Hezbollah Deputy Chief: All-out War with Israel Unlikely in Coming Months

FILE PHOTO: A man rides a motorbike past a picture of Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, near Sidon, Lebanon July 7, 2020. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A man rides a motorbike past a picture of Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, near Sidon, Lebanon July 7, 2020. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho/File Photo
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Hezbollah Deputy Chief: All-out War with Israel Unlikely in Coming Months

FILE PHOTO: A man rides a motorbike past a picture of Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, near Sidon, Lebanon July 7, 2020. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A man rides a motorbike past a picture of Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, near Sidon, Lebanon July 7, 2020. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho/File Photo

The deputy leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah, Naim Qassem, has dismissed the prospect of an escalation of violence between the Iran-backed party and Israel despite increased tensions in the last week.

"The atmosphere does not indicate a war ... It's unlikely, the atmosphere of war in the next few months," Qassem said in an interview on Sunday.

Tensions rose along Israel's frontier with Syria and Lebanon after Hezbollah said a fighter was killed in an apparent Israeli strike on the edge of Damascus last week.

After two Hezbollah members were killed in Damascus in August 2019, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed the group would respond if Israel killed any more of its fighters inside Syria.

The Israeli military has since boosted its forces on its northern front.

An Israeli drone crashed inside Lebanon during operational activity along the border, an Israeli military spokeswoman said on Sunday.

Analysts say Hezbollah and Israel want to avoid an all-out conflict at a time of regional tensions and keep rules of engagement drawn up since the party fought a one-month war with Israel in 2006.

"There is no change of rules of engagement and the deterrent equation with Israel exists and we are not planning to change it," Qassem said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that the Lebanese state was responsible for any attack on Israel from within its territory.



Western Companies Accuse Baghdad, Erbil of Blocking Kurdistan Oil Exports

An oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan. Photo: Kurdistan government media
An oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan. Photo: Kurdistan government media
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Western Companies Accuse Baghdad, Erbil of Blocking Kurdistan Oil Exports

An oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan. Photo: Kurdistan government media
An oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan. Photo: Kurdistan government media

Despite the renewed optimism over the past two weeks regarding the potential resumption of Kurdish oil exports to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, a new setback revealed by oil companies operating in the region has pushed negotiations back to square one.

APIKUR, a grouping of eight oil firms operating in Iraqi Kurdistan, criticized both the federal government in Baghdad and the regional government in Erbil for failing to present any “proposal” to restart oil exports.

This has raised further doubts about the prospects of resuming exports, which have been halted since March 2023.

Despite criticism directed at both Baghdad and Erbil, a Kurdish affairs researcher insists that “influential factions in Baghdad” are obstructing the resumption of oil exports.

The coalition of eight Western oil companies that make up APIKUR had entered investment contracts with the Kurdistan Regional Government.

These companies now face legal challenges with Baghdad, particularly following a 2022 Federal Court ruling declaring the Kurdistan Region’s oil and gas law unconstitutional, which led to a significant crisis with the consortium of companies operating in the region.

The Federal Ministry of Oil had previously accused APIKUR of “interfering in both internal and external Iraqi affairs” through its statements.

In a statement on Saturday, APIKUR said that despite the halt in oil exports since 2023 through the pipeline between Iraq and Türkiye, neither the group nor its members have seen any proposal from either the Iraqi government or the Kurdistan Regional Government that would lead to the resumption of exports.

APIKUR spokesperson Myles Caggins emphasized that the association continues to focus on collaborating with all stakeholders to fully restore oil production and exports through the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline.

The statement also pointed out that the Iraqi government has not taken the necessary actions to reopen the pipeline and enable oil exports from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, despite Türkiye announcing in October 2023 that the pipeline was ready for operation and oil export.

APIKUR had previously welcomed the Iraqi Cabinet’s proposal to amend Article 12 of the Federal Budget Law regarding oil production costs in the region, seeing the amendment as “an opportunity to meet its demands.”

However, the association now sharply criticizes both Baghdad and Erbil, stating that previous positive meetings with representatives from both governments have not resulted in any real progress toward reopening the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline.