Egypt Signs Contract to Establish World’s Largest Spinning Factory

An Egyptian state company signed a contract on Thursday July 9, 2020 to establish the world’s largest spinning plant. (Reuters)
An Egyptian state company signed a contract on Thursday July 9, 2020 to establish the world’s largest spinning plant. (Reuters)
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Egypt Signs Contract to Establish World’s Largest Spinning Factory

An Egyptian state company signed a contract on Thursday July 9, 2020 to establish the world’s largest spinning plant. (Reuters)
An Egyptian state company signed a contract on Thursday July 9, 2020 to establish the world’s largest spinning plant. (Reuters)

Egypt’s state-run Cotton and Textile Industries Holding Co. has signed a contract with Gama Construction to establish a new spinning factory in El-Mahalla El-Kubra.

This comes as part of the Ministry of Public Business Sector’s target to implement a comprehensive development plan for cotton, spinning, and weaving industries.

It is set to be the world’s largest spinning factory that will be built over an area of 62,500 square meters (sqm), according to a statement by the Ministry of Public Business Sector on Thursday.

The construction works of the plant are expected to take 14 months for completion at an estimated cost of EGP780 million, with an average output capacity of 30 tons of yarn per day.

It is noteworthy that the development plan is scheduled to take about two and a half years, at a cost of over EGP21 billion ($1.3 billion).

The plan is based on enhancing specialization and reducing the frequency of the same activities in more than one company, by merging 23 spinning, weaving, dyeing and processing companies into nine companies.

It also aims at merging nine companies for cotton ginning and trade into a single specialized one to carry out this activity.

Most of these companies will continue their normal activity until the merger process is completed, which is expected to be concluded before the summer of 2021.

Meanwhile, Egypt’s annual urban consumer price inflation increased to 5.6 percent in June from 4.7 percent in May, state Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) announced on Thursday.

Month-on-month headline inflation stood at 0.1 percent in June, from 0 percent in May, the agency said.

According to CAMPAS, the prices of food and drink dropped in June by about 1.6 percent compared to May, to record 101.6 points, while it rose on an annual basis by about 0.4 percent compared to the corresponding month in 2019.

It pointed out that the urban inflation rate increased by 0.1 percent in June compared to May, amounting to 107.7 points, while it rose to 5.6 percent year-on-year compared to the corresponding month in 2019.



Japan Oil Refiners to Tap Reserves in Case of Middle East Disruption

Men work at an oil refinery in Sodegaura, Japan February 8, 2017. Reuters/Issei Kato
Men work at an oil refinery in Sodegaura, Japan February 8, 2017. Reuters/Issei Kato
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Japan Oil Refiners to Tap Reserves in Case of Middle East Disruption

Men work at an oil refinery in Sodegaura, Japan February 8, 2017. Reuters/Issei Kato
Men work at an oil refinery in Sodegaura, Japan February 8, 2017. Reuters/Issei Kato

Japanese oil refiners see no immediate impact from escalating tensions in the Middle East on their crude procurement, but will use the country's reserves in case of contingencies to ensure stable oil supplies, said the president of Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ), Shunichi Kito.

“We don't believe that there are any obstacles to the procurement of crude oil to Japan for now,” Kito told a news conference on Wednesday, when asked about the impact of the Iranian counter-attack on Israel over the weekend.

But he acknowledged that if the conflict were to escalate and affect the broader Middle East it would pose a serious problem.

“In case of any disruption in crude oil supply, it is important to be prepared by making flexible use of the oil reserve to ensure that the oil supply will not be disrupted,” he said, noting Japan's public and private sectors have a combined 240-day oil reserve.

Japan relies heavily on Middle Eastern crude, importing over 95% of its oil from the region.

Kito, who is also the president of Japan's No.2 oil refiner Idemitsu Kosan, said his company is looking into possibility of substituting some supply from the Middle East with other sources.

“As alternative sources, we are considering crude from West Africa and North America, if they can be transported and processed smoothly in our refineries,” he said.

But he noted that most Japanese refineries are designed to process crude from the Middle East, and it would not be easy to switch to new supplies as they may not fit with their facilities.


