Algeria’s 2019 Presidential Elections Clouded by Bouteflika’s Unclear Prospects

Algeiran President Abdelaziz Bouteflika during a swearing-in ceremony in Algiers April 28, 2014. REUTERS/Ramzi Boudina/File Photo
Algeiran President Abdelaziz Bouteflika during a swearing-in ceremony in Algiers April 28, 2014. REUTERS/Ramzi Boudina/File Photo
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Algeria’s 2019 Presidential Elections Clouded by Bouteflika’s Unclear Prospects

Algeiran President Abdelaziz Bouteflika during a swearing-in ceremony in Algiers April 28, 2014. REUTERS/Ramzi Boudina/File Photo
Algeiran President Abdelaziz Bouteflika during a swearing-in ceremony in Algiers April 28, 2014. REUTERS/Ramzi Boudina/File Photo

Algeria’s media and the country’s political sphere, whether pro-government or opposition, have lately been focused on the upcoming 2019 presidential elections and the current President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's future in power.

Bouteflika stepping down from rule is a bet placed on his health condition taking an irretraceable course—the Tunisian president has a history of brain strokes that at times cost him control over most of his senses and placed him on a wheelchair.

Since then, the Algerian president has not been directly involved in public engagements and has missed his very own presidential campaign in 2014. Former Prime Minister Abdelmalek Salal took charge as Bouteflika’s campaign director.

It is worth noting that when performing the national oath, Bouteflika failed to read a full paragraph, leaving the impression that he would have great difficulty in fulfilling responsibilities during his fourth mandate.

And since his re-election Bouteflika, 80, has appeared rarely in public and usually only in state news images with visiting dignitaries, at times raising serious doubts on whether he will be able to finish his term.

But despite Bouteflika's shortcoming, four major parties in the “pro-government bloc” insist that the current president serves best the natural course of the country.

They argue that no one can lead Algeria in its coming stage but Bouteflika. The bloc comprises parties like National Liberation Front, headed by Bouteflika himself and the National Rally for Democracy, led by Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia.

“I do not think the president will disappoint citizens who called on him to end the nationwide construction, a process which he started in 1999. He will once again come through for Algeria,” National Liberation Front FLN secretary-general Djamel Ould Abbes told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Taking into consideration Bouteflika suffering painful health conditions, loyalists perceive his stay in power as a sacrifice on his behalf for both the sake of the country and settling “difficult security and economic conditions facing Algeria.”

“You asked me to carry on with the march even though you noticed that I was no longer able to lead, and I decided to bow before your wishes and come forth for Algeria, the country for which I sacrificed my youth,” Bouteflika had said in his speech on the eve of 2014 presidential elections.

If Bouteflika does not opt for a fifth stay in office, Algerian third-party observers expect that the same bloc would remain in power. The next coming president will likely be chosen from a score of candidates running for the election, such as PM Ahmed Ouyahia, former PM Abdelmalek Sellal and former Energy Minister Chakib Khelil.

Rumors spun around the Vice Minister of Defense Ahmed Gaid Salah becoming the head the Algerian government.

Salah has purportedly acknowledged a desire to replace Bouteflika.

He told his close associates, “It was done by Marshal Abdul Fattah al-Sisi in Egypt, why not me ?!"



Iraq Frustrated by Iran’s Reluctance to Rein in Militias

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)
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Iraq Frustrated by Iran’s Reluctance to Rein in Militias

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)

A senior government official said Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has warned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the “risks to Iraq” from the growing conflict between Israel and Iran.

The official added that Iran is using “deception” when asked to distance its allied militias from the war.

Political and government figures are increasingly worried that Iraq could be hit, after two Israeli soldiers were killed in a drone strike on the Golan Heights early Friday.

Speaking anonymously to Asharq Al-Awsat, the official said al-Sudani is taking steps to keep Iraq out of the conflict.

These efforts include ramping up “political mediation” to persuade militias not to involve Iraq. The prime minister “informed Coordination Framework leaders of the risks” and urged them to “act quickly.”

The official also warned that an attack is still possible, saying intelligence shows the Iraqi militias launched the strike from outside Iraq, using weapons that came from Iraqi territory.

Al-Sudani’s Mediation Efforts

The Iraqi premier has chosen mediators, approved by Iran, to negotiate with militias about the conflict and conditions for de-escalation. These three individuals have previously acted as mediators in past crises.

Last week, Asharq Al-Awsat reported that al-Sudani asked three key Shiite figures to intervene and prevent militias from getting involved in the war between Hezbollah and Israel, after reports surfaced that Israel had identified 35 Iraqi targets.

Sources confirmed that Ammar al-Hakim is among the mediators, along with two other influential Shiite leaders whose names haven’t been disclosed.

However, two Iraqi militias—likely the al-Nujaba Movement led by Akram al-Kaabi and Kataib Hezbollah led by Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi—have refused to cooperate and continue launching rocket attacks on Israel.

The Iraqi official admitted that some militias are “stubborn,” but stressed that al-Sudani knows Iraq is “at the center of the storm.”

He reportedly told leaders of the Coordination Framework, “Iraq cannot avoid a military strike if it happens, so we must stay out of the war to protect the country.”

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in a Friday sermon, stated that “Iran’s allies in the region won’t back down,” increasing concerns that Iraqi militias tied to Iran will continue attacking Israel.

Iraqi sources also reported that the Coordination Framework has reviewed an “intelligence report” on dozens of Iraqi targets that Israel might strike or assassinate.

Government Efforts to Prevent Escalation

Al-Sudani has blocked the flow of Iraqi funds into conflict zones, unlike previous leaders, according to the official.

He has worked closely with the US and its Treasury Department to strictly monitor financial movements, often insisting that Iran uses official channels to claim its dues from Iraq.

The official also said global auditing firms are now helping Iraq’s central bank oversee financial transactions, shutting down all previous routes for illicit money flows.

Since the Gaza war began on October 7, 2023, the US told Iraq it pressured Israel not to strike Iraq, as long as Iraq stays out of the conflict, the official added.

The US doesn’t oppose Iraq’s stance of condemning Israel, supporting Lebanon and Palestine, and sending aid.

But it “won’t accept any financial or military support to militias.”

Regarding Iran’s role, the official said Tehran claims militias act independently, dodging responsibility for reining them in.