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AU Seeks to Resolve GERD Obstacles after Deadline

Picture taken from the construction site of the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam (AFP)
Picture taken from the construction site of the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam (AFP)
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AU Seeks to Resolve GERD Obstacles after Deadline

Picture taken from the construction site of the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam (AFP)
Picture taken from the construction site of the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam (AFP)

The African Union (AU) seeks to overcome the current issues in the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam negotiations that have been ongoing for nearly two weeks now under its auspices.

Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia have yet failed to reach an agreement on the technical and legal issues of rules for filling and operating the GERD.

Tripartite talks continued for the 11th and last day in the presence of the Ministers of Water Resources of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia and the attendance of observers from the US and the EU.

Despite its late interference in the nearly 10-year issue, the AU held a virtual summit last June with the participation of Egyptian, Ethiopian, and Sudanese leaders, as well as South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, AU’s current president.

The talks led to the formation of a committee to resolve legal and technical issues and reach an agreement within two weeks. The technical and legal talks are scheduled to be concluded on Monday, with each country submitting its final report on the results of the negotiations to South Africa.

This comes in line with the Egyptian request to submit the case to the UN Security Council.

In a statement on Monday, the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation said Ethiopia still insists on its demands and position on the technical and legal parts of the agreement.

“This reduces the chances of reaching an agreement,” the statement read, adding that Egypt considered these technical and legal parts are “the backbone of the agreement.”

Cairo fears the potential negative impact of GERD on the flow of its annual share of the Nile's 55.5 billion cubic meters of water, while Addis Ababa says the dam is not aimed at harming Egypt or Sudan’s interests, stressing that the main objective is to generate electricity to support the development process.

Meanwhile, Ethiopia has denied starting the unilateral filling of the dam reservoir, in an attempt that seemed to reassure Cairo and prevent the failure of the negotiations.

Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister Gedu Andargachew denied Monday reports circulated by local media claiming that his country started already filling GERD since July 8.

In statements to Al- Ain news website Andargachew stressed that his government has never issued such an announcement, adding that he will hold accountable all media outlets that circulate these rumors.

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Global Interest in Israel's Air-Launched Ballistic Missiles

This handout picture released by the Israeli army on October 26, 2024, shows an Israeli fighter jet departing a hangar at an undisclosed location in Israel. (Photo by AFP)
This handout picture released by the Israeli army on October 26, 2024, shows an Israeli fighter jet departing a hangar at an undisclosed location in Israel. (Photo by AFP)
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Global Interest in Israel's Air-Launched Ballistic Missiles

This handout picture released by the Israeli army on October 26, 2024, shows an Israeli fighter jet departing a hangar at an undisclosed location in Israel. (Photo by AFP)
This handout picture released by the Israeli army on October 26, 2024, shows an Israeli fighter jet departing a hangar at an undisclosed location in Israel. (Photo by AFP)

Israel's effective use of air-launched ballistic missiles in its airstrikes against Iran is expected to pique interest elsewhere in acquiring the weapons, which most major powers have avoided in favor of cruise missiles and glide bombs.
The Israeli Army said its Oct. 26 raid knocked out Iranian missile factories and air defenses in three waves of strikes.
Researchers said that based on satellite imagery, targets included buildings once used in Iran's nuclear program, according to Reuters.
Tehran defends such targets with “a huge variety” of anti-aircraft systems, said Justin Bronk, an airpower and technology expert at London's Royal United Services Institute.
Cruise missiles are easier targets for dense, integrated air defenses than ballistic missiles are.
But ballistic missiles are often fired from known launch points, and most cannot change course in flight.
Experts say high-speed, highly accurate air-launched ballistic missiles such as the Israel Aerospace Industries Rampage get around problems facing ground-based ballistic missiles and air-launched cruise missiles - weapons that use small wings to fly great distances and maintain altitude.
“The main advantage of an ALBM over an ALCM is speed to penetrate defenses,” said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Centre for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California.
“The downside - accuracy - looks to have been largely solved,” he said.
Ground-launched ballistic missiles - which Iran used to attack Israel twice this year, and which both Ukraine and Russia have used since Russia's invasion in 2022 - are common in the arsenals of many countries. So, too, are cruise missiles.
Because ALBMs are carried by aircraft, their launch points are flexible, helping strike planners.
“The advantage is that being air-launched, they can come from any direction, complicating the task of defending against them,” said Uzi Rubin, a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, one of the architects of Israel's missile defenses.
The weapons are not invulnerable to air defenses. In Ukraine, Lockheed Martin Patriot PAC-3 missiles have repeatedly intercepted Russia's Khinzhals.
Many countries, including the United States and Britain, experimented with ALBMs during the Cold War. Only Israel, Russia and China are known to field the weapons now.
The US tested a hypersonic ALBM, the Lockheed Martin AGM-183, but it received no funding for the 2025 fiscal year.
Because it has a large arsenal of cruise missiles and other types of long-range strike weapons, Washington has otherwise shown little interest in ALBMs.
A US Air Force official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said ALBMs are not used in Air Force operations.
Raytheon's SM-6, an air-defense missile that has been repurposed for air-to-air and surface-to-surface missions, also has been tested as an air-launched anti-ship weapon, said a senior US defense technical analyst, who declined to be identified because the matter is sensitive.
In tests the missile was able to strike a small target on land representing the center of mass of a destroyer, the analyst said. Publicly, the SM-6 is not meant for air-to-ground strikes.
Because ALBMs are essentially a combination of guidance, warheads and rocket motors, many countries that have precision weapons already have the capability to pursue them, a defense industry executive said on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.
“This is a clever way of taking a common set of technologies and components and turning it into a very interesting new weapon that gives them far more capability, and therefore options, at a reasonable price,” the executive said.