NEOM Hosts Leading Industry Figures for its ‘Discover NEOM’ China Showcase

The tour began in Beijing on April 15, and continued in Shanghai on April 17. (SPA)
The tour began in Beijing on April 15, and continued in Shanghai on April 17. (SPA)
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NEOM Hosts Leading Industry Figures for its ‘Discover NEOM’ China Showcase

The tour began in Beijing on April 15, and continued in Shanghai on April 17. (SPA)
The tour began in Beijing on April 15, and continued in Shanghai on April 17. (SPA)

Saudi Arabia’s NEOM kicked off the China leg of its global “Discover NEOM” tour, in Beijing and Shanghai, with over 500 senior business and industry leaders in attendance.

The tour began in Beijing on April 15, and continued in Shanghai on April 17, said NEOM in a statement on Wednesday.

Organized in partnership with CCPIT Beijing and CCPIT Shanghai, the events included a series of presentations by NEOM’s leadership team showcasing on-the-ground progress and milestones to date, as well as details of NEOM’s various economic sectors.

The events highlighted opportunities for Chinese companies to engage and invest in NEOM. A number of companies expressing interest and discussing tangible next steps with NEOM leadership.

The agenda also included a forum that explored the vast number of opportunities available for Chinese construction companies. Over 100 companies participated in the forum and were briefed about the onsite construction progress across NEOM and its regions.

A private showcase, titled “Discover NEOM: A New Future by Design”, was the highlight of the events. It provided guests with an immersive experience that explored THE LINE, the 170-kilometer-long city that will be the future of urban living; Oxagon, which is redefining the traditional industrial model; Trojena, the mountain resort of NEOM, and finally, Sindalah, a luxury island destination in the Red Sea that will be open to the public later this year.

NEOM CEO Nadhmi Al-Nasr said: “We are grateful to CCPIT Beijing and CCPIT Shanghai for supporting our visit to China and for the opportunity to present NEOM’s vision.”

“To date, NEOM has already engaged with over 15 major Chinese businesses and invested in a number of Chinese startups to support the growth and diversification of NEOM. Collaboration with China will continue to play a vital role in the development of NEOM, and we look forward to strengthening our engagement with the country’s business community.”

CCPIT Beijing Chairman Guo Huaigang said that NEOM and Beijing have significant potential for economic cooperation, and that both are accelerating the development of new modes of productivity, deepening comprehensive reforms, promoting scientific and technological innovation, and working to ensure the protection of the environment. He added that CCPIT Beijing looks forward to the role the cooperation can have in Beijing’s future prosperity.

Deputy Secretary General of Shanghai Municipal Government Zhao Zhuping said: “Shanghai greatly values our relationship with Saudi Arabia. Over the years, we have engaged in extensive cooperation in trade, education, culture and more. We look forward to deepening mutually beneficial engagement with NEOM across infrastructure, renewable energy and technological innovation. The benefits and opportunities for this partnership will only continue to grow.”

“Discover NEOM” China is the latest edition of NEOM’s global roadshow; it follows engagements in key international markets, including Seoul, Tokyo, Singapore, New York City, Boston, Washington, D.C., Miami, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Paris, Berlin and London.


Iraq to Exploit Flared Gas in Cooperation with the US

The Iraqi flag flutters in front of a gas field. (AFP)
The Iraqi flag flutters in front of a gas field. (AFP)
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Iraq to Exploit Flared Gas in Cooperation with the US

The Iraqi flag flutters in front of a gas field. (AFP)
The Iraqi flag flutters in front of a gas field. (AFP)

Iraq and the United States signed on Monday memoranda of understanding (MOUs) to capture flared gas and transform it into electricity, in an attempt to solve the chronic shortage crisis, despite Baghdad’s rich fossil fuel resources.

Iraq aims to achieve self-sufficiency in gas production during the next five years, according to statements by Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani, last month.

The country has gas reserves estimated at 131 trillion cubic feet, ranking 11th in the world according to the US Energy Agency. However, weak infrastructure has reduced daily production capacity by half, recording about 1.5 billion cubic feet of associated gas.

