World Bank: Lebanon Crisis Among World's Worst Since 1850s

Anti-government demonstrators block the street with burning garbage dumpsters in front of Lebanon's central bank in this file picture taken on March 16, 2021 - AFP
Anti-government demonstrators block the street with burning garbage dumpsters in front of Lebanon's central bank in this file picture taken on March 16, 2021 - AFP
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World Bank: Lebanon Crisis Among World's Worst Since 1850s

Anti-government demonstrators block the street with burning garbage dumpsters in front of Lebanon's central bank in this file picture taken on March 16, 2021 - AFP
Anti-government demonstrators block the street with burning garbage dumpsters in front of Lebanon's central bank in this file picture taken on March 16, 2021 - AFP

Lebanon's economic collapse is likely to rank among the world's worst financial crises since the mid-19th century, the World Bank said in a damning report released Tuesday.

The report predicts that Lebanon's economy will shrink by close to 10 percent in 2021 and stresses there is "no clear turning point in the horizon".

Lebanon defaulted on its debt last year, the currency lost around 85 percent of its value and poverty is devastating a country once seen as a beacon of prosperity in the region, AFP reported.

"The economic and financial crisis is likely to rank in the top 10, possibly top 3, most severe crisis episodes globally since the mid-nineteenth century," the report said.

The latest World Bank Lebanon Economic Monitor report, entitled "Lebanon Sinking: To the Top 3", said such brutal economic collapses are usually the result of war.

The complete meltdown of Lebanon's economy during the past 18 months is widely blamed on corruption and mismanagement by the country's hereditary political elite.

"Policy responses by Lebanon's leadership to these challenges have been highly inadequate," the report says.

Lebanon's ruling class has failed to act on the country's worst emergency in a generation, which was compounded by the coronavirus pandemic and a devastating explosion at Beirut port last August.

"The increasingly dire socio-economic conditions risk systemic national failings with regional and potentially global effects," the World Bank said.

The International Monetary Fund has offered assistance but the country's political barons have failed to even form a government that could deliver the reforms on which foreign aid is conditioned.

- 'Social unrest' -

"Subject to extraordinarily high uncertainty, real GDP is projected to contract by a further 9.5 percent in 2021," said the World Bank, dashing any hopes of a quick recovery.

According to the monetary institution, the economy contracted by 6.7 percent in 2019 and 20.3 percent in 2020.

The solutions the Lebanese authorities have so far opted for to ease the financial crisis have placed much of the burden on small depositors.

The report warned of "potential triggers to social unrest" in a country with a history of conflict and instability.

"The increasingly dire socio-economic conditions risk systemic national failings with regional and potentially global effects," it said.

The bankrupt state is unable to settle many of its bills and Lebanon's own energy minister, Raymond Ghajar, has warned that electricity supply was becoming critical and that the country could be plunged into total darkness by June's end.

"The sharp deterioration in basic services would have long-term implications: mass migration, loss of learning, poor health outcomes, lack of adequate safety nets, among others," the report said.

"Permanent damage to human capital would be very hard to recover," said the World Bank Lebanon Economic Monitor, whose previous report was entitled "The Deliberate Depression".

"Perhaps this dimension of the Lebanese crisis makes the Lebanon episode unique compared to other global crises," it said.

Some teachers in Lebanon are now earning the equivalent of less than $200 monthly, doctors are increasingly looking for work abroad and many students can no longer afford university tuition.



Japan PM Reassures Markets with Fiscal Discipline in Next Year’s Budget

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers a speech at the 14th Council Meeting of the Japan Business Federation, or Keidanren, in Tokyo on December 25, 2025. (AFP)
Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers a speech at the 14th Council Meeting of the Japan Business Federation, or Keidanren, in Tokyo on December 25, 2025. (AFP)
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Japan PM Reassures Markets with Fiscal Discipline in Next Year’s Budget

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers a speech at the 14th Council Meeting of the Japan Business Federation, or Keidanren, in Tokyo on December 25, 2025. (AFP)
Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers a speech at the 14th Council Meeting of the Japan Business Federation, or Keidanren, in Tokyo on December 25, 2025. (AFP)

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi sought on Thursday to ease market concerns over her expansionary fiscal policy, saying the government's draft budget maintains discipline by limiting reliance on debt.

