Arabs Doubt Biden Will Herald Change in the Middle East

Democratic US presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden smiles during a drive-in campaign rally at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US, November 2, 2020. (Reuters)
Democratic US presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden smiles during a drive-in campaign rally at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US, November 2, 2020. (Reuters)
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Arabs Doubt Biden Will Herald Change in the Middle East

Democratic US presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden smiles during a drive-in campaign rally at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US, November 2, 2020. (Reuters)
Democratic US presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden smiles during a drive-in campaign rally at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US, November 2, 2020. (Reuters)

Arab leaders congratulated Joe Biden on his election victory, but some people in the Middle East expressed cynicism over US policy even if he pursues diplomacy rather than President Donald Trump’s blunt approach to the region’s myriad problems.

“I was positive that Trump will not make it to a second term. He was too hostile almost towards everybody. He is (more) fit to be a mafia leader than a president of the United States,” said Adel Salman, 40, a high school English teacher in Baghdad.

“Let’s wait and see with the Biden presidency. And I’m saying to all Iraqis don’t count your chickens before they hatch. Is Biden better for Iraq? Let’s wait and see his acts.”

Biden may face some of his most complex foreign policy challenges in the region: from wars in Libya and Yemen to reassuring the United States’ Gulf allies that Washington can protect them from enemy Iran, even though he has said he would return to the international nuclear deal with Tehran.

“Trump was our friend, he loved Saudi Arabia and protected it from enemies. He handcuffed Iran. Biden will let Iran free again and this will hurt us and the whole region,” said Mohamed Al Anaizy, a Saudi Uber driver.

The leaders of Egypt, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan congratulated Biden.

Lebanese President Michel Aoun congratulated Biden and voiced hope for a “return to balance in American-Lebanese relations” during his term.

Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-in-chief of An-Nahar newspaper, told Reuters that the timing of the announcement of US sanctions on Friday on Aoun’s son-in-law Gebran Bassil, a former minister, sent a message that Washington would continue to go after Lebanese politicians over accusations of corruption and aiding Hezbollah.

“Biden is more flexible and rational, but I do not expect fundamental changes, though there may be an easing of pressure with respect to sanctions until Biden’s Middle East team is in place,” he said, according to Reuters.

Ibrahim Matraz, a Yemeni journalist, was also pessimistic about prospects for a shift in US policy after years of conflict that have ravaged his country.

“We shouldn’t forget that Biden was vice president in Obama’s administration when the war began.”

Trump’s allegations of fraud in the election without providing evidence prompted some Arabs to say Washington had no right to preach about democracy in their countries, where leaders often win 99 percent of the vote in rigged elections.

“These elections show the real face of America, a country where elections are a farce with the loser not conceding defeat and claiming he won,” said Adel al Natour, an industrialist in war-torn Syria, whose leaders face stringent US sanctions.



Hamas Weakened, Not Crushed a Year into War with Israel

People search for survivors and the bodies of victims through the rubble of buildings destroyed during Israeli bombardment, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip on October 26, 2023, amid the ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. (AFP)
People search for survivors and the bodies of victims through the rubble of buildings destroyed during Israeli bombardment, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip on October 26, 2023, amid the ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. (AFP)
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Hamas Weakened, Not Crushed a Year into War with Israel

People search for survivors and the bodies of victims through the rubble of buildings destroyed during Israeli bombardment, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip on October 26, 2023, amid the ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. (AFP)
People search for survivors and the bodies of victims through the rubble of buildings destroyed during Israeli bombardment, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip on October 26, 2023, amid the ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. (AFP)

Israel's military campaign to eradicate Hamas in retaliation for the October 7 attack has weakened it by killing several of its leaders and thousands of fighters, and by reducing swaths of the territory it rules to rubble.

But the Palestinian armed group has not been crushed outright, and a year on from its unprecedented attack on Israel, an end to its hold over Gaza remains elusive.

Hamas sparked the Gaza war by sending hundreds of fighters across the border into Israel on October 7, 2023, to attack communities in the south.

The attack resulted in the deaths of 1,205 people, most of them civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures, which include hostages killed in captivity.

Vowing to crush Hamas and bring the hostages home, Israel launched a military campaign in the Gaza Strip from the land, sea and air.

According to data provided by the health ministry of Hamas-run Gaza, the war has killed more than 41,000 people, the majority civilians. The United Nations has acknowledged these figures to be reliable.

- Dead leader -

In one of the biggest blows to the movement since it was founded in 1987 during the Palestinian intifada uprising, Hamas's leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran on July 31.

Both Hamas and its backer Iran accused Israel of killing Haniyeh, though Israel has not commented.

After Haniyeh's death, Hamas named Yahya Sinwar, whom Israel accuses of masterminding the October 7 attack, as its new leader.

On the Gaza battlefield, Israeli forces have aggressively pursued both Sinwar and Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif, whom Israel says it killed in an air strike.

Hamas says Deif is still alive.

"Commander Mohammed Deif is still giving orders," a source in Hamas's armed wing, the Ezzedine Al-Qassam Brigades, told AFP on condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to speak to media on the matter.

- 'Number one target' -

A senior Hamas official who also asked not to be named described Sinwar, who has not been seen in public since the start of the war, as a "supreme commander" who leads "both the military and political wings" of Hamas.

"A team is dedicated to his security because he is the enemy's number one target," the official said.

In August, Israeli officials reported the dead in Gaza included more than 17,000 Palestinian fighters.

A senior Hamas official acknowledged that "several thousand fighters from the movement and other resistance groups died in combat".

Despite its huge losses, the source in the group's armed wing still gloated over the intelligence and security failure that the October 7 attack was for Israel.

"It claims to know everything but on October 7 the enemy saw nothing," he said.

Israel has its own reading of where Hamas now stands.

In September, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that Hamas "as a military formation no longer exists".

Bruce Hoffman, a researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that Israel's offensive has dealt a "grievous but not a crushing blow" to Hamas.

- 'Political suicide' -

Hamas has controlled Gaza and run its institutions single-handedly since 2007, after winning a legislative election a year earlier and defeating its Palestinian rivals Fatah in street battles.

Now, most of Gaza's institutions have either been damaged or destroyed.

Israel accuses Hamas of using schools, health facilities and other civilian infrastructure to conduct operations, a claim Hamas denies.

The war has left no part of Gaza safe from bombardment: schools turned into shelters for the displaced have been hit, as have healthcare facilities.

Hundreds of thousands of children have not gone to school in nearly a year, while universities, power plants, water pumping stations and police stations are no longer operational.

By mid-2024, Gaza's economy had been reduced to a "less than one-sixth of its 2022 level," according to a UN report that said it would take "decades to bring Gaza back" to its pre-October 7 state.

The collapse has fueled widespread discontent among Gaza's 2.4 million people, two-thirds of whom were already poor before the war, according to Mukhaimer Abu Saada, a political researcher at Al-Azhar University in Cairo.

"The criticism is harsh," he told AFP.

His colleague Jamal al-Fadi branded the October 7 attack as "political suicide for Hamas", which has now "found itself isolated".

Hamas political bureau member Bassem Naim dismissed the assessment.

"While some may not agree with Hamas's political views, the resistance and its project continue to enjoy widespread support," said Naim, who like several other self-exiled Hamas leaders lives in Qatar.