Tunisia's Economy Expected to Shrink 7% in 2020

FILE PHOTO: A vendor sells lemons at a market in downtown Tunis, Tunisia November 20, 2019. Picture taken November 20, 2019. REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi
FILE PHOTO: A vendor sells lemons at a market in downtown Tunis, Tunisia November 20, 2019. Picture taken November 20, 2019. REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi
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Tunisia's Economy Expected to Shrink 7% in 2020

FILE PHOTO: A vendor sells lemons at a market in downtown Tunis, Tunisia November 20, 2019. Picture taken November 20, 2019. REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi
FILE PHOTO: A vendor sells lemons at a market in downtown Tunis, Tunisia November 20, 2019. Picture taken November 20, 2019. REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi

Tunisia’s Minister of Investment and International Cooperation expected that his country’s economy would shrink by around 7 percent this year, noting that the number of those unemployed would rise by about 275,000, quoting a government study conducted in partnership with the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).

This month, Tunisia ended all restrictions on travel and movement aimed at containing the spread of the new coronavirus, while the economic sectors returned to work normally. Land, sea and air borders are set to reopen end of June.

But the vital tourism sector, which accounts for about 10 percent of the GDP, was hit hardly by the crisis.

Minister Salim el-Ezaby said that the study expects economy to shrink by 4.4 percent, but added that deflation may reach 6 or 7 percent in the supplementary finance law, which the government will present to Parliament within weeks.

The tourism industry fell by about 50 percent in the first five months of this year. The study, which was presented at a press conference, indicated that the unemployment rate will increase to 21.6%, compared to 15% recorded at the beginning of this year.

According to the Tunisian Institute of Statistics, the total value of trade exchanges amounted to about 14.921 billion dinars of exports, compared to 21.021 billion Tunisian dinars of imports.

The institute revealed the decline in foreign commercial exchanges during the past month, while exports witnessed a decline of 37.1 percent during the month of May.



Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed firm winter fuel demand expectations against large US fuel inventories and macroeconomic concerns.

Brent crude futures were down 3 cents at $76.13 a barrel by 1003 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dipped 10 cents to $73.22.

Both benchmarks fell more than 1% on Wednesday as a stronger dollar and a bigger than expected rise in US fuel stockpiles pressured prices.

"The oil market is still grappling with opposite forces - seasonal demand to support the bulls and macro data that supports a stronger US dollar in the medium term ... that can put a ceiling to prevent the bulls from advancing further," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.

JPMorgan analysts expect oil demand for January to expand by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) year on year to 101.4 million bpd, primarily driven by increased use of heating fuels in the Northern Hemisphere.

"Global oil demand is expected to remain strong throughout January, fuelled by colder than normal winter conditions that are boosting heating fuel consumption, as well as an earlier onset of travel activities in China for the Lunar New Year holidays," the analysts said.

The market structure in Brent futures is also indicating that traders are becoming more concerned about supply tightening at the same time demand is increasing.

The premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August on Wednesday. A widening of this backwardation, when futures for prompt delivery are higher than for later delivery, typically indicates that supply is declining or demand is increasing.

Nevertheless, official Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed rising gasoline and distillates stockpiles in the United States last week.

The dollar strengthened further on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's entrance into the White House on Jan. 20.

Looking ahead, WTI crude oil is expected to oscillate within a range of $67.55 to $77.95 into February as the market awaits more clarity on Trump's administration policies and fresh fiscal stimulus measures out of China, OANDA's Wong said.