There has been growing investor unease about fiscal expansion under Takaichi's administration, which has driven super-long government bond yields to record highs and weighed on the yen.

The budget for the year starting in April, to be finalized on Friday and submitted to parliament early in 2026, ‌will total 122.3 trillion ‌yen ($785.4 billion), Takaichi told ruling coalition executives.

The huge ‌spending ⁠will come ‌on top of a 21.3 trillion-yen stimulus package, compiled in November and funded by a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year, that focused on cushioning the blow to households from rising living costs.

Despite the record size, new government bond issuance for the next fiscal year will be capped at 29.6 trillion yen, staying below 30 trillion yen for a second straight year, ⁠she said.

The reliance on debt will fall to 24.2% from 24.9% in the initial fiscal 2025 ‌budget, which dipped below 30% for the ‍first time in 27 years, she said. ‍The 24.2% debt dependence ratio would be the lowest since 1998.

"We ‍believe this draft budget strikes a balance between fiscal discipline and achieving a strong economy while ensuring fiscal sustainability," Takaichi said.

In a separate speech at Japanese business lobby Keidanren, Takaichi said that her "responsible, proactive" fiscal policy means strategic spending with a long-term perspective.

"It does not mean expanding expenditures indiscriminately based solely on scale," she said.

In a report to clients, Yusuke Matsuo, ⁠Mizuho Securities' senior market economist, said Takaichi would still need to promote proactive fiscal spending to avoid alienating her political base. He added that financial markets could be reassured if the government sticks to a less aggressive stance on spending.

Signaling a shift in the government's reflationary policy push, private-sector members of a government panel on Thursday called on the government to clearly show the public how the debt-to-gross domestic product ratio can be steadily reduced under Takaichi's government.

The four private-sector members include former Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe and economist Toshihiro Nagahama - known as reflationist aides of Takaichi.

Their proposals were discussed at ‌the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy (CEFP), which oversees Japan's fiscal blueprint and long-term economic policies.


Asian Shares are Mixed after US Stocks Drift to More Records

Currency dealers monitor exchange rates as a screen (R) shows South Korea's benchmark stock index in a foreign exchange dealing room at the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on November 5, 2025. (Photo by Jung Yeon-je / AFP)
Currency dealers monitor exchange rates as a screen (R) shows South Korea's benchmark stock index in a foreign exchange dealing room at the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on November 5, 2025. (Photo by Jung Yeon-je / AFP)
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Asian Shares are Mixed after US Stocks Drift to More Records

Currency dealers monitor exchange rates as a screen (R) shows South Korea's benchmark stock index in a foreign exchange dealing room at the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on November 5, 2025. (Photo by Jung Yeon-je / AFP)
Currency dealers monitor exchange rates as a screen (R) shows South Korea's benchmark stock index in a foreign exchange dealing room at the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on November 5, 2025. (Photo by Jung Yeon-je / AFP)

Asian shares were mixed Thursday in thin holiday trading, with most markets in the region and elsewhere closed for Christmas.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 edged 0.1% higher to 50,407.79. It has gained nearly 30% this year.

The dollar slipped to 155.85 Japanese yen from 155.94 yen. The euro climbed to $1.1786 from $1.1780.

Markets in mainland China advanced, with the Shanghai Composite index up 0.5% at 3,959.62. Hong Kong's exchange was closed, The Associated Press said.

Investors were encouraged by a statement by the People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank, promising to ensure adequate money supply to support financing, economic growth and inflation targets. Earlier in the week, the PBOC had opted to keep its key short-term lending rates unchanged.

Shares fell in Thailand and Indonesia.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 6,932.05 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.6% to close at 48,731.16. The Nasdaq composite added 0.2% to 23,613.31

Trading was extremely light as markets closed early for Christmas Eve and will be closed for Christmas on Thursday. US markets will reopen for a full day of trading on Friday, though volumes will likely remain light this week with most investors having closed out their positions for the year.

The S&P 500 is up more than 17% this year, as investors have embraced the deregulatory policies of the Trump administration and been optimistic about the future of artificial intelligence in helping boost profits for not only technology companies but also for Corporate America.

