G20 Recommendations to Bridge Gaps in Trade, Investment, Infrastructure

Bridging the gap in trade, investment and infrastructure was extensively discussed during the Riyadh G20 Summit (Photo: Fayez Nureldine, AFP)
Bridging the gap in trade, investment and infrastructure was extensively discussed during the Riyadh G20 Summit (Photo: Fayez Nureldine, AFP)
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G20 Recommendations to Bridge Gaps in Trade, Investment, Infrastructure

Bridging the gap in trade, investment and infrastructure was extensively discussed during the Riyadh G20 Summit (Photo: Fayez Nureldine, AFP)
Bridging the gap in trade, investment and infrastructure was extensively discussed during the Riyadh G20 Summit (Photo: Fayez Nureldine, AFP)

As the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic has led to new realities in trade, business and infrastructure around the world, the G20 had to come up with recommendations that lay out an agenda for new initiatives and channels that restore confidence in the post-Covid-19 phase.

The Saudi G20 Summit, which concluded on Sunday, underlined the group’s support for the multilateral trading system, stressing that efforts would be made to achieve a free, fair, comprehensive, non-discriminatory, transparent and stable trade and investment environment.

The final statement expressed the G20’s commitment to respond to recovery efforts in developing countries, especially with regard to the quality of the infrastructure for regional communication and the financing of sustainable development. It also stressed the priority to enable millions of workers to return to their jobs.

The G20 summit, chaired by Saudi Arabia, noted that investment in infrastructure was one of the engines of growth and prosperity, stressing that it was an essential factor in enhancing economic recovery.

In this context, Dr. Raja Al-Marzouqi, the head of the infrastructure investment team at the Saudi G20 Think Tank, told Asharq Al-Awsat that efforts focused on solving the gap between the supply and the demand.

He stated that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated the total volume of investments in the infrastructure, which are required to achieve the United Nations goals in than 112 countries, at $12 trillion from 2019 to 2030, which is approximately $1 trillion annually.

Al-Marzouki stressed the need to find proper mechanisms for the next stage, which is to improve the level of transparency, accountability and institutional building, and to provide the necessary funds to invest in infrastructure.

He emphasized the importance of using innovative tools in modern technology to reduce the costs of infrastructure.

“During the G20 meetings, we have discussed the relationship between government investment in infrastructure and overall economic growth; It was clear that there were challenges that weakened the efficiency of investment in infrastructure worldwide, leading to an increase in the rate of financial waste in public investment,” he explained.

According to Al-Marzouki, international and sectoral community organizations play an important role in improving the efficiency of investment in infrastructure and monitoring the implementation of the best international methods and practices to support the least developed countries.

For his part, economic expert Dr. Khaled Ramadan told Asharq Al-Awsat that the pandemic has led to a sharp decline in direct and indirect investment and a slowdown in the movement of trade.

Relying on local direct investments will create new platforms to achieve future growth, and will contribute to offsetting the slowdown that hit almost all economic activities during the current year, he emphasized.

The G20 Summit, under the Saudi chairmanship, discussed trade and investment, and sought to address issues related to policies aimed at strengthening the World Trade Organization (WTO) as a forum for negotiation, restoring and strengthening dispute settlement procedures, and affirming the continuation of supply chains and the flow of goods.

Dr. Saeed Al-Sheikh, the head of the working group on Trade, Investment and Growth of the G20 Think Tank, explained that today’s world trade was dominated by the escalation of protectionism and unequal opportunities to enter global value chains, in addition to legal systems that are not prepared for digital trade services.

This calls for ways to reform the WTO, especially with regards to the regulatory, administrative and legal aspects, he said.

According to Al-Sheikh, the working group presented several proposals that would regulate the reform of the WTO and provide the necessary flexibility at the organizational and administrative levels.



Dollar Falls for Second Day as Middle East Ceasefire Expectations Rise

US dollar bills (Reuters)
US dollar bills (Reuters)
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Dollar Falls for Second Day as Middle East Ceasefire Expectations Rise

US dollar bills (Reuters)
US dollar bills (Reuters)

The dollar dropped for a second day on Wednesday as expectations of a ceasefire in the Middle East conflict grew after the US signalled that an end to the war could be near, even though markets remained on edge on fears of escalation.

The White House said US President Donald Trump would address the nation "to provide an important update on Iran" at 9 p.m. EDT on Wednesday (0100 GMT on Thursday).

Trump said on Tuesday the US could end its military campaign against Iran within two to three weeks, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News Washington could see the "finish line" in the Iran war, according to Reuters.

Expectations that a ceasefire could be near have reversed some of the most popular trades since the war began in late February.

The yen recovered from this year's low of 160.46 per dollar, moving back through the psychologically important 160 level that had fanned concerns about intervention by Japanese authorities. The euro hit its highest level in a week.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last down 0.3% at 99.456, slipping to a one-week low after a 0.65% fall on Tuesday.

"Markets are increasingly buying into the notion of de-escalation in the Middle East overall," said Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen, FX analyst at Danske Bank.

"Markets are optimistic. We're seeing some relief with rates going lower, equities going higher and the price action in euro-dollar reflects that quite well."

The euro edged up 0.5% versus the dollar to $1.1603, after rising 0.8% on Tuesday.

