Israel Seeks to Coordinate 'Plan B' with US on Iran

Bushehr nuclear facility, in south Iran (AFP)
Bushehr nuclear facility, in south Iran (AFP)
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Israel Seeks to Coordinate 'Plan B' with US on Iran

Bushehr nuclear facility, in south Iran (AFP)
Bushehr nuclear facility, in south Iran (AFP)

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett told CIA Director Bill Burns in a meeting on Wednesday that the US and Israel should start working on a joint strategy for a scenario in which Iran elects not to return to the 2015 nuclear deal, according to Israeli officials.

The issue was the focus of Burns' talks in Israel with Bennett, President Isaac Herzog, Minister of Defense Benny Gantz, and Mossad director David Barnea.

At the meeting, the Israeli intelligence community, foreign ministry, and other national security agencies think the likelihood of Iran deciding to return to the deal has waned in recent weeks after the election of new hardline President Ebrahim Raisi.

During the meeting, Bennett presented Burns with his assessment of and policy toward Iran. Israeli officials said their impression was that Burns was also skeptical about whether Iran was ready to return to full compliance with the deal.

The Israeli government is concerned that the US and other Western powers won't push back hard as Iran moves ahead with its nuclear program.

The Biden administration is still seeking a path back to the 2015 deal, but the talks are on hold as the new Iranian administration takes office.

On the eve of his meeting with Burns, Gantz said that Iran is the greatest threat to the stability of the world and the region alike and called on all countries to curb Iranian aggression.

Haaretz newspaper quoted officials saying that Israel tried to ensure that the US administration is ready to enlist the international community for a campaign of pressure against Iran in the event of not signing the agreement.

The newspaper quoted Israeli officials saying that an attempt was recently made to ensure that Washington can implement its plan by reaching a more stringent agreement and forcing Tehran to sign it.

They said that such a step requires directing a clear and tangible US military threat and imposing more severe economic and diplomatic sanctions, which isolates Iran.

According to an informed source, Israeli officials briefed Burns on intelligence reports that included data indicating significant progress in the Iranian nuclear program in the recent period.

Iran has exceeded the commitments stipulated in the 2015 nuclear agreement, which allowed Tehran to enrich uranium to a level of 3.67 percent and collect up to 300 kilograms.

According to Israeli estimates, Iran is now in possession of 10 kilograms of uranium enriched at a level of 60 percent, 140 kilograms enriched at 20 percent, and 2,500 kilograms enriched at 4 percent.

Iran uses hundreds of advanced centrifuges, although the original nuclear agreement forbids this, and that uranium enrichment takes place at the Fordo facility, contrary to the agreement, at a level of 20 percent.

Israel estimates that Iran is about two months away from becoming a nuclear state and resuming the treaty with the world powers would delay it by about four years.

"There is a strategic difference between Israel's approach and that of the US administration," explained an Israeli source.

The same source added: "Even if Israel does not declare it officially, our goal is to reach an agreement that will block the way or prevent Iran from achieving military nuclear capabilities. Israel is in favor of a deal. It is opposed to a bad deal."



Foreign Ministers Meet in Italy for G7 Talks on Ukraine, Middle East

Security stand guard ahead of the G7 Foreign Ministers meeting in Anagni, Lazio Region, Italy, 24 November 2024. (EPA)
Security stand guard ahead of the G7 Foreign Ministers meeting in Anagni, Lazio Region, Italy, 24 November 2024. (EPA)
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Foreign Ministers Meet in Italy for G7 Talks on Ukraine, Middle East

Security stand guard ahead of the G7 Foreign Ministers meeting in Anagni, Lazio Region, Italy, 24 November 2024. (EPA)
Security stand guard ahead of the G7 Foreign Ministers meeting in Anagni, Lazio Region, Italy, 24 November 2024. (EPA)

Foreign ministers from the world’s leading industrialized nations are meeting Monday, with the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East entering decisive phases and a certain pressure to advance diplomatic efforts ahead of the new US administration taking over.

Hopes for brokering a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon are foremost on the agenda of the Group of Seven meeting outside Rome that is gathering ministers from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.

On the first day of the two-day gathering Monday, the G7 will be joined by ministers from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, as well as the Secretary General of the Arab League.

“With partners will be discussed ways to support efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, initiatives to support the population and the promotion of a credible political horizon for stability in the region,” the Italian foreign ministry said.

The so-called “Quint” grouping of the US, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and the UAE has been working to finalize a “day after” plan for Gaza, and there is some urgency to make progress before the Trump administration takes over in January. President-elect Donald Trump is expected to pursue a policy that strongly favors Israel over the aspirations of the Palestinians.

Host Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani added another item to the G7 agenda last week after the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his former defense minister and Hamas’ military chief.

Italy is a founding member of the court and hosted the 1998 Rome conference that gave birth to it. But Italy’s right-wing government has been a strong supporter of Israel after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks, while also providing humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza.

The Italian government has taken a cautious line, reaffirming its support and respect for the court but expressing concern that the warrants were politically motivated.

“There can be no equivalence between the responsibilities of the state of Israel and the terrorist organization of Hamas,” Premier Giorgia Meloni said, echoing the statement from US President Joe Biden.

Nathalie Tocci, director of the Rome-based Institute for International Affairs think tank, said Italy would be seeking to forge a united front on the ICC warrants, at least among the six G7 countries that are signatories of the court: everyone but the US.

But in an essay this weekend in La Stampa newspaper, Tocci warned it was a risky move, since the US tends to dictate the G7 line and has blasted the ICC warrants against Netanyahu as “outrageous.”

“If Italy and the other (five G7) signatories of the ICC are unable to maintain the line on international law, they will not only erode it anyway but will be acting against our interests,” Tocci wrote, recalling Italy’s recourse to international law in demanding protection for Italian UN peacekeepers who have come under fire in southern Lebanon.

The other major talking point of the G7 meeting is Ukraine, and tensions have only heightened since Russia attacked Ukraine last week with an experimental, hypersonic ballistic missile that escalated the nearly 33-month-old war.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha is expected at the G7 in Fiuggi on Tuesday, and NATO and Ukraine are to hold emergency talks the same day in Brussels.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the strike was retaliation for Kyiv’s use of US and British longer-range missiles capable of striking deeper into Russian territory.

The G7 has been at the forefront of providing military and economic support for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022 and G7 members are particularly concerned about how a Trump administration will change the US approach.

Trump has criticized the billions of dollars that the Biden administration has poured into Ukraine and has said he could end the war in 24 hours, comments that appear to suggest he would press Ukraine to surrender territory that Russia now occupies.

Italy is a strong supporter of Ukraine and has backed the US decision to allow Ukraine to strike Russia with US-made, longer-range missiles. But Italy has invoked the country’s constitutional repudiation of war in declining to provide Ukraine with offensive weaponry to strike inside Russia and limiting its aid to anti-air defense systems to protect Ukrainian civilians.

The G7 foreign ministers’ meeting, the second of the Italian presidency after ministers gathered in Capri in April, is being held in the medieval town of Fiuggi southeast of Rome, best known for its thermal spas.

On Monday, which coincides with the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women, ministers will attend the inauguration of a red bench meant to symbolize Italy’s focus on fighting gender-based violence.

Over the weekend, tens of thousands of people marched in Rome to protest gender-based violence, which in Italy so far this year has claimed the lives of 99 women, according to a report last week by the Eures think tank.