The remaining half is left to burn in the air, causing a loss of millions of dollars and increasing global warming emissions, in a country threatened by a real crisis due to climate change, according to the United Nations.

The largest gas production projects are led by the Basra Gas Company, which is a joint venture between the Iraqi government, which owns 51 percent, Shell (44 percent) and Mitsubishi of Japan (5 percent). In addition to this huge project, the remaining production is carried out through some small stations in the south of the country.

“To allow Iraq to benefit from the US private sector’s leading technology and expertise, the United States and Iraq announced the signing of new memoranda of understanding (MOUs) to capture and process flared gas and turn it into usable electricity for the Iraqi people,” read a joint statement following the US-Iraq Higher Coordination Committee (HCC) meeting.

The press release did not mention a time period for the MOUs.

Iraq needs 40,000 megawatts of electrical energy to meet its needs. It currently produces 27,000 megawatts through stations that operate mostly on gas. But the production capacity sometimes drops to 17,000 megawatts.

Iraq has turned to Iran to fill the remaining gap. It has been importing about 50 million cubic meters since 2017.

However, reliance on unstable Iranian gas, in addition to geopolitical complications, such as US sanctions on Tehran, and internal security such as “sabotage operations” and attacks on the electricity network, cause repeated power outages in the country, which in 2021 led to violent protests.


Saudi Arabia Sets Record for Air Traffic in 2023

Travelers are seen at King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah. (SPA)
Travelers are seen at King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah. (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia Sets Record for Air Traffic in 2023

Travelers are seen at King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah. (SPA)
Travelers are seen at King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah. (SPA)

Air transport traffic in Saudi Arabia in 2023 registered a record number of nearly 112 million passengers through various airports in the Kingdom, with a growth rate of 26 percent compared to 2022, and more than 8 percent compared to 2019.

The General Authority of Civil Aviation (GASTAT) revealed, in the air traffic performance report on Tuesday, that the number of flights through the Kingdom’s airports during 2023 reached 815,000, with an increase of 16 percent compared to 2022.

Saudi Arabia witnessed record growth in terms of the number of passengers and international flights during the past year, reaching about 61 million passengers, and more than 394,000 flights.

King Abdulaziz International Airport emerged as the Kingdom’s busiest hub, averaging 30 flights per hour. Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport followed closely with a rate of 27 flights per hour, while King Fahd International Airport placed third with 11 flights per hour.

Domestic flights also recorded a noticeable increase in the number of passengers and flights during the year 2023. Passenger volume on domestic routes climbed to 51 million, facilitated by over 421,000 domestic flights departing from various airports across the Kingdom.

Egypt topped the destinations during 2023 in terms of the number of passengers, with a total of about 10.5 million. The UAE ranked second in international destinations for travelers, with a total of about 9.7 million passengers, followed by Pakistan in third place with about 5.3 million. Other key destinations included India, with about 4.7 million passengers, and Türkiye, with about 4 million.

Air cargo transportation witnessed a steady increase of over 7% in 2023, with a total volume exceeding 918,000 tons compared to 854,000 in 2022.


Saudi Arabia's Mining Boom: Expected Wealth to Top $2.5 Trillion 

The Kingdom's abundant mineral wealth, estimated at SAR9.4 trillion ($2.5 trillion), presents a crucial opportunity to expand non-oil revenue streams alongside the oil and petrochemical industries. (SPA)
The Kingdom's abundant mineral wealth, estimated at SAR9.4 trillion ($2.5 trillion), presents a crucial opportunity to expand non-oil revenue streams alongside the oil and petrochemical industries. (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia's Mining Boom: Expected Wealth to Top $2.5 Trillion 

The Kingdom's abundant mineral wealth, estimated at SAR9.4 trillion ($2.5 trillion), presents a crucial opportunity to expand non-oil revenue streams alongside the oil and petrochemical industries. (SPA)
The Kingdom's abundant mineral wealth, estimated at SAR9.4 trillion ($2.5 trillion), presents a crucial opportunity to expand non-oil revenue streams alongside the oil and petrochemical industries. (SPA)

The mining sector in Saudi Arabia is undergoing a significant transformation that will transform it into a key pillar for the nation's economic diversification efforts outlined in Vision 2030.