Much of the focus for investors for the next few weeks will be on where the US economy is heading and where the Federal Reserve will move interest rates. Investors are betting the Fed will hold steady on interest rates at its January meeting.

The US economy grew at a surprisingly strong 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter, the most rapid expansion in two years, driven by consumers who continue to spend despite strong inflation. There have also been recent reports showing shaky confidence among consumers worried about high prices. The labor market has been slowing and retail sales have weakened.

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell last week and remain at historically healthy levels despite some signs that the labor market is weakening.

US applications for jobless claims for the week ending Dec. 20 fell by 10,000 to 214,000 from the previous week’s 224,000, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. That’s below the 232,000 new applications forecast of analysts surveyed by the data firm FactSet.

Dynavax Technologies soared 38.2% after Sanofi said it was acquiring the California-based vaccine maker in a deal worth $2.2 billion. The French drugmaker will add Dynavax’s hepatitis B vaccines to its portfolio, as well as a shingles vaccine that is still in development.

Novo Nordisk's shares rose 1.8% after the weight-loss drug company got approval from US regulators for a pill version of its blockbuster drug Wegovy. However, Novo Nordisk shares are still down almost 40% this year as the company has faced increased competition for weight-loss medications, particularly from Eli Lilly. Shares of Eli Lilly are up 40% this year.

US crude oil closed at $58.35 a barrel and Brent crude finished at $61.80 a barrel.


Saudi PIF Backs Multibillion-Dollar Projects to Boost Sustainability

A solar power project in Saudi Arabia (SPA)
A solar power project in Saudi Arabia (SPA)
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Saudi PIF Backs Multibillion-Dollar Projects to Boost Sustainability

A solar power project in Saudi Arabia (SPA)
A solar power project in Saudi Arabia (SPA)

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has fully allocated the proceeds of its green bond issuance, directing $9 billion to eligible projects, in a move that highlights the sovereign wealth fund’s growing role in shaping a more sustainable future and delivering lasting positive impact worldwide.

According to a recent report issued by the Public Investment Fund, reviewed by Asharq Al-Awsat, the expected impact of the fund’s eligible green projects includes generating 427 megawatts of renewable energy, avoiding emissions equivalent to 5.1 million tons of carbon dioxide, and treating 4 million cubic meters of wastewater.

The Public Investment Fund aims to establish itself as an active participant in global debt markets, while also fostering the development of a dynamic domestic market. This would enable the fund to access short- or long-term liquidity through a diverse range of financing instruments.

Financing strategy

The fund’s capital markets program aims to further strengthen its financing strategy and execution capabilities, both at the level of the Saudi sovereign wealth fund and across its portfolio companies, while enabling deeper engagement with global and local debt markets.

The program will also support expanding the fund’s capacity to raise debt and deploy it as a source of investment financing, in line with its overall funding strategy. This approach is designed to instill greater discipline in cash flow management and enhance returns on equity for the fund and its portfolio companies.

The green bond issuance will provide the fund with access to a broader pool of investors who prioritize environmental, social, and governance considerations in their investment decisions. It will also allow investors to diversify their portfolios through green assets, a step expected to help accelerate the pace of green investment globally.

Climate change

The fund has taken concrete steps to advance governance and policy, focusing on sustainability, and is a founding member of the One Planet Sovereign Wealth Funds initiative. This international platform aims to accelerate the integration of climate change considerations into asset management decisions and investment opportunities.

As an investment vehicle, the Public Investment Fund operates through acquiring stakes in companies aligned with its mandate, including ACWA Power and Lucid.

It has also established the Saudi Investment Recycling Company, a leader in waste management and recycling, manages the National Energy Services Company, Tarshid, and supports the creation of a voluntary carbon market in the Middle East and North Africa.

These efforts aim to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s position as one of the world’s most energy-efficient countries.

The green bond issuance will finance tangible projects on the ground, helping to accelerate the green transition and advance the Kingdom’s core targets of achieving net zero emissions by 2060 and generating 50 percent of electricity consumption from renewable energy sources by 2030.

This forms a key pillar of the renewable energy program implemented by the fund, which involves developing 70 percent of renewable power generation capacity.