Turkish Lira at New Low on Ankara-West Tensions

Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation. (Getty Images)
Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation. (Getty Images)
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Turkish Lira at New Low on Ankara-West Tensions

Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation. (Getty Images)
Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation. (Getty Images)

Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation.

The lira fell more than 2%, closing in on 10 to the dollar - a level it has never hit - after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he had ordered the expulsion of the ambassadors of the United States and nine other Western countries for demanding the release of philanthropist Osman Kavala.

Kavala has been charged with financing nationwide protests in 2013 and for involvement in a failed coup in 2016.

Lira volatility gauges jumped, dollar bonds fell, local 10-year yields moved closed to three-year highs hit last week, flirting with the 20% level.

Turkey's tension with NATO allies over Kavala comes amid heightening worries about government interventions in monetary policy, taking 2021 losses for the lira to about 24%, the worst performance among emerging market peers by a significant margin.

"If politicians make foreigners the bogeyman, it is easier to sell the pressures created by the weak lira as the price to be paid for political autonomy. That also means: a monetary policy U-turn seems less likely now. And that is bad news for the lira," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank.

Turkey's state lenders Ziraat Bank, Vakifbank and Halkbank lowered their loan rates by up to 200 basis points according to the products and maturities, they said in a joint statement on Monday, following last week's central bank policy easing.



Oil Climbs $1 as Price Drop Triggers Buying; Oversupply Worries Weigh

FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo
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Oil Climbs $1 as Price Drop Triggers Buying; Oversupply Worries Weigh

FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo

Oil gained more than $1 per barrel on Tuesday, rebounding on technical factors and bargain hunting after a decision by OPEC+ to boost output sent prices down the previous session, although concerns about the market surplus outlook persisted.

Brent crude futures rose $1.15 to $61.38 a barrel by 0623 GMT, the first time gain after six consecutive declines, while US West Texas Intermediate crude added $1.11 to $58.24 a barrel.

Both benchmarks had settled at their lowest since February 2021 on Monday, driven by an OPEC+ decision over the weekend to further speed up oil production hikes for a second consecutive month.

"Today’s slight rebound in oil prices appears more technical than fundamental," said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG. "Persistent headwinds including a pivotal shift in OPEC+ production strategy, uncertain demand amid US tariff risks, and price forecast downgrades are continuing to weigh on the broader price movement."

Driven by expectations that production will exceed consumption, oil has lost over 10% in six straight sessions and dipped over 20% since April when US President Donald Trump's tariff shocks prompted increased bets on a slowdown in the global economy.

The return of Chinese market participants after a five-day public holiday since May 1 was seen supporting prices on Tuesday.

"China also reopened today, and being the largest importer, buyers would have likely jumped to secure oil at current low levels," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

Also lending some support was data showing a pick-up in services sector's growth in the US, the world's major oil consumer, as orders increased.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) increased to 51.6 last month from 50.8 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI dipping to 50.2.

The US Federal Reserve will likely leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday as tariffs roil the economic outlook.

Barclays lowered its Brent crude forecast on Monday by $4 to $70 a barrel for 2025 and set its 2026 estimate at $62 a barrel, citing "a rocky road ahead for fundamentals" amid escalating trade tensions and OPEC+'s pivot in its production strategy.

Goldman Sachs also lowered its oil price forecast on Monday by $2-3 per barrel, as they now expect another 400,000 barrels per day production increase by OPEC+ in July.