Q&A: Sudanese Face Uphill Climb in Unfinished Revolution

Protesters in Khartoum, Sudan. (AFP)
Protesters in Khartoum, Sudan. (AFP)
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Q&A: Sudanese Face Uphill Climb in Unfinished Revolution

Protesters in Khartoum, Sudan. (AFP)
Protesters in Khartoum, Sudan. (AFP)

The Sudanese Professionals Association, which led months of protests that eventually forced one of Africa's longest-ruling leaders from power, says its revolution is far from over.

The umbrella group of unions succeeded where war and sanctions failed — in ending President Omar al-Bashir's three-decade rule. This week the protesters scored another victory by forcing three figures seen as too close to the ousted regime to resign from the military council that assumed power after overthrowing al-Bashir on April 11.

The SPA says protesters will remain in the streets until the military hands power to a transitional civilian government. But as the standoff continues, it risks being drawn into the maelstrom of Sudanese politics, where politicians have bickered in the capital as rebellions have raged in the far-flung provinces of one of Africa's biggest and most chaotic countries.

The Associated Press takes a look at the SPA and the challenges it faces:

Who are the protesters and what do they want?
Under Bashir, the state controlled all professional associations, leading doctors, lawyers, engineers, teachers and others to form independent unions. Three years ago, they joined together and formed the SPA.

In December, as Sudan grappled with rising prices and shortages, the SPA planned a march to the capital, Khartoum, to demand wage increases. But when separate demonstrations over rising bread prices erupted in Atbara, a railway hub north of Khartoum, the SPA broadened its demands to the overthrow of the government, invoking slogans from the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011.

The group's decentralized leadership allowed it to keep organizing, even after the arrest of several of its leaders. Tech-savvy young people swelled its ranks, using social media to organize rallies and document the government's crackdown, said the AP.

The group established a mass sit-in outside the military headquarters in the capital on April 6. Five days later, the military removed Bashir from office, and he now languishes in a Khartoum jail that was filled with detained protesters in the months before his downfall.

The SPA has rallied other factions and civil society groups under its "Declaration of Freedom and Change."

The document calls for dismantling Bashir's regime and establishing an elected government with a new constitution. It also calls for ending "all discrimination and oppressive practices" toward women.

But the immediate focus is on pressuring the military to relinquish power. The SPA has called for the formation of a legislative council — in which at least 40 percent of the membership would be women — to draft laws and oversee a cabinet of technocrats until a new constitution is written.

Is civilian rule possible?
Sudanese history since independence in 1956 has been marked by long periods of military dictatorship punctuated by short bouts of dysfunctional parliamentary politics.

"The Sudanese people have no faith in political parties because those parties were always making compromises with the regime in order to garner parliamentary seats or cabinet portfolios," said Mohammed al-Neel, a 25-year-old protester.

"What is making the Sudanese Professionals Association garner all this following is the fact that it does not have any partisan leanings," he added, according to the AP.

The SPA may still struggle to negotiate Khartoum's politics.

The military has said it is reaching out to all political forces, raising fears among the SPA that it could cut deals with established parties, or even Bashir's National Congress Party, leaving much of his regime intact.

"The SPA is trusted by the Sudanese people, but it is one of five groups that formed the coalition," said Ibrahim al-Sheikh Abdel Rahman, a senior member of the opposition Sudanese Congress Party, which is part of the coalition. "We do not see the SPA as the leader of the revolution."

Ismail Adam, a senior member of the Umma Party, one of Sudan's oldest parties, said "it's true the SPA has risen with the people, but there is no democracy without political parties."

What about the provinces?
For decades, Sudan has been convulsed by rebellions in the provinces by ethnic and religious minorities who felt marginalized or oppressed by the Khartoum government.

When an insurgency broke out in the western Darfur province in 2003, Bashir mobilized militias known as the Janjaweed, who carried out a wave of atrocities against ethnic African groups there. The International Criminal Court later indicted al-Bashir on charges of genocide, the only time it has issued an arrest warrant for a sitting head of state, said the AP.

Another war has been underway since 2011 in the provinces of South Kordofan and Blue Nile. Rebels there announced a cease-fire earlier this month in support of the protests, which is expected to last until July 31.

The Declaration of Freedom and Change calls for ending Sudan's "civil wars" by "addressing the root causes," and reaching agreements that are "fair, just and comprehensive."

