Passing through Syria without Engaging Damascus

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Jordan's King Abdullah II speak, during their meeting on the side of the International Military Technical Forum Army-2021 in Alabino, outside Moscow, Russia. (AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Jordan's King Abdullah II speak, during their meeting on the side of the International Military Technical Forum Army-2021 in Alabino, outside Moscow, Russia. (AP)
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Passing through Syria without Engaging Damascus

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Jordan's King Abdullah II speak, during their meeting on the side of the International Military Technical Forum Army-2021 in Alabino, outside Moscow, Russia. (AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Jordan's King Abdullah II speak, during their meeting on the side of the International Military Technical Forum Army-2021 in Alabino, outside Moscow, Russia. (AP)

Among the various issues tackled by CIA director William Burns in Beirut earlier this month was connecting power from Jordan to Lebanon through Syria.

The connection would effectively pass through Syria without politically engaging with Damascus.

Burns was not the first official to propose using Syria as a crossing point without actually dealing with Damascus.

The US has agreed to help Lebanon tackle its crippling electricity crisis in response to a proposal by Hezbollah to bring in fuel from Iran.

The American proposal was made at Jordan and Lebanon’s suggestion and through a mechanism that works around US sanctions and avoids criticism from Washington. The problem, however, lies with Syria itself.

Damascus needs gas and electricity for the greater Arab project to connect electricity from Egypt to Lebanon through Jordan and Syria. This project would also help Syria out of its own darkness.

Officials in Syria are seeking to exploit Lebanon and Jordan’s needs for two purposes: Extending gas and electricity to Syria at a cost and opening political channels of communication with Washington and Arab countries.

Washington is still wary of political dealings with Damascus. Dealing with the Syrian reality differs from “legitimizing the regime”. Extending power connections would be limited to energy, not extending a hand in politics. That is why Washington tasked Beirut and Amman to tackle technical and political obstacles with Damascus.

Burns had notably visited Beirut shortly after Jordan’s King Abdullah II had visited Washington for talks with President Joe Biden in July.

The monarch had proposed the formation of an international-regional “working group” that includes Russia to implement a joint “roadmap” for Syria. The roadmap would include a series of elements, starting from Washington’s position for the regime to change its behavior, rather than demand complete regime change. This should achieve stability in Syria and restore its sovereignty, ensure the withdrawal of foreign forces and militias and implement a political solution for the crisis.

King Abdullah’s next stop was Moscow where he held talks on Monday with President Vladimir Putin and hailed the Russian role in achieving stability in Syria.

The visit coincided with Russian-led negotiations on the ground to reach a settlement in the southern province of Daraa that borders Jordan. The negotiations are focusing the pullout of Iranian militias from the area and a return of state authority in the South. The opposition is demanded to agree to an acceptable settlement. Talks are also focusing on the situation in Sweida and countering terrorism and drugs smuggling and their impact on Jordan.

The next stop for Jordanian officials is Iraq, which is hosting on Saturday a summit for regional countries at the initiative of Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi.

Syrian president Bashar Assad will not attend the event, but the war-torn country will be a main topic of discussions.

Kadhimi had dispatched an envoy to Assad to brief him about the summit and to discuss what Damascus can offer Baghdad so that a future summit could tackle the possibility of Syria returning to the Arab fold after its membership in the Arab League was suspended nine years ago.

It is evident that American opposition to such political moves and initiatives is not as unyielding as it was under the term of President Donald Trump. However, it is also clear that the Biden administration is not open to broader and deeper political initiatives.

As it stands, it is only limiting its interest to the ties between the Kurds in Qamishli with the Damascus government, preventing the resurgence of ISIS, providing the green light and intelligence for Israeli strikes on Iranian and Hezbollah positions in Syria, and maintaining pressure on the regime, through sanctions and continued isolation, in the hopes it changes its behavior.

Amid the above, several proposed projects will in all likelihood pass through Syria without actually engaging Damascus.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.