عربي English Türkçe اردو فارسى
Logo
Latest News
Arab World

Will Lebanon be Spared Israeli-Iranian Confrontation?

A UN peacekeeper stands at a lookout point in Adaisseh village near the Lebanese-Israeli border, southern Lebanon, December 21, 2015 (AFP 2018 / Karamallah Daher)
A UN peacekeeper stands at a lookout point in Adaisseh village near the Lebanese-Israeli border, southern Lebanon, December 21, 2015 (AFP 2018 / Karamallah Daher)
TT
TT

Will Lebanon be Spared Israeli-Iranian Confrontation?

A UN peacekeeper stands at a lookout point in Adaisseh village near the Lebanese-Israeli border, southern Lebanon, December 21, 2015 (AFP 2018 / Karamallah Daher)
A UN peacekeeper stands at a lookout point in Adaisseh village near the Lebanese-Israeli border, southern Lebanon, December 21, 2015 (AFP 2018 / Karamallah Daher)

Lebanon is awaiting the repercussions of a possible confrontation between Iran and Israel, in the wake of the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and the recent Israeli escalation in Syria.

The director of the Middle East Institute for Strategic Affairs, Dr. Sami Nader, said that dissociating Lebanon in any war could be impossible.

“The results of the elections devoted the influence of Hezbollah. The war can naturally extend to Lebanon, as the party now links the two Lebanese and Syrian fronts together and has relations with Iran,” Nader told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He warned that the whole country would pay the price of any war between Israel and Iran on Syrian territories.

“Given that the confrontation will be comprehensive, Lebanon will be part of the battle, in view of the party’s nature and its Lebanese base,” Nader explained.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the repercussions of a comprehensive battle on Lebanon would be more extreme than in the 2006 war, stressing that the risks of a possible strike are economic, because the Lebanese economy has reached a delicate stage, which Israel is aware of. He noted that Israel will be able to use this weakness to exert pressure on Lebanon, which will in turn pressure Hezbollah.

“The European safety net that the Europeans are trying to find for Lebanon has its limits,” Nader said.

“They cannot provide a lot of protection measures if the confrontation is comprehensive,” he added, pointing out that they were “trapped within the European troops operating within the Peacekeeping forces in southern Lebanon [UNIFIL].”

The Lebanese are betting on a European role to spare the country a direct conflict with Israel, knowing that Rome hosted a conference last March to empowering the Lebanese Army and security forces and called for strengthening the presence of the Lebanese Army along the southern border.

International Law Professor at Paris-Sud University, Dr. Khattar Abou Diab, said that the possibility to dissociate Lebanon from any direct confrontation “is not known at present”, noting that the Europeans “will make an effort to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif, this week, as well as with French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin to prevent any possible confrontation.”

On his assessment of a confrontation in Syria, Abu Diab said that it will depend on the possibility of a compromise between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Putin, based on the de-escalation agreement reached in July 2017, and the Iranian presence in Syria.

Lebanese researcher in strategic affairs, Ali Shehab, expressed his belief that “the geography of the conflict is currently concentrated in Syria, and there is no interest or need of any of the parties to expand its scope.”

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Shehab said: “The Israeli internal front is not ready yet for a war at every development or Israeli raid on Syrian territory.”

Most Viewed

 
 
Arab World

Shaibani: Syrian-Russian Ties Entering New Phase

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani attend a meeting in Moscow, Russia December 24, 2025. (Russian Foreign Ministry/Handout via Reuters)
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani attend a meeting in Moscow, Russia December 24, 2025. (Russian Foreign Ministry/Handout via Reuters)
TT
TT

Shaibani: Syrian-Russian Ties Entering New Phase

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani attend a meeting in Moscow, Russia December 24, 2025. (Russian Foreign Ministry/Handout via Reuters)
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani attend a meeting in Moscow, Russia December 24, 2025. (Russian Foreign Ministry/Handout via Reuters)

Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani stressed on Wednesday that relations between Damascus and Moscow were entering a new phase based on mutual respect.

