OPEC Plus Looks into 1.5 bpd Boost in Oil Production

People walk past the OPEC logo in front of its headquarters in Vienna. (Reuters)
People walk past the OPEC logo in front of its headquarters in Vienna. (Reuters)
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OPEC Plus Looks into 1.5 bpd Boost in Oil Production

People walk past the OPEC logo in front of its headquarters in Vienna. (Reuters)
People walk past the OPEC logo in front of its headquarters in Vienna. (Reuters)

The OPEC and non-OPEC countries in a global oil output deal will consider increasing output by 1.5 million per day in the third quarter only, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Saturday, the TASS news agency reported.

Russia and Saudi Arabia have agreed to extend cooperation indefinitely and will discuss the agreement in Vienna next week, Novak said.

He stated that the gradual increase is possible from July 1, but the countries who joined the global oil production cut deal are yet to discuss all the terms. The OPEC and non-OPEC countries are also meeting next week in Vienna.

Oil prices fell more than $2 after two of the world's biggest oil producers indicated they could increase oil output at the OPEC meeting next week, while US exports are threatened by Chinese customs duties on crude and refined products.

Investors are tense ahead of the Vienna meeting. Saudi Arabia and Russia have already increased their production of crude slightly.

Brent crude ended the week at $2.50, or 3.29 percent, at $73.44 per barrel.

US WTI crude fell 1.83 dollars, or 2.74 percent, closing at $65.06 a barrel.

After closing the official trading session for the oil market, China announced the imposition of retaliatory tariffs on US products worth 50 billion dollars, in response to a series of customs announced by US President Donald Trump.

Over the past six months, the US has exported an average of 363,000 barrels per day of crude oil to China which is the largest buyer of US crude along with Canada.

On the other hand, the number of active oil rigs in the US rose for a fourth week in a row, despite a 9 percent fall in crude prices over the past month. Despite this decline, producers still expect their oil prices in 2018 to be higher than in 2017.



Türkiye Inflation Expected to Fall in September for First Time Since 2021

People shop at a popular market in Istanbul. (Local media)
People shop at a popular market in Istanbul. (Local media)
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Türkiye Inflation Expected to Fall in September for First Time Since 2021

People shop at a popular market in Istanbul. (Local media)
People shop at a popular market in Istanbul. (Local media)

Annual inflation in Türkiye is expected to fall, forecasts showed, shortly before the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) will reveal inflation figures on Thursday.

Inflation in Istanbul, one of the country’s largest cities and vital economic centers, showed a year-on-year decline while continuing to rise on a monthly basis.

A Reuters poll showed on Monday that Türkiye’s annual inflation is expected to continue its decline in September and fall below the central bank's policy rate (50%) for the first time since 2021.

The median estimate of 19 economists showed annual inflation of 48.3% in September, down from 51.97% in August.

Forecasts ranged from 47.8% to 49.1%. Month-on-month, inflation is seen rising to 2.2%, with forecasts ranging between 2% and 2.8%.

Monthly inflation was high in January and February, largely due to a big minimum wage hike and new-year price updates, before slowing to some 3.2% in March and April. After dipping in June, inflation rose to 3.23% in July on the back of mid-year price adjustments.

Monthly inflation was 2.47% in August on the back of a natural gas price hike for residential users, the first such price adjustment in almost two years.

Türkiye's annual consumer inflation rate slowed to 71.60% in June. It fell to 51.97% in August, decelerating from 61.78% in July.

At the same time, inflation in Istanbul rose by 3.9% on a monthly basis last September, while annual inflation fell to 59.18%.

The Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) said on Tuesday that the Cost of Living Index for wage earners in Istanbul, which reflects retail price movements, increased by 3.90% compared to the previous month, while the Wholesale Price Index, which tracks wholesale price movements, rose by 4.67%.

It said that compared to September of the previous year, retail prices increased by 59.18%, while wholesale prices rose by 47.89%.

A Türkiye Household Inflation Expectations Survey (TEBA), prepared by the Koç University in collaboration with the Konda Research and Consulting Company, revealed that annual inflation is expected to reach 94% by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank published on Tuesday its forecasts for Türkiye’s inflation, economic growth, interests rates and exchange rate.

The report, authored by Yigit Onay, highlighted declining inflation and improvements in the current account deficit as key developments for the upcoming year.

The bank expects inflation to drop further to around 42% by the end of 2024, although rigid prices in the services sector could hinder a faster decline. Inflation is projected to fall to 23% in 2025.

A combination of lower energy bills and reduced gold demand is expected to shrink the deficit to 1.6% of GDP in 2024. By the end of this year, Deutsche Bank estimates the deficit will narrow to $20 billion.

The budget deficit, which stood at 5.2% of GDP in 2023, is expected to shrink to 5% next year, it says.