Iraq: Shiite Factions Scramble to Win Parliamentary Majority After Withdrawal of Sadrist Movement

Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr on a billboard in Baghdad’s Sadr City district, June 21, 2021. REUTERS/Ahmed Saad
Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr on a billboard in Baghdad’s Sadr City district, June 21, 2021. REUTERS/Ahmed Saad
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Iraq: Shiite Factions Scramble to Win Parliamentary Majority After Withdrawal of Sadrist Movement

Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr on a billboard in Baghdad’s Sadr City district, June 21, 2021. REUTERS/Ahmed Saad
Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr on a billboard in Baghdad’s Sadr City district, June 21, 2021. REUTERS/Ahmed Saad

An announcement made by Moqtada al-Sadr that he won’t run in Iraq’s parliamentary elections has increased the chances of those seeking to postpone the early polls scheduled for Oct. 10 to their constitutional date in April 2022.

Sadr’s Sairoon bloc is the biggest in the Iraqi parliament with 54 out of 329 seats.

Several other prominent factions and parties have recently announced their rejection to run in the elections, including the Iraqi Communist Party, the Iraqi Forum Movement led by Ayad Allawi, the National Dialogue Front led by Saleh al-Mutlaq, the Iraqi Republican Gathering of Saad Asim al-Janabi, and others.

A well-informed Iraqi politician told Asharq Al-Awsat that the priority was now to hold the elections in October.

Setting this date was part of the commitment made by Prime Minister Mustafa to hold early elections, deal with the foreign presence in Iraq, reveal the killers of demonstrators during protests that erupted in 2019, as well as address the economic crisis and confronting the Covid-19 pandemic, said the politician.

The Iraqi premier has now set an early date for the elections, achieved progress in the assassinations case, and reached an agreement over the withdrawal of the US combat forces in Iraq by the end of the year.

While none of the Shiite factions and parties have announced their support or rejection of Sadr’s position, the surprise came from the leader of the State of Law Coalition, Nuri al-Maliki, Sadr’s most prominent opponent.

In a statement on Thursday, Maliki announced that the parliamentary elections would not be postponed and would take place on time. He also declared his rejection of an “emergency government because it means a rebellion against democracy and the principles of parliamentary transfer of power.”



Israel Pounds Central Beirut, Suburbs after Major Evacuation Warnings

A damaged building is pictured through the wreckage of a vehicle, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, Lebanon November 26, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammed Yassin
A damaged building is pictured through the wreckage of a vehicle, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, Lebanon November 26, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammed Yassin
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Israel Pounds Central Beirut, Suburbs after Major Evacuation Warnings

A damaged building is pictured through the wreckage of a vehicle, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, Lebanon November 26, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammed Yassin
A damaged building is pictured through the wreckage of a vehicle, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, Lebanon November 26, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammed Yassin

Israel mounted waves of pounding airstrikes in Beirut on Tuesday as its security cabinet discussed a ceasefire deal in Lebanon with its Hezbollah foes that could take effect as soon as Wednesday.

A senior Israeli official and Lebanese caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib appeared optimistic a deal could be reached, clearing the way for an end to a conflict that has killed thousands of people since it was ignited by the Gaza war last year.

Despite the possibility of an imminent diplomatic breakthrough, hostilities raged as Israel sharply ramped up its campaign of air strikes in Beirut and other parts of Lebanon, with health authorities reporting at least 18 killed.

Israeli warplanes launched repeated strikes across Beirut throughout Tuesday, mostly in the southern suburbs that are a stronghold for Iran-backed Hezbollah.

A single cluster of strikes in Beirut that Israel's military said included attacks on 20 targets in just 120 seconds killed at least seven people and injured 37, Lebanon's health ministry said.

Israel also gave advance notice for the first time of strikes in the central Beirut area, a significant escalation of its campaign in the capital that sparked panic among residents with some fleeing north.

Strikes also targeted Tyre, in the south, and Baalbek, in the east.

Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee said the air force was conducting a "widespread attack" on Hezbollah targets across the city.

Hezbollah has kept up rocket fire into Israel and has previously said it would respond to attacks on central Beirut by firing rockets at Tel Aviv. Sirens sounded in northern Israel and the Israeli military said five projectiles were identified coming from Lebanon.

Hezbollah launched some 250 rockets on Sunday in one of its heaviest barrages yet. The northern Israeli city of Nahariya came under more rocket fire overnight.

‘Dangerous hours’

A Hezbollah parliament member in Lebanon, Hassan Fadlallah, said the country faced "dangerous, sensitive hours" during the wait for a possible ceasefire announcement.

With Israel's security cabinet meeting to discuss the deal, which a senior Israeli official had said was likely to be approved, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said he would speak on Tuesday evening at 8 pm (1800 GMT). A government official said the cabinet meeting had started.

Israeli approval of the deal would pave the way for a ceasefire declaration by US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, four senior Lebanese sources told Reuters on Monday.

The ceasefire could come into effect on Wednesday morning, triggering a 60-day truce, a Western diplomat said.

However, there was no indication that a truce in Lebanon would hasten a ceasefire and hostage-release deal in devastated Gaza, where Israel is battling Palestinian group Hamas.

The agreement requires Israeli troops to withdraw from south Lebanon and Lebanon's army to deploy in the region, officials say. Hezbollah would end its armed presence along the border south of the Litani River.

Bou Habib said the Lebanese army would be ready to have at least 5,000 troops deployed in southern Lebanon as Israeli troops withdraw, and that the United States could play a role in rebuilding infrastructure destroyed by Israeli strikes.

Israel demands effective UN enforcement of an eventual ceasefire with Lebanon and will show "zero tolerance" toward any infraction, Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Tuesday.