The Kingdom's abundant mineral wealth, estimated at SAR9.4 trillion ($2.5 trillion), presents a crucial opportunity to expand non-oil revenue streams alongside the oil and petrochemical industries, reported the Saudi Press Agency on Wednesday.

To accelerate exploration and development, the Kingdom has increased its estimated mineral wealth and invested SAR682.5 million ($182 million) in exploration incentives by the end of 2023. This commitment was reinforced by the issuance of 152 new industrial licenses by the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources in January 2024 alone. The licenses include 20 for non-metallic mineral products and 19 for activities related to manufacturing formed metal products, excluding machinery and equipment.

According to a report by the National Industrial and Mining Information Center, the 152 industrial licenses issued since the beginning of 2023 contributed to bringing the total number of operating and under-construction factories in the Kingdom by the end of January 2024 to 11,672. These factories represent a combined investment of SAR1,539 trillion.

Recent discoveries, including significant gold reserves along a 100 km stretch in the Mansoura and Masara mines, further emphasize the vast untapped potential of Saudi Arabia's mineral wealth. These mines boast a projected annual production capacity of 250,000 ounces of gold.

The ongoing transformations in the mining sector reflect progress toward achieving the comprehensive strategy of the sector outlined in Vision 2030, which aims to unlock the full potential of the sector, driving economic and social growth, in line with the Kingdom's ambitious goals for 2030.

Vice Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources for Mining Affairs Eng. Khalid Al-Mudaifer elaborated on the government's initiatives to propel the mining sector forward. The initiatives include implementing programs to create a business-friendly environment for mining development, enacting the Mining Investment Law to streamline the licensing process, minimizing the environmental impact of mining operations, maximizing benefits for local communities, and launching a comprehensive geological survey program to gather important data.

The Saudi Industrial Development Fund plays a crucial role, financing advanced exploration and mining projects, including covering up to 75% of eligible project costs, Al-Mudaifer said.

The fund also provides financing solutions for mid-tier and lower-end manufacturing, small and medium enterprises (SMEs), digitalization efforts, renewable energy projects, and initiatives to increase local sector content.

The Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources has released its monthly report, providing key industrial indicators that highlight the state of industrial activity in Saudi Arabia.

The report emphasizes the significant changes in new industrial investments and presents data related to the mining sector until December 2023. Notably, it included the number of operating factories, which rose 10% in 2023, to 11,549, compared to 10,518 in 2022.

The report also shows an increase in new industrial licenses (1,379 in 2023) with a total investment exceeding SAR81 billion. Additionally, 1,058 new factories began production last year, representing investments of SAR45 billion.

To achieve economic transformation in the field of mining, Saudi Arabia is taking rapid strides through a comprehensive three-phase approach:

Phase 1: Mining Activities

Entails exploration and survey operations to determine mineral quantities, conducting economic feasibility studies, developing mines and processing raw materials.

Phase 2: Intermediate Industries

Includes refining and smelting operations to produce basic materials, such as aluminum alloys and solid steel blocks.

Phase 3: Conversion Industries

Entails the manufacturing of semi-finished products, such as iron and aluminum sheets, as well as finished products like iron pipes and bars.

The ministry has implemented various other initiatives in the sector, including accelerated exploration programs using reliable methods, thereby boosting investment opportunities in the process. These programs are expected to achieve significant outcomes, including increased spending and investment in mineral exploration, acceleration and expansion of exploration activities, development of a robust exploration sector, the creation of attractive investment opportunities for local and foreign investors, empowering small- and medium-sized companies, to help them participate in the exploration process, and bolstering national expertise in exploration and drilling.

The ministry further boosted the mining sector with the launch of the Saudi Mining Services Company (ESNAD) initiative. ESNAD supports the growth of mining investments by assisting mining directorates and developing robust monitoring and control procedures at mines through the use of advanced monitoring tools and modern technologies, alongside support for collecting revenues and fines.

