeepers stationed nearby.

Shelves were packed with colorful souvenirs and keepsakes for UNIFIL personnel -- the business's main market after Lebanon's economy collapsed in 2019.

Co-owner Khaled Nahra, 48, said the workshop had been running for some 25 years and had around a dozen employees, but would be forced to close when UNIFIL leaves.

"We've stayed in our village... this was the best thing about working with the UN," he said.

"There are people who've been working here for 15... 20 years. They're like me. They don't know what to do."

Features

Policing of France's School Protests Clouds Macron's Final Months and Sparks Uproar

France's President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech during the "Bpifrance Inno Generation (BIG)" event, in Paris, France, October 8, 2026. Julien De Rosa/Pool via REUTERS
France's President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech during the "Bpifrance Inno Generation (BIG)" event, in Paris, France, October 8, 2026. Julien De Rosa/Pool via REUTERS
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Policing of France's School Protests Clouds Macron's Final Months and Sparks Uproar

France's President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech during the "Bpifrance Inno Generation (BIG)" event, in Paris, France, October 8, 2026. Julien De Rosa/Pool via REUTERS
France's President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech during the "Bpifrance Inno Generation (BIG)" event, in Paris, France, October 8, 2026. Julien De Rosa/Pool via REUTERS

On one side, legions of determined teenagers protesting for their future by blockading schools and taking part in marches that have sometimes spiraled into violence.

On the other, one of the largest internal security forces in Europe, deployed by the government of an unpopular and outgoing president, The Associated Press said.

The result, playing out almost daily outside high schools and on the streets of France, is a nationwide storm of unrest. The mayhem of recent weeks — with mass arrests and hundreds of injured — has sparked an uproar in a country steeped in a centuries-old culture of protest. Even some police have turned on the government's handling of the demonstrations.

Discontent shrouds Macron's final months

For President Emmanuel Macron, who leaves office in May, it’s hardly the dream ending to his decade in power. He has faced a succession of protest movements that sapped his popularity and fueled broad criticism of how his ministers use police against demonstrators.

With the high schoolers, the outcry has grown particularly loud. That's partly because the vast majority of the 8,000 people arrested in recent weeks are under 18 and because police riot-control weapons are blamed for life-changing injuries suffered by some young teens.

The protesters' push for better-resourced schools, particularly in poorer Paris suburbs and other cities and towns, also has a sympathetic audience as France hurts from record poverty and record public debt.

But police complain that they're facing violent rioters who are latching onto the protests and using the crowds as cover to attack officers, pelting them with rocks, fireworks and other projectiles and wreaking havoc with fires, vandalism and other destruction. By the government's count, more than 900 officers and more than 150 teachers and other school staffers have been injured. More demonstrations, by a variety of groups with broader complaints beyond schools, are planned Saturday.

French history partly explains why protests are veering into confrontations between riot police and some demonstrators who come ready to fight in masks and black clothes, says Walid Hrar, a police officer and union representative in the northern suburbs of Paris.

“This is the country of the French Revolution. Everyone boasts about it, in fact. Some political parties don’t hesitate to say that we need to disobey the law. That’s what Robespierre and other revolutionaries taught us in 1789,” he said.

“France always tends to react rather than anticipate,” he added. "In other words, we’re always going to extremes.”

Attention focusing on police weaponry

The police have drawn sharp scrutiny for their efforts to control crowds using a variety of so-called non-lethal weaponry, particularly grenades and other projectiles, but also tear gas, water cannons and riot shields equipped with powerful strobe lights.

"We’re sending poorly equipped, untrained public security police officers to violent demonstrations who are likely to become agitated very quickly out of anger and fear,” said Jean-Marie Godard, an author who specializes in French policing.

Hrar said some of his police colleagues “aren’t specialized in crowd control and aren’t equipped for it. We send them in because we need the manpower, so we have officers wearing uniforms that aren’t flame-resistant. And if you’re hit by a firework mortar and your uniform isn’t flame-resistant, you can catch fire. We also have officers with worn-out helmets. We have shields that aren’t suitable."

He said officers who haven't been given permission to use riot-control projectiles and grenades sometimes struggle to keep attackers at a safe distance.

“So unfortunately we make do,” he said. “You’ll inevitably end up in direct physical confrontation. When that happens, there are injuries on both sides.”

His Alliance police union announced this week that it is filing a legal complaint against the state, accusing it of endangering lives. It alleged that officers are being issued with vague and contradictory orders, leaving them “isolated, betrayed, abandoned, exposed to violence."

Probes of alleged misconduct grow French Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said this week that security forces have used crowd-control weapons at least 18,000 times during the protests — mostly smoke and tear gas but also projectiles and grenades.

They include a deafening launcher-fired grenade that Nunez said was used “about 40 times” before he suspended its deployment against high schoolers, after a 15-year-old lost a hand.

“All this equipment, all these forces, all these intermediate weapons, are used whenever necessary, with proportionality, to mark an escalation of the response, to keep people at a distance or sometimes to put them out of action,” he said.

The minister said rules governing the use of riot-control projectiles are “very clear, very strict.”

“We avoid everything above the neck,” he said.

Still, an officer suspected of firing a round that partially blinded a 16-year-old was this week charged with aggravated violence.

That case is among a growing number of investigations — totaling 36 as of Tuesday — into alleged police misconduct.

Four involve “mutilating injuries,” another six involve “significant injuries” and others are for “blows, insults and suspected sexual assaults” and include the case of an officer accused of attempting to drown a protester, Nunez said.

Expert says different groups get different policing France has more than 250,000 police and gendarmes.

Sebastian Roché, a policing specialist at France's National Center for Scientific Research, said their use can depend on the political needs of the government, which commands them. Officers have been less forgiving with the teenagers than they previously were with farmers, a powerful lobby in France, who doused government buildings with manure, blocked roads and set fires.

“It’s the political definition of the movement that defines the police response,” Roché said.

Public perceptions of the police also change and are influenced by what people see on social media, said Hrar, who noted that officers were applauded for their bravery during terror attacks in 2015.

"When you bombard people every single day with images of police intervening with batons, shields and tear gas, you’re inevitably going to create a negative impression.”