Tunisia Sees Economic Recovery in 2021 with Growth at 4%

FILE PHOTO: Men chat outside a fruit shop after Tunisia relaxed its lockdown due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in La Marsa, near Tunis, Tunisia, May 13, 2020. REUTERS/Angus McDowall/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Men chat outside a fruit shop after Tunisia relaxed its lockdown due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in La Marsa, near Tunis, Tunisia, May 13, 2020. REUTERS/Angus McDowall/File Photo
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Tunisia Sees Economic Recovery in 2021 with Growth at 4%

FILE PHOTO: Men chat outside a fruit shop after Tunisia relaxed its lockdown due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in La Marsa, near Tunis, Tunisia, May 13, 2020. REUTERS/Angus McDowall/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Men chat outside a fruit shop after Tunisia relaxed its lockdown due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in La Marsa, near Tunis, Tunisia, May 13, 2020. REUTERS/Angus McDowall/File Photo

Tunisia expects the coronavirus crisis to drive its budget deficit to 14% of gross domestic product in 2020, double the original target and the highest in nearly four decades, a government official told Reuters on Friday.

The country aims to reduce the shortfall to 7.3% in 2021, the official told Reuters.

Tunisia hopes that its economy will begin to recover from the effects of the crisis after a historic recession this year.

“Tunisia expects GDP growth of 4% next year compared to a record contraction of 7% expected this year according the draft budget for 2021,” the official said.

Tunisia’s tourism-dependent economy shrank 21.6% in the second quarter of 2020 from a year earlier, hit hard by travel bans imposed to stem the spread of the coronavirus.

Tunisia had expected to borrow 12 billion Tunisian dinars ($4.36 billion) in 2020, but its needs have increased significantly due to the crisis. The borrowing needed this year is not known yet, but other officials say it is likely to exceed 21 billion dinars.

Next year, the nation’s borrowing needs are estimated at about 19.5 billion dinar, including $6 billion in foreign loans, the government official said.

Tunisia plans to cut corporate taxes to 18% next year from 20% and 25% now to help companies through the crisis and boost investment, he added.



Russia's Central Bank Holds Off on Interest Rate Hike

People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
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Russia's Central Bank Holds Off on Interest Rate Hike

People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)

Russia's central bank has left its benchmark interest rate at 21%, holding off on further increases as it struggles to snuff out inflation fueled by the government's spending on the war against Ukraine.
The decision comes amid criticism from influential business figures, including tycoons close to the Kremlin, that high rates are putting the brakes on business activity and the economy.
According to The Associated Press, the central bank said in a statement that credit conditions had tightened “more than envisaged” by the October rate hike that brought the benchmark to its current record level.
The bank said it would assess the need for any future increases at its next meeting and that inflation was expected to fall to an annual 4% next year from its current 9.5%
Factories are running three shifts making everything from vehicles to clothing for the military, while a labor shortage is driving up wages and fat enlistment bonuses are putting more rubles in people's bank accounts to spend. All that is driving up prices.
On top of that, the weakening Russian ruble raises the prices of imported goods like cars and consumer electronics from China, which has become Russia's biggest trade partner since Western sanctions disrupted economic relations with Europe and the US.
High rates can dampen inflation but also make it more expensive for businesses to get the credit they need to operate and invest.
Critics of the central bank rates and its Governor Elvira Nabiullina have included Sergei Chemezov, the head of state-controlled defense and technology conglomerate Rostec, and steel magnate Alexei Mordashov.
Russian President Vladimir Putin opened his annual news conference on Thursday by saying the economy is on track to grow by nearly 4% this year and that while inflation is “an alarming sign," wages have risen at the same rate and that "on the whole, this situation is stable and secure.”
He acknowledged there had been criticism of the central bank, saying that “some experts believe that the Central Bank could have been more effective and could have started using certain instruments earlier.”
Nabiullina said in November that while the economy is growing, “the rise in prices for the vast majority of goods and services shows that demand is outrunning the expansion of economic capacity and the economy’s potential.”
Russia's military spending is enabled by oil exports, which have shifted from Europe to new customers in India and China who aren't observing sanctions such as a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil sales.