Special Report: A Collapsing Economy and a Family Feud Pile Pressure on Assad in Syria

In this Aug. 13, 2018 file photo, a poster of Syrian president Bashar Assad, half-covered by a national flag, hangs at the border crossing point of Jdedeh Yabous, Syria. (AP)
In this Aug. 13, 2018 file photo, a poster of Syrian president Bashar Assad, half-covered by a national flag, hangs at the border crossing point of Jdedeh Yabous, Syria. (AP)
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Special Report: A Collapsing Economy and a Family Feud Pile Pressure on Assad in Syria

In this Aug. 13, 2018 file photo, a poster of Syrian president Bashar Assad, half-covered by a national flag, hangs at the border crossing point of Jdedeh Yabous, Syria. (AP)
In this Aug. 13, 2018 file photo, a poster of Syrian president Bashar Assad, half-covered by a national flag, hangs at the border crossing point of Jdedeh Yabous, Syria. (AP)

In May, Syrian tycoon Rami Makhlouf, a cousin and long-time ally of president Bashar Assad, took a once unimaginable step.

In a video he published on social media, he lashed out against Assad’s “inhumane” state security forces. “Mr. President, the security forces have started attacking people’s freedoms,” Makhlouf said.

The outburst shocked Syrians, and exposed a rift at the heart of the ruling elite. Never before had such a senior figure spoken out against the regime from within Damascus.

Through Syria’s 10-year war, Makhlouf had helped Assad evade Western sanctions on fuel and other goods vital to his military campaign. He was part of the president’s inner circle, accused by the United States of exploiting his proximity to power to enrich himself “at the expense of ordinary Syrians.” His business empire spanned telecoms, energy, real estate and hotels, looming large over Syria’s economy.

But now the two men were locked in a battle over money. Security forces had recently raided Makhlouf’s telecoms company, Syriatel, in a tax dispute and detained dozens of employees for questioning.

Makhlouf’s public defiance showed that a threat to Assad’s iron rule may ultimately come, not from the battlefield, but from once loyal allies and Syria’s collapsing economy. In a nation where criticism of the ruler is rarely tolerated, Makhlouf has been able to speak out, people familiar with the matter say, because of the family connection and because he is well regarded in the Alawite Muslim community that dominates the top echelons of Syria’s leadership. Makhlouf and Assad are both Alawite.

Reuters spoke to more than 30 sources - including people close to the Assad and Makhlouf families, local businessmen, and Western intelligence officials - and reviewed official documents to chart the breakdown of a family alliance that stretched back two generations. Many of the sources declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.

In interviews, these sources described how:

• In expanding his business empire over two decades, Makhlouf kept some of his wealth hidden from the president.

• In May 2019, Assad instructed Syria’s intelligence chief to track down Makhlouf’s estimated billions of dollars of riches stashed abroad.

• After a decade of war, Assad is so desperate for cash that in September 2019 the central bank summoned Syrian tycoons to a meeting and ordered them to hand over some of their fortunes.

“Makhlouf has brought into the open the feud within the regime,” said a person with ties to the Assad family.

The Syrian Information Ministry didn’t respond to detailed questions for this story. Questions emailed to Makhlouf via his son went unanswered. Syriatel didn’t comment.

The rise
The financial arrangement between the Assad and Makhlouf families began with the fathers.

Assad’s father, Hafez, an air force officer from a mountain village, seized power in a military coup in 1970. He turned to Makhlouf’s father, Mohamed, to manage the money, derived from state-controlled industries and contract commissions, that would shore up his rule. Mohamed, known as Abu Rami, had financial skills that Hafez lacked.

“The Makhlouf side was generally better educated and refined, so they could help out with the finances, which is something the Assads were not good at and didn’t have the education for,” said Joshua Landis, a Syria specialist and head of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma. “They were also better at dealing with the people of Damascus and Aleppo, who dominate Syria’s economy.”

