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Ethiopian Military Buildup around Renaissance Dam

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) (DPA)
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) (DPA)
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Ethiopian Military Buildup around Renaissance Dam

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) (DPA)
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) (DPA)

Ethiopia has stepped up army deployment near the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), setting off the alarm on tensions rising between the African state on the one hand and Egypt and Sudan on the other.

For its part, Cairo voiced deep rejection of any unilateral action undertaken by Addis Ababa before the signing of a comprehensive agreement on filling and operating the GERD.

In grave disregard of the need for a tripartite deal with Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopia insists on filling the dam over the upcoming wet season, which will occur over the next few weeks.

This has spurred substantial anxiety within the other two North African states over securing their share from Nile waters. Both Sudan and Egypt are arguing that Ethiopia is arbitrarily choosing to foil decade-old negotiations.

“Ethiopian Air Force reinforcements around the Renaissance Dam are stronger than ever,” said Ethiopian Air Force (EAF) Commander Yilma Merdasa, according to a press release posted by the state-run news agency on Facebook.

“The Air Force is closely guarding the Renaissance Dam and pledges to protect it from any aggression,” Merdasa asserted at an EAF award ceremony that saw a number of badges and military ranks accorded to members of the force.

“Any attempts to destabilize the country and spread chaos internally and externally will not succeed,” he confirmed, pointing out that the army protects national sovereignty and looks forward to fully serving the country by defending the GERD against any aggression.

Also, Merdasa revealed that the EAF possesses a sophisticated and striking power in surveying activities conducted in the airspace above the GERD.

“No aircraft without a permit is allowed to approach this area,” he confirmed.

So far, negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan have failed to reach a consensus over the dam.

Egypt has not officially announced its intention to launch a military strike on the GERD, but a war of words was unleashed between the three countries. On social media, many Egyptians are calling for a military intervention to dissuade Ethiopia from its plan.

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Arab World

4 US Service Members Killed in Plane Crash Over Iraq

(FILES) A US Air Force Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker aerial-refuelling aircraft flies over Tel Aviv on March 4, 2026. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP)
(FILES) A US Air Force Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker aerial-refuelling aircraft flies over Tel Aviv on March 4, 2026. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP)
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4 US Service Members Killed in Plane Crash Over Iraq

(FILES) A US Air Force Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker aerial-refuelling aircraft flies over Tel Aviv on March 4, 2026. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP)
(FILES) A US Air Force Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker aerial-refuelling aircraft flies over Tel Aviv on March 4, 2026. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP)

Four of the six crew members aboard a US military aircraft that crashed in western Iraq are confirmed to have been killed, the US military said on Friday, ⁠as rescue efforts ⁠continued for the remaining two.

A US military refueling aircraft crashed in western ⁠Iraq on Thursday, in an incident the military said involved another aircraft but was not the result of hostile or friendly fire.

"The circumstances of the incident are ⁠under ⁠investigation. However, the loss of the aircraft was not due to hostile fire or friendly fire," a statement from US Central Command said.

The plane was taking part in the operation against Iran.

Both President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have warned that the Iran war would likely claim more American lives before it ends.

Arab World

Iran War Raises Concerns Over Impact on Suez Canal Traffic

A ship transits the Suez Canal last month (Suez Canal Authority). 
A ship transits the Suez Canal last month (Suez Canal Authority). 
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Iran War Raises Concerns Over Impact on Suez Canal Traffic

A ship transits the Suez Canal last month (Suez Canal Authority). 
A ship transits the Suez Canal last month (Suez Canal Authority). 

The Iran war has sparked growing concern in Egypt over its potential impact on navigation through the Suez Canal, one of the country’s most important sources of national income. Experts say the conflict has already begun affecting traffic through the strategic waterway as security risks for ships increase.

Recent reports indicate that several major global shipping companies—including Denmark’s Maersk, France’s CMA CGM, and Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd—have suspended the transit of some vessels through the canal.

The head of the Suez Canal Authority, Admiral Osama Rabie, expressed hope that regional stability would return soon, warning that escalating tensions could have serious repercussions for maritime transport and global supply chains.

