Palestinian Leadership Mulls Canceling the Elections

A voter registration station in the West Bank. (Wafa)
A voter registration station in the West Bank. (Wafa)
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Palestinian Leadership Mulls Canceling the Elections

A voter registration station in the West Bank. (Wafa)
A voter registration station in the West Bank. (Wafa)

The Executive Committee of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) confirmed during its meeting that elections could not be held without Jerusalem, according to a committee member, Ahmed Majdalani.

Majdalani confirmed that holding the elections was a Palestinian decision that had no regional or international ties, as the gateway to ending the division and renewing the structure of the Palestinian political system.

“Ignoring the official Palestinian request is a clear response that the Israeli government doesn’t want to allow the Palestinian elections in East Jerusalem,” said Majdalani, indicating that it is an explicit response that elections cannot be held.

Majdalani’s statement confirms the final position of the Palestinian leadership, meaning the elections due on May 22 will most likely not take place, given that Israel does not allow any Palestinian "sovereign" activity in Jerusalem.

The Palestinian leadership is expected to make a final decision regarding the general elections within a week.

Sources close to the matter told Asharq Al-Awsat that the PA had given European mediators a deadline within the next week to respond to resolve this matter.

The sources added that a proposal to open their European consulates as polling centers was rejected because it does not guarantee the right of Jerusalemites to run for elections or launch campaigns. It also violates the legal sovereign right of the Palestinians.

President Mahmoud Abbas asserted during the meeting of the PLO Executive Committee: “We are determined to hold the elections on scheduled in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip.”

The Palestinian leadership called upon the international community to put pressure on Israel not to create obstacles in the face of Palestinian elections.

The Executive Committee called upon the UN, the EU, Russia, and China, to pressure Israel into allowing Palestinians to vote in Jerusalem and urged them not to impede the elections process in all the occupied Palestinian territories.

The Executive Committee condemned Israel for arresting candidates and preventing them from carrying out any electoral activity in Jerusalem.

On Saturday, Israel arrested three Palestinian candidates in Jerusalem, after it prevented a press conference for the elections.

Meanwhile, Hamas believes Fatah is using Jerusalem as a pretext to cancel the elections.

Hamas official Rafat Nassif said that holding the elections and renewing the legitimacy of Palestinian institutions was a national priority that ought not be conceded, stressing the importance of facilitating the elections in Jerusalem by the occupation.

Nassif asserted that the Palestinian political and national life will not return to stagnation, pending the approval of the occupation to hold the elections.

Fatah spokesman, Osama al-Qawasmi denounced Hamas's position saying it was shameful to claim Jerusalem was being used to postpone the elections, describing the city “as the place of agreement and unity, not disagreement.”

Qawasmi indicated that Fatah was looking for an opportunity to ensure the success of the elections and establish national unity and the rule of law, but not at the expense of the legal and political status of Jerusalem.

“It is not acceptable for Jerusalem to be a cause of internal discord in any way,” he stressed.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”