Makhlouf senior reaped extensive rewards from the relationship. In the 1970s, he was appointed head of the General Organization of Tobacco, which had a monopoly over the industry in Syria. A decade later he expanded his business interests as chief of the state-owned Real Estate Bank, and acted as middleman for government contracts.

The sons grew up together and were close. As a young man, Rami Makhlouf “used to go to Assad’s residence and open the fridge like any family member,” said a former business associate of Makhlouf.

Ayman Abdel Nour met both men at Damascus University in the 1980s when he was a teaching assistant and they were students. Abdel Nour now lives in the United States. Makhlouf and Assad were so close that even their mannerisms were similar, Abdel Nour said. “Rami would sit very calmly, in a way that was similar to Bashar. He copied his personality because they grew up together.”

Bashar’s mother, Anisa, was Rami’s aunt. With a strong personality and deep political influence, she lobbied for her nephew within the family and was instrumental in his rise, said people who know the family. As his father aged, Rami smoothly took over the responsibilities as money manager for the Assads.

In the early 2000s Syria enjoyed rapid economic growth and Makhlouf’s business flourished. The jewel in the crown was telecoms firm Syriatel. The company has grown from a few hundred thousand subscribers in the early 2000s to around 11 million, according to Makhlouf. “Rami built Syriatel into a sophisticated business that many of Syria’s best and brightest wanted to work for,” said Landis.

Makhlouf drew the attention of the United States. In 2008, the US Treasury imposed sanctions on the tycoon, describing him as “one of the primary centers of corruption in Syria.” The Treasury alleged he manipulated the justice system and used state intelligence officials to intimidate rivals and acquire exclusive licenses to represent foreign firms in Syria. His ties to Assad brought him lucrative oil exploration and power plant projects, the Treasury said.

“Rami Makhlouf has used intimidation and his close ties to the Assad regime to obtain improper business advantages at the expense of ordinary Syrians,” Stuart Levey, then Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, said at the time.

Makhlouf, who rarely spoke in public, didn’t respond to the sanctions.

When protesters took to the streets calling for Assad’s overthrow in 2011, their chants were also directed against “the thief” Makhlouf. As the popular uprising turned into a civil war and then a multifaceted conflict, Makhlouf helped power Assad’s military campaign with fuel and other imports.

Behind Assad’s back, he was also feathering his own nest, said more than a dozen sources with knowledge of the matter. A former business associate and a banker said Makhlouf had created a network of front companies, including in neighboring Lebanon, where he generated his own money separate from the funds Assad asked him to place in safe havens on behalf of the ruling family. They didn’t quantify the sums of money involved.

In a post on social media on July 26 of this year, Makhlouf conceded that he set up such firms, but insisted “these companies’ role and aim is to circumvent sanctions,” not to enrich himself.

Among Makhlouf’s interests outside Syria was a Beirut law practice called Middle East Law Firm SAL. Publicly available data show the firm was set up in 2001 by Makhlouf, his brother and Lebanese partners. According to Lebanon’s Commercial Register, the law firm continues to operate and its activities include the management of companies inside and outside Lebanon and foreign trade transactions. Reuters couldn’t reach the law firm or its partners for comment, nor could the agency determine whether Makhlouf plays any role there today.

One former business associate with first-hand knowledge said that Makhlouf set up entities in Jersey and the Virgin Islands. “Makhlouf would buy supplies and equipment for the government from companies that he ultimately owns. He would create these shell companies that would be suppliers,” said the former associate, a shareholder in Makhlouf’s Cham Holding, a real estate developer.

Makhlouf’s personal wealth has been estimated by Syrian business associates at between $5 billion and $15 billion. Its true scale is a closely held secret. In one of his recent video appearances, Makhlouf said profits from his businesses were used for charitable causes, such as funding injured war veterans and bereaved families, via a holding company he owns.

The fall
With the help of Russia and Iran, Assad has turned the tide of Syria’s war. But victory on the battlefield has come at a cost.