In a statement issued Thursday, Rabie said the authority has moved to upgrade its maritime and navigational services and introduce new activities designed to meet customer needs in both normal and emergency circumstances. These include ship maintenance and repair services, maritime rescue operations and marine ambulance services, alongside continued modernization of the authority’s fleet of marine units.

Early impact on canal traffic

International transport expert Osama Aqil said the war’s effect on the canal had been evident since the first days of the conflict.

“Current indicators show that canal traffic has declined by about 50 percent since the war began,” Aqil told Asharq Al-Awsat. He attributed the drop to rising security risks and higher insurance premiums imposed on vessels passing through the region.

Aqil warned that the impact could deepen if the conflict drags on. Even after hostilities end, he said, it may take considerable time for shipping traffic to return to normal.

“International shipping groups that divert their vessels to the Cape of Good Hope route will likely sign contracts for the alternative passage,” he said. “Ending those arrangements and redirecting ships back through the canal will take time.”

Before the latest tensions, the Suez Canal had been showing signs of recovery following an earlier setback caused by Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea linked to the war in Gaza.

In January, the Suez Canal Authority said navigation statistics showed a “noticeable improvement” during the first half of the 2025–2026 fiscal year. Rabie said at the time that indicators pointed to improving revenues as some shipping lines resumed using the canal after conditions stabilized in the Red Sea.

Wider threat to global trade

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has also warned about the impact of regional tensions on shipping in the Red Sea. During a meeting in Cairo earlier this month with Ajay Banga, president of the World Bank Group, Sisi said Egypt had lost roughly $10 billion in Suez Canal revenues due to the Gaza war, according to the Egyptian presidency.

Aqil said the Iran war could affect not only the canal but global trade more broadly, which he said has already shown signs of slowing.

“If the conflict continues, transport costs will rise, which will push up prices for many goods and commodities,” he stated.

Suez Canal revenues dropped sharply in 2024, falling 61 percent to $3.9 billion, compared with about $10.2 billion in 2023.

Security risk management expert Major General Ihab Youssef noted that the continuation of the war poses a threat to global navigation, not only to the Suez Canal.

Egypt secures ships along the canal and up to the limits of its territorial waters, he remarked. However, vessels traveling to and from the waterway must still pass through areas affected by military operations in the Gulf region and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, prompting many shipping companies to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope.

“Any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would further increase the risks of transit, particularly if the war is prolonged,” Youssef said.

 

 

Arab World

Australia Orders All 'Non-essential' Officials to Leave Lebanon

A plume of smoke billows following reported Israeli strikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut, after an escalation between Hezbollah and Israel, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, Lebanon, March 13, 2026. (Reuters)
A plume of smoke billows following reported Israeli strikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut, after an escalation between Hezbollah and Israel, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, Lebanon, March 13, 2026. (Reuters)
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Australia Orders All 'Non-essential' Officials to Leave Lebanon

A plume of smoke billows following reported Israeli strikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut, after an escalation between Hezbollah and Israel, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, Lebanon, March 13, 2026. (Reuters)
A plume of smoke billows following reported Israeli strikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut, after an escalation between Hezbollah and Israel, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, Lebanon, March 13, 2026. (Reuters)

Australia has ordered all non-essential officials in Lebanon to leave, Canberra's foreign minister said Friday, after issuing the same command to diplomats in Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

In a post on X, top diplomat Penny Wong said they had been ordered to depart due to the "deteriorating security situation", AFP said.

"Essential Australian officials will remain in-country to support Australians who need it," she added.

The warning came hours after Canberra issued the same order to officials in Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

Canberra has said there are about 115,000 Australian nationals across the Middle East, of whom about 2,600 have returned home.

"We urge Australians in the Middle East to leave if you can and if it's safe to do so," Wong said.

"Don't wait until it's too late. It may be the last chance for some time."

The United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28 that killed its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and triggered a war in the Middle East.

Iran has responded with drone and missile strikes targeting Israel as well as Gulf states like the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar.

Officials said 14 people had been killed in Israel since the start of the Iran war.

Inside Iran, its health ministry said this week that more than 1,200 people have been killed.

Hundreds more people have died in Lebanon.

Australia backed the US-Israeli strikes as necessary to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

And Canberra said this week it would deploy a long-range military reconnaissance plane to the Gulf to protect civilians.