He met in Moscow with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, saying: “We aspire to establish balanced relations with everyone.”

“We are working on attracting investments to Syria to improve the economy,” he added, remarking: “We are forging ahead in rebuilding the country.”

For his part, Lavrov said the meeting tackled various issues, underlining the importance of maintaining Syria’s territorial integrity and bolstering bilateral ties between Damascus and Moscow.

On Tuesday, Shaibani and Defense Minister Major General Murhaf Abu Qasra met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss political, military, and economic issues of mutual interest, with particular emphasis on strategic cooperation in the defense industry sector, reported Syria’s state news agency SANA.

They reviewed ways to advance military and technical partnership in a manner that strengthens the defensive capabilities of the Syrian army and keeps pace with modern developments in military industries.

Discussions focused on upgrading military equipment, transferring technical expertise and know-how, and expanding cooperation in research and development to boost Syria’s national defense system and support security and stability in Syria and the region.

On the political front, the two sides exchanged views on regional and international developments, underscoring the importance of continued political and diplomatic coordination between Damascus and Moscow in international forums.

They stressed the need to respect international law, rejecting all forms of external interference in the internal affairs of states.

Economically, the meeting addressed prospects for expanding economic and trade cooperation, including support for reconstruction projects, development of infrastructure sectors, and encouragement of investment in Syria.

The talks also covered boosting trade exchange and facilitating partnerships in ways that positively impact the Syrian economy and contribute to improving living conditions.

Putin underscored Russia’s steadfast support for Syria, stressing the importance of preserving Syria’s unity, territorial integrity, and full sovereignty, and rejecting “any projects aimed at partitioning the country or undermining its independent national decision”.

He also renewed Moscow’s condemnation of repeated Israeli violations of Syrian territory, describing them as “a direct threat to regional security and stability”.

Arab World

Muscat Detainee Swap Deal Tests Houthi Credibility

Prisoner swap success hinges on Houthi commitment, seriousness (Gov’t Media)
Prisoner swap success hinges on Houthi commitment, seriousness (Gov’t Media)
TT
TT

Muscat Detainee Swap Deal Tests Houthi Credibility

Prisoner swap success hinges on Houthi commitment, seriousness (Gov’t Media)
Prisoner swap success hinges on Houthi commitment, seriousness (Gov’t Media)

The agreement reached by the Yemeni government in Muscat with the Houthis to exchange about 2,900 prisoners and detainees from both sides marks a new test of the group’s credibility in closing one of the conflict’s most complex humanitarian files after years of delays and failure.

Despite a broad local and international welcome for the deal, doubts still surround its implementation mechanisms, given the absence of final lists and continuing ambiguity over the fate of Mohammed Qahtan, a senior figure in the Islah party who has been abducted for nearly a decade.

According to sources close to the talks, the agreement, sponsored by the office of the United Nations' special envoy for Yemen and supported by the International Committee of the Red Cross, remains at this stage only a preliminary understanding, expected to be implemented within a month.

Sources familiar with the negotiations said the first clause of the agreement is limited to the release of prisoners affiliated with the Saudi-led coalition supporting Yemen’s internationally recognized government, in addition to Mohammed Qahtan. Other details of the deal, including the names of those to be included, remain subject to further bargaining and negotiations between the parties and the mediators.

The same sources stated that what has been achieved so far does not amount to a final settlement, noting that previous negotiation rounds have repeatedly been tied to complex Houthi demands. These have included the insertion of names of fighters missing on the front lines, whom the group claims are held by the government without providing evidence, as well as its repeated refusal to include abducted civilians on the grounds that they are “under judicial process.”

Circles close to the negotiations said appointing Yahya al-Razami, the Houthis’ representative on the military committee, to lead the group’s negotiating team instead of Abdul Qader al-Murtada helped create an atmosphere conducive to reaching the preliminary agreement.