The Japanese yen was up 0.1% at 158.46 per dollar. Sterling strengthened 0.7% to $1.3313.

At the same time, there were still signs of escalation in the conflict.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the next few days in the war against Iran would be decisive and warned Tehran that the conflict would intensify if it did not make a deal.

The dollar should remain supported by the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, while the yen is being underpinned by rising expectations of a Bank of Japan hike in April, said Sho Suzuki, market analyst at Matsui Securities.

"We may see a tug-of-war between dollar strength and yen strength, with USD/JPY trading sideways in the upper 150s," he said.

The Australian dollar strengthened 0.7% to $0.6946. New Zealand's kiwi strengthened 0.4% to $0.5770.


Oil Slides as Middle East Uncertainty Keeps Markets on Edge

Concerns are growing in Europe about an economic recession as oil prices rise (Reuters)
Concerns are growing in Europe about an economic recession as oil prices rise (Reuters)
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Oil Slides as Middle East Uncertainty Keeps Markets on Edge

Concerns are growing in Europe about an economic recession as oil prices rise (Reuters)
Concerns are growing in Europe about an economic recession as oil prices rise (Reuters)

Oil reversed earlier gains on Wednesday as uncertainty over the situation in the Middle East unnerved markets and US President Donald Trump again suggested the US-Israeli war with Iran could be nearing an end.

The front-month Brent contract for June fell $1.06, or 1%, to $102.91 per barrel at 1106 GMT, having dropped to a session low of $98.35. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May slipped $1.44, or 1.4%, to $99.94 per barrel, after falling to $96.50 earlier.

Prices rose earlier on Wednesday but then uncertainty over the Middle East conflict prompted investors to lock in gains.

"Oil prices fell after US President Trump signalled a potential end to the war with Iran," ING said in a report.

Oil supply disruptions from the Middle East will increase in April and will hit Europe as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz hits exports further, International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol said on Wednesday.

Brent futures for June delivery settled down more than $3 on Tuesday following unconfirmed media reports that Iran's president was ready to end the war.

Trump told reporters on Tuesday that the US could end the military campaign within two to three weeks and that Iran does not have to make a deal to end the conflict, his clearest declaration yet that he wants to wind down the month-long war.

Still, analysts expect that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz would be slow to return to levels before the conflict even if a ceasefire were announced.

"Even if the Strait reopens, clearing the vessel backlog would take time, with production, exports and LNG flows normalising only gradually rather than immediately," ING said.

According to a Wall Street Journal report, Trump has indicated he could end the war before reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the route through which 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade flows.

"Even with diplomatic channels reportedly still active and intermittent comments from the US administration predicting a short end to the conflict, the combination of limited tangible diplomatic progress, continued maritime attacks and explicit threats against energy assets keeps supply risks skewed to the upside," LSEG analysts said in a note.

Illustrating the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries dropped by 7.5 million barrels per day in March compared with the previous month, as producers were forced to cut output because storage is full.

US crude oil output also fell, dropping by the most in two years in January after a severe winter storm knocked production offline, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Tuesday.


Eurozone Manufacturing Growth Reaches 4-Year High

Production lines at German car manufacturer Mercedes-Benz at its factory in Rastatt (Reuters)
Production lines at German car manufacturer Mercedes-Benz at its factory in Rastatt (Reuters)
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Eurozone Manufacturing Growth Reaches 4-Year High

Production lines at German car manufacturer Mercedes-Benz at its factory in Rastatt (Reuters)
Production lines at German car manufacturer Mercedes-Benz at its factory in Rastatt (Reuters)

Euro zone manufacturers faced soaring input costs and supply chain disruptions in March due to the Iran war, even as underlying tepid demand threatened to undermine the sector's fragile recovery, a survey showed.

The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global logistics networks, causing delivery delays and pushing input price inflation to its highest levels since October 2022, distorting headline growth measures.

A jump in the cost of manufacturing, driven by higher oil and energy prices, led manufacturers to respond by raising selling prices at the fastest pace ⁠in just over ⁠three years.

"It's exactly the same as during the pandemic - this is a supply shock - normally longer delivery times are associated with too much demand in a really healthy environment but in a supply shock it falsely elevates the PMI," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global.

"It ⁠does falsely elevate the PMI so conditions would be worse than the headline PMI indicates," he also said.

The S&P Global euro zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.6 in March from 50.8 in February, higher than a preliminary estimate of 51.4.

A reading above 50.0 indicates growth in activity.

The new orders sub-index - a key gauge of demand - matched February's 46-month high but growth remained modest.

Production rose for a third consecutive month, with the output sub-index edging up ⁠to 52.0 ⁠from 51.9 in February, marking a seven-month high.

New export orders stabilized after contracting for eight straight months, providing some relief to manufacturers.

Backlogs of work increased for the first time since mid-2022, signaling capacity pressures, yet companies cut jobs at a faster rate in March.

Business confidence slipped to a five-month low and remained below its long-term average as the conflict weighed on sentiment.

Germany and Italy recorded their strongest readings in 46 and 37 months respectively, while Spain was the only country in contraction territory. Greece posted the highest reading, followed by Ireland, while France's manufacturing sector stagnated.