European Document Rejects 2021 Syrian Presidential Elections

Damascus is set to hold the elections in mid-2021 based on the 2012 constitution. (Reuters)
Damascus is set to hold the elections in mid-2021 based on the 2012 constitution. (Reuters)
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European Document Rejects 2021 Syrian Presidential Elections

Damascus is set to hold the elections in mid-2021 based on the 2012 constitution. (Reuters)
Damascus is set to hold the elections in mid-2021 based on the 2012 constitution. (Reuters)

European countries have kicked off a drive to approve a document, submitted by France, that rejects “any presidential elections not based on United Nations Security Council resolution 2254.”

Damascus is set to hold the elections in mid-2021 based on the 2012 constitution. President Bashar Assad’s reelection is all but secured. His allies, Moscow and Tehran, already support the elections, with Russia hoping that they will mark a “turning point” that would end Damascus’ isolation. It is hoping that they would pave the way for Arab and European countries to restore diplomatic and political ties with Syria, help in its reconstruction and acknowledge the legitimacy of the polls.

Guaranteed win
UN envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen was informed that the elections and the proceedings of the Constitutional Committee were not connected. The committee is tasked with drafting a new constitution, which should ideally be ratified after the elections.

There were hopes that the new constitution would have been drafted before the polls so that they would be held according to, but the committee has failed to make any significant progress in five rounds of talks, the last of which took place earlier this year. Pedersen himself acknowledged the failure after the last round, indirectly pinning blame on the regime.

Holding the elections according to the 2012 constitution allows Assad to comfortably win a third seven-year term in office. Nominees need to have continuously resided in Syria for ten years. Their candidacy must also be approved by 35 members of parliament.

Moscow has implied that reforms to these conditions could be approved during the 2024 parliamentary elections. The ruling Baath had swept the 2020 elections, effectively meaning that the fate of any presidential candidate lies in its hands.

No figure has submitted their nomination for the presidential elections, but some media campaigns have started to hit the ground in government-held areas. Reports have said that efforts are underway to reach an understanding with the Kurdish autonomous authority in the region east of the Euphrates to set up polling stations there. The authority controls about a quarter of Syrian territory.

It is unlikely that polling stations will be set up in the northeastern opposition-held Idlib province, the north and neighboring countries hosting refugees, such as Turkey and Jordan, with the exception of Lebanon.

Western countries have criticized Russia for suggesting that the presidential elections and Constitutional Committee talks should be separated, saying that will only harm the political process. Western countries have previously rejected the 2012, 2016 and 2020 parliamentary polls and the 2014 presidential ones.

Rejection of elections
Representatives of European countries have already started to hold meetings to approve the “French document” to take a united stance over the presidential elections.

Asharq Al-Awsat obtained a copy of the document, which calls for reviving the UN mediation that has been inactive for three years. The mediation should breathe new political life and help reinvolve the Syrian people, inside and outside the country, in the political process.

It expressed opposition to attempts by the regime and its allies to declare an end to the crisis by holding “fraudulent” elections in 2021. It slammed the authorities for failing to commit to the political process outlined in resolution 2254 and for failing to directly address the root causes of the crisis.

It expressed concern that the upcoming elections would be held based on a constitution and laws that grant the regime sole power. It warned that the elections would be exploited by the regime and its backers to unilaterally declare an end to the crisis while failing to commit to anything that meets the aspirations of the people. Moreover, it warned that the elections will discourage refugees from returning home.

The document said European countries have felt the direct impact of the Syrian crisis, both on the level of security and with migrants. They are therefore, greatly invested in preventing the political process from veering off its right course. They called for holding transparent elections based on resolution 2254, which will effectively help resolve the crisis, not deepen it.

It is obvious such transparent elections will not be held any time soon, the document lamented.

Any elections that are not held according to the resolution cannot help end the crisis, rather they will only undermine efforts to reach a real sustainable political settlement, continued the document.

It cited Pedersen’s remarks that a political settlement in line with resolution 2254 is not viable without holding free and transparent presidential elections.

The document proposed four working steps: Guaranteeing that refugees inside and outside Syria take part in the voting process; implementing confidence-building measures and finding a neutral and safe environment to hold the polls; preparing the legal conditions to stage the elections; allowing the UN to oversee the voting process and securing the greatest level of impartiality.

EU position
Members of the European Union are expected to approve the document when they meet on March 15 to mark the tenth anniversary of the conflict. They are set to push for increasing the UN’s jurisdiction and bolster Arab contribution in the Syrian elections, explaining that the Arabs are a main element in resolving the crisis.

Neighboring countries will be encouraged to cooperate with Pedersen to help stage the elections for Syrian refugees. The Syrian diaspora, civil society and opposition should be supported to allow them to clearly express their demands over the presidential elections. The document suggested that efforts should be launched to hold future elections based on resolution 2254 and in a way that allows expatriates to vote without having to receive prior approval from the official Syrian authorities.

Western-approved elections would follow four rules: Strict guarantees that allow refugees and the displaced to take part in the voting; confidence-building measures that would create a secure and impartial environment for voters; preparing the legal ground for a plurality vote; allowing the UN to oversee the polls to ensure their utmost transparency.

Pedersen has refused to be involved in preparations to hold the presidential elections, saying they were beyond his jurisdiction.



Israel Wary of Egypt's 'Military Infrastructure' in Sinai: Peace Treaty at Risk?

Egyptian army chief Ahmed Khalifa inspects troops near Israel's border late last year. (Military spokesman)
Egyptian army chief Ahmed Khalifa inspects troops near Israel's border late last year. (Military spokesman)
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Israel Wary of Egypt's 'Military Infrastructure' in Sinai: Peace Treaty at Risk?