The benefits of the initiative are multifaceted. The mining sector will see a significant improvement in companies' adherence to environmental, health and safety standards. This will ensure the well-being of workers in the sector and neighboring communities, while also boosting the efficiency of monitoring exploited resources, and subsequently boosting state revenues.

The Saudi Geological Survey drafted a national geological information program that seeks to provide geological information and maps of various scales, and conduct aerial and geochemical surveys for the entire Arabian Shield region in order to accelerate investment in mineral exploration.

The program is expected to have an impact on the sector by providing high-resolution geological information that will lead to attracting and increasing investments in the mining sector so that it becomes one of the fundamental pillars of the economy in the Kingdom, boosting confidence in exploration, identifying evidence of the presence of promising mineral deposits and reserves in the Arabian Shield and developing national competencies in geological surveying.

The logistics sector also contributes to empowering the mining sector by increasing the attractiveness of investment in it through the provision of solutions for transporting raw materials and processed minerals to smelters and factories in industrial cities at competitive prices.

All these successful endeavors will maximize the mining sector's contribution to the GDP, helping it reach SAR176 billion by 2030. They will also contribute to improving the trade balance, achieving the sector's sustainability, improving its legislative and investment capabilities, creating more jobs, creating new exports, increasing non-oil revenues and localizing manufacturing.


Abu Dhabi's TAQA Confirms Talks with Spain's Naturgy Shareholders

A project belonging to Abu Dhabi's TAQA in Fujairah. Photo: The company's website
A project belonging to Abu Dhabi's TAQA in Fujairah. Photo: The company's website
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Abu Dhabi's TAQA Confirms Talks with Spain's Naturgy Shareholders

A project belonging to Abu Dhabi's TAQA in Fujairah. Photo: The company's website
A project belonging to Abu Dhabi's TAQA in Fujairah. Photo: The company's website

Abu Dhabi's TAQA on Wednesday said it was in discussion with the three largest shareholders of Spanish energy firm Naturgy, including Criteria and two private equity funds, with a view to a possible full takeover bid for the Spanish energy group.

Criteria, which is the main shareholder in lender Caixabank, owns a 26.7% stake in Naturgy. GIP and CVC each own around 20%.

TAQA said it is in talks with CVC and GIP regarding the possible acquisition of their shares, adding that if such an acquisition were to take place, a takeover bid would have to be made for the entire capital of Naturgy.

It is also in talks with Criteria over a possible partnership agreement. No agreement has been reached with Criteria Caixa, CVC or GIP, it said.


Erdogan: Türkiye Will Take Steps to Strengthen Economic Program

FILED - 18 December 2023, Hungary, Budapest: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaks during a press conference in Budapest. Photo: Marton Monus/dpa
FILED - 18 December 2023, Hungary, Budapest: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaks during a press conference in Budapest. Photo: Marton Monus/dpa
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Erdogan: Türkiye Will Take Steps to Strengthen Economic Program

FILED - 18 December 2023, Hungary, Budapest: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaks during a press conference in Budapest. Photo: Marton Monus/dpa
FILED - 18 December 2023, Hungary, Budapest: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaks during a press conference in Budapest. Photo: Marton Monus/dpa

Türkiye will take steps to strengthen its medium-term economic program and the three main priorities are to increase public savings, prioritize investments and accelerate structural reforms, President Tayyip Erdogan said.

Speaking on Tuesday evening after a cabinet meeting, Erdogan said his economic team had made preparations for such steps to strengthen the program (MTP) and, "hopefully we will share them with the public very soon."
"We have three main priorities in strengthening the MTP. These are to increase public sector savings, prioritize investments, and accelerate structural reforms,” Reuters quoted him as saying.

Speaking to reporters after the cabinet meeting, Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz said both the finance ministry and the budget authority were carrying out studies on public sector savings, with more than 15 articles being worked upon.
"We mean not only reducing expenditures, but making existing expenditures more efficient, prioritizing them, and making them contribute more to the economy's competitiveness, efficiency and social welfare," state broadcaster TRT reported him as saying.

Erdogan also said on Tuesday evening that economic growth will approach 4% this year with a positive impact from exports, and forecast that the current account deficit will be 2.5% of GDP at the end of the year.