Syria’s economy is in ruins. The Syrian pound has lost almost 80% of its value over a decade of war. The fighting has caused tens of billions of dollars’ worth of damage, disrupted agriculture, devastated industry and wiped out foreign currency flows from tourism and oil exports. Inflation is rampant and many Syrians are struggling to afford even basics such as food and power. Eight in 10 people live below the poverty line in Syria, according to the United Nations.

While Russia has backed Assad militarily and with food supplies, its intervention isn’t for free. Syria has to pay for much of the Russian wheat it imports and for weaponry.

In recent months, a banking crisis in neighboring Lebanon has cut off a vital source of dollars for the regime, worsening the economic shock and aggravating already strained money relations between Assad and Makhlouf.

While much of Syria lies in ruin, two of Makhlouf’s sons have been living lives of luxury. On social media, they posted pictures, many since deleted, of fancy sports cars, a private jet and opulent homes.

In one video, in the summer of 2019, Mohamed Makhlouf, one of Rami’s sons, appeared driving a Ferrari in the South of France. The camera zoomed in on the speedometer as he revved the engine. Another video showed him at a beach party on the Greek island of Mykonos. Someone commented beneath the post: “It’s been 45 years and they are still stealing from the people.”

As the economy imploded, Assad became determined to bring home the billions of dollars held by Makhlouf in offshore companies, said more than a dozen sources. These sources include well-connected people in Syria’s financial community, an official with ties to Assad’s government and Western intelligence sources.

In the summer of 2019, Assad and his brother Maher, head of the Republican Guard that defends Assad’s seat of power in Damascus, met with Ali Mamlouk, the head of Syria’s intelligence agency, the General Intelligence Directorate. At that meeting, the Assads told Mamlouk to track down Makhlouf’s wealth overseas, said a person allied with the Syrian government and a Western intelligence source who was briefed about the meeting. Reuters couldn’t independently verify this account. Syrian authorities didn’t respond to questions about the matter.

“It was time to put the house in order” now that the security pressures on the regime had eased after containing the insurgency, said the Western intelligence source.

A first sign of Makhlouf’s fall from grace came in December 2019, when Syria’s customs directorate accused Makhlouf and some other businessmen of importing goods without declaring their real value. The order, which was reviewed by Reuters, froze the assets of Makhlouf and his wife. It was signed by Syria’s finance minister. Makhlouf has since said he paid seven billion Syrian pounds ($3 million) to settle the dispute. Syrian authorities didn’t comment.

The sums accumulated abroad by Makhlouf - estimated in excess of $10 billion by members of Syria’s business community - are of real economic consequence. One Western diplomat said repatriating the money “is of existential importance for the regime.”

Though he caved in the customs dispute, Makhlouf has resisted surrendering his vast holdings. He told the president to seek dollars elsewhere, from other tycoons, said bankers and business associates familiar with the matter.

Starting early this year, Syrian security forces began a campaign of arrests that netted dozens of employees at Makhlouf’s Syriatel, without legal explanation. Sources in Syria said people were arrested, sometimes released and then re-arrested. Reuters couldn’t determine whether any charges have been brought. A Damascus banker with knowledge of the matter said the employees were questioned about fund transfers to front companies set up by Makhlouf in the British Virgin Islands and Jersey.

“They were interrogating them over the details of offshore companies that have signed management deals with Syriatel,” said the Damascus banker. He did not elaborate, and Reuters couldn’t determine whether any money had been repatriated.

A businessman said the detentions were designed to send a message to those working for Makhlouf “that he is in disgrace.”

The rift between Assad and Makhlouf burst into public view on April 30, when Makhlouf posted the first of three videos to social media. In the videos, he said the government had asked him to step down from his companies, including Syriatel. He also spoke of threats by unspecified people in the regime to revoke Syriatel’s license and seize its assets if he did not comply.

