A few years ago, the Turkish president Erdogan criticized the historical TV series “Magnificent Century” because, in his opinion, the most famous TV series in history distorted the Ottoman dynasty’s history, which had not been shaped by concubine intrigue and competition.
His criticism coincided with the completion of the construction of the largest ruler’s palace in the world on a hill overlooking Ankara. It includes 1150 halls and is larger than the White House, the Kremlin, and Versaille. The 500 million Euro project incited protests, as it was built while the Turkish economy had been stumbling towards bankruptcy. The opposition claimed it demonstrated Erdogan’s “megalomania”, while he justified this “achievement” by saying it was a message: “We wanted to tell future generations: from here the new Turkey was ruled!”
Then, this is the new Turkey, Greater Turkey, whose absolute ruler ordered the establishment of a guard that would represent the 16 Turkish empires that are symbolized by the 16 stars on the Presidential Seal of Turkey. These guards seemed out of date. Some carry spears, others wear golden helmets, others still wear iron masks and chains, and some have grown heavy mustaches to culminate the scene, making it look like it came out of a historical soap opera!
From the “zero problems” put in place by Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkey’s Erdogan switched to direct confrontation with most of the region’s states, and Turkey’s relationship with the European Union, and even the United States, became strained! The Turkish army launched operations stretching from northern Syria and Iraq to Libya, where mercenaries are brought together with extremist groups that have sprung out from under the Muslim Brotherhood’s mantle. It is the “Ottoman Crescent” project that stretches from the Kurd Mountains, northern Syria, and the open-ended war on the Kurds to Sirraj’s Libya and the war on the Libyan people, driven by the illusion of entrenching his influence through Libya. In Tunisia, interference is also intense through Gannoushi and the Islamist Ennahda Movement, while in Doha, there is a base looking over the Gulf state, and another is in Somalia, close to the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Harassment of Greece and Cyprus is also exacerbating, and the rift with NATO is escalating after Turkey’s covetousness for the region’s wealth was exposed! It is a “crescent” of ambitions that require much greater capabilities, in terms of military force and resources, than Turkey poses. However, with the publication of the “Greater Turkey” map, it seems that the Turkish president’s dreams threaten to ignite the region unless the Turkish people succeed in removing the danger to the area residing in the presidential palace in Ankara!
The map of “Greater Turkey,” published by Asharq Al-Awsat, dates back to the Seljuk era, about a thousand years in the past. It may have been valid in different periods, like that of the Ottoman conquests six centuries ago, because it includes the northern third of Syria, large swaths of Iraq and Georgia, all of Armenia, half of Bulgaria, northern Greece and the eastern islands of the Aegean and Cyprus... The publication of this map coincided with a military debate in Ankara on the “blue homeland,” which was summed up by Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar as Turkey’s imposition of its control on the surrounding seas, such as the Black Sea, the Aegean Sea, and the Mediterranean Sea!
Between “Greater Turkey” and the “Blue Homeland”, Turkey is facing devastating crises, with massive foreign debt, a decline of the Turkish Lira, high unemployment, and the implication of the coronavirus pandemic. Ankara, through threats and intimidation, has already obtained Western financial support, using Syrian refugees as pawns to extort the West. The ruler of Qatar also provides periodic funding to the Turkish regime, but the collapse and the expansion of corruption that mirrors that of the Lebanese mafia, has prompted Erdogan to search for alternative sources. He found salvation in trying to steal the Mediterranean’s gas, which stirred the authoritarian ruler’s appetite. His desire doubled after the failure of exploration in Turkey’s exclusive economic zone off Mersin and Antalya; thus, Ankara announced its intention to explore in the region that Cyprus is entitled to, citing an agreement with the unrecognized Republic of Northern Cyprus, exploiting the agreement for exploration under the pretext of preserving its rights and the rights of Turkish Cyprus to the gas-rich area that has the second-largest gas reserve stockpile in the world.
What is happening is extremely dangerous and leaves the whole area on hanging in the balance. The Turkish presidency, which preaches about “Greater Turkey” and threatens military adventures, is not deterred by the danger of setting the area alight. It seems to be obsessed with propaganda machines with the aim of distracting the Turkish public with empty promises to stop the decline of Erdogan’s popularity and establish the ideological hegemony of the international organization led by Erdogan, the Muslim Brotherhood. His dangerous project operates in parallel with the Persian Crescent, and he is also cautious to avoid any collision with Israel’s ambitions for hegemony. As always, extremist projects in the region coexist, carefully avoid colliding with one another and come at the expense of the Arabs!
Today, with the French maneuvers, and to a less degree those of the Atlantic, against Turkey, and after the American Senate’s ratification of “Energy Security in the Mediterranean” law, the determination to establish a permanent American energy center in the region and the American ExxonMobil’s announcement of its intention to begin exploration, America is on the way to becoming a major player. Has Erdogan started to worry about the risks of a clash he hadn’t accounted for? Especially since he knows that Turkey cannot count on its battleships, and it is well known that its maritime and air capabilities were weakened after the 2016 “coup”, and the widespread arrests of air and naval officers that accompanied it. The signs of the breakdown of his rumpus plans will not take long to emerge, but the fear stems from Turkey’s hovering on the edge of the abyss may lead to a major slip and the high costs that would be borne by the Turkish people and the peoples of the region.