Official data on Wednesday showed that Türkiye's current account deficit stood at $3.265 billion in February, less than a Reuters forecast for a deficit of $3.7 billion.

Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan told a panel in Washington on Tuesday that Türkiye is on track to reach its 36% inflation target by the end of the year after peaking at around 75% in the coming months.


Egypt’s Finance Minister Says Cutting Inflation Is Priority 

Muslims arrive at a field during sunrise to offer special morning prayers to start the Eid al-Fitr festival, which marks the end of the holy fasting month of Ramadan in Abu Sir on April 10, 2024. (AFP)
Muslims arrive at a field during sunrise to offer special morning prayers to start the Eid al-Fitr festival, which marks the end of the holy fasting month of Ramadan in Abu Sir on April 10, 2024. (AFP)
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Egypt’s Finance Minister Says Cutting Inflation Is Priority 

Muslims arrive at a field during sunrise to offer special morning prayers to start the Eid al-Fitr festival, which marks the end of the holy fasting month of Ramadan in Abu Sir on April 10, 2024. (AFP)
Muslims arrive at a field during sunrise to offer special morning prayers to start the Eid al-Fitr festival, which marks the end of the holy fasting month of Ramadan in Abu Sir on April 10, 2024. (AFP)

The Egyptian government's main priority is to reduce inflation to within the central bank's target, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said on Tuesday, adding that economic growth was expected to rise in the financial year starting in July to 4.2%, from 2.8% this year.

Maait also said the government aimed to sell more state assets, which would reduce the state's role in the economy, allow the private sector more ownership, increase productivity and generate revenue to reduce Egypt's debt.

Egypt's economy has been hurt over the last half year by the crisis in Gaza, which has slowed tourism growth and cut into Suez Canal revenue, two of the country's biggest sources of foreign currency. Revenue from the waterway has fallen by more than 60%, Maait said, speaking during the IMF Governor Talks series in Washington.

The challenges prompted the IMF to expand financial support to Egypt to $8 billion, while Egypt sharply devalued its currency, made its latest pledge to move to a flexible exchange rate, and struck a record $35 billion investment deal with a UAE sovereign wealth fund.

Inflation dipped to 33.3% in March from a record 38.0% in September, far higher than the central bank's long-standing target of between 5% and 9%.

Egypt generated growth over the last decade by financing giant state projects, including a new $58 billion capital in the desert, through a borrowing spree abroad that quadrupled its foreign debt.

The government hopes to lower interest rates to reduce interest payments on debt, Maait said. The central bank so far this year has raised its overnight interest rates by 800 basis points.

The government has put a limit of 1 trillion Egyptian pounds ($20.6 billion) on all public investment, including that of the military, Maait said. The private sector should make up at least 65-70% of the economy, he added.

"Giving the main role to the private sector to lead the country is in the benefit of the state. Why? Because we have close to 1 million young people coming to the labor market looking for jobs every year," Maait said.

"Who will be able to create that? The government cannot create more than 100,000 new jobs. An economy led by the private sector can create 900,000 - even more - jobs, but we have to give them the opportunity."


IMF Warns of Escalating Israel-Iran Conflict

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva (C-R) delivers remarks after accepting the ISO 20121 certificate from BSI Group Commercial Director Tim Wren (C-L) during a ceremony as part of the 2024 Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) in Washington, DC, USA, 15 April 2024. EPA/SHAWN THEW
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva (C-R) delivers remarks after accepting the ISO 20121 certificate from BSI Group Commercial Director Tim Wren (C-L) during a ceremony as part of the 2024 Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) in Washington, DC, USA, 15 April 2024. EPA/SHAWN THEW
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IMF Warns of Escalating Israel-Iran Conflict

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva (C-R) delivers remarks after accepting the ISO 20121 certificate from BSI Group Commercial Director Tim Wren (C-L) during a ceremony as part of the 2024 Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) in Washington, DC, USA, 15 April 2024. EPA/SHAWN THEW
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva (C-R) delivers remarks after accepting the ISO 20121 certificate from BSI Group Commercial Director Tim Wren (C-L) during a ceremony as part of the 2024 Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) in Washington, DC, USA, 15 April 2024. EPA/SHAWN THEW

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned on Tuesday that a broader conflict between Israel and Iran could push energy prices up, forcing central banks to tighten monetary policies and slow down growth.