They said al-Murtada, who has been accused of involvement in the torture of some detainees, was a key reason behind the failure of several previous negotiation rounds because of his hardline stance and insistence on what were described as unrealistic conditions.

The same sources added that al-Razami’s presence at the head of the Houthis’ team facilitated discussions and paved the way for agreement on the principle of a comprehensive exchange of prisoners and detainees from both sides, although this remains conditional on the Houthis’ commitment to their pledges and the sincerity of their intentions in providing accurate and reliable information about detainees.

In contrast, the Yemeni government, according to the same assessments, has voiced serious concerns that the Houthis may seek to strip the agreement of its humanitarian substance through stalling tactics or by reintroducing the same conditions that derailed previous attempts.

These indications underline that the success of the deal hinges on the Houthis’ seriousness in honoring their commitments and fully disclosing the fate of all abductees, foremost among them Mohammed Qahtan.

The fate of Mohammed Qahtan remains one of the primary obstacles to implementing the agreement. Although his name was included in the first phase of the deal, his fate has been unknown since his arrest in 2015 at a security checkpoint near the entrance to the city of Ibb. To date, the Houthis have not disclosed whether he is still alive.

According to the sources, this ambiguity has undermined previous understandings and led to the collapse of earlier negotiation rounds, after the Houthis demanded 30 prisoners if Qahtan was alive, or 30 bodies if his death was confirmed.

Officials involved in the file said such behavior raises serious doubts about his fate after more than 10 years and eight months of enforced disappearance, weakening the prospects for building the trust needed to advance the remaining stages of the exchange agreement.

The sources emphasized that the success of any prisoner exchange cannot be achieved without addressing the Qahtan case with clarity and transparency, as it represents both a humanitarian and a political issue, and a genuine test of the Houthis’ commitment to international humanitarian law.

Under the announced understandings, the deal is to be implemented in three main phases. The first phase includes the release of prisoners affiliated with the coalition supporting the Yemeni government, in addition to Mohammed Qahtan. In the second phase, which begins approximately a week later, a joint committee will be formed to conduct field visits to detention sites and document the names of all detainees related to the conflict.

The verified lists will then be submitted to the office of the UN special envoy for Yemen and the International Committee of the Red Cross for official approval and the launch of the exchange process. The third phase will be dedicated to the remains file, covering the exchange of bodies of those killed and the search for the remains of the missing in battle areas, with the aim of closing this painful chapter.

The sources stated that it was agreed upon to include a total number of individuals in the exchange from both sides, with names to be finalized within a month, as well as the recovery of all bodies from various fronts and their handover through the International Committee of the Red Cross. It was also agreed to form committees to visit prisons after the exchange and identify any remaining prisoners, in preparation for their release.

The greatest burden, the sources said, will fall on international mediators, particularly the office of the UN special envoy and the International Committee of the Red Cross, to ensure the agreement is implemented, prevent any party from circumventing it, and establish a clear timeline starting with gathering prisoners and abductees at designated points, matching lists, and setting a start date for the exchange operation.

Arab World

Brother Details to Asharq Al-Awsat Luring, Disappearance of Lebanese Retired Officer

Abdul Salam Shukr speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat from Nabi Sheet. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Abdul Salam Shukr speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat from Nabi Sheet. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
TT
TT

Brother Details to Asharq Al-Awsat Luring, Disappearance of Lebanese Retired Officer

Abdul Salam Shukr speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat from Nabi Sheet. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Abdul Salam Shukr speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat from Nabi Sheet. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Shock still grips the family of retired Lebanese General Security captain Ahmed Shukr, who was abducted days ago, as Lebanese security and judicial assessments increasingly point to Israeli intelligence as being behind his disappearance, over suspected links to the 1986 vanishing of Israeli airman Ron Arad in southern Lebanon.

His brother, Abdul Salam Shukr, told Asharq Al-Awsat the story began when a Lebanese expatriate living in Kinshasa, identified as A.M., contacted Ahmed and asked to rent his apartment in the Choueifat area, south of Beirut.

