I first met Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, when he was in his previous job as prime minister of Norway and I was NATO’s supreme allied commander. A tall, engaging man who becomes very animated when he speaks informally, he sails directly at you on the issues like the prow of a Viking ship, and I liked working with him. His Norwegian military forces — whether in Afghanistan or elsewhere on NATO operations — were invariably proud, determined and utterly professional.
So I was happy to see him become secretary general in 2014, and it’s fortunate that he’s agreed to an extension at the top of the alliance until late 2022. During his time in office, the European allies and Canada have consistently increased defense spending, adding nearly $200 billion to the bottom line. While many members are still lagging in terms of meeting the shared goal of allocating 2% of gross domestic product to defense, the progress has been noteworthy and welcome in Washington.
I recently hosted a virtual conversation with Stoltenberg in front of hundreds of members of the Council on Foreign Relations, and he was brisk and candid as he surveyed the current state and the future of NATO. After his opening remarks, I asked him specifically about “the three C’s,” which I think will define the next phase of NATO’s operations: China, climate and cyber.
The secretary general is keenly aware of President Joe Biden’s desire to see NATO stand with the US to balance the growing power China, even though strictly speaking it is “out of the North Atlantic area,” as defined in the NATO treaty. The alliance has certainly operated out of area before, notably in Afghanistan and Libya.
When I asked if NATO would join freedom-of-navigation patrols in the South China Sea, he chose not to speculate, but correctly pointed out that several key allies are already operating in their national capacity in doing so. So far, the UK, France and Germany have indicated they will sail the South China Sea in support of freedom of international waters — a long way from Europe, but in solidarity with the US. He also emphasized that NATO will continue to elevate its relationships with Asian partners such as Australian and Japan.
In terms of climate, Stoltenberg outlined a number of reasons NATO must become involved in dealing with climate, including the sheer scope and scale of NATO operations; the way in which climate change is creating geopolitical crises that affect both Europe and North America (for example, droughts in Central America and northern Africa); the melting of the polar ice caps and opening of critical sea lanes in the high north (with Russian activity increasing near five alliance members and two significant NATO partners, Finland and Sweden); and the costs of using NATO militaries to respond to natural disasters, which appear to have been exacerbated by warming temperatures.
He mentioned that NATO would seek to reduce its carbon footprint across all member states. Given the collective size of the defense budgets of all the nations (nearly $1 trillion), this would be very significant over time.
Stoltenberg was likewise keenly aware of the growing challenges posed by cyberattacks. He focused on Russian activity, referencing the recent hack of SolarWinds Corp., almost certainly perpetrated by Moscow. His approach for the alliance is sound: Maintain the “cyber perimeter” of the alliance command-and-control systems; gradually increase NATO information-sharing on cybersecurity; continue financial support of the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defense Center of Excellence in Tallinn, Estonia; and keep a weather eye on Russian capabilities and patterns. Of particular note, he clarified that a significant cyberattack would constitute an Article V event — triggering the commitment of “an attack on one is an attack on all” that is at the heart of the NATO treaty.
Throughout the conversation, he alluded to the need for the alliance to publish its next Strategic Concept, a statement on the alliance’s values and objectives, pointing out that it has not been done since 2010. I participated in constructing Strategic Concept 2010, an effort led by former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. It focused on Afghanistan, the Balkans, piracy and a number of other topics including NATO relations with Russia, which back then were still hopeful. So much has changed over the past decade, and clearly it is time to update it by including the “three C’s.” Jens Stoltenberg appears to be the right Viking at the helm.
Bloomberg