Gourinchas, speaking at a press briefing, said the IMF's latest report indicates a potential 15% hike in oil prices due to Middle East tensions, adding to inflation by 0.7%.

Despite this, the IMF raised its 2024 global growth forecast to 3.2%, up from 3.1% last year.

The US economy is expected to grow by 2.7% this year, outpacing China’s growth at 4.6%. The IMF report also highlighted ongoing global growth amid falling inflation.

Gourinchas noted challenges like supply disruptions from the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine, but praised the banking system’s resilience.

Despite inflation, there hasn’t been a domino effect on wages and prices.

By the end of 2022, global growth hit a low at 2.3%.

The IMF’s latest forecasts predict steady growth of around 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025, with inflation easing from 2.8% to 2.4% by the end of 2025, revealed Gourinchas.

Most signs indicate a smooth downturn, he added.

As per Gourinchas, markets are excited about central banks moving away from strict monetary policies. Financial conditions have relaxed, stocks are up, and money is flowing strongly into most emerging economies except China. Some countries have managed to reduce income gaps and regain market access.

The IMF’s top economist explained that it’s good news that the pandemic’s economic impact is expected to be less severe than previously thought, especially in emerging economies.


Oil Prices Dip as Demand Worries Outweigh Mideast Supply Fears 

El Palito refinery of the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA is seen, in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela February 10, 2024. (Reuters)
El Palito refinery of the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA is seen, in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela February 10, 2024. (Reuters)
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Oil Prices Dip as Demand Worries Outweigh Mideast Supply Fears 

El Palito refinery of the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA is seen, in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela February 10, 2024. (Reuters)
El Palito refinery of the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA is seen, in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela February 10, 2024. (Reuters)

Oil prices extended losses on Wednesday as worries about global demand due to weak economic momentum in China and a likely rise in US commercial stockpiles outweighed supply fears from heightened tensions in the Middle East.

Brent futures for June fell 40 cents, or 0.44%, to $89.62 a barrel by 0632 GMT, while US crude futures for May fell 48 cents, or 0.56%, to $84.88 a barrel.

Oil prices have softened so far this week as economic headwinds pressured investor sentiment, curbing gains from geopolitical tensions, with market's eyeing on how Israel might respond to Iran's attack over the weekend.

"With oil prices highly sensitive to geopolitical risks, the past week has seen some wait-and-see consolidation in place as Israel's response will determine if there may be a wider regional conflict, which could significantly impact oil supplies," said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong.

"For now, the near-term weakness in oil prices may reflect some expectations that tensions may still be contained," Yeap added.

In China, the world's biggest oil importer, the economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, but several March indicators, including property investment, retail sales and industrial output, showed that demand at home remains frail, weighing on overall momentum.

"Apart from that, a build-up in US crude inventories overnight and a mixed set of economic data out of China also offered some reservations, alongside near-term overbought technicals which prompts some profit-taking," Yeap said.

US crude oil inventories rose last week more than expected by analysts polled by Reuters, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Official data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, is due on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. (1430 GMT).

In the Middle East, a third meeting of Israel's war cabinet set for Tuesday to decide on a response to Iran's first-ever direct attack was put off until Wednesday, as Western allies eyed swift new sanctions against Tehran to help dissuade Israel from a major escalation.

Analysts however do not expect Iran's unprecedented missile and drone strike on Israel to prompt dramatic sanctions action on Iran's oil exports from the Biden administration.

Meanwhile, the US government could reimpose oil sanctions on Venezuela on Thursday - which in turn could tighten supplies in the market.

Prices could trade sideways in the meantime because of these current market drivers, analysts say.

WTI price movements in the short term are likely to be trapped in a sideways range between $83.20 and $87.70 due to conflicting factors such as China's disappointing retail sales in March and geopolitical risk premium still remaining intact, said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.