But that's a goal that has largely eluded all of Sudan's past governments, civilian and military. Prolonged unrest and a lingering economic crisis could fuel renewed demands for autonomy or outright independence among marginalized groups.

"The coalition is very cohesive now, because it is based on the minimum requirements for an agreement, which is the toppling of the regime," said Atef Ismail, a leader in the Sudanese Communist Party. "Everybody agrees on that."



Israel-Hezbollah War... More Severe than ‘Al-Aqsa Flood’

An Israeli firefighter aircraft drops flame retardant on fires smoke after rockets fired from southern Lebanon hit an area in the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel on July 4, 2024. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP)
An Israeli firefighter aircraft drops flame retardant on fires smoke after rockets fired from southern Lebanon hit an area in the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel on July 4, 2024. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP)
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Israel-Hezbollah War... More Severe than ‘Al-Aqsa Flood’

An Israeli firefighter aircraft drops flame retardant on fires smoke after rockets fired from southern Lebanon hit an area in the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel on July 4, 2024. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP)
An Israeli firefighter aircraft drops flame retardant on fires smoke after rockets fired from southern Lebanon hit an area in the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel on July 4, 2024. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP)

In conflicts, both sides often set traps for each other. Yet today, in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, it appears both sides are falling into their own traps.

In the current Israel-Hezbollah conflict, despite denying interest in widening the war, both are moving towards escalation.

Israel continues military drills for expansion, supported by polls showing public backing, though decreasing recently. This support concerns Tel Aviv’s military leaders, who fear the public underestimates the war’s consequences.

Former Israeli National Security Advisor Eyal Hulata warns such a war could devastate parts of Lebanon and cause significant harm in Israel, potentially resulting in around 15,000 deaths.

The Terrorism Research Institute at Reichman University conducted a study with 100 military and academic experts on potential war scenarios with Hezbollah.

Their findings were alarming: they warned that such a conflict could quickly escalate across multiple fronts, involving Iranian militias in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, alongside Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the West Bank.

The study predicted that Hezbollah could launch a daily barrage of 2,500 to 3,000 rockets for 21 days, targeting military bases, cities like Tel Aviv, and critical infrastructure such as power plants, gas fields, desalination plants, airports, and weapon depots.

This onslaught would likely cause widespread chaos among Israelis.

Furthermore, Hezbollah might employ its strategy of sending “Radwan” units to infiltrate Israeli borders and occupy towns, similar to Hamas’ actions during operation Al-Aqsa Flood on Oct. 7.

The “Gaza-style destruction” scenario was initially floated to dampen calls for the army to invade Lebanese territory.

The Israeli military, wary of right-wing political pressures and their own hesitations about war, countered by publicizing plans indicating serious readiness.

Leaked drills suggest they are preparing for a large-scale ground invasion, aiming to occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, possibly further to the Zahrani River.

They state that if Hezbollah rejects a political deal to stay away from borders, the military will enforce this with force.

They detail that the war could start with intense airstrikes, similar to Gaza, followed by a ground invasion.

Military sources reveal Israel has received delayed US weapons, including smart bombs, set to be used in airstrikes on southern Beirut suburbs and the Bekaa region at least.

The Litani River lies four kilometers from the border at its closest and extends 29 kilometers at its furthest, covering 1,020 square kilometers. It includes three major cities: Tyre (175,000 residents), Bint Jbeil, and Marjayoun, housing half a million people, with over 100,000 displaced.

Occupying this entire area won’t be easy. Hezbollah is stronger than Hamas, with a more extensive tunnel network and advanced weaponry. They’ve long been prepared for this war.

If Israel plans a short 21-day war, nothing guarantees that timeline, risking entanglement in Lebanon’s challenges once again.

The Israeli military is gearing up for a long war, preparing emergency reserves in hospitals, factories, government offices, and shelters.

They fear Hezbollah could launch thousands of rockets and drones, targeting key infrastructure like power plants, water desalination facilities, and gas wells.

Recent drills also factor in possible direct Iranian involvement, which could disrupt Red Sea shipping and possibly lead to strikes on Cyprus. This means all of Israel could face serious threats.

The Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies reports that Hezbollah has already fired over 5,000 projectiles from Lebanon, causing 33 deaths and extensive damage to both civilian and military targets in Israel.

There’s growing concern about the future of northern Israel, including 28 evacuated settlements and the city of Kiryat Shmona, whose residents are uncertain when they can safely return home.