Tunisia's Economy Expected to Shrink 7% in 2020

FILE PHOTO: A vendor sells lemons at a market in downtown Tunis, Tunisia November 20, 2019. Picture taken November 20, 2019. REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi
FILE PHOTO: A vendor sells lemons at a market in downtown Tunis, Tunisia November 20, 2019. Picture taken November 20, 2019. REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi
TT

Tunisia's Economy Expected to Shrink 7% in 2020

FILE PHOTO: A vendor sells lemons at a market in downtown Tunis, Tunisia November 20, 2019. Picture taken November 20, 2019. REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi
FILE PHOTO: A vendor sells lemons at a market in downtown Tunis, Tunisia November 20, 2019. Picture taken November 20, 2019. REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi

Tunisia’s Minister of Investment and International Cooperation expected that his country’s economy would shrink by around 7 percent this year, noting that the number of those unemployed would rise by about 275,000, quoting a government study conducted in partnership with the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).

This month, Tunisia ended all restrictions on travel and movement aimed at containing the spread of the new coronavirus, while the economic sectors returned to work normally. Land, sea and air borders are set to reopen end of June.

But the vital tourism sector, which accounts for about 10 percent of the GDP, was hit hardly by the crisis.

Minister Salim el-Ezaby said that the study expects economy to shrink by 4.4 percent, but added that deflation may reach 6 or 7 percent in the supplementary finance law, which the government will present to Parliament within weeks.

The tourism industry fell by about 50 percent in the first five months of this year. The study, which was presented at a press conference, indicated that the unemployment rate will increase to 21.6%, compared to 15% recorded at the beginning of this year.

According to the Tunisian Institute of Statistics, the total value of trade exchanges amounted to about 14.921 billion dinars of exports, compared to 21.021 billion Tunisian dinars of imports.

The institute revealed the decline in foreign commercial exchanges during the past month, while exports witnessed a decline of 37.1 percent during the month of May.



Dollar Strengthens on Elevated US Bond Yields, Tariff Talks

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
TT

Dollar Strengthens on Elevated US Bond Yields, Tariff Talks

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo

The dollar rose for a second day on Wednesday on higher US bond yields, sending other major currencies to multi-month lows, with a report that Donald Trump was mulling emergency measures to allow for a new tariff program also lending support.

The already-firm dollar climbed higher on Wednesday after CNN reported that President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency as legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries.

The dollar index was last up 0.5% at 109.24, not far from the two-year peak of 109.58 it hit last week, Reuters reported.

Its gains were broad-based, with the euro down 0.43% at $1.0293 and Britain's pound under particular pressure, down 1.09% at $1.2342.

Data on Tuesday showed US job openings unexpectedly rose in November and layoffs were low, while a separate survey showed US services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of input prices hit a two-year high - a possible inflation warning.

Bond markets reacted by sending 10-year Treasury yields up more than eight basis points on Tuesday, with the yield climbing to 4.728% on Wednesday.

"We're getting very strong US numbers... which has rates going up," said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street, pushing expectations of Fed rate cuts out to the northern summer or beyond.

"There's even the discussion about, will they cut, or may they even hike? The narrative has changed quite significantly."

Markets are now pricing in just 36 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, with a first cut in July.

US private payrolls data due later in the session will be eyed for further clues on the likely path of US rates.

Traders are jittery ahead of key US labor data on Friday and the inauguration of Donald Trump on Jan. 20, with his second US presidency expected to begin with a flurry of policy announcements and executive orders.

The move in the pound drew particular attention, as it came alongside a sharp sell-off in British stocks and government bonds. The 10-year gilt yield is at its highest since 2008.

Higher yields in general are more likely to lead to a stronger currency, but not in this case.

"With a non-data driven rise in yields that is not driven by any positive news - and the trigger seems to be inflation concern in the US, and Treasuries are selling off - the correlation inverts," said Francesco Pesole, currency analyst at ING.

"That doesn't happen for every currency, but the pound remains more sensitive than most other currencies to a rise in yields, likely because there's still this lack of confidence in the sustainability of budget measures."

Markets did not welcome the budget from Britain's new Labor government late last year.

Elsewhere, the yen sagged close to the 160 per dollar level that drew intervention last year, touching 158.55, its weakest on the dollar for nearly six months.

Japan's consumer sentiment deteriorated in December, a government survey showed, casting doubt on the central bank's view that solid household spending will underpin the economy and justify a rise in interest rates.

China's yuan hit 7.3322 per dollar, the lowest level since September 2023.