On May 19, 2020, the finance ministry froze the assets of Makhlouf, his wife and an unspecified number of his at least two children, according to a document reviewed by Reuters. It also ordered that overseas assets should be seized “to guarantee payment of dues to the telecom regulatory authority.” The government has said Syriatel owes the telecom regulator 134 billion Syrian pounds ($60 million) relating to the terms of the company’s license. Makhlouf insisted in one of his social media posts that he stands ready to pay.

A separate order banned Makhlouf from obtaining government contracts for five years.

A former business associate said years of acting as Assad’s trusted money keeper and family treasurer made Makhlouf feel like a partner. “Makhlouf was telling his cousins (the Assads), ‘we are partners,’ and it has shocked him they are now telling him, ‘no you are not, you are just serving us’,” said the associate, who used to work with Makhlouf.

Hunt for cash
As Makhlouf has fallen, others have stepped into his place.

One powerful man who has emerged at the top of a new elite is Samer Foz, a building contractor turned commodities trader. Foz, a Sunni Muslim, was sanctioned by the United States in June 2019, along with more than a dozen individuals and companies, for providing financial support to Assad.

“Samer Foz, his relatives, and his business empire have leveraged the atrocities of the Syrian conflict into a profit-generating enterprise,” then Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Sigal Mandelker, said in a statement. “This Syrian oligarch is directly supporting the murderous Assad regime and building luxury developments on land stolen from those fleeing his brutality.”

Foz didn’t comment for this article, telling Reuters: “You can write what you want. I have nothing to say to the press.”

In September 2019, central bank governor Hazem Karfoul assembled some of Syria’s wealthiest players for a closed-door meeting at the Damascus Sheraton. Syrian media have previously reported that the meeting took place, but details of what was discussed are revealed here for the first time.

On the surface, the gathering was projected to the public as an effort to strengthen the struggling currency through donations from Syria’s wealthy elite. But the meeting was not about charity, said three sources briefed by people who attended.

The central bank governor listed the businessmen’s properties and other assets, and the lucrative deals they had struck. He suggested their fortunes could be seized if they did not give a significant contribution to state coffers.

Foz pledged $10 million, according to the sources. The central bank governor told him that wasn’t enough, to which Foz replied, “consider it a first payment,” one of the sources said. Foz didn’t comment.

“This was to show that these merchants of war were being pressured to do their bit for the country,” said a business executive who is close to some of the attendees and a personal friend of the central bank governor. “Everyone knows who they are and how they made their wealth and who they work for.”

Syria’s central bank didn’t respond to Reuters’ questions about the meeting.

‘We shouldn’t disagree’
In recent months, Makhlouf has been projecting himself as a spiritual man, in an apparent attempt to appeal to members of the faith practiced by the minority Alawite sect. Reuters couldn’t determine how Makhlouf’s messages are being received in the community. People were reluctant to discuss the matter with Reuters by phone.

The Alawites rose to dominate the political system in majority Sunni Syria after controlling the army following a coup that brought the Baath Party to power in 1963. The Alawites’ influence has spread to business, undermining a Sunni merchant establishment that had traditionally dominated commerce.

One of Makhlouf’s social media posts after the rift became public was a prayer asking God to end the injustice against him, written in the Alawite dialect.

Commenting on Makhlouf’s social media posts and his messaging, a financial adviser involved in transactions with him before 2011 said the videos were clearly made to appeal to the loyalist Alawite camp.

“He is telling Bashar, ‘We are defenders of our community, we should not disagree.’”

In a recent post, on July 9, Makhlouf remained defiant. Arrests of his employees, he said, hadn’t stopped. “Now it’s only our women who are left,” he said. “Even so, they didn’t get what they wanted to force us to surrender.”



