World Bank: Lebanon Crisis Among World's Worst Since 1850s

Anti-government demonstrators block the street with burning garbage dumpsters in front of Lebanon's central bank in this file picture taken on March 16, 2021 - AFP
Anti-government demonstrators block the street with burning garbage dumpsters in front of Lebanon's central bank in this file picture taken on March 16, 2021 - AFP
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World Bank: Lebanon Crisis Among World's Worst Since 1850s

Anti-government demonstrators block the street with burning garbage dumpsters in front of Lebanon's central bank in this file picture taken on March 16, 2021 - AFP
Anti-government demonstrators block the street with burning garbage dumpsters in front of Lebanon's central bank in this file picture taken on March 16, 2021 - AFP

Lebanon's economic collapse is likely to rank among the world's worst financial crises since the mid-19th century, the World Bank said in a damning report released Tuesday.

The report predicts that Lebanon's economy will shrink by close to 10 percent in 2021 and stresses there is "no clear turning point in the horizon".

Lebanon defaulted on its debt last year, the currency lost around 85 percent of its value and poverty is devastating a country once seen as a beacon of prosperity in the region, AFP reported.

"The economic and financial crisis is likely to rank in the top 10, possibly top 3, most severe crisis episodes globally since the mid-nineteenth century," the report said.

The latest World Bank Lebanon Economic Monitor report, entitled "Lebanon Sinking: To the Top 3", said such brutal economic collapses are usually the result of war.

The complete meltdown of Lebanon's economy during the past 18 months is widely blamed on corruption and mismanagement by the country's hereditary political elite.

"Policy responses by Lebanon's leadership to these challenges have been highly inadequate," the report says.

Lebanon's ruling class has failed to act on the country's worst emergency in a generation, which was compounded by the coronavirus pandemic and a devastating explosion at Beirut port last August.

"The increasingly dire socio-economic conditions risk systemic national failings with regional and potentially global effects," the World Bank said.

The International Monetary Fund has offered assistance but the country's political barons have failed to even form a government that could deliver the reforms on which foreign aid is conditioned.

- 'Social unrest' -

"Subject to extraordinarily high uncertainty, real GDP is projected to contract by a further 9.5 percent in 2021," said the World Bank, dashing any hopes of a quick recovery.

According to the monetary institution, the economy contracted by 6.7 percent in 2019 and 20.3 percent in 2020.

The solutions the Lebanese authorities have so far opted for to ease the financial crisis have placed much of the burden on small depositors.

The report warned of "potential triggers to social unrest" in a country with a history of conflict and instability.

"The increasingly dire socio-economic conditions risk systemic national failings with regional and potentially global effects," it said.

The bankrupt state is unable to settle many of its bills and Lebanon's own energy minister, Raymond Ghajar, has warned that electricity supply was becoming critical and that the country could be plunged into total darkness by June's end.

"The sharp deterioration in basic services would have long-term implications: mass migration, loss of learning, poor health outcomes, lack of adequate safety nets, among others," the report said.

"Permanent damage to human capital would be very hard to recover," said the World Bank Lebanon Economic Monitor, whose previous report was entitled "The Deliberate Depression".

"Perhaps this dimension of the Lebanese crisis makes the Lebanon episode unique compared to other global crises," it said.

Some teachers in Lebanon are now earning the equivalent of less than $200 monthly, doctors are increasingly looking for work abroad and many students can no longer afford university tuition.



Saudi EXIM Hosts Global Risk Experts Meeting in Riyadh

The event gathered specialists from 47 organizations from 33 countries; it served as a platform for discussing strategies, partnerships, and innovative solutions. - SPA
The event gathered specialists from 47 organizations from 33 countries; it served as a platform for discussing strategies, partnerships, and innovative solutions. - SPA
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Saudi EXIM Hosts Global Risk Experts Meeting in Riyadh

The event gathered specialists from 47 organizations from 33 countries; it served as a platform for discussing strategies, partnerships, and innovative solutions. - SPA
The event gathered specialists from 47 organizations from 33 countries; it served as a platform for discussing strategies, partnerships, and innovative solutions. - SPA

The Saudi Export-Import Bank (Saudi EXIM) hosted the Berne Union's Country Risk Specialist Meeting, providing a platform for experts and thought leaders in risk management from the export credit community.
At the meeting, which took place from November 19 to 21 in Riyadh, the attendees exchanged best practices to better protect the industry amid shifting global dynamics.
According to a statement issued by the Saudi EXIM on Saturday, the event gathered specialists from 47 organizations from 33 countries; it served as a platform for discussing strategies, partnerships, and innovative solutions.
By strengthening institutional resilience, the industry is ready to turn global economic challenges into opportunities for economic prosperity, said the statement, adding that it played a crucial role in advancing global trade, strengthening international cooperation, and developing credit solutions that empower export activities while controlling risk, SPA reported.
According to the statement, discussions centered on critical risks impacting international trade and the global economy, such as debt sustainability and geopolitical tensions, along with innovative approaches to risk modelling. Participants also explored the global shifts in infrastructure, energy and critical minerals sectors, and were given an overview of Saudi Arabia's National Industrial Strategy, which focuses on economic diversification through investments, developing new sectors, and promoting local industries.
In his opening remarks, Saudi EXIM CEO Eng. Saad bin Abdulaziz Al-Khalb said the meeting is an ideal platform to address risks impacting global economic decision making.
He stated: "Through such meetings, we can turn challenges into strategic opportunities and enhance our resilience in an ever-changing world. At Saudi EXIM, we remain committed to enabling companies by offering expert financial and non-financial solutions to navigate risks effectively."
He also said that "at Saudi EXIM, we place great emphasis on risk management. In alignment with the main objective of this meeting, I am pleased to announce the completion of our independent country risk model, which is supported by advanced modelling tools and machine learning. This model will provide country ratings and predictions of default risks. We look forward to collaborating with our partners in other export credit agencies to exchange knowledge and expertise, and to strengthening our risk management functions with greater responsibility and effectiveness."
Associate Director at Berne Union Eve Hall said: "The global risk landscape today is highly volatile and highly interconnected. As we navigate our way around the ongoing transformations connected to energy transition and shifting industrial strategies, the traditional concept of 'country risk' is becoming increasingly complex. Our industry excels at understanding, quantifying and pricing these risks, and by bringing together this community of experts for technical exchange the Berne Union is able to help support the development of the industry as a whole. The initiatives announced by our colleagues at Saudi EXIM, making use of new technology in risk analysis, provide a fantastic example of where collaboration in this field can be effectively applied."
The statement disclosed that Saudi EXIM's membership in Berne represents a significant strategic step, and is consistent with the Kingdom's commitment to expanding collaboration and integration in the global economy.
This is achieved by building partnerships with leading institutions to address the challenges facing the export credit sector. It also aligns with the bank's goal of developing the export of national products and services through partnerships with national and international financial and funding organizations.
Berne Union works with global trade organizations to encourage the adoption of best practices in export credit insurance, and to cooperate in maintaining the stability of global trade.
Saudi EXIM, a development bank under the National Development Fund, contributes to diversifying the Kingdom's economic base by improving the efficiency of non-oil export ecosystems, bridging financial gaps, and minimizing export risks. This plays a role in helping the non-oil national economy grow, in line with Vision 2030.