Will the Afghan President Take his Own Advice to Assad 9 Years Ago and Resign?

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. (Reuters)
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. (Reuters)
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Will the Afghan President Take his Own Advice to Assad 9 Years Ago and Resign?

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. (Reuters)
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. (Reuters)

Will Afghan President Ashraf Ghani take the advice he gave to Syrian President Bashar Assad nine years ago and apply it to himself to resign and prepare for a transitional period? Or will he attempt to emulate Assad and hold on to power without addressing what will come next for Afghanistan?

In October 2012, Ghani, then Chair of the Transition Commission in Afghanistan and Chairman of the Institute for State Effectiveness, and Clare Lockhart, co-founder and director of the Institute, released a report “Preparing for a Syrian Transition” that offered various scenarios for possible change in the country after nearly a year and half since the eruption of its anti-regime protests in 2011.

They offered broad recommendations to members of the international community and specified the issues related to the transition. Years earlier, Ghani and Lockhart had written a book entitled “Fixing Failed States: A Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World”.

Syria and Afghanistan share several factors. On the ground, they are suffering from networks of extremists and Islamists. Reports have said that several ISIS members had quit Syria to Afghanistan, which is viewed as the new hub for extremists and fighters from the Sham region. Moreover, several international and regional players, including the United States, Russia, Turkey and Iran, are embroiled in both Syria and Afghanistan.

On the diplomatic level, several western diplomatic have moved from tackling the Syrian file to tackling the Afghan one. Among them is British envoy Gareth Bayley and German envoy Andreas Kruger. Moreover, former Syrian prime minister Abdullah al-Dardari is the United Nations Development Program's Resident Representative in Kabul, Afghanistan. Lockhart is also close to American officials who have handled the Syrian file under the Donald Trump administration.

Ghani and Lockhart’s roadmap was released weeks after the announcement of the Geneva statement in late June 2012. The statement proposed the formation of a transitional ruling body with full executive power that would include representatives of the government and opposition.

The communique was issued after then US President Barack Obama and western officials had called on Assad to step down. Washington had even developed the “day after” agenda as part of its efforts to avoid the same mistakes it committed in Iraq.

Indeed, the roadmap belonged to the rhetoric that prevailed at the time in demanding that Assad’s regime be stripped of its legitimacy. It also spoke of how the regime had launched a violent offensive against the opposition that was determined to oust it. Experts and nations at the time were focused on drafting plans for the post-Assad period.

The transitional plans envisioned deriving lessons in peace building and the past. They also proposed the formation of a decentralized state and for the UN to act as an honest and credible mediator.

Years have gone by and Assad has remained power with the backing of his Russian and Iranian allies. Western countries have since changed their rhetoric. Syria itself has changed, becoming divided, weak and ill.

Years have gone by and Afghanistan has changed. Ghani himself became president, backed with the US-led coalition. The US is now withdrawing from Afghanistan, paving the way for Russia’s return after its Soviet defeat.

Ghani, however, has not changed his position on Syria. According to diplomats who have met him recently, he still remains committed to the ideas proposed in his report with Lockhart. He still supports political transition in Syria through a national framework and as part of a Syrian plan that does not greatly rely on foreign players. This national agenda ensures the interests of Assad loyalists after his departure.

People who have worked with Ghani over the Syrian file berate him for not taking the same advice he had offered Assad. They said that Ghani has not engaged in serious dialogue with the Taliban when the group was weak. Moreover, he opted to listen to the advice of foreign advisors, experts and forces when it came to politics, reconstruction and administration, in contrast to his suggestions on Syria.

Some analysts had urged Ghani to follow “Assad’s advice” to remain in power and suggested that he pursue foreign military, security, political steps and alliances.

One analyst said that he had following the developments in Syria since the beginning of its conflict, remarking that the government had developed an uncanny ability to survive, which is something that Ghani can learn from.



Iran-Israel War: A Lifeline for Netanyahu?

FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
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Iran-Israel War: A Lifeline for Netanyahu?

FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)

The Iran-Israel war has helped strengthen Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu domestically and overseas, just as his grip on power looked vulnerable.

On the eve of launching strikes on Iran, his government looked to be on the verge of collapse, with a drive to conscript ultra-Orthodox Jews threatening to scupper his fragile coalition.

Nearly two years on from Hamas's unprecedented attack in 2023, Netanyahu was under growing domestic criticism for his handling of the war in Gaza, where dozens of hostages remain unaccounted for, said AFP.

Internationally too, he was coming under pressure including from longstanding allies, who since the war with Iran began have gone back to expressing support.

Just days ago, polls were predicting Netanyahu would lose his majority if new elections were held, but now, his fortunes appear to have reversed, and Israelis are seeing in "Bibi" the man of the moment.

– 'Reshape the Middle East' –

For decades, Netanyahu has warned of the risk of a nuclear attack on Israel by Iran -- a fear shared by most Israelis.

Yonatan Freeman, a geopolitics expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said Netanyahu's argument that the pre-emptive strike on Iran was necessary draws "a lot of public support" and that the prime minister has been "greatly strengthened".

Even the opposition has rallied behind him.

"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is my political rival, but his decision to strike Iran at this moment in time is the right one," opposition leader Yair Lapid wrote in a Jerusalem Post op-ed.

A poll published Saturday by a conservative Israeli channel showed that 54 percent of respondents expressed confidence in the prime minister.

The public had had time to prepare for the possibility of an offensive against Iran, with Netanyahu repeatedly warning that Israel was fighting for its survival and had an opportunity to "reshape the Middle East."

During tit-for-tat military exchanges last year, Israel launched air raids on targets in Iran in October that are thought to have severely damaged Iranian air defenses.

Israel's then-defense minister Yoav Gallant said the strikes had shifted "the balance of power" and had "weakened" Iran.

"In fact, for the past 20 months, Israelis have been thinking about this (a war with Iran)," said Denis Charbit, a political scientist at Israel's Open University.

Since Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, Netanyahu has ordered military action in Gaza, against the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as targets in Syria where long-time leader Bashar al-Assad fell in December last year.

"Netanyahu always wants to dominate the agenda, to be the one who reshuffles the deck himself -- not the one who reacts -- and here he is clearly asserting his Churchillian side, which is, incidentally, his model," Charbit said.

"But depending on the outcome and the duration (of the war), everything could change, and Israelis might turn against Bibi and demand answers."

– Silencing critics –

For now, however, people in Israel see the conflict with Iran as a "necessary war," according to Nitzan Perelman, a researcher specialized in Israel at the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) in France.

"Public opinion supports this war, just as it has supported previous ones," she added.

"It's very useful for Netanyahu because it silences criticism, both inside the country and abroad."

In the weeks ahead of the Iran strikes, international criticism of Netanyahu and Israel's military had reached unprecedented levels.

After more than 55,000 deaths in Gaza, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory, and a blockade that has produced famine-like conditions there, Israel has faced growing isolation and the risk of sanctions, while Netanyahu himself is the subject of an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes.

But on Sunday, two days into the war with Iran, the Israeli leader received a phone call from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, while Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has held talks with numerous counterparts.

"There's more consensus in Europe in how they see Iran, which is more equal to how Israel sees Iran," explained Freeman from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Tuesday that Israel was doing "the dirty work... for all of us."

The idea that a weakened Iran could lead to regional peace and the emergence of a new Middle East is appealing to the United States and some European countries, according to Freeman.

But for Perelman, "Netanyahu is exploiting the Iranian threat, as he always has."