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Ethiopian Military Buildup around Renaissance Dam

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) (DPA)
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) (DPA)
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Ethiopian Military Buildup around Renaissance Dam

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) (DPA)
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) (DPA)

Ethiopia has stepped up army deployment near the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), setting off the alarm on tensions rising between the African state on the one hand and Egypt and Sudan on the other.

For its part, Cairo voiced deep rejection of any unilateral action undertaken by Addis Ababa before the signing of a comprehensive agreement on filling and operating the GERD.

In grave disregard of the need for a tripartite deal with Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopia insists on filling the dam over the upcoming wet season, which will occur over the next few weeks.

This has spurred substantial anxiety within the other two North African states over securing their share from Nile waters. Both Sudan and Egypt are arguing that Ethiopia is arbitrarily choosing to foil decade-old negotiations.

“Ethiopian Air Force reinforcements around the Renaissance Dam are stronger than ever,” said Ethiopian Air Force (EAF) Commander Yilma Merdasa, according to a press release posted by the state-run news agency on Facebook.

“The Air Force is closely guarding the Renaissance Dam and pledges to protect it from any aggression,” Merdasa asserted at an EAF award ceremony that saw a number of badges and military ranks accorded to members of the force.

“Any attempts to destabilize the country and spread chaos internally and externally will not succeed,” he confirmed, pointing out that the army protects national sovereignty and looks forward to fully serving the country by defending the GERD against any aggression.

Also, Merdasa revealed that the EAF possesses a sophisticated and striking power in surveying activities conducted in the airspace above the GERD.

“No aircraft without a permit is allowed to approach this area,” he confirmed.

So far, negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan have failed to reach a consensus over the dam.

Egypt has not officially announced its intention to launch a military strike on the GERD, but a war of words was unleashed between the three countries. On social media, many Egyptians are calling for a military intervention to dissuade Ethiopia from its plan.

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Türkiye Backing Syria’s Military and Has No Immediate Withdrawal Plans, Defense Minister Says 

Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler attends a signing ceremony of a memorandum of understanding on establishing a mine countermeasures naval group in the Black Sea, aimed at clearing mines floating there as a result of the war in Ukraine, in Istanbul, Türkiye, January 11, 2024. (Reuters)
Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler attends a signing ceremony of a memorandum of understanding on establishing a mine countermeasures naval group in the Black Sea, aimed at clearing mines floating there as a result of the war in Ukraine, in Istanbul, Türkiye, January 11, 2024. (Reuters)
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Türkiye Backing Syria’s Military and Has No Immediate Withdrawal Plans, Defense Minister Says 

Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler attends a signing ceremony of a memorandum of understanding on establishing a mine countermeasures naval group in the Black Sea, aimed at clearing mines floating there as a result of the war in Ukraine, in Istanbul, Türkiye, January 11, 2024. (Reuters)
Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler attends a signing ceremony of a memorandum of understanding on establishing a mine countermeasures naval group in the Black Sea, aimed at clearing mines floating there as a result of the war in Ukraine, in Istanbul, Türkiye, January 11, 2024. (Reuters)

Türkiye is training and advising Syria's armed forces and helping improve its defenses, and has no immediate plans for the withdrawal or relocation of its troops stationed there, Defense Minister Yasar Guler told Reuters.

Türkiye has emerged as a key foreign ally of Syria's new government since opposition groups - some of them backed for years by Ankara - ousted former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December to end his family's five-decade rule.

It has promised to help rebuild neighboring Syria and facilitate the return of millions of Syrian civil war refugees, and played a key role last month getting US and European sanctions on Syria lifted.

The newfound Turkish influence in Damascus has raised Israeli concerns and risked a standoff or worse in Syria between the regional powers.

In written answers to questions from Reuters, Guler said Türkiye and Israel, which carried out its latest airstrikes on southern Syria late on Tuesday, are continuing de-confliction talks to avoid military accidents in the country.

Türkiye’s overall priority in Syria is preserving its territorial integrity and unity, and ridding it of terrorism, he said, adding Ankara was supporting Damascus in these efforts.

"We have started providing military training and consultancy services, while taking steps to increase Syria's defense capacity," Guler said, without elaborating on those steps.

Named to the post by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan two years ago, Guler said it was too early to discuss possible withdrawal or relocation of the more than 20,000 Turkish troops in Syria.

Ankara controlled swathes of northern Syria and established dozens of bases there after several cross-border operations in recent years against Kurdish militants it deems terrorists.

This can "only be re-evaluated when Syria achieves peace and stability, when the threat of terrorism in the region is fully removed, when our border security is fully ensured, and when the honorable return of people who had to flee is done," he said.

NATO member Türkiye has accused Israel of undermining Syrian peace and rebuilding with its military operations there in recent months and, since late 2023, has also fiercely criticized Israel's assault on Gaza.

But the two regional powers have been quietly working to establish a de-confliction mechanism in Syria.

Guler described the talks as "technical level meetings to establish a de-confliction mechanism to prevent unwanted events" or direct conflict, as well as "a communication and coordination structure".

"Our efforts to form this line and make it fully operational continue. Yet it should not be forgotten that the de-confliction mechanism is not a normalization," he told Reuters.