Iran’s Khamenei Faces Gravest Crisis of His Rule as US Strike Force Gathers

A handout picture made available by Iran's Supreme Leader Office shows Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressing a ceremony in Tehran, Iran, 17 February 2026, amid heightened regional tensions following an increased US military presence in the Middle East. (EPA/Iran’s Supreme Leader Office Handout)
A handout picture made available by Iran's Supreme Leader Office shows Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressing a ceremony in Tehran, Iran, 17 February 2026, amid heightened regional tensions following an increased US military presence in the Middle East. (EPA/Iran’s Supreme Leader Office Handout)
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Iran’s Khamenei Faces Gravest Crisis of His Rule as US Strike Force Gathers

A handout picture made available by Iran's Supreme Leader Office shows Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressing a ceremony in Tehran, Iran, 17 February 2026, amid heightened regional tensions following an increased US military presence in the Middle East. (EPA/Iran’s Supreme Leader Office Handout)
A handout picture made available by Iran's Supreme Leader Office shows Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressing a ceremony in Tehran, Iran, 17 February 2026, amid heightened regional tensions following an increased US military presence in the Middle East. (EPA/Iran’s Supreme Leader Office Handout)

Ali Khamenei has crushed unrest and survived foreign pressure before but, with his envoys racing to avert threatened American airstrikes through ongoing talks, Iran's Supreme Leader faces the gravest crisis of his 36-year rule.

An embittered population toils under a sanctions-hit economy. Huge protests in January were crushed at a cost of thousands of lives. Israeli and US. strikes last year smashed prized nuclear and missile facilities. Iran's regional policy lies in tatters, with old allies and proxies weakened or gone.

With the risk of war hanging over the Middle East, the 86-year-old's fierce devotion to the Islamic Republic, his implacable hostility to the West and his record of guile in spinning out negotiations will shape the fate of the region.

PRESERVING IRAN'S ISLAMIC REPUBLIC AT ALL COSTS

Already this year, he has ordered the deadliest crackdown since the 1979 revolution, saying protesters "should be put in their place" before security forces opened fire on demonstrators chanting "Death to the dictator!".

US President Donald Trump's threats to bomb Iran again come only months after Khamenei was forced into hiding last June by strikes that killed several close associates and Revolutionary Guard commanders.

That assault was among the many indirect results of the attack on Israel by the Iran-backed Palestinian group Hamas on October 7, 2023, which not only triggered the war in Gaza but also spurred Israel to hammer Tehran's other ‌regional proxies.

With Hezbollah weakened ‌in Lebanon and Syria's Bashar al-Assad toppled, Khamenei's reach across the Middle East has been stunted. Now he faces ‌US demands ⁠to abandon Iran's ⁠best remaining strategic lever, its arsenal of ballistic missiles.

Iran has even offered apparent concessions on its nuclear program, which it says is purely civilian but is seen by the West and Israel as a path to an atomic bomb.

But Khamenei refuses to even discuss giving up missiles, which Iran sees as its only remaining deterrent to Israeli attack, a display of intransigence that may itself invite US airstrikes.

As the US military buildup intensifies, Khamenei's calculations will draw on a character molded by revolution, years of turmoil and war with Iraq, decades of sparring with the United States, and a ruthless accumulation of power.

Khamenei has ruled since 1989 and holds ultimate authority over all branches of government, the military and the judiciary.

While elected officials manage day-to-day affairs, no major policy - especially one concerning the United States - proceeds without his explicit approval; Khamenei's mastery of Iran's complex system of clerical rule combined with limited democracy ensures that no ⁠other group can challenge his decisions.

AS LEADER, KHAMENEI WAS ONCE FAR FROM SUPREME

Early in his rule, Khamenei was ‌often dismissed as weak and an unlikely successor to the Islamic Republic's late founder, the charismatic Khomeini.

When he was appointed Supreme Leader, Khamenei had difficulty wielding power through religious authority, as the theocratic system foresaw. After struggling for a long time to ‌emerge from the shadow of his mentor, it was by forging a formidable security apparatus devoted solely to him that he finally imposed himself.