Egyptian army chief Ahmed Khalifa inspects troops near Israel's border late last year. (Military spokesman)
Egyptian army chief Ahmed Khalifa inspects troops near Israel's border late last year. (Military spokesman)

Israel has voiced growing concerns over Egypt’s military presence in the Sinai Peninsula, fearing a potential escalation between the two sides amid the ongoing Gaza war.

Israeli media reports said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has asked both Washington and Cairo to dismantle what it describes as a “military infrastructure” established by the Egyptian army in Sinai.

However, an informed Egyptian source and experts cited by Asharq Al-Awsat insisted that Egypt has not violated its peace treaty with Israel. They argued that Cairo’s military movements are a response to Israeli breaches of the agreement.

Israel’s Israel Hayom newspaper, citing a senior Israeli security official, reported that Egypt’s military buildup in Sinai constitutes a “major violation” of the security annex of the peace treaty.

The official said the issue is a top priority for Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, stressing that Israel “will not accept this situation” amid what it views as Egypt’s growing military footprint in the peninsula.

The official added that the issue goes beyond the deployment of Egyptian forces in Sinai exceeding the quotas set under the military annex of the Camp David Accords.

The real concern, he said, lies in Egypt’s continued military buildup in the peninsula, which Israel views as an irreversible step.

Moreover, he stressed that while Israel is not seeking to amend its peace treaty with Egypt or redeploy troops along the border, it believes the current situation requires urgent action to prevent a potential escalation.

Egypt-Israel relations have not seen such tensions since the outbreak of the Gaza war, particularly after Israel violated a ceasefire agreement with Hamas brokered primarily by Egypt. Israeli forces resumed airstrikes on Gaza last month and failed to fulfill their commitments to withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor and Palestinian border crossings.

A senior Egyptian source dismissed Israel’s accusations, telling Asharq Al-Awsat that “these repeated Israeli pretexts ignore the fact that Israeli forces have violated the peace treaty, seizing control of areas where Egypt objects to their presence without the necessary coordination with Cairo.”

Egypt has the right to take all necessary measures to safeguard its national security against any threats, emphasized the source.

“Nevertheless, Cairo remains fully committed to the peace treaty and has no intention of aggression against any party,” it added.

Israeli forces seized control of the Gaza-Egypt border, including the Philadelphi Corridor and the Rafah crossing, in May 2024. Israel has accused Egypt of not doing enough to stop weapons smuggling into Gaza through border tunnels—an allegation Cairo has denied.

Under the terms of the ceasefire agreement with Hamas, which Israel later broke, Israeli forces were supposed to begin withdrawing from the Philadelphi Corridor on March 1, completing the pullout within eight days. However, Israel failed to do so and instead resumed airstrikes on Gaza.

Israel also announced the creation of an administration aimed at facilitating the “voluntary departure” of Gaza residents, a move Cairo strongly rejected and formally condemned.

Egypt has insisted that Palestinians must remain in their homeland and has put forward a reconstruction plan for Gaza and called for the implementation of the two-state solution. The plan was endorsed at an emergency Arab summit three weeks ago.

Media reports have indicated that Egypt responded to Israel’s control of the Gaza border by increasing its military presence near the frontier—an act that some Israeli officials claim violates the peace treaty and threatens Israel’s security.

Former Egyptian intelligence official Gen. Mohammed Rashad told Asharq Al-Awsat that Israel itself violated the peace treaty by seizing the Philadelphi Corridor, controlling border crossings, and blocking aid to Gaza while seeking to forcibly displace Palestinians into Egypt.

“Every Israeli action along Gaza’s border with Egypt constitutes hostile behavior against Egypt’s national security,” said Rashad, who previously headed the Israeli military affairs division in Egypt’s intelligence service.

“Egypt cannot sit idly by in the face of such threats and must prepare for all possible scenarios.”

The Philadelphi Corridor is a strategically sensitive buffer zone, serving as a narrow 14-kilometer passage between Egypt, Israel, and Gaza, stretching from the Mediterranean Sea in the north to the Kerem Shalom crossing in the south.

Military expert General Samir Farag insisted that Egypt has not violated the peace treaty or its security annex in over 40 years, arguing that Israel has repeatedly breached the agreement and is attempting to shift blame onto Cairo.

“Israel is doing this to distract from its internal problems, including public discontent over its ballooning defense budget,” Farag told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“It also wants to deflect attention from Egypt’s reconstruction plan for Gaza and leverage its claims to pressure the United States for more military aid by portraying Egypt as a threat.”

Farag emphasized that Egypt’s actions are solely aimed at protecting its national security, adding: “There is no clause in the peace treaty that prevents a country from defending itself.”

“The so-called ‘military infrastructure’ Israel refers to consists of roads and development projects in Sinai.”

“The US has satellite surveillance over the region—if Egypt had violated the treaty, Washington would have flagged it. Moreover, security coordination between Egypt and Israel continues daily,” he explained.

Egypt and Israel signed their landmark peace treaty on March 25, 1979, committing to resolving disputes peacefully and prohibiting the use or threat of force. The agreement also established military deployment guidelines and a joint security coordination committee.

Meanwhile, US Republican Party member Tom Harb told Asharq Al-Awsat that Washington has received intelligence from multiple sources indicating that Egypt has amassed a significant military force in Sinai.

Israel considers this a breach of the peace treaty, which designates Sinai as a demilitarized zone to prevent surprises like the 1973 war, Harb said.

While the US fully supports Israel’s concerns, it also wants to prevent further escalation, as that would destabilize the region, he added.

Ultimately, Egypt must clarify whether its troop movements are aimed at threatening Israel or preventing Palestinians from crossing into Egyptian territory, he stated.