The two agreed months ago, and the man paid $500 in rent.

The expatriate made repeated visits to Lebanon and met Shukr at his home during one of them. He later contacted the retired officer to say that a wealthy African investor named Salim Kassab, later found to be a fake name, was interested in purchasing a plot of land in the eastern city of Zahle and needed his assistance.

Abdul Salam said the expatriate inspected the land, then called two weeks after leaving Lebanon to say the investor had agreed to buy it and would visit the country. He asked Ahmed to meet him at the site at 4:30 p.m. on the day of the abduction.

He said the expatriate insisted on the timing because it suited the buyer, despite Ahmed’s objections that darkness would have fallen by then, and the land’s features would not be visible. The expatriate later apologized for not attending, claiming he had broken his foot, and said the investor would visit the site alone with Ahmed.

At the time of the meeting, Ahmed disappeared.

“We know nothing about him except what we have heard through security and judicial leaks,” Abdul Salam said. He added that the abductors had rented a house in Zahle and erased all traces from it after kidnapping Ahmed.

Surveillance cameras tracked the vehicle as it headed toward the town of Souireh in the western Bekaa, where the trail then vanished. Souireh was previously used as a smuggling route from southwestern Damascus into Lebanon.

Loyalty to the state

“My brother served 40 years in the military establishment. His loyalty was only to the state and its institutions. He never belonged to any party,” Abdul Salam said. “We are a family that does not engage in politics.”

Ahmed was lured last week in a carefully planned operation that began in his hometown of Nabi Sheet in the northern Bekaa, before he went missing at a point very close to the city of Zahle.

Family members and residents have been gathering at the home of Nabi Sheet’s mukhtar, Abbas Shukr, to voice their protest and condemnation of the abduction.

The family said Ahmed Shukr retired nine years ago after serving for four decades in the General Security, during which he held several posts, including the Masnaa border crossing with Syria and the Qaa crossing in northeastern Lebanon.

“My brother joined the military in 1979, which means he was an ‘officer of the state’ when Arad disappeared in 1986,” Abdul Salam told Asharq Awsat. “An officer of the state does not belong to parties.”

He rejected attempts to link the family by kinship to Fuad Shukr, a Hezbollah leader killed by Israel in July 2024 in Beirut’s southern suburbs, saying no one in the town even knew him.

“He left the town in the early 1980s and never returned. He was distant even from his relatives,” he said, adding that since retiring, his brother “never left the Bekaa. He stayed at home and played cards with friends at night.”

The family home remains in a state of disbelief, a scene that has persisted since his disappearance last week. The case only began to move officially after Vice President of the Supreme Islamic Shiite Council Sheikh Ali al Khatib contacted Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Interior Minister Ahmed al-Hajjar, according to Abdul Salam.

He said Aoun pledged to instruct security and judicial authorities to expand the investigation and uncover the circumstances surrounding the incident. Officials from the Amal Movement were also in constant contact with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is head of the movement, to follow up on the case.

Mystery remains

“We demand that the judiciary and security agencies confirm or deny the leak about an alleged link to Ron Arad’s disappearance,” Abdul Salam said.

“That leak does not concern us. What matters is what the security agencies say, including General Security, where Ahmed served, and the Information Branch of the Internal Security Forces, which is leading the investigation.”

He said the key to the mystery lies with A.M., a native of the southern town of Qana who lives in Kinshasa and has been evading the family’s calls.

“The Lebanese state must ask Interpol to arrest him and bring him to Lebanon for questioning,” he urged, adding that the man no longer answers his phone and that all available information about him, including video clips, is now in the hands of security agencies.

Abdul Salam said the family believes the expatriate coordinated the plot with Israel’s Mossad, guiding them to this point and enabling an operation carried out with precision and professionalism.

He said Lebanese security agencies told the family the abductors left no fingerprints, neither at the Zahle property nor at the Choueifat apartment, and that no evidence has been found. The kidnappers’ vehicle also remains unidentified.