Khamenei distrusts the West, ‌particularly the US, which he accuses of seeking to topple him.

In a typically pugnacious speech after January's protests, he blamed Trump for the unrest, saying: "We consider the US president criminal for the casualties, damages and slander he inflicted on the Iranian nation." Yet despite his ideological rigidity, he has shown a willingness to bend when the survival of the republic is at stake.

The concept of "heroic flexibility", first mentioned by Khamenei in 2013, permits tactical compromises to advance his goals, mirroring Khomeini's choice in 1988 to embrace a ceasefire after eight years of war with Iraq.

Khamenei’s guarded ‌endorsement of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with six world powers was another such moment, as he calculated that sanctions relief was necessary to stabilize the economy and buttress his grip on power.

Trump quit the 2015 pact during his first ⁠term in 2018 and reimposed crippling sanctions on ⁠Iran. Tehran reacted by gradually violating all agreed curbs on its nuclear program.

LOYAL SECURITY STRUCTURE KEY TO KHAMENEI'S POWER

At times of increasing pressure, Khamenei has repeatedly turned to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij, a paramilitary force numbering hundreds of thousands of volunteers, to snuff out dissent.

It was they who crushed the protests that exploded after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's re-election as president in 2009 amid allegations of vote fraud.

In 2022, Khamenei was just as ruthless in arresting, imprisoning or executing protesters enraged by the death in custody of the young Iranian-Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini.

And it was again the Guards and Basij who crushed the latest round of protests in January.

His power also owes much to the parastatal financial empire known as Setad, which is under Khamenei's direct control. Worth tens of billions of dollars, it has grown hugely during his rule, investing billions in the Revolutionary Guards.

Scholars outside Iran paint a picture of a secretive ideologue fearful of betrayal - an anxiety fueled by an assassination attempt in June 1981 with a bomb hidden in a tape recorder that paralyzed his right arm.

Khamenei himself suffered severe torture, according to his official biography, in 1963, when at 24 he served the first of many terms in prison for political activities under the rule of the shah.

After the revolution, as deputy defense minister, Khamenei became close to the Guards during the 1980-88 war with Iraq, which claimed a million lives from both sides.

He won the presidency with Khomeini's support but was a surprise choice as successor when the supreme leader died, lacking both his popular appeal and his superior clerical credentials.

Karim Sadjadpour at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said that "accident of history" had transformed a "weak president to an initially weak supreme leader to one of the five most powerful Iranians of the last 100 years".


US Strikes on Iran Could Target Individual Leaders, Officials Say

 People walk at Tajrish traditional bazaar in northern Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Feb. 19, 2026. (AP)
People walk at Tajrish traditional bazaar in northern Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Feb. 19, 2026. (AP)
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US Strikes on Iran Could Target Individual Leaders, Officials Say

 People walk at Tajrish traditional bazaar in northern Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Feb. 19, 2026. (AP)
People walk at Tajrish traditional bazaar in northern Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Feb. 19, 2026. (AP)

US military planning on Iran has reached an advanced stage with options including targeting individuals as part of an attack and even pursuing regime change in Tehran, if ordered by President Donald Trump, two US officials told Reuters.

The military options are the latest signs that the United States is preparing for a serious conflict with Iran should diplomatic efforts fail. Reuters first reported last week that the US military is preparing for a sustained, weeks-long operation against Iran that could include striking Iranian security facilities as well as nuclear infrastructure.

The latest revelations suggest more granular, ambitious planning ahead of a decision by Trump, who has in recent days publicly floated the idea of regime change in the country.

The US officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the planning, did not offer further details on which individuals could be targeted or how the US military could attempt to carry out regime change without a large ground force.

Pursuing regime change would mark another shift away from Trump's vows during the presidential campaign to abandon what he has called the failed policies of past administrations, which included military efforts to topple governments in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Trump has assembled a massive amount of firepower in the Middle East, but most of the combat ‌capabilities are aboard warships ‌and fighter aircraft. Any major bombing campaign could also count on support from US-based bombers.

