Do Trump’s Statements Greenlight Egyptian Military Action over Nile Dam?

This handout picture taken on July 20, 2020 and released by Adwa Pictures on July 27 shows an aerial view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River in Guba, Ethiopia. (AFP)
This handout picture taken on July 20, 2020 and released by Adwa Pictures on July 27 shows an aerial view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River in Guba, Ethiopia. (AFP)
TT

Do Trump’s Statements Greenlight Egyptian Military Action over Nile Dam?

This handout picture taken on July 20, 2020 and released by Adwa Pictures on July 27 shows an aerial view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River in Guba, Ethiopia. (AFP)
This handout picture taken on July 20, 2020 and released by Adwa Pictures on July 27 shows an aerial view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River in Guba, Ethiopia. (AFP)

US President Donald Trump’s recent remarks that Egypt may resort to military action to resolve the Nile dam dispute have addressed a point that Cairo has always officially been keen to avoid.

Ethiopia on Saturday summoned the US ambassador over what it called an “incitement of war” between Ethiopia and Egypt from Trump over their dispute about the filling and operation of a massive hydropower dam.

Trump called on Friday for an agreement between the countries, but added it was a dangerous situation and that Cairo could end up “blowing up that dam”.

Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt have been locked in a bitter dispute over the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which remains unresolved although the reservoir behind the dam began filling in July.

Egypt says it is dependent on the Nile for more than 90% of its scarce fresh water supplies, and fears the dam could have a devastating effect on its economy.

Observers interpreted Trump’s controversial remarks as a greenlight for Egypt to carry out military action over the dam.

However, member of Egypt’s parliamentary defense and national security committee, Kamal Amer said the American leader’s statements “do not reflect Egypt’s intentions.”

“Egypt distances itself from such remarks,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Egypt will continue to pursue a fair and binding agreement through all peaceful means - and they are many. It refuses to use force against its African brothers,” he stressed.

Expert at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, Hani Raslan, said Trump’s statements were more of a “strong warning” and “violent message” to Ethiopia rather than a declaration of Egyptian military action.

Trump was urging the need to reach a negotiated solution “even though he implied that the American administration was not averse to military action and it does not rule it out should Ethiopia continue to refuse any agreement,” he added.

He lamented that Washington was so late in making such a strong statement, explaining that had it done so months ago, perhaps a deal over the dam could have been reached and Ethiopia would not have been so emboldened.

Ultimately, Raslan tied Trump’s statements to the upcoming November US presidential elections, which means “they have little impact in making any changes on the ground.”

Despite Egypt’s denials that it will not pursue military action over the dam dispute, media reports emerge ever so often that it may be taking steps in that regard.

In June, South Sudan denied reports that it has agreed to an Egyptian request to set up a military base in Pagak city that is close to the Ethiopian border.

Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi soon after urged media in his country to refrain from speaking of any military action against Ethiopia. On Saturday, he stressed that Cairo was “waging a long negotiations battle.”



From Sudan to Myanmar… Five Forgotten Conflicts of 2024

Soldiers from the Armed Forces of the DRC dig trenches at a frontline military position above the town of Kibirizi, controlled by the M23 rebellion, North Kivu province, eastern DR Congo, on May 14, 2024 (AFP)
Soldiers from the Armed Forces of the DRC dig trenches at a frontline military position above the town of Kibirizi, controlled by the M23 rebellion, North Kivu province, eastern DR Congo, on May 14, 2024 (AFP)
TT

From Sudan to Myanmar… Five Forgotten Conflicts of 2024

Soldiers from the Armed Forces of the DRC dig trenches at a frontline military position above the town of Kibirizi, controlled by the M23 rebellion, North Kivu province, eastern DR Congo, on May 14, 2024 (AFP)
Soldiers from the Armed Forces of the DRC dig trenches at a frontline military position above the town of Kibirizi, controlled by the M23 rebellion, North Kivu province, eastern DR Congo, on May 14, 2024 (AFP)

In addition to the two wars in the Mideast and Ukraine-Russia that have dominated world headlines in 2024, several other conflicts are ravaging countries and regions, AFP revealed in a report on Wednesday.

Sudan

War has raged in Sudan since April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

The conflict, considered by the UN as one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, has left between 20,000 and 150,000 thousands dead and some 26 million people -- around half of Sudan's population -- facing severe food insecurity.

Also, escalating violence has pushed the humanitarian crisis to unprecedented levels, with displacement now exceeding 11 million people.

Both sides have been accused of war crimes, including targeting civilians and blocking humanitarian aid.

In October the UN alerted the “staggering scale” of sexual violence rampant since the start of the conflict.

Democratic Republic of Congo

The mineral-rich region of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, home to a string of rival rebel groups, has endured internal and cross-border violence for over 30 years.

Since launching an offensive in 2021, a largely Tutsi militia known as the March 23 movement or M23 -- named after a previous peace agreement -- has seized large swathes of territory.

The resurgence of M23 has intensified a decades-long humanitarian disaster in the region caused by conflicts, epidemics and poverty, notably in the province of North Kivu.

In early August, Angola mediated a fragile truce that stabilized the situation at the front line.

But since the end of October, the M23 has been on the march again, and continues to carry out localized offensives.

Despite violations of the ceasefire, the DRC and Rwanda are maintaining diplomatic dialogue through Angola's mediation.

Early in November, the two central African neighbors launched a committee to monitor ceasefire violations, led by Angola and including representatives from both the DRC and Rwanda.

Sahel

In Africa's volatile Sahel region, Islamist groups, rebel outfits and armed gangs rule the roost.

In Nigeria in 2009 Boko Haram, one of the main militant organizations in the Sahel region, launched an insurgency that left more than 40,000 people dead and displaced two million.

Boko Haram has since spread to neighboring countries in West Africa.

For example, the vast expanse of water and swamps in the Lake Chad region's countless islets serve as hideouts for Boko Haram and its offshoot ISIS in West Africa (ISWAP), who carry out regular attacks on the country's army and civilians.

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger also face persistent militant attacks, while any opposition to the military-led governments is repressed.

Since January, extremist attacks have caused nearly 7,000 civilian and military deaths in Burkina Faso, more than 1,500 in Niger and more than 3,600 in Mali, according to Acled -- an NGO which collects data on violent conflict.

Haiti

The situation in Haiti, already dire after decades of chronic political instability, escalated further at the end of February when armed groups launched coordinated attacks in the capital, saying they wanted to overthrow then-prime minister Ariel Henry.

Since then, gangs now control 80% of the capital Port-au-Prince and despite a Kenyan-led police support mission, backed by the US and UN, violence has continued to soar.

In November the UN said the verified casualty toll of the gang violence so far this year was 4,544 dead and the real toll, it stressed, “is likely higher still.”

Particularly violent acts target women and girls, and victims have been mutilated with machetes, stoned, decapitated, burned or buried alive.

More than 700,000 people have fled the horror, half of them children, according to the International Organization for Migration.

A Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support Mission for Haiti, backed by the United Nations Security Council and Washington, began deployment this summer.

Myanmar

The Southeast Asian nation has been gripped in a bloody conflict since 2021 when the military ousted the democratically elected government led by Nobel laureate Aung Sang Suu Kyi, who has been detained by the junta since the coup.

A bitter civil war has followed causing the death of more than 5,300 people and the displacement of some 3.3 million, according to the UN.

The military has faced growing resistance from rebel groups across the country.

In recent months, rebels attacked Mandalay, the country's second-largest city, and took control of the key road linking Myanmar with China -- its main trading partner -- and in doing so deprived the junta of a key source of revenue.