Palestinian Parties Reject Canceling Elections

A protest against postponing the elections in front of the headquarters of the Central Elections Commission in Gaza (dpa)
A protest against postponing the elections in front of the headquarters of the Central Elections Commission in Gaza (dpa)
TT

Palestinian Parties Reject Canceling Elections

A protest against postponing the elections in front of the headquarters of the Central Elections Commission in Gaza (dpa)
A protest against postponing the elections in front of the headquarters of the Central Elections Commission in Gaza (dpa)

Rumors that the Israeli government has agreed to allow the elections to take place, including in East Jerusalem, are “unfounded,” the Palestinian Authority (PA) has announced.

Earlier, Israel tried to embarrass Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas by suggesting that it does not interfere in the elections and holding them depends on Abbas himself.

Fatah Central Committee Member Hussein al-Sheikh said “the Israeli government has officially informed us that the Israeli position on holding elections in East Jerusalem remains negative.”

Sheikh stressed the party that must receive the official Israeli decision is the Palestinian National Authority.

The Israel Hayom newspaper and Walla website have reported that Tel Aviv will not interfere in the polls, and it informed European countries that it did not prevent the Palestinian elections from taking place in Jerusalem.

Head of the Israeli Foreign Ministry’s political department Alan Bar said in a meeting with 13 European ambassadors that Tel Aviv views the Palestinian elections an internal matter and will not intervene in the polls.

He claimed that Israel has not taken any official position on the elections in East Jerusalem, telling the ambassadors that it was up to Abbas to make the decision.

The statements consolidated the belief among Palestinian opposition and electoral blocs that Abbas has a desire to cancel the elections over disagreements within Fatah and the formation of alternative lists of the movement's leaders.

Member of Hamas politburo Mousa Abu Marzouk confirmed the movement’s rejection to postpone the elections under any pretext, warning any such move would affect the future of Palestinian reconciliation.

The official asserted Hamas’ position on holding the polls in Jerusalem, saying the justifications for postponement are “unrealistic.”

Nashaat al-Aqtash, the campaign manager of the independent Watan candidates, said the list “will not recognize the postponement.”

“The reason is that the president issued the election decree and no longer has the authority to issue decrees at this stage. It is now up to the election commission,” indicated Aqtash, who is also a media professor at Bir Zeit University.

Fatah media official Munir al-Jaghoub responded by saying that the Palestinian factions signed an agreement in Cairo that there would be no elections without Jerusalem.

Fatah argues that the matter is related to sovereign and legal issues, given that East Jerusalem is the capital of the Palestinian state.

A number of electoral lists sent a letter to Abbas, and another copy to the chairman of the Palestinian Central Elections Commission (PCEC) Hanna Nasser, stressing the importance of implementing the presidential decree to hold legislative, presidential, and National Council elections on their specified dates.

They indicated that the elections are a long-awaited fundamental right that must be implemented for political and national reasons and a commitment to the popular demand of over 90 percent of the electorate.

The message stressed the importance of renewing the legitimacy of all Palestinian institutions to enable them to face the challenges that threaten the Palestinian cause.

Abbas is expected to hold a meeting with the factions to discuss the legislative elections, and he is anticipated to deliver a speech on Thursday announcing the postponement of the elections over the failure to hold them in Jerusalem.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
TT

Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”