In his first term, ‌Trump ⁠showed a willingness ⁠to carry out targeted killings by approving a 2020 attack on Iran's top general, Qassem Soleimani, who led the foreign espionage and paramilitary arm of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, known as the Quds Force.

The Trump administration formally labeled the IRGC a foreign terrorist organization in 2019, the first time Washington had applied the designation to another nation’s military.

One of the US officials noted Israel's success targeting Iranian leaders during its 12-day war with Iran last year. At the time, regional sources told Reuters at least 20 senior commanders were killed, including the armed forces chief of staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri.

"The 12-day war and Israeli strikes against individual targets really showed the utility of that approach," the US official said, adding that the focus was on those involved in command and control of IRGC forces.

Still, the official cautioned that targeting individuals requires additional intelligence ⁠resources. Killing a particular military commander would mean knowing their exact location and understanding who else might be harmed in ‌the operation.

It was unclear to the officials who spoke with Reuters what intelligence the US has ‌on Iranian leaders who could potentially be targeted by the United States.

The White House and Pentagon did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

REGIME CHANGE AS A POSSIBLE GOAL

Trump ‌has openly floated the possibility of changing the government in Iran, saying last week it "seems like that would be the best thing that could happen." ‌He declined to say who he wanted to take over Iran, but said, "there are people."

While regime change operations have traditionally involved major movement of US ground forces, Trump turned to special operations forces to oust Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro, sending them to grab him from his Caracas compound last month in an audacious raid.

At the same time, the US president has also held out hope for diplomacy, saying on Thursday that "really bad things" would happen if no deal were reached. He appeared to set a deadline of no more than ‌10 to 15 days before the US might take action.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard has warned it could retaliate against US military bases in the region if the US strikes Iranian territory.

In a letter on Thursday to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Tehran said it would not start any war but that "in the event that it is subjected to military aggression, Iran will respond decisively and proportionately" in its exercise of the right of self-defense.

US officials have told Reuters they fully expect Iran to fight back in the event of an attack, raising the risk of US casualties and a regional conflict, given the number of countries that could come under fire from Iran's missile arsenal.

Trump's threats to bomb Iran have pushed up oil prices, and on Thursday a Russian warship joined planned Iranian naval drills in the Gulf of Oman, a vital sea route for global energy shipments.

THREATS TO SHUT STRAIT OF HORMUZ

Tehran has in the past threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz if it is attacked, a move that would choke off a fifth of global oil flows.

Iranian and US negotiators met on Tuesday and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said they had agreed on "guiding principles." White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday, however, that the two sides remained far apart on some issues.

Iran has resisted making major concessions on its nuclear program, though insisting it is for peaceful purposes. The US and Israel have in the past accused Tehran of trying to develop a nuclear bomb.

A senior US official said Iran would make a written proposal on how to address US concerns.

Trump called on Tehran on Wednesday to join the US on the "path to peace."

"They can't have a nuclear weapon, it's very simple," he said. "You can't have peace in the Middle East if they have a nuclear weapon."


First Ramadan After Truce Brings Flicker of Joy in Devastated Gaza 

Worshippers perform evening Tarawih prayer on the first night of the holy fasting month of Ramadan at the Al-Kanz Mosque, which was damaged during the Israel-Hamas war, in Gaza City, Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2026. (AP)
Worshippers perform evening Tarawih prayer on the first night of the holy fasting month of Ramadan at the Al-Kanz Mosque, which was damaged during the Israel-Hamas war, in Gaza City, Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2026. (AP)
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First Ramadan After Truce Brings Flicker of Joy in Devastated Gaza 

Worshippers perform evening Tarawih prayer on the first night of the holy fasting month of Ramadan at the Al-Kanz Mosque, which was damaged during the Israel-Hamas war, in Gaza City, Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2026. (AP)
Worshippers perform evening Tarawih prayer on the first night of the holy fasting month of Ramadan at the Al-Kanz Mosque, which was damaged during the Israel-Hamas war, in Gaza City, Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2026. (AP)

Little Ramadan lanterns and string lights appeared on streets lined with collapsed buildings and piles of rubble in Gaza City, bringing joy and respite as Islam's holiest month began -- the first since October's ceasefire.

In the Omari mosque, dozens of worshippers performed the first Ramadan morning prayer, fajr, bare feet on the carpet but donning heavy jackets to stave off the winter cold.

"Despite the occupation, the destruction of mosques and schools, and the demolition of our homes... we came in spite of these harsh conditions," Abu Adam, a resident of Gaza City who came to pray, told AFP.

"Even last night, when the area was targeted, we remained determined to head to the mosque to worship God," he said.

A security source in Gaza told AFP Wednesday that artillery shelling targeted the eastern parts of Gaza City that morning.

The source added that artillery shelling also targeted a refugee camp in central Gaza.

Israel does not allow international journalists to enter the Gaza Strip, preventing AFP and other news organizations from independently verifying casualty figures.

A Palestinian vendor sells food in a market ahead of the holy month of Ramadan in Gaza City, 17 February 2026. (EPA)

- 'Stifled joy' -

In Gaza's south, tens of thousands of people still live in tents and makeshift shelters as they wait for the territory's reconstruction after a US-brokered ceasefire took hold in October.

Nivin Ahmed, who lives in a tent in the area known as Al-Mawasi, told AFP this first Ramadan without war brought "mixed and varied feelings".

"The joy is stifled. We miss people who were martyred, are still missing, detained, or even travelled," he said.

"The Ramadan table used to be full of the most delicious dishes and bring together all our loved ones," the 50-year-old said.

"Today, I can barely prepare a main dish and a side dish. Everything is expensive. I can't invite anyone for Iftar or suhoor," he said, referring to the meals eaten before and after the daily fast of Ramadan.

Despite the ceasefire, shortages remain in Gaza, whose battered economy and material damage have rendered most residents at least partly dependent on humanitarian aid for their basic needs.

But with all entries into the tiny territory under Israeli control, not enough goods are able to enter to bring prices down, according to the United Nations and aid groups.

A sand sculpture bearing the phrase "Welcome, Ramadan," created by Palestinian artist Yazeed Abu Jarad, on a beach in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, 17 February 2026, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. (EPA)

- 'Still special' -

Maha Fathi, 37, was displaced from Gaza City and lives in a tent west of the city.

"Despite all the destruction and suffering in Gaza, Ramadan is still special," she told AFP.

"People have begun to empathize with each other's suffering again after everyone was preoccupied with themselves during the war."

She said that her family and neighbors were able to share moments of joy as they prepared food for suhoor and set up Ramadan decorations.

"Everyone longs for the atmosphere of Ramadan. Seeing the decorations and the activity in the markets fills us with hope for a return to stability," she added.

On the beach at central Gaza's Deir al-Balah, Palestinian artist Yazeed Abu Jarad contributed to the holiday spirit with his art.

In the sand near the Mediterranean Sea, he sculpted "Welcome Ramadan" in ornate Arabic calligraphy, under the curious eye of children from a nearby tent camp.

Nearly all of Gaza's 2.2 million residents were displaced at least once during the more than two years of war between Israel and Hamas, sparked by the latter's unprecedented October 7 attack on Israel.

Mohammed al-Madhoun, 43, also lives in a tent west of Gaza City, and hoped for brighter days ahead.

"I hope this is the last Ramadan we spend in tents. I feel helpless in front of my children when they ask me to buy lanterns and dream of an Iftar table with all their favorite foods."

"We try to find joy despite everything", he said, describing his first Ramadan night out with the neighbors, eating